Intrinsic value of Alkermes - ALKS

Previous Close

$57.62

  Intrinsic Value

$1.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$57.62

 
Intrinsic value

$1.79

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.79
  20.60
  19.04
  17.64
  16.37
  15.24
  14.21
  13.29
  12.46
  11.72
  11.04
  10.44
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  746
  900
  1,071
  1,260
  1,466
  1,689
  1,930
  2,186
  2,458
  2,746
  3,050
  3,368
  3,701
  4,050
  4,413
  4,791
  5,184
  5,593
  6,018
  6,460
  6,919
  7,397
  7,893
  8,409
  8,945
  9,504
  10,086
  10,691
  11,323
  11,982
  12,669
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  769
  914
  1,073
  1,247
  1,436
  1,639
  1,855
  2,086
  2,329
  2,585
  2,845
  3,126
  3,420
  3,727
  4,046
  4,378
  4,724
  5,083
  5,456
  5,844
  6,247
  6,666
  7,101
  7,555
  8,026
  8,518
  9,029
  9,563
  10,119
  10,699
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  331
  339
  348
  357
  365
  375
  384
  394
  403
  413
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
  479
  491
  504
  516
  529
  543
  556
  570
  584
  599
  614
  629
  645
  661
  678
Total operating expenses, $m
  954
  1,100
  1,253
  1,421
  1,604
  1,801
  2,014
  2,239
  2,480
  2,732
  2,998
  3,269
  3,560
  3,865
  4,183
  4,514
  4,857
  5,215
  5,587
  5,972
  6,373
  6,790
  7,222
  7,671
  8,139
  8,625
  9,132
  9,658
  10,208
  10,780
  11,377
Operating income, $m
  -209
  -201
  -182
  -161
  -138
  -112
  -84
  -53
  -21
  14
  51
  100
  141
  184
  230
  277
  326
  378
  432
  488
  546
  607
  671
  737
  806
  879
  954
  1,033
  1,115
  1,202
  1,292
EBITDA, $m
  -115
  -93
  -56
  -15
  31
  81
  135
  194
  256
  322
  392
  466
  544
  625
  710
  798
  891
  987
  1,087
  1,191
  1,299
  1,412
  1,530
  1,652
  1,780
  1,913
  2,051
  2,196
  2,347
  2,505
  2,670
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  11
  15
  19
  24
  30
  35
  42
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
  160
  172
  185
  198
  211
  225
  240
  255
  271
  287
  305
Earnings before tax, $m
  -214
  -211
  -197
  -180
  -162
  -142
  -119
  -95
  -69
  -41
  -12
  29
  62
  96
  133
  170
  210
  251
  294
  339
  386
  435
  486
  540
  595
  653
  714
  778
  845
  914
  987
Tax expense, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  8
  17
  26
  36
  46
  57
  68
  79
  92
  104
  118
  131
  146
  161
  176
  193
  210
  228
  247
  267
Net income, $m
  -208
  -211
  -197
  -180
  -162
  -142
  -119
  -95
  -69
  -41
  -12
  21
  45
  70
  97
  124
  153
  183
  215
  248
  282
  318
  355
  394
  435
  477
  521
  568
  617
  667
  721

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  497
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,726
  1,482
  1,764
  2,076
  2,415
  2,783
  3,179
  3,601
  4,050
  4,525
  5,024
  5,549
  6,098
  6,672
  7,270
  7,893
  8,541
  9,215
  9,915
  10,643
  11,399
  12,186
  13,003
  13,853
  14,737
  15,657
  16,615
  17,614
  18,654
  19,739
  20,871
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,229
  1,482
  1,764
  2,076
  2,415
  2,783
  3,179
  3,601
  4,050
  4,525
  5,024
  5,549
  6,098
  6,672
  7,270
  7,893
  8,541
  9,215
  9,915
  10,643
  11,399
  12,186
  13,003
  13,853
  14,737
  15,657
  16,615
  17,614
  18,654
  19,739
  20,871
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
Average production assets, $m
  609
  734
  874
  1,028
  1,196
  1,379
  1,575
  1,784
  2,006
  2,241
  2,489
  2,748
  3,020
  3,304
  3,601
  3,909
  4,230
  4,564
  4,911
  5,272
  5,646
  6,036
  6,440
  6,861
  7,299
  7,755
  8,230
  8,724
  9,240
  9,777
  10,338
Working capital, $m
  579
  103
  122
  144
  167
  193
  220
  249
  280
  313
  348
  384
  422
  462
  503
  546
  591
  638
  686
  736
  789
  843
  900
  959
  1,020
  1,083
  1,150
  1,219
  1,291
  1,366
  1,444
Total debt, $m
  284
  387
  505
  635
  777
  930
  1,096
  1,272
  1,460
  1,658
  1,867
  2,086
  2,316
  2,556
  2,806
  3,066
  3,337
  3,619
  3,911
  4,216
  4,532
  4,861
  5,202
  5,557
  5,927
  6,312
  6,712
  7,129
  7,564
  8,018
  8,491
Total liabilities, $m
  517
  620
  738
  868
  1,010
  1,163
  1,329
  1,505
  1,693
  1,891
  2,100
  2,319
  2,549
  2,789
  3,039
  3,299
  3,570
  3,852
  4,144
  4,449
  4,765
  5,094
  5,435
  5,790
  6,160
  6,545
  6,945
  7,362
  7,797
  8,251
  8,724
Total equity, $m
  1,209
  863
  1,027
  1,208
  1,406
  1,620
  1,850
  2,096
  2,357
  2,633
  2,924
  3,229
  3,549
  3,883
  4,231
  4,593
  4,971
  5,363
  5,771
  6,194
  6,634
  7,092
  7,568
  8,062
  8,577
  9,112
  9,670
  10,251
  10,857
  11,488
  12,147
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,726
  1,483
  1,765
  2,076
  2,416
  2,783
  3,179
  3,601
  4,050
  4,524
  5,024
  5,548
  6,098
  6,672
  7,270
  7,892
  8,541
  9,215
  9,915
  10,643
  11,399
  12,186
  13,003
  13,852
  14,737
  15,657
  16,615
  17,613
  18,654
  19,739
  20,871
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.235
  0.450
  0.490
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.579
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582
  0.582

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -208
  -211
  -197
  -180
  -162
  -142
  -119
  -95
  -69
  -41
  -12
  21
  45
  70
  97
  124
  153
  183
  215
  248
  282
  318
  355
  394
  435
  477
  521
  568
  617
  667
  721
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  94
  107
  126
  146
  169
  193
  219
  247
  277
  308
  341
  366
  403
  441
  480
  521
  564
  609
  655
  703
  753
  805
  859
  915
  973
  1,034
  1,097
  1,163
  1,232
  1,304
  1,378
Funds from operations, $m
  -99
  -104
  -71
  -34
  7
  52
  100
  152
  208
  267
  329
  388
  448
  511
  577
  646
  717
  792
  870
  951
  1,035
  1,122
  1,214
  1,309
  1,408
  1,511
  1,619
  1,731
  1,848
  1,971
  2,099
Change in working capital, $m
  -35
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
Cash from operations, $m
  -64
  -122
  -91
  -56
  -17
  26
  73
  123
  177
  234
  295
  351
  410
  471
  535
  603
  672
  745
  821
  900
  982
  1,068
  1,157
  1,250
  1,347
  1,447
  1,552
  1,662
  1,776
  1,896
  2,021
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -81
  -98
  -117
  -137
  -160
  -184
  -210
  -238
  -267
  -299
  -332
  -366
  -403
  -441
  -480
  -521
  -564
  -609
  -655
  -703
  -753
  -805
  -859
  -915
  -973
  -1,034
  -1,097
  -1,163
  -1,232
  -1,304
New CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -126
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -182
  -196
  -209
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -296
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -361
  -375
  -389
  -405
  -421
  -438
  -456
  -475
  -494
  -515
  -537
  -561
Cash from investing activities, $m
  127
  -207
  -238
  -271
  -305
  -342
  -380
  -419
  -460
  -502
  -547
  -592
  -638
  -687
  -737
  -789
  -842
  -898
  -956
  -1,016
  -1,078
  -1,142
  -1,210
  -1,280
  -1,353
  -1,429
  -1,509
  -1,591
  -1,678
  -1,769
  -1,865
Free cash flow, $m
  63
  -328
  -328
  -326
  -322
  -316
  -307
  -296
  -283
  -268
  -251
  -240
  -229
  -216
  -201
  -186
  -170
  -152
  -134
  -115
  -95
  -74
  -52
  -30
  -6
  18
  44
  70
  98
  127
  157
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -66
  106
  118
  130
  142
  154
  165
  177
  188
  198
  209
  219
  230
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
  342
  355
  370
  385
  401
  417
  435
  454
  473
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  359
  361
  362
  360
  356
  349
  341
  330
  317
  302
  284
  274
  264
  251
  238
  224
  209
  193
  176
  158
  140
  121
  101
  80
  59
  36
  13
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -58
  465
  479
  492
  502
  510
  514
  518
  518
  515
  511
  503
  504
  504
  501
  498
  495
  491
  486
  480
  474
  469
  463
  456
  450
  444
  437
  430
  435
  454
  473
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  136
  151
  165
  180
  194
  208
  221
  234
  247
  260
  263
  275
  288
  300
  312
  325
  338
  351
  365
  379
  394
  410
  426
  443
  462
  481
  501
  533
  580
  630
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  105
  -359
  -361
  -362
  -360
  -356
  -349
  -341
  -330
  -317
  -302
  -305
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -377
  -392
  -408
  -424
  -440
  -458
  -476
  -495
  -515
  -536
  -558
  -581
  -606
  -631
  -659
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  494
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  271
  -210
  -196
  -180
  -162
  -142
  -120
  -96
  -70
  -43
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -73
  -51
  -29
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  260
  -192
  -171
  -148
  -125
  -103
  -81
  -60
  -40
  -22
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.7
  88.7
  84.6
  81.4
  78.7
  76.5
  74.6
  73.1
  71.8
  70.7
  69.8
  69.0
  68.3
  67.7
  67.2
  66.7
  66.4
  66.0
  65.8
  65.6
  65.4
  65.2
  65.1
  65.0
  65.0
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9
  64.9

Alkermes plc is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the researching, developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products that are designed to address medical needs of patients in therapeutic areas. The Company has a portfolio of marketed drug products and a clinical pipeline of products that address central nervous system (CNS) disorders, such as schizophrenia, depression, addiction and multiple sclerosis (MS). The Company's products include ARISTADA, VIVITROL, INVEGA SUSTENNA, XEPLION, INVEGA TRINZA, TREVICTA, RISPERDAL CONSTA, AMPYRA, FAMPYRA, BYDUREON, Aripiprazole lauroxil, ALKS 5461, ALKS 3831, ALKS 8700, ALKS 6428, ALKS 4230 and ALKS 7119. The Company's product platforms include injectable extended-release microsphere technology, LinkeRx technology, NanoCrystal technology and oral controlled release (OCR) technology. ARISTADA is an extended-release intramuscular injectable suspension for the treatment of schizophrenia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alkermes (ALKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -42.2
Price to Sales 11.8
Price to Book 7.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -137.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -81.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 166
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 23.2%
Total Debt to Equity 23.5%
Interest Coverage -17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -11%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Return On Total Capital -13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Return On Equity -16.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 77.2%
EBITDA Margin -14.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.3%
Operating Margin -27.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -28.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.2%
Net Profit Margin -27.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23%
Effective Tax Rate 2.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

ALKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $746 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alkermes. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alkermes. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alkermes, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alkermes.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $323 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Alkermes.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alkermes. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALKS are equal to 81.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alkermes operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALKS is equal to 11.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1209 million for Alkermes - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 155.673 million for Alkermes is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alkermes at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.0 billion.

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Financial statements of ALKS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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