Intrinsic value of American Lorain - ALN

Previous Close

$0.43

  Intrinsic Value

$1.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+190%

  Value-price divergence*

+57%

Previous close

$0.43

 
Intrinsic value

$1.25

 
Up/down potential

+190%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+57%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.38
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  215
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  388
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  612
  642
  673
  705
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  206
  211
  216
  222
  229
  236
  245
  253
  263
  273
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  416
  435
  455
  477
  499
  523
  548
  574
  602
  631
  662
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  208
  206
  211
  216
  222
  229
  236
  245
  253
  263
  273
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  416
  435
  455
  477
  499
  523
  548
  574
  602
  631
  662
Operating income, $m
  7
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
EBITDA, $m
  12
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
Tax expense, $m
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Net income, $m
  4
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  310
  292
  298
  306
  315
  324
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  417
  435
  453
  473
  493
  515
  539
  563
  589
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  776
  814
  853
  894
  938
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  286
  292
  298
  306
  315
  324
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  417
  435
  453
  473
  493
  515
  539
  563
  589
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  776
  814
  853
  894
  938
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.752
  0.750
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.753
  0.752
  0.751
  0.751
  0.750
  0.751
  0.753
  0.753
  0.752
  0.753
  0.751
  0.753
  0.753
  0.751
  0.751
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.753
  0.752
  0.752
  0.753
  0.752
  0.753
  0.753
  0.752
Average production assets, $m
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  80
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
Working capital, $m
  94
  110
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  353
Total debt, $m
  73
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  165
  174
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
Total liabilities, $m
  115
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  198
  208
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  288
  302
Total equity, $m
  194
  198
  202
  207
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  321
  335
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  437
  458
  480
  502
  526
  552
  578
  606
  636
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  309
  292
  298
  306
  314
  324
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  417
  435
  453
  473
  494
  515
  538
  563
  589
  616
  645
  675
  708
  741
  776
  814
  853
  894
  938
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.376
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678
  0.678

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  34
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -32
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -32
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  17
  18
  18
  20
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -10
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.4
  99.0
  98.4
  97.8
  97.1
  96.3
  95.4
  94.5
  93.5
  92.4
  91.4
  90.3
  89.1
  88.0
  86.8
  85.6

American Lorain Corporation, through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells various food products in the People’s Republic of China. It offers chestnut products, including frozen chestnuts and aerated open-bottom chestnuts; and frozen food products, such as frozen vegetables and frozen fruits The company also provides convenience foods comprising ready-to-cook food products, ready-to-eat food products, and meals ready-to- eat products consisting of meal kits with self-heating devices or microwavable kits, such as microwavable rice boxes for military use, as well as for camping, traveling, and other occasions. The company markets and sells its products to supermarket chains, mass merchandisers, wholesalers, and others, as well as to third-party distributors. It also exports its products to the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North America. The company was formerly known as Millennium Quest, Inc. American Lorain Corporation is headquartered in Junan County, the People’s Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Lorain (ALN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 4.1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 5.7%
Total Debt to Equity 37.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Effective Tax Rate 133.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ALN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $215 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Lorain. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of American Lorain. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for ALN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Lorain, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Lorain.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for American Lorain.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Lorain. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALN are equal to 28.8%.

Life of production assets of 13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Lorain operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALN is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $194 million for American Lorain - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.288 million for American Lorain is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Lorain at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ American Lorain Receives NYSE MKT Notice   [Apr-24-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Watchlist Wednesday: Top 5 NCAV Stocks   [Sep-07-16 05:58PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ American Lorain Corp. Earnings Q2, 2015   [Sep-10  11:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ American Lorain, More Questions Than Answers   [May-27  09:58AM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ The Best Of NCAV   [Feb-25  02:24PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ American Lorain develops new chestnut cultivar by grafting   [Feb-05  09:02AM  at theflyonthewall.com]
▶ American Lorain, An Undervalued Opportunity   [Jan-27  06:35AM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ AMERICAN LORAIN CORP Files SEC form 10-K, Annual Report   [Apr-01  08:09AM  EDGAR Online]
▶ [$$] Tide Turns After a Flood of Chinese Listings   [Dec-05-12 12:36AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Small-Cap Chinese Companies Fight Off American Distrust   [Oct-22-12 11:08AM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ An Exodus Of U.S.-Listed China Stocks Is Inevitable   [Oct-16-12 03:29PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ U.S.-Listed China Space Wake-Up Call   [Oct-09-12 10:34AM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ China's Leveraged Buyout Spree Not Ending   [Aug-26-12 05:38AM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ Consumer/Non-Cyclical Sector Wrap   [Jul-23-12 05:44PM  at Fox Business]
▶ Consumer/Non-Cyclical Sector Wrap   [Apr-25-12 06:56PM  at Fox Business]
▶ 5 Small-Cap Chinese Companies Paying Dividends   [Mar-28-12 04:15AM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ 2 U.S.-Listed China Stocks To Buy Now   [Mar-16-12 04:39PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ 5 Speculative Chinese Small Caps For A Skeptical Market   [Mar-02-12 03:31PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ Chinese Food Companies Are Ideal Speculative Investments   [Jan-24-12 01:56PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ Invitation 2012 IR Global Rankings   [Jan-12-12 12:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ How To Benefit From China In 2012   [Jan-04-12 10:57AM  at Seeking Alpha]
Stock chart of ALN Financial statements of ALN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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