Intrinsic value of Allison Transmission Holdings - ALSN

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$36.27

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$36.27

 
Intrinsic value

$23.64

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALSN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.35
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,840
  1,877
  1,920
  1,969
  2,025
  2,086
  2,153
  2,227
  2,306
  2,392
  2,483
  2,582
  2,686
  2,798
  2,917
  3,042
  3,176
  3,317
  3,466
  3,624
  3,790
  3,966
  4,151
  4,347
  4,552
  4,769
  4,997
  5,237
  5,490
  5,756
  6,036
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,468
  1,497
  1,530
  1,568
  1,610
  1,655
  1,705
  1,759
  1,817
  1,879
  1,752
  1,823
  1,898
  1,979
  2,064
  2,155
  2,251
  2,352
  2,459
  2,572
  2,691
  2,817
  2,949
  3,089
  3,236
  3,391
  3,554
  3,725
  3,906
  4,095
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,390
  1,468
  1,497
  1,530
  1,568
  1,610
  1,655
  1,705
  1,759
  1,817
  1,879
  1,752
  1,823
  1,898
  1,979
  2,064
  2,155
  2,251
  2,352
  2,459
  2,572
  2,691
  2,817
  2,949
  3,089
  3,236
  3,391
  3,554
  3,725
  3,906
  4,095
Operating income, $m
  451
  409
  423
  439
  457
  477
  498
  522
  547
  575
  604
  830
  864
  900
  938
  978
  1,021
  1,066
  1,114
  1,165
  1,219
  1,275
  1,335
  1,397
  1,464
  1,533
  1,607
  1,684
  1,765
  1,851
  1,940
EBITDA, $m
  627
  689
  705
  723
  743
  766
  790
  817
  847
  878
  912
  948
  986
  1,027
  1,071
  1,117
  1,166
  1,217
  1,272
  1,330
  1,391
  1,456
  1,524
  1,595
  1,671
  1,751
  1,834
  1,922
  2,015
  2,113
  2,215
Interest expense (income), $m
  78
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  126
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  202
  213
  224
  237
  250
  263
  277
  293
  308
Earnings before tax, $m
  341
  334
  346
  359
  374
  390
  408
  428
  449
  472
  496
  716
  744
  774
  805
  839
  874
  912
  951
  993
  1,037
  1,084
  1,133
  1,185
  1,239
  1,296
  1,357
  1,421
  1,488
  1,558
  1,632
Tax expense, $m
  126
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  134
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  335
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
Net income, $m
  215
  244
  252
  262
  273
  285
  298
  312
  328
  344
  362
  523
  543
  565
  588
  612
  638
  665
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  905
  946
  991
  1,037
  1,086
  1,137
  1,191

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  205
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,219
  4,098
  4,192
  4,300
  4,421
  4,555
  4,702
  4,862
  5,035
  5,222
  5,422
  5,637
  5,866
  6,109
  6,368
  6,643
  6,934
  7,242
  7,568
  7,912
  8,276
  8,659
  9,064
  9,490
  9,940
  10,413
  10,911
  11,435
  11,987
  12,568
  13,178
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,014
  4,098
  4,192
  4,300
  4,421
  4,555
  4,702
  4,862
  5,035
  5,222
  5,422
  5,637
  5,866
  6,109
  6,368
  6,643
  6,934
  7,242
  7,568
  7,912
  8,276
  8,659
  9,064
  9,490
  9,940
  10,413
  10,911
  11,435
  11,987
  12,568
  13,178
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
Average production assets, $m
  1,761
  1,796
  1,837
  1,885
  1,938
  1,996
  2,061
  2,131
  2,207
  2,289
  2,377
  2,471
  2,571
  2,678
  2,791
  2,912
  3,039
  3,174
  3,317
  3,468
  3,627
  3,795
  3,973
  4,160
  4,357
  4,564
  4,782
  5,012
  5,254
  5,509
  5,776
Working capital, $m
  206
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Total debt, $m
  2,159
  2,212
  2,286
  2,370
  2,464
  2,568
  2,683
  2,807
  2,942
  3,088
  3,244
  3,411
  3,589
  3,779
  3,981
  4,195
  4,421
  4,662
  4,915
  5,184
  5,467
  5,766
  6,081
  6,413
  6,763
  7,132
  7,520
  7,928
  8,358
  8,810
  9,286
Total liabilities, $m
  3,138
  3,192
  3,266
  3,350
  3,444
  3,548
  3,663
  3,787
  3,922
  4,068
  4,224
  4,391
  4,569
  4,759
  4,961
  5,175
  5,401
  5,642
  5,895
  6,164
  6,447
  6,746
  7,061
  7,393
  7,743
  8,112
  8,500
  8,908
  9,338
  9,790
  10,266
Total equity, $m
  1,080
  906
  926
  950
  977
  1,007
  1,039
  1,074
  1,113
  1,154
  1,198
  1,246
  1,296
  1,350
  1,407
  1,468
  1,532
  1,600
  1,673
  1,749
  1,829
  1,914
  2,003
  2,097
  2,197
  2,301
  2,411
  2,527
  2,649
  2,777
  2,912
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,218
  4,098
  4,192
  4,300
  4,421
  4,555
  4,702
  4,861
  5,035
  5,222
  5,422
  5,637
  5,865
  6,109
  6,368
  6,643
  6,933
  7,242
  7,568
  7,913
  8,276
  8,660
  9,064
  9,490
  9,940
  10,413
  10,911
  11,435
  11,987
  12,567
  13,178
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.999
  2.440
  2.470
  2.490
  2.520
  2.550
  2.580
  2.610
  2.640
  2.680
  2.710
  2.740
  2.770
  2.800
  2.830
  2.860
  2.890
  2.910
  2.940
  2.960
  2.990
  3.010
  3.040
  3.060
  3.080
  3.100
  3.120
  3.140
  3.150
  3.170
  3.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.218
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  244
  252
  262
  273
  285
  298
  312
  328
  344
  362
  523
  543
  565
  588
  612
  638
  665
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  905
  946
  991
  1,037
  1,086
  1,137
  1,191
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  176
  280
  282
  284
  286
  289
  292
  296
  299
  303
  307
  118
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
Funds from operations, $m
  656
  524
  534
  546
  559
  574
  590
  608
  627
  648
  670
  641
  666
  692
  721
  751
  783
  817
  852
  890
  930
  972
  1,016
  1,063
  1,112
  1,164
  1,218
  1,276
  1,336
  1,400
  1,466
Change in working capital, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  591
  469
  534
  546
  559
  574
  590
  607
  626
  647
  669
  640
  665
  692
  720
  750
  782
  816
  851
  889
  929
  971
  1,015
  1,061
  1,111
  1,162
  1,217
  1,274
  1,334
  1,398
  1,464
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -84
  -86
  -87
  -90
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -268
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -71
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -414
  -435
  -458
  -481
  -504
  -530
Free cash flow, $m
  520
  349
  407
  411
  416
  423
  430
  439
  449
  460
  472
  433
  447
  462
  479
  497
  516
  536
  557
  580
  604
  630
  657
  685
  716
  747
  781
  816
  854
  893
  935
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -215
  65
  73
  84
  94
  104
  115
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  430
  452
  476
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -233
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -464
  65
  73
  84
  94
  104
  115
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  430
  452
  476
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  415
  480
  495
  510
  527
  545
  564
  584
  605
  628
  600
  625
  652
  681
  711
  742
  776
  811
  848
  887
  929
  972
  1,018
  1,066
  1,116
  1,169
  1,225
  1,284
  1,345
  1,410
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  109
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  193
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  589
  459
  471
  484
  497
  512
  528
  546
  564
  584
  552
  575
  598
  623
  650
  678
  708
  739
  772
  807
  844
  883
  923
  966
  1,011
  1,059
  1,109
  1,162
  1,217
  1,275
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  544
  389
  362
  335
  308
  280
  253
  226
  199
  174
  137
  117
  98
  81
  66
  53
  42
  32
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells commercial and defense fully-automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. It offers 13 transmission product lines with approximately 100 product models for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school, transit, and hybrid-transit buses; motor homes; energy, mining, and construction off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles. The company markets its transmissions under Allison Transmission brand name; and remanufactured transmissions under ReTran brand name. It also sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, and other products necessary to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its transmissions, as well as defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage services to various original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government. The company serves customers through an independent network of approximately 1,400 independent distributor and dealer locations worldwide. The company was formerly known as Clutch Holdings, Inc. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.6
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 17
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 198.8%
Total Debt to Equity 199.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 19%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.6%
EBITDA Margin 32.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Operating Margin 24.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 47%

ALSN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALSN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1840 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allison Transmission Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Allison Transmission Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALSN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for ALSN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allison Transmission Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allison Transmission Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALSN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALSN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Allison Transmission Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allison Transmission Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALSN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALSN are equal to 95.7%.

Life of production assets of 21 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allison Transmission Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALSN is equal to 0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1080 million for Allison Transmission Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 159.795 million for Allison Transmission Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allison Transmission Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.


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Stock chart of ALSN Financial statements of ALSN Annual reports of ALSN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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