Intrinsic value of Allison Transmission Holdings - ALSN

Previous Close

$37.00

  Intrinsic Value

$31.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-15%

  Value-price divergence*

-43%

Previous close

$37.00

 
Intrinsic value

$31.43

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-43%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALSN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.35
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  1,840
  1,987
  2,140
  2,299
  2,464
  2,636
  2,815
  3,000
  3,193
  3,394
  3,603
  3,821
  4,048
  4,285
  4,532
  4,790
  5,059
  5,340
  5,634
  5,941
  6,262
  6,598
  6,949
  7,317
  7,703
  8,106
  8,529
  8,972
  9,436
  9,923
  10,433
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,542
  1,646
  1,754
  1,866
  1,983
  2,104
  2,230
  2,361
  2,497
  2,639
  2,593
  2,747
  2,907
  3,075
  3,250
  3,432
  3,623
  3,822
  4,031
  4,249
  4,477
  4,715
  4,965
  5,226
  5,500
  5,787
  6,087
  6,402
  6,733
  7,079
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,390
  1,542
  1,646
  1,754
  1,866
  1,983
  2,104
  2,230
  2,361
  2,497
  2,639
  2,593
  2,747
  2,907
  3,075
  3,250
  3,432
  3,623
  3,822
  4,031
  4,249
  4,477
  4,715
  4,965
  5,226
  5,500
  5,787
  6,087
  6,402
  6,733
  7,079
Operating income, $m
  451
  445
  494
  545
  598
  653
  711
  770
  833
  897
  964
  1,229
  1,302
  1,378
  1,457
  1,540
  1,626
  1,717
  1,811
  1,910
  2,013
  2,121
  2,234
  2,352
  2,476
  2,606
  2,742
  2,884
  3,034
  3,190
  3,354
EBITDA, $m
  627
  729
  786
  844
  905
  968
  1,033
  1,101
  1,172
  1,246
  1,323
  1,403
  1,486
  1,573
  1,664
  1,758
  1,857
  1,960
  2,068
  2,181
  2,298
  2,422
  2,551
  2,686
  2,827
  2,975
  3,131
  3,293
  3,464
  3,642
  3,829
Interest expense (income), $m
  78
  75
  84
  93
  103
  112
  123
  133
  144
  156
  168
  180
  193
  207
  221
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  358
  379
  401
  424
  448
  473
  500
  527
  556
Earnings before tax, $m
  341
  370
  410
  452
  496
  541
  588
  637
  688
  741
  797
  1,048
  1,108
  1,171
  1,236
  1,304
  1,376
  1,450
  1,528
  1,609
  1,694
  1,783
  1,876
  1,973
  2,075
  2,182
  2,294
  2,411
  2,534
  2,663
  2,798
Tax expense, $m
  126
  100
  111
  122
  134
  146
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  283
  299
  316
  334
  352
  371
  391
  412
  434
  457
  481
  506
  533
  560
  589
  619
  651
  684
  719
  755
Net income, $m
  215
  270
  299
  330
  362
  395
  429
  465
  502
  541
  582
  765
  809
  855
  902
  952
  1,004
  1,058
  1,115
  1,174
  1,236
  1,301
  1,369
  1,440
  1,515
  1,593
  1,674
  1,760
  1,850
  1,944
  2,042

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  205
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,219
  4,339
  4,673
  5,020
  5,381
  5,756
  6,146
  6,551
  6,972
  7,411
  7,868
  8,344
  8,839
  9,356
  9,895
  10,458
  11,045
  11,659
  12,300
  12,971
  13,672
  14,405
  15,173
  15,976
  16,818
  17,699
  18,622
  19,589
  20,603
  21,665
  22,779
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,014
  4,339
  4,673
  5,020
  5,381
  5,756
  6,146
  6,551
  6,972
  7,411
  7,868
  8,344
  8,839
  9,356
  9,895
  10,458
  11,045
  11,659
  12,300
  12,971
  13,672
  14,405
  15,173
  15,976
  16,818
  17,699
  18,622
  19,589
  20,603
  21,665
  22,779
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
Average production assets, $m
  1,761
  1,902
  2,048
  2,200
  2,359
  2,523
  2,694
  2,871
  3,056
  3,248
  3,449
  3,657
  3,874
  4,101
  4,337
  4,584
  4,841
  5,110
  5,391
  5,685
  5,992
  6,314
  6,650
  7,003
  7,371
  7,758
  8,162
  8,586
  9,030
  9,496
  9,984
Working capital, $m
  206
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Total debt, $m
  2,159
  2,400
  2,660
  2,931
  3,212
  3,504
  3,807
  4,123
  4,452
  4,793
  5,149
  5,520
  5,906
  6,308
  6,728
  7,167
  7,624
  8,102
  8,602
  9,124
  9,670
  10,242
  10,840
  11,466
  12,121
  12,807
  13,526
  14,280
  15,070
  15,897
  16,765
Total liabilities, $m
  3,138
  3,380
  3,640
  3,911
  4,192
  4,484
  4,787
  5,103
  5,432
  5,773
  6,129
  6,500
  6,886
  7,288
  7,708
  8,147
  8,604
  9,082
  9,582
  10,104
  10,650
  11,222
  11,820
  12,446
  13,101
  13,787
  14,506
  15,260
  16,050
  16,877
  17,745
Total equity, $m
  1,080
  959
  1,033
  1,109
  1,189
  1,272
  1,358
  1,448
  1,541
  1,638
  1,739
  1,844
  1,953
  2,068
  2,187
  2,311
  2,441
  2,577
  2,718
  2,867
  3,021
  3,184
  3,353
  3,531
  3,717
  3,911
  4,115
  4,329
  4,553
  4,788
  5,034
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,218
  4,339
  4,673
  5,020
  5,381
  5,756
  6,145
  6,551
  6,973
  7,411
  7,868
  8,344
  8,839
  9,356
  9,895
  10,458
  11,045
  11,659
  12,300
  12,971
  13,671
  14,406
  15,173
  15,977
  16,818
  17,698
  18,621
  19,589
  20,603
  21,665
  22,779
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.999
  2.500
  2.580
  2.640
  2.700
  2.750
  2.800
  2.850
  2.890
  2.930
  2.960
  2.990
  3.020
  3.050
  3.080
  3.100
  3.120
  3.140
  3.160
  3.180
  3.200
  3.220
  3.230
  3.250
  3.260
  3.270
  3.290
  3.300
  3.310
  3.320
  3.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.218
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  270
  299
  330
  362
  395
  429
  465
  502
  541
  582
  765
  809
  855
  902
  952
  1,004
  1,058
  1,115
  1,174
  1,236
  1,301
  1,369
  1,440
  1,515
  1,593
  1,674
  1,760
  1,850
  1,944
  2,042
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  176
  285
  292
  299
  306
  314
  322
  331
  340
  349
  358
  174
  184
  195
  207
  218
  231
  243
  257
  271
  285
  301
  317
  333
  351
  369
  389
  409
  430
  452
  475
Funds from operations, $m
  656
  554
  591
  629
  668
  709
  752
  796
  842
  890
  940
  939
  994
  1,050
  1,109
  1,170
  1,235
  1,302
  1,372
  1,445
  1,522
  1,602
  1,686
  1,774
  1,866
  1,962
  2,063
  2,169
  2,280
  2,396
  2,518
Change in working capital, $m
  65
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  591
  553
  590
  628
  667
  708
  750
  795
  841
  889
  938
  938
  992
  1,048
  1,107
  1,169
  1,233
  1,300
  1,370
  1,443
  1,520
  1,600
  1,683
  1,771
  1,863
  1,959
  2,060
  2,166
  2,276
  2,392
  2,514
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -218
  -231
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -351
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -430
  -452
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -488
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -71
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -372
  -391
  -411
  -431
  -454
  -476
  -500
  -524
  -551
  -578
  -606
  -637
  -669
  -702
  -737
  -774
  -813
  -853
  -896
  -940
Free cash flow, $m
  520
  328
  353
  378
  404
  431
  460
  489
  519
  551
  584
  565
  601
  637
  676
  715
  757
  800
  845
  892
  942
  993
  1,046
  1,102
  1,161
  1,222
  1,286
  1,353
  1,423
  1,497
  1,574
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -215
  253
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  328
  342
  356
  371
  386
  403
  420
  438
  458
  478
  500
  522
  546
  571
  598
  626
  655
  686
  719
  753
  790
  828
  868
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -233
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -464
  253
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  328
  342
  356
  371
  386
  403
  420
  438
  458
  478
  500
  522
  546
  571
  598
  626
  655
  686
  719
  753
  790
  828
  868
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  581
  613
  648
  685
  723
  763
  804
  848
  892
  939
  936
  987
  1,040
  1,096
  1,154
  1,215
  1,278
  1,345
  1,415
  1,488
  1,564
  1,644
  1,728
  1,816
  1,908
  2,005
  2,107
  2,213
  2,324
  2,441
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  109
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  193
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  702
  539
  572
  605
  641
  677
  715
  754
  796
  838
  831
  877
  926
  976
  1,029
  1,085
  1,143
  1,203
  1,266
  1,333
  1,402
  1,475
  1,551
  1,630
  1,714
  1,801
  1,893
  1,989
  2,090
  2,195
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  649
  456
  440
  419
  396
  370
  342
  312
  281
  250
  206
  178
  152
  128
  105
  85
  67
  52
  40
  30
  21
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells commercial and defense fully-automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and medium- and heavy-tactical U.S. defense vehicles. It offers 13 transmission product lines with approximately 100 product models for various applications, including distribution, refuse, construction, fire, and emergency on-highway trucks; school, transit, and hybrid-transit buses; motor homes; energy, mining, and construction off-highway vehicles and equipment; and wheeled and tracked defense vehicles. The company markets its transmissions under Allison Transmission brand name; and remanufactured transmissions under ReTran brand name. It also sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, and other products necessary to service the installed base of vehicles utilizing its transmissions, as well as defense kits, engineering services, and extended transmission coverage services to various original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and the U.S. government. The company serves customers through an independent network of approximately 1,400 independent distributor and dealer locations worldwide. The company was formerly known as Clutch Holdings, Inc. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.2
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 5.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 17
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 198.8%
Total Debt to Equity 199.9%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 19%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.6%
EBITDA Margin 32.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Operating Margin 24.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 11.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 47%

ALSN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALSN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1840 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allison Transmission Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Allison Transmission Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALSN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for ALSN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allison Transmission Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allison Transmission Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALSN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALSN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Allison Transmission Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allison Transmission Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALSN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALSN are equal to 95.7%.

Life of production assets of 21 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allison Transmission Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALSN is equal to 0.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1080 million for Allison Transmission Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 159.795 million for Allison Transmission Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allison Transmission Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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Stock chart of ALSN Financial statements of ALSN Annual reports of ALSN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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