Intrinsic value of Autoliv - ALV

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$108.81

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$108.81

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.86
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  10,074
  10,406
  10,768
  11,158
  11,577
  12,027
  12,508
  13,020
  13,565
  14,144
  14,758
  15,409
  16,097
  16,824
  17,593
  18,404
  19,260
  20,162
  21,113
  22,115
  23,170
  24,281
  25,449
  26,679
  27,973
  29,334
  30,765
  32,269
  33,851
  35,513
  37,260
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9,016
  9,323
  9,654
  10,010
  10,391
  10,799
  11,234
  11,696
  12,187
  12,708
  13,073
  13,657
  14,274
  14,926
  15,615
  16,341
  17,106
  17,913
  18,763
  19,658
  20,600
  21,592
  22,635
  23,733
  24,888
  26,102
  27,378
  28,720
  30,130
  31,613
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  514
  526
  540
  553
  567
  581
  596
  610
  626
  641
  657
  674
  691
  708
  726
  744
  762
  781
  801
  821
  841
  863
  884
  906
  929
  952
  976
  1,000
  1,025
  1,051
Total operating expenses, $m
  9,226
  9,530
  9,849
  10,194
  10,563
  10,958
  11,380
  11,830
  12,306
  12,813
  13,349
  13,730
  14,331
  14,965
  15,634
  16,341
  17,085
  17,868
  18,694
  19,564
  20,479
  21,441
  22,455
  23,519
  24,639
  25,817
  27,054
  28,354
  29,720
  31,155
  32,664
Operating income, $m
  848
  877
  919
  965
  1,015
  1,069
  1,128
  1,191
  1,259
  1,331
  1,409
  1,678
  1,766
  1,859
  1,959
  2,064
  2,176
  2,294
  2,419
  2,551
  2,691
  2,839
  2,995
  3,160
  3,334
  3,517
  3,711
  3,915
  4,131
  4,358
  4,597
EBITDA, $m
  1,231
  1,259
  1,308
  1,361
  1,419
  1,482
  1,550
  1,623
  1,701
  1,784
  1,873
  1,968
  2,069
  2,176
  2,289
  2,410
  2,537
  2,673
  2,816
  2,967
  3,126
  3,295
  3,473
  3,661
  3,859
  4,069
  4,289
  4,522
  4,767
  5,025
  5,297
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  56
  62
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  140
  152
  164
  178
  191
  206
  222
  238
  255
  273
  292
  312
  334
  356
  379
  404
  430
  457
  485
  515
Earnings before tax, $m
  804
  821
  857
  896
  940
  986
  1,037
  1,091
  1,150
  1,212
  1,279
  1,538
  1,614
  1,695
  1,781
  1,872
  1,969
  2,072
  2,181
  2,296
  2,418
  2,546
  2,683
  2,826
  2,978
  3,138
  3,307
  3,486
  3,674
  3,872
  4,081
Tax expense, $m
  242
  222
  231
  242
  254
  266
  280
  295
  310
  327
  345
  415
  436
  458
  481
  506
  532
  559
  589
  620
  653
  688
  724
  763
  804
  847
  893
  941
  992
  1,045
  1,102
Net income, $m
  567
  599
  626
  654
  686
  720
  757
  797
  839
  885
  934
  1,123
  1,178
  1,237
  1,300
  1,367
  1,438
  1,513
  1,592
  1,676
  1,765
  1,859
  1,958
  2,063
  2,174
  2,291
  2,414
  2,545
  2,682
  2,827
  2,979

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,234
  7,237
  7,488
  7,759
  8,051
  8,364
  8,698
  9,054
  9,433
  9,836
  10,263
  10,715
  11,194
  11,700
  12,234
  12,798
  13,394
  14,021
  14,682
  15,379
  16,113
  16,885
  17,698
  18,553
  19,453
  20,399
  21,394
  22,440
  23,540
  24,696
  25,911
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,007
  7,237
  7,488
  7,759
  8,051
  8,364
  8,698
  9,054
  9,433
  9,836
  10,263
  10,715
  11,194
  11,700
  12,234
  12,798
  13,394
  14,021
  14,682
  15,379
  16,113
  16,885
  17,698
  18,553
  19,453
  20,399
  21,394
  22,440
  23,540
  24,696
  25,911
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
  1.438
Average production assets, $m
  1,718
  1,780
  1,841
  1,908
  1,980
  2,057
  2,139
  2,226
  2,320
  2,419
  2,524
  2,635
  2,753
  2,877
  3,008
  3,147
  3,293
  3,448
  3,610
  3,782
  3,962
  4,152
  4,352
  4,562
  4,783
  5,016
  5,261
  5,518
  5,788
  6,073
  6,372
Working capital, $m
  1,543
  552
  571
  591
  614
  637
  663
  690
  719
  750
  782
  817
  853
  892
  932
  975
  1,021
  1,069
  1,119
  1,172
  1,228
  1,287
  1,349
  1,414
  1,483
  1,555
  1,631
  1,710
  1,794
  1,882
  1,975
Total debt, $m
  1,543
  1,466
  1,621
  1,789
  1,970
  2,163
  2,370
  2,591
  2,825
  3,074
  3,339
  3,619
  3,915
  4,228
  4,559
  4,908
  5,277
  5,665
  6,074
  6,506
  6,960
  7,438
  7,941
  8,470
  9,027
  9,613
  10,229
  10,877
  11,557
  12,273
  13,025
Total liabilities, $m
  4,557
  4,480
  4,635
  4,803
  4,984
  5,177
  5,384
  5,605
  5,839
  6,088
  6,353
  6,633
  6,929
  7,242
  7,573
  7,922
  8,291
  8,679
  9,088
  9,520
  9,974
  10,452
  10,955
  11,484
  12,041
  12,627
  13,243
  13,891
  14,571
  15,287
  16,039
Total equity, $m
  3,677
  2,757
  2,853
  2,956
  3,067
  3,187
  3,314
  3,450
  3,594
  3,748
  3,910
  4,083
  4,265
  4,458
  4,661
  4,876
  5,103
  5,342
  5,594
  5,859
  6,139
  6,433
  6,743
  7,069
  7,411
  7,772
  8,151
  8,550
  8,969
  9,409
  9,872
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,234
  7,237
  7,488
  7,759
  8,051
  8,364
  8,698
  9,055
  9,433
  9,836
  10,263
  10,716
  11,194
  11,700
  12,234
  12,798
  13,394
  14,021
  14,682
  15,379
  16,113
  16,885
  17,698
  18,553
  19,452
  20,399
  21,394
  22,441
  23,540
  24,696
  25,911
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.420
  0.530
  0.570
  0.610
  0.640
  0.680
  0.720
  0.750
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.350
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  567
  599
  626
  654
  686
  720
  757
  797
  839
  885
  934
  1,123
  1,178
  1,237
  1,300
  1,367
  1,438
  1,513
  1,592
  1,676
  1,765
  1,859
  1,958
  2,063
  2,174
  2,291
  2,414
  2,545
  2,682
  2,827
  2,979
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  383
  383
  389
  397
  405
  413
  422
  432
  442
  453
  464
  290
  302
  316
  331
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  478
  501
  526
  551
  578
  606
  636
  667
  700
Funds from operations, $m
  790
  982
  1,015
  1,051
  1,091
  1,133
  1,179
  1,228
  1,281
  1,338
  1,398
  1,412
  1,481
  1,554
  1,631
  1,713
  1,800
  1,892
  1,989
  2,092
  2,200
  2,315
  2,436
  2,565
  2,700
  2,842
  2,992
  3,151
  3,318
  3,494
  3,680
Change in working capital, $m
  -78
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Cash from operations, $m
  868
  1,117
  996
  1,031
  1,068
  1,109
  1,154
  1,201
  1,252
  1,307
  1,366
  1,378
  1,444
  1,515
  1,590
  1,670
  1,754
  1,844
  1,938
  2,039
  2,144
  2,256
  2,375
  2,499
  2,631
  2,770
  2,917
  3,071
  3,234
  3,406
  3,587
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -189
  -196
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -397
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -526
  -551
  -578
  -606
  -636
  -667
New CAPEX, $m
  -507
  -62
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -299
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -726
  -251
  -258
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -388
  -408
  -426
  -447
  -470
  -492
  -516
  -542
  -568
  -596
  -625
  -656
  -688
  -722
  -759
  -796
  -835
  -876
  -920
  -966
Free cash flow, $m
  142
  867
  739
  761
  787
  815
  845
  879
  915
  953
  995
  989
  1,037
  1,088
  1,143
  1,200
  1,262
  1,327
  1,397
  1,470
  1,548
  1,631
  1,718
  1,811
  1,908
  2,012
  2,121
  2,236
  2,357
  2,486
  2,621
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  143
  155
  168
  181
  194
  207
  221
  235
  249
  264
  280
  296
  313
  331
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  529
  557
  586
  616
  648
  681
  716
  752
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  143
  155
  168
  181
  194
  207
  221
  235
  249
  264
  280
  296
  313
  331
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  529
  557
  586
  616
  648
  681
  716
  752
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  1,010
  894
  929
  967
  1,008
  1,052
  1,099
  1,149
  1,203
  1,259
  1,269
  1,333
  1,401
  1,473
  1,550
  1,630
  1,716
  1,806
  1,902
  2,003
  2,109
  2,222
  2,340
  2,465
  2,597
  2,737
  2,883
  3,038
  3,201
  3,373
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -221
  -87
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -280
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -361
  -379
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -463
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,007
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,930
  798
  826
  856
  889
  925
  963
  1,005
  1,049
  1,097
  1,097
  1,151
  1,209
  1,270
  1,335
  1,404
  1,477
  1,554
  1,636
  1,723
  1,815
  1,912
  2,014
  2,123
  2,237
  2,358
  2,485
  2,619
  2,761
  2,910
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,850
  731
  719
  705
  689
  671
  651
  628
  603
  575
  521
  491
  459
  426
  392
  357
  321
  286
  252
  219
  188
  159
  132
  108
  87
  69
  53
  41
  30
  22
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Autoliv, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and supplies automotive safety systems to the automotive industry worldwide. It operates through two segments, Passive Safety and Electronics. The company offers a range of products, including modules and components for passenger and driver-side airbags, side-impact airbag protection systems, seatbelts, steering wheels, inflator technologies, whiplash protection systems, child seats, and components; and camera-based vision systems, night driving assists, automotive radars, brake controls, positioning systems, electronic control units, and other active safety systems, as well as passive safety electronic products, such as restraint electronics and crash sensors. It primarily serves car manufacturers. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Autoliv (ALV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.9
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 36%
Total Debt to Equity 42%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Equity 15.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
EBITDA Margin 12.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 8.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 30.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Payout Ratio 35.8%

ALV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10074 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Autoliv. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Autoliv. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ALV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Autoliv, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Autoliv.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $501 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Autoliv.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Autoliv. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALV are equal to 17.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Autoliv operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALV is equal to 5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3677 million for Autoliv - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.97 million for Autoliv is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Autoliv at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.6 billion.


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Stock chart of ALV Financial statements of ALV Annual reports of ALV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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