Intrinsic value of Alexander's Inc. - ALX

Previous Close

$412.59

  Intrinsic Value

$103.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

  Value-price divergence*

+5%

Previous close

$412.59

 
Intrinsic value

$103.55

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+5%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ALX.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.13
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  227
  232
  237
  243
  250
  257
  266
  275
  285
  295
  306
  319
  331
  345
  360
  375
  392
  409
  428
  447
  468
  489
  512
  536
  562
  588
  617
  646
  677
  710
  745
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  287
  300
  315
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  121
  125
  127
  131
  135
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  353
  370
Operating income, $m
  105
  107
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  197
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
  306
  322
  339
  357
  375
EBITDA, $m
  141
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  250
  261
  274
  287
  301
  316
  332
  349
  366
  385
  404
  425
  446
  469
  493
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  37
  38
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  220
  231
  244
  257
Tax expense, $m
  1
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
Net income, $m
  86
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  289
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,451
  1,386
  1,418
  1,455
  1,496
  1,541
  1,591
  1,645
  1,704
  1,767
  1,835
  1,907
  1,985
  2,067
  2,155
  2,248
  2,346
  2,450
  2,561
  2,677
  2,800
  2,930
  3,067
  3,211
  3,363
  3,523
  3,692
  3,869
  4,056
  4,252
  4,459
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,162
  1,386
  1,418
  1,455
  1,496
  1,541
  1,591
  1,645
  1,704
  1,767
  1,835
  1,907
  1,985
  2,067
  2,155
  2,248
  2,346
  2,450
  2,561
  2,677
  2,800
  2,930
  3,067
  3,211
  3,363
  3,523
  3,692
  3,869
  4,056
  4,252
  4,459
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.195
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
Average production assets, $m
  792
  808
  826
  848
  872
  898
  927
  958
  993
  1,029
  1,069
  1,111
  1,156
  1,204
  1,255
  1,310
  1,367
  1,428
  1,492
  1,560
  1,631
  1,707
  1,787
  1,871
  1,959
  2,053
  2,151
  2,254
  2,363
  2,478
  2,598
Working capital, $m
  0
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
Total debt, $m
  1,052
  1,073
  1,099
  1,128
  1,161
  1,198
  1,238
  1,282
  1,329
  1,380
  1,435
  1,493
  1,556
  1,622
  1,693
  1,768
  1,847
  1,931
  2,020
  2,114
  2,214
  2,318
  2,429
  2,545
  2,668
  2,797
  2,933
  3,076
  3,227
  3,386
  3,552
Total liabilities, $m
  1,098
  1,119
  1,145
  1,174
  1,207
  1,244
  1,284
  1,328
  1,375
  1,426
  1,481
  1,539
  1,602
  1,668
  1,739
  1,814
  1,893
  1,977
  2,066
  2,160
  2,260
  2,364
  2,475
  2,591
  2,714
  2,843
  2,979
  3,122
  3,273
  3,432
  3,598
Total equity, $m
  353
  268
  274
  281
  289
  297
  307
  317
  329
  341
  354
  368
  383
  399
  416
  434
  453
  473
  494
  517
  540
  565
  592
  620
  649
  680
  712
  747
  783
  821
  861
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,451
  1,387
  1,419
  1,455
  1,496
  1,541
  1,591
  1,645
  1,704
  1,767
  1,835
  1,907
  1,985
  2,067
  2,155
  2,248
  2,346
  2,450
  2,560
  2,677
  2,800
  2,929
  3,067
  3,211
  3,363
  3,523
  3,691
  3,869
  4,056
  4,253
  4,459
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.980
  4.010
  4.010
  4.020
  4.020
  4.030
  4.030
  4.040
  4.040
  4.050
  4.050
  4.060
  4.060
  4.070
  4.070
  4.080
  4.080
  4.080
  4.090
  4.090
  4.100
  4.100
  4.100
  4.110
  4.110
  4.110
  4.120
  4.120
  4.120
  4.130
  4.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.055
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Funds from operations, $m
  136
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  305
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  131
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  253
  266
  279
  294
  309
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -113
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -233
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  37
  35
  34
  33
  33
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  21
  26
  29
  33
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  62
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  21
  26
  29
  33
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  62
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  112
  57
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  208
  219
  230
  243
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  143
  55
  57
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  156
  165
  173
  183
  192
  203
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  131
  46
  43
  40
  37
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alexander’s, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in leasing, managing, developing, and redeveloping properties in the greater New York City metropolitan area. The company’s properties include office and retail spaces, and shopping centers. It owns seven properties comprising operating properties and a property to be developed. The company has elected to be treated as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. Alexander’s, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Paramus, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alexander's Inc. (ALX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.5
Price to Sales 9.3
Price to Book 6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -68%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 298%
Total Debt to Equity 298%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 24.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.9%
EBITDA Margin 63%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
Operating Margin 46.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 38.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Net Profit Margin 37.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Effective Tax Rate 1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Payout Ratio 95.3%

ALX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $227 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alexander's Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alexander's Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for ALX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alexander's Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alexander's Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Alexander's Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alexander's Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALX are equal to 348.9%.

Life of production assets of 22 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alexander's Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALX is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $353 million for Alexander's Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 5.075 million for Alexander's Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alexander's Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Alexander's reports 2Q results   [Jul-31-17 10:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexander's reports 1Q results   [May-01-17 09:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexander's Announces Fourth Quarter Results   [Feb-13-17 09:11AM  Marketwired]
▶ Alexander's reports 4Q results   [08:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Alexanders, Inc. (ALX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-15-16 10:13AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Alexanders, Inc. (ALX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [10:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Alexander's Announces Third Quarter Results   [Oct-31-16 08:46AM  Marketwired]
▶ Alexander's Announces Second Quarter Results   [Aug-01-16 09:05AM  Marketwired]
▶ Is GATX Corporation (GMT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-28  10:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Avoid Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)?   [Nov-25  12:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for Alexander's, Inc.   [Aug-05  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of ALX Financial statements of ALX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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