Intrinsic value of Alexander's Inc. - ALX

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$424.32

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ALX.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ALX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.13
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  227
  244
  262
  280
  299
  319
  340
  361
  384
  407
  431
  457
  483
  511
  539
  569
  601
  634
  668
  704
  741
  781
  822
  865
  910
  957
  1,007
  1,059
  1,113
  1,171
  1,231
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  103
  111
  118
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  521
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  121
  130
  138
  146
  156
  164
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  357
  374
  393
  412
  432
  453
  475
  499
  523
  548
  576
Operating income, $m
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  202
  216
  229
  244
  259
  274
  291
  308
  326
  345
  365
  385
  407
  429
  453
  478
  504
  532
  560
  591
  622
  655
EBITDA, $m
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  302
  320
  340
  360
  381
  403
  426
  451
  476
  503
  531
  560
  590
  622
  656
  691
  728
  767
  808
  851
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  37
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  77
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  172
  182
  194
  205
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  289
  305
  322
  340
  359
  379
  399
  421
  444
  468
Tax expense, $m
  1
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
Net income, $m
  86
  56
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  189
  199
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  292
  307
  324
  342

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  289
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,451
  1,251
  1,342
  1,436
  1,534
  1,636
  1,742
  1,853
  1,967
  2,087
  2,211
  2,341
  2,477
  2,618
  2,766
  2,920
  3,081
  3,249
  3,425
  3,609
  3,802
  4,003
  4,214
  4,436
  4,667
  4,910
  5,164
  5,431
  5,710
  6,003
  6,310
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,162
  1,251
  1,342
  1,436
  1,534
  1,636
  1,742
  1,853
  1,967
  2,087
  2,211
  2,341
  2,477
  2,618
  2,766
  2,920
  3,081
  3,249
  3,425
  3,609
  3,802
  4,003
  4,214
  4,436
  4,667
  4,910
  5,164
  5,431
  5,710
  6,003
  6,310
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
Average production assets, $m
  792
  851
  913
  977
  1,044
  1,113
  1,185
  1,260
  1,338
  1,420
  1,505
  1,593
  1,685
  1,781
  1,882
  1,986
  2,096
  2,210
  2,330
  2,455
  2,587
  2,724
  2,867
  3,018
  3,175
  3,340
  3,513
  3,695
  3,885
  4,084
  4,293
Working capital, $m
  0
  -311
  -333
  -357
  -381
  -406
  -432
  -460
  -488
  -518
  -549
  -581
  -615
  -650
  -687
  -725
  -765
  -807
  -850
  -896
  -944
  -994
  -1,046
  -1,101
  -1,159
  -1,219
  -1,282
  -1,348
  -1,417
  -1,490
  -1,566
Total debt, $m
  1,052
  1,080
  1,162
  1,247
  1,335
  1,427
  1,522
  1,621
  1,725
  1,832
  1,944
  2,061
  2,183
  2,310
  2,443
  2,582
  2,727
  2,878
  3,036
  3,202
  3,376
  3,557
  3,747
  3,946
  4,154
  4,373
  4,602
  4,842
  5,093
  5,357
  5,633
Total liabilities, $m
  1,098
  1,126
  1,208
  1,293
  1,381
  1,473
  1,568
  1,667
  1,771
  1,878
  1,990
  2,107
  2,229
  2,356
  2,489
  2,628
  2,773
  2,924
  3,082
  3,248
  3,422
  3,603
  3,793
  3,992
  4,200
  4,419
  4,648
  4,888
  5,139
  5,403
  5,679
Total equity, $m
  353
  125
  134
  144
  153
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  292
  308
  325
  342
  361
  380
  400
  421
  444
  467
  491
  516
  543
  571
  600
  631
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,451
  1,251
  1,342
  1,437
  1,534
  1,637
  1,742
  1,852
  1,968
  2,087
  2,211
  2,341
  2,477
  2,618
  2,766
  2,920
  3,081
  3,249
  3,424
  3,609
  3,802
  4,003
  4,214
  4,436
  4,667
  4,910
  5,164
  5,431
  5,710
  6,003
  6,310
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.980
  8.630
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.055
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  56
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  189
  199
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  292
  307
  324
  342
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
Funds from operations, $m
  136
  95
  104
  112
  121
  129
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  353
  372
  393
  414
  436
  459
  484
  510
  537
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
Cash from operations, $m
  131
  106
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  405
  427
  450
  474
  499
  526
  553
  582
  613
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -280
  -295
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -395
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  10
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  165
  174
  185
  195
  207
  218
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  28
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  264
  277
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  28
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  264
  277
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  112
  39
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  173
  182
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  328
  345
  364
  383
  403
  424
  447
  470
  495
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -61
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  289
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  267
  99
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  291
  307
  323
  341
  359
  378
  398
  419
  441
  464
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  245
  83
  80
  77
  72
  67
  62
  57
  51
  45
  39
  34
  29
  24
  19
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alexander’s, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in leasing, managing, developing, and redeveloping properties in the greater New York City metropolitan area. The company’s properties include office and retail spaces, and shopping centers. It owns seven properties comprising operating properties and a property to be developed. The company has elected to be treated as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. Alexander’s, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is based in Paramus, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alexander's Inc. (ALX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.2
Price to Sales 9.6
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -68%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 298%
Total Debt to Equity 298%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 24.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.9%
EBITDA Margin 63%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
Operating Margin 46.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 38.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Net Profit Margin 37.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Effective Tax Rate 1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Payout Ratio 95.3%

ALX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ALX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $227 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alexander's Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alexander's Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ALX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for ALX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alexander's Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alexander's Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ALX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ALX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Alexander's Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alexander's Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ALX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ALX are equal to 348.9%.

Life of production assets of 22 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alexander's Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ALX is equal to -127.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $353 million for Alexander's Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 5.075 million for Alexander's Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alexander's Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Alexander's reports 1Q results   [May-01-17 09:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexander's Announces Fourth Quarter Results   [Feb-13-17 09:11AM  Marketwired]
▶ Alexander's reports 4Q results   [08:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Alexanders, Inc. (ALX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-15-16 10:13AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Alexanders, Inc. (ALX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [10:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Alexander's Announces Third Quarter Results   [Oct-31-16 08:46AM  Marketwired]
▶ Alexander's Announces Second Quarter Results   [Aug-01-16 09:05AM  Marketwired]
▶ Is GATX Corporation (GMT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-28  10:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Avoid Lexington Realty Trust (LXP)?   [Nov-25  12:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for Alexander's, Inc.   [Aug-05  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ The 15 Best S&P 500 Dividend Stocks of Last 25 Years   [Jul-23  08:37AM  at TheStreet]
▶ 10-Q for Alexander's, Inc.   [May-06  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of ALX Financial statements of ALX Annual reports of ALX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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