Intrinsic value of Ambarella - AMBA

Previous Close

$46.43

  Intrinsic Value

$56.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+22%

  Value-price divergence*

+32%

Previous close

$46.43

 
Intrinsic value

$56.79

 
Up/down potential

+22%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+32%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMBA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.90
  12.30
  11.57
  10.91
  10.32
  9.79
  9.31
  8.88
  8.49
  8.14
  7.83
  7.55
  7.29
  7.06
  6.86
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  310
  348
  388
  431
  475
  522
  570
  621
  674
  729
  786
  845
  907
  971
  1,037
  1,106
  1,178
  1,253
  1,331
  1,412
  1,497
  1,585
  1,677
  1,772
  1,873
  1,977
  2,086
  2,200
  2,320
  2,445
  2,575
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  256
  285
  316
  348
  382
  417
  454
  492
  532
  573
  614
  658
  705
  753
  803
  856
  910
  967
  1,026
  1,087
  1,151
  1,218
  1,287
  1,360
  1,436
  1,515
  1,598
  1,685
  1,776
  1,870
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  250
  256
  285
  316
  348
  382
  417
  454
  492
  532
  573
  614
  658
  705
  753
  803
  856
  910
  967
  1,026
  1,087
  1,151
  1,218
  1,287
  1,360
  1,436
  1,515
  1,598
  1,685
  1,776
  1,870
Operating income, $m
  60
  93
  104
  115
  127
  140
  153
  167
  182
  197
  212
  231
  248
  266
  284
  303
  322
  343
  364
  386
  410
  434
  459
  485
  513
  541
  571
  602
  635
  669
  705
EBITDA, $m
  62
  96
  107
  119
  131
  144
  157
  171
  185
  201
  216
  233
  249
  267
  285
  304
  324
  345
  366
  389
  412
  436
  461
  488
  515
  544
  574
  606
  638
  673
  709
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  93
  103
  115
  127
  139
  152
  166
  180
  194
  210
  228
  245
  262
  280
  298
  317
  337
  358
  380
  403
  426
  451
  476
  503
  531
  560
  591
  623
  656
  691
Tax expense, $m
  3
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  52
  57
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  160
  168
  177
  187
Net income, $m
  58
  68
  75
  84
  92
  102
  111
  121
  131
  142
  153
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  367
  388
  409
  431
  455
  479
  505

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  405
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  512
  120
  134
  149
  164
  180
  197
  214
  233
  252
  271
  292
  313
  335
  358
  382
  407
  433
  459
  487
  517
  547
  579
  612
  646
  682
  720
  760
  801
  844
  889
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  107
  120
  134
  149
  164
  180
  197
  214
  233
  252
  271
  292
  313
  335
  358
  382
  407
  433
  459
  487
  517
  547
  579
  612
  646
  682
  720
  760
  801
  844
  889
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.897
  2.900
  2.896
  2.893
  2.896
  2.900
  2.893
  2.902
  2.893
  2.893
  2.900
  2.894
  2.898
  2.899
  2.897
  2.895
  2.894
  2.894
  2.900
  2.899
  2.896
  2.898
  2.896
  2.895
  2.899
  2.899
  2.897
  2.895
  2.896
  2.897
  2.897
Average production assets, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
Working capital, $m
  415
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
Total debt, $m
  0
  7
  14
  22
  30
  39
  48
  57
  67
  77
  88
  98
  110
  122
  134
  147
  160
  174
  188
  203
  218
  235
  251
  269
  288
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
Total liabilities, $m
  58
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  155
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
  275
  292
  308
  326
  345
  364
  384
  405
  427
  450
  474
Total equity, $m
  455
  56
  63
  69
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  117
  127
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  215
  228
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  394
  415
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  513
  120
  134
  148
  164
  180
  197
  214
  233
  251
  272
  291
  313
  335
  358
  382
  407
  433
  460
  488
  516
  547
  578
  612
  647
  683
  720
  760
  801
  844
  889
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.130
  0.230
  0.320
  0.400
  0.460
  0.520
  0.570
  0.620
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  58
  68
  75
  84
  92
  102
  111
  121
  131
  142
  153
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  367
  388
  409
  431
  455
  479
  505
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  117
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  125
  135
  146
  157
  168
  180
  193
  206
  219
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
  370
  391
  412
  435
  458
  483
  508
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  113
  70
  77
  86
  94
  103
  113
  123
  133
  144
  155
  166
  178
  191
  204
  217
  231
  246
  261
  277
  293
  311
  329
  347
  367
  387
  409
  431
  454
  479
  504
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  67
  68
  76
  84
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  153
  163
  175
  187
  200
  214
  228
  242
  257
  273
  289
  306
  324
  342
  362
  382
  403
  425
  448
  472
  497
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -13
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  199
  213
  226
  241
  256
  271
  288
  305
  322
  341
  360
  380
  401
  423
  446
  470
  495
  521
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -106
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  405
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  474
  77
  85
  94
  103
  112
  122
  132
  143
  154
  165
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  244
  259
  275
  291
  308
  326
  344
  364
  384
  405
  427
  451
  475
  500
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  454
  70
  74
  77
  80
  81
  82
  83
  82
  81
  78
  75
  72
  68
  63
  58
  53
  48
  42
  37
  32
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Ambarella, Inc. offers semiconductor processing solutions for video that enable high-definition (HD), video capture, sharing and display. The Company operates through the development and sale of low-power, high-definition video products segment. Its system-on-a-chip designs incorporate HD video processing, image processing, audio processing and system functions onto a single chip. In the camera market, its platform enables the creation of video content in wearable cameras, automotive aftermarket cameras, professional and consumer Internet Protocol (IP), security cameras, telepresence cameras and unmanned aerial vehicles. In the infrastructure market, its solutions manage IP video traffic, broadcast encoding and transcoding, and IP video delivery applications. AmbaClear is its image signal processing architecture. AmbaCast is its HD video processing architecture. It offers the MotorVu 3D 360 degrees Surround View reference design for automotive original equipment manufacturer market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ambarella (AMBA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.7
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Return On Total Capital 14.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Return On Equity 14.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.1%
Operating Margin 19.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Net Profit Margin 18.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Effective Tax Rate 4.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMBA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMBA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $310 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ambarella. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ambarella. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMBA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMBA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ambarella, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ambarella.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMBA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMBA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ambarella.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ambarella. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMBA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMBA are equal to 2.6%.

Life of production assets of 17.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ambarella operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMBA is equal to 3.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $455 million for Ambarella - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.786 million for Ambarella is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ambarella at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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Financial statements of AMBA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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