Intrinsic value of AMC Entertainment Holding - AMC

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$23.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$23.60

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.81
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  3,236
  3,336
  3,749
  4,185
  4,645
  5,127
  5,632
  6,159
  6,708
  7,280
  7,876
  8,495
  9,138
  9,806
  10,501
  11,223
  11,974
  12,755
  13,567
  14,412
  15,292
  16,209
  17,165
  18,162
  19,202
  20,288
  21,422
  22,606
  23,844
  25,139
  26,493
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,734
  3,042
  3,369
  3,712
  4,072
  4,449
  4,843
  5,254
  5,681
  6,126
  6,348
  6,829
  7,329
  7,848
  8,387
  8,948
  9,532
  10,139
  10,770
  11,428
  12,114
  12,828
  13,573
  14,350
  15,162
  16,009
  16,894
  17,819
  18,787
  19,799
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  338
  346
  355
  364
  373
  382
  391
  401
  411
  422
  432
  443
  454
  465
  477
  489
  501
  514
  527
  540
  553
  567
  581
  596
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,023
  3,025
  3,340
  3,675
  4,025
  4,393
  4,778
  5,181
  5,600
  6,036
  6,490
  6,721
  7,211
  7,720
  8,249
  8,798
  9,370
  9,964
  10,582
  11,224
  11,893
  12,591
  13,317
  14,074
  14,864
  15,689
  16,549
  17,447
  18,386
  19,368
  20,395
Operating income, $m
  213
  311
  408
  511
  619
  733
  853
  978
  1,108
  1,244
  1,386
  1,774
  1,927
  2,086
  2,252
  2,425
  2,604
  2,791
  2,985
  3,188
  3,399
  3,619
  3,848
  4,088
  4,338
  4,600
  4,873
  5,159
  5,458
  5,771
  6,098
EBITDA, $m
  481
  624
  730
  842
  960
  1,085
  1,215
  1,351
  1,493
  1,642
  1,796
  1,957
  2,124
  2,297
  2,478
  2,666
  2,862
  3,065
  3,277
  3,498
  3,728
  3,968
  4,218
  4,479
  4,752
  5,036
  5,334
  5,645
  5,971
  6,312
  6,669
Interest expense (income), $m
  105
  102
  126
  151
  178
  206
  235
  266
  298
  332
  367
  403
  441
  480
  521
  564
  608
  654
  702
  751
  803
  857
  913
  971
  1,032
  1,096
  1,162
  1,231
  1,304
  1,379
  1,459
Earnings before tax, $m
  150
  209
  282
  360
  442
  528
  618
  712
  810
  912
  1,019
  1,370
  1,486
  1,606
  1,731
  1,861
  1,996
  2,137
  2,284
  2,436
  2,596
  2,762
  2,936
  3,117
  3,306
  3,504
  3,711
  3,928
  4,154
  4,391
  4,640
Tax expense, $m
  38
  57
  76
  97
  119
  142
  167
  192
  219
  246
  275
  370
  401
  434
  467
  502
  539
  577
  617
  658
  701
  746
  793
  842
  893
  946
  1,002
  1,060
  1,122
  1,186
  1,253
Net income, $m
  112
  153
  206
  263
  323
  385
  451
  520
  591
  666
  744
  1,000
  1,085
  1,172
  1,263
  1,358
  1,457
  1,560
  1,667
  1,779
  1,895
  2,016
  2,143
  2,275
  2,413
  2,558
  2,709
  2,867
  3,032
  3,206
  3,387

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  252
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,642
  5,523
  6,207
  6,930
  7,690
  8,489
  9,324
  10,197
  11,106
  12,054
  13,039
  14,064
  15,129
  16,236
  17,386
  18,582
  19,824
  21,117
  22,461
  23,861
  25,318
  26,837
  28,419
  30,070
  31,792
  33,589
  35,466
  37,428
  39,477
  41,621
  43,863
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,390
  5,523
  6,207
  6,930
  7,690
  8,489
  9,324
  10,197
  11,106
  12,054
  13,039
  14,064
  15,129
  16,236
  17,386
  18,582
  19,824
  21,117
  22,461
  23,861
  25,318
  26,837
  28,419
  30,070
  31,792
  33,589
  35,466
  37,428
  39,477
  41,621
  43,863
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.386
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
  0.604
Average production assets, $m
  2,568
  991
  1,113
  1,243
  1,380
  1,523
  1,673
  1,829
  1,992
  2,162
  2,339
  2,523
  2,714
  2,913
  3,119
  3,333
  3,556
  3,788
  4,029
  4,280
  4,542
  4,814
  5,098
  5,394
  5,703
  6,025
  6,362
  6,714
  7,082
  7,466
  7,868
Working capital, $m
  -505
  -554
  -622
  -695
  -771
  -851
  -935
  -1,022
  -1,114
  -1,209
  -1,307
  -1,410
  -1,517
  -1,628
  -1,743
  -1,863
  -1,988
  -2,117
  -2,252
  -2,392
  -2,539
  -2,691
  -2,849
  -3,015
  -3,188
  -3,368
  -3,556
  -3,753
  -3,958
  -4,173
  -4,398
Total debt, $m
  4,653
  2,466
  2,961
  3,484
  4,035
  4,613
  5,218
  5,849
  6,508
  7,194
  7,907
  8,649
  9,420
  10,222
  11,055
  11,920
  12,820
  13,756
  14,729
  15,742
  16,797
  17,897
  19,042
  20,237
  21,484
  22,786
  24,145
  25,565
  27,049
  28,600
  30,223
Total liabilities, $m
  6,631
  3,999
  4,494
  5,017
  5,568
  6,146
  6,751
  7,382
  8,041
  8,727
  9,440
  10,182
  10,953
  11,755
  12,588
  13,453
  14,353
  15,289
  16,262
  17,275
  18,330
  19,430
  20,575
  21,770
  23,017
  24,319
  25,678
  27,098
  28,582
  30,133
  31,756
Total equity, $m
  2,011
  1,524
  1,713
  1,913
  2,123
  2,343
  2,573
  2,814
  3,065
  3,327
  3,599
  3,882
  4,176
  4,481
  4,799
  5,129
  5,472
  5,828
  6,199
  6,586
  6,988
  7,407
  7,844
  8,299
  8,774
  9,271
  9,789
  10,330
  10,896
  11,487
  12,106
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,642
  5,523
  6,207
  6,930
  7,691
  8,489
  9,324
  10,196
  11,106
  12,054
  13,039
  14,064
  15,129
  16,236
  17,387
  18,582
  19,825
  21,117
  22,461
  23,861
  25,318
  26,837
  28,419
  30,069
  31,791
  33,590
  35,467
  37,428
  39,478
  41,620
  43,862
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.314
  1.620
  1.730
  1.820
  1.900
  1.970
  2.030
  2.080
  2.120
  2.160
  2.200
  2.230
  2.260
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
  2.390
  2.400
  2.420
  2.430
  2.440
  2.450
  2.460
  2.470
  2.470
  2.480
  2.490
  2.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.210
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276
  0.276

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  112
  153
  206
  263
  323
  385
  451
  520
  591
  666
  744
  1,000
  1,085
  1,172
  1,263
  1,358
  1,457
  1,560
  1,667
  1,779
  1,895
  2,016
  2,143
  2,275
  2,413
  2,558
  2,709
  2,867
  3,032
  3,206
  3,387
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  268
  312
  321
  331
  341
  351
  362
  373
  385
  397
  410
  183
  197
  211
  226
  242
  258
  274
  292
  310
  329
  349
  369
  391
  413
  437
  461
  487
  513
  541
  570
Funds from operations, $m
  349
  465
  528
  594
  663
  736
  813
  893
  976
  1,063
  1,154
  1,183
  1,281
  1,383
  1,489
  1,600
  1,715
  1,834
  1,959
  2,089
  2,224
  2,365
  2,512
  2,666
  2,827
  2,995
  3,170
  3,354
  3,546
  3,747
  3,957
Change in working capital, $m
  -83
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -165
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
Cash from operations, $m
  432
  -107
  596
  666
  739
  816
  897
  980
  1,068
  1,158
  1,253
  1,286
  1,388
  1,494
  1,605
  1,720
  1,839
  1,964
  2,094
  2,229
  2,370
  2,517
  2,671
  2,832
  2,999
  3,175
  3,358
  3,550
  3,751
  3,962
  4,182
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -63
  -72
  -81
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -121
  -133
  -144
  -157
  -169
  -183
  -197
  -211
  -226
  -242
  -258
  -274
  -292
  -310
  -329
  -349
  -369
  -391
  -413
  -437
  -461
  -487
  -513
  -541
New CAPEX, $m
  -422
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -284
  -296
  -309
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -402
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,355
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -226
  -243
  -260
  -278
  -296
  -314
  -334
  -353
  -374
  -396
  -417
  -440
  -465
  -490
  -515
  -543
  -571
  -601
  -633
  -665
  -700
  -735
  -774
  -813
  -855
  -897
  -943
Free cash flow, $m
  -923
  -287
  402
  456
  513
  573
  636
  703
  772
  844
  919
  933
  1,014
  1,099
  1,187
  1,279
  1,375
  1,474
  1,578
  1,686
  1,799
  1,916
  2,038
  2,166
  2,300
  2,439
  2,585
  2,737
  2,897
  3,064
  3,239
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,065
  470
  495
  523
  551
  578
  605
  632
  659
  686
  714
  742
  771
  801
  833
  866
  900
  936
  974
  1,013
  1,055
  1,099
  1,146
  1,195
  1,247
  1,301
  1,359
  1,420
  1,484
  1,552
  1,623
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  998
  470
  495
  523
  551
  578
  605
  632
  659
  686
  714
  742
  771
  801
  833
  866
  900
  936
  974
  1,013
  1,055
  1,099
  1,146
  1,195
  1,247
  1,301
  1,359
  1,420
  1,484
  1,552
  1,623
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  76
  183
  897
  979
  1,064
  1,151
  1,241
  1,334
  1,430
  1,530
  1,633
  1,675
  1,785
  1,900
  2,020
  2,145
  2,275
  2,410
  2,552
  2,699
  2,854
  3,015
  3,184
  3,361
  3,546
  3,741
  3,944
  4,157
  4,381
  4,616
  4,862
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -471
  -176
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -305
  -317
  -330
  -343
  -357
  -371
  -386
  -402
  -419
  -437
  -456
  -475
  -496
  -518
  -541
  -566
  -592
  -619
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  192
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  198
  708
  779
  854
  931
  1,011
  1,093
  1,179
  1,268
  1,361
  1,392
  1,491
  1,595
  1,703
  1,815
  1,932
  2,053
  2,180
  2,313
  2,451
  2,596
  2,747
  2,906
  3,071
  3,244
  3,426
  3,616
  3,815
  4,024
  4,243
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  184
  606
  610
  607
  595
  576
  550
  518
  481
  440
  379
  338
  296
  255
  216
  180
  146
  117
  91
  70
  52
  38
  27
  19
  13
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a theatrical exhibition company in the United States and internationally. It owns, operates, or has interests in theatres. As of June 30, 2016, the company owned, operated, or had interests in 386 theatres with 5,334 screens primarily in the United States. The company was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Leawood, Kansas. AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Wanda America Investment Holding Co. Ltd.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AMC Entertainment Holding (AMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 259.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 227.3%
Total Debt to Equity 231.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.4%
EBITDA Margin 16.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Operating Margin 6.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 25.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Payout Ratio 71.4%

AMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2947 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AMC Entertainment Holding. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AMC Entertainment Holding. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for AMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AMC Entertainment Holding, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AMC Entertainment Holding.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $284 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for AMC Entertainment Holding.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AMC Entertainment Holding. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMC are equal to 29.7%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AMC Entertainment Holding operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMC is equal to -16.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1540 million for AMC Entertainment Holding - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 129.276 million for AMC Entertainment Holding is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AMC Entertainment Holding at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.


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Stock chart of AMC Financial statements of AMC Annual reports of AMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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