Intrinsic value of Advanced Micro Devices - AMD

Previous Close

$13.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$13.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.03

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.04
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  4,272
  4,571
  4,882
  5,205
  5,541
  5,891
  6,255
  6,634
  7,030
  7,441
  7,871
  8,320
  8,788
  9,277
  9,788
  10,322
  10,881
  11,465
  12,077
  12,717
  13,387
  14,089
  14,824
  15,594
  16,402
  17,248
  18,135
  19,065
  20,041
  21,064
  22,137
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,902
  4,165
  4,439
  4,724
  5,020
  5,328
  5,650
  5,985
  6,334
  6,698
  7,049
  7,445
  7,860
  8,293
  8,745
  9,219
  9,714
  10,232
  10,774
  11,342
  11,936
  12,559
  13,212
  13,896
  14,613
  15,365
  16,153
  16,979
  17,846
  18,755
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,117
  1,145
  1,174
  1,203
  1,233
  1,264
  1,296
  1,328
  1,361
  1,395
  1,430
  1,466
  1,503
  1,540
  1,579
  1,618
  1,659
  1,700
  1,743
  1,786
  1,831
  1,877
  1,923
  1,972
  2,021
  2,071
  2,123
  2,176
  2,231
  2,286
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,712
  5,019
  5,310
  5,613
  5,927
  6,253
  6,592
  6,946
  7,313
  7,695
  8,093
  8,479
  8,911
  9,363
  9,833
  10,324
  10,837
  11,373
  11,932
  12,517
  13,128
  13,767
  14,436
  15,135
  15,868
  16,634
  17,436
  18,276
  19,155
  20,077
  21,041
Operating income, $m
  -440
  -448
  -428
  -408
  -386
  -362
  -337
  -311
  -283
  -253
  -222
  -159
  -123
  -85
  -45
  -2
  44
  93
  145
  200
  259
  322
  388
  459
  534
  614
  699
  789
  885
  987
  1,095
EBITDA, $m
  -307
  -337
  -312
  -285
  -257
  -227
  -196
  -163
  -128
  -91
  -51
  -9
  35
  82
  131
  184
  240
  299
  362
  429
  500
  575
  655
  740
  829
  925
  1,026
  1,133
  1,246
  1,366
  1,494
Interest expense (income), $m
  149
  116
  41
  52
  64
  75
  88
  100
  114
  128
  142
  157
  173
  189
  207
  224
  243
  263
  283
  305
  327
  351
  375
  401
  428
  457
  486
  517
  550
  584
  620
Earnings before tax, $m
  -448
  -564
  -470
  -460
  -449
  -438
  -425
  -412
  -397
  -381
  -364
  -316
  -296
  -275
  -251
  -226
  -199
  -170
  -138
  -105
  -68
  -29
  13
  58
  106
  157
  213
  272
  335
  403
  475
Tax expense, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  16
  29
  43
  57
  73
  91
  109
  128
Net income, $m
  -497
  -564
  -470
  -460
  -449
  -438
  -425
  -412
  -397
  -381
  -364
  -316
  -296
  -275
  -251
  -226
  -199
  -170
  -138
  -105
  -68
  -29
  9
  42
  77
  115
  155
  199
  245
  294
  347

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,264
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,321
  2,201
  2,350
  2,506
  2,668
  2,836
  3,012
  3,194
  3,384
  3,583
  3,790
  4,006
  4,231
  4,466
  4,713
  4,970
  5,239
  5,520
  5,814
  6,123
  6,445
  6,783
  7,137
  7,508
  7,897
  8,304
  8,731
  9,179
  9,649
  10,141
  10,658
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,057
  2,201
  2,350
  2,506
  2,668
  2,836
  3,012
  3,194
  3,384
  3,583
  3,790
  4,006
  4,231
  4,466
  4,713
  4,970
  5,239
  5,520
  5,814
  6,123
  6,445
  6,783
  7,137
  7,508
  7,897
  8,304
  8,731
  9,179
  9,649
  10,141
  10,658
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
  2.077
Average production assets, $m
  387
  411
  439
  468
  499
  530
  563
  597
  633
  670
  708
  749
  791
  835
  881
  929
  979
  1,032
  1,087
  1,144
  1,205
  1,268
  1,334
  1,403
  1,476
  1,552
  1,632
  1,716
  1,804
  1,896
  1,992
Working capital, $m
  1,184
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -242
  -254
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -381
  -400
  -421
Total debt, $m
  1,435
  511
  645
  785
  931
  1,083
  1,240
  1,405
  1,576
  1,755
  1,941
  2,135
  2,338
  2,550
  2,771
  3,003
  3,245
  3,498
  3,763
  4,040
  4,331
  4,635
  4,953
  5,287
  5,637
  6,004
  6,388
  6,791
  7,214
  7,657
  8,122
Total liabilities, $m
  2,905
  1,981
  2,115
  2,255
  2,401
  2,553
  2,710
  2,875
  3,046
  3,225
  3,411
  3,605
  3,808
  4,020
  4,241
  4,473
  4,715
  4,968
  5,233
  5,510
  5,801
  6,105
  6,423
  6,757
  7,107
  7,474
  7,858
  8,261
  8,684
  9,127
  9,592
Total equity, $m
  416
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  358
  379
  401
  423
  447
  471
  497
  524
  552
  581
  612
  645
  678
  714
  751
  790
  830
  873
  918
  965
  1,014
  1,066
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,321
  2,201
  2,350
  2,506
  2,668
  2,837
  3,011
  3,194
  3,384
  3,583
  3,790
  4,006
  4,231
  4,467
  4,712
  4,970
  5,239
  5,520
  5,814
  6,122
  6,446
  6,783
  7,137
  7,508
  7,897
  8,304
  8,731
  9,179
  9,649
  10,141
  10,658
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.450
  2.320
  2.750
  3.130
  3.490
  3.820
  4.120
  4.400
  4.660
  4.900
  5.120
  5.330
  5.530
  5.710
  5.880
  6.040
  6.190
  6.340
  6.470
  6.600
  6.720
  6.830
  6.940
  7.040
  7.140
  7.230
  7.320
  7.400
  7.480
  7.550
  7.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.412
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -497
  -564
  -470
  -460
  -449
  -438
  -425
  -412
  -397
  -381
  -364
  -316
  -296
  -275
  -251
  -226
  -199
  -170
  -138
  -105
  -68
  -29
  9
  42
  77
  115
  155
  199
  245
  294
  347
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  133
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  398
Funds from operations, $m
  270
  -453
  -353
  -337
  -321
  -303
  -284
  -263
  -241
  -218
  -193
  -167
  -138
  -108
  -75
  -40
  -3
  36
  79
  124
  173
  224
  276
  323
  372
  425
  482
  542
  605
  673
  745
Change in working capital, $m
  180
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  -447
  -347
  -331
  -314
  -296
  -277
  -256
  -234
  -210
  -185
  -158
  -129
  -98
  -66
  -30
  7
  48
  91
  136
  185
  238
  290
  337
  388
  442
  499
  559
  624
  693
  766
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -361
  -379
New CAPEX, $m
  -77
  -25
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
Cash from investing activities, $m
  267
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -354
  -371
  -390
  -410
  -431
  -453
  -476
Free cash flow, $m
  357
  -549
  -457
  -448
  -438
  -427
  -416
  -403
  -389
  -374
  -358
  -340
  -321
  -301
  -279
  -255
  -229
  -201
  -171
  -139
  -104
  -66
  -30
  1
  34
  70
  108
  149
  193
  240
  290
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -561
  -924
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  179
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  423
  443
  465
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  667
  1,632
  485
  475
  465
  454
  443
  430
  416
  401
  385
  338
  319
  298
  276
  252
  226
  198
  168
  135
  101
  63
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  122
  708
  620
  615
  611
  606
  601
  594
  587
  580
  571
  532
  522
  510
  497
  483
  468
  451
  433
  412
  391
  367
  345
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  423
  443
  465
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  479
  158
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  335
  384
  437
  493
  552
  616
  683
  755
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -828
  -1,632
  -485
  -475
  -465
  -454
  -443
  -430
  -416
  -401
  -385
  -338
  -319
  -298
  -276
  -252
  -226
  -198
  -168
  -135
  -101
  -63
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,264
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -210
  -323
  -308
  -292
  -276
  -258
  -238
  -218
  -195
  -172
  -146
  -118
  -89
  -57
  -23
  13
  52
  94
  139
  187
  238
  280
  298
  345
  396
  450
  508
  569
  634
  703
Discount rate, %
 
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -197
  -283
  -250
  -219
  -188
  -160
  -133
  -108
  -86
  -66
  -48
  -33
  -21
  -11
  -4
  2
  5
  8
  9
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  41.0
  34.1
  28.7
  24.6
  21.2
  18.6
  16.5
  14.7
  13.3
  12.2
  11.3
  10.6
  9.9
  9.4
  9.0
  8.7
  8.4
  8.2
  8.1
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0
  8.0

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. is a global semiconductor company. The Company is engaged in offering x86 microprocessors, as standalone devices or as incorporated into an accelerated processing unit (APU), chipsets, discrete graphics processing units (GPUs) and professional graphics, and server and embedded processors and semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products and technology for game consoles. The Company's segments include the Computing and Graphics segment, and the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment. The Computing and Graphics segment primarily includes desktop and notebook processors and chipsets, discrete GPUs and professional graphics. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment primarily includes server and embedded processors, semi-custom SoC products, development services, technology for game consoles and licensing portions of its intellectual property portfolio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -25
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 29.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 138.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 956.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 345%
Total Debt to Equity 345%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Return On Total Capital -27%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Return On Equity -24850%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -8124.5%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
EBITDA Margin -3.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Operating Margin -10.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -10.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.3%
Net Profit Margin -11.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.8%
Effective Tax Rate -8.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4272 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Advanced Micro Devices. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Advanced Micro Devices. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for AMD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Advanced Micro Devices, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Advanced Micro Devices.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1090 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.1% for Advanced Micro Devices.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Advanced Micro Devices. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMD are equal to 9%.

Life of production assets of 5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Advanced Micro Devices operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMD is equal to -1.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $416 million for Advanced Micro Devices - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 941.271 million for Advanced Micro Devices is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Advanced Micro Devices at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.5 billion.

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Financial statements of AMD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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