Intrinsic value of Amedisys - AMED

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$59.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$59.70

 
Intrinsic value

$74.94

 
Up/down potential

+26%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMED stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.18
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  1,437
  1,523
  1,613
  1,707
  1,805
  1,907
  2,013
  2,125
  2,241
  2,363
  2,490
  2,623
  2,763
  2,908
  3,061
  3,221
  3,389
  3,565
  3,749
  3,942
  4,145
  4,357
  4,579
  4,813
  5,058
  5,315
  5,584
  5,867
  6,164
  6,475
  6,802
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  877
  927
  979
  1,034
  1,091
  1,150
  1,212
  1,277
  1,345
  1,416
  1,461
  1,538
  1,620
  1,705
  1,794
  1,887
  1,985
  2,088
  2,195
  2,308
  2,426
  2,550
  2,680
  2,817
  2,960
  3,110
  3,267
  3,433
  3,606
  3,788
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  579
  594
  608
  624
  639
  655
  672
  688
  706
  723
  741
  760
  779
  798
  818
  839
  860
  881
  903
  926
  949
  973
  997
  1,022
  1,047
  1,074
  1,101
  1,128
  1,156
  1,185
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,380
  1,456
  1,521
  1,587
  1,658
  1,730
  1,805
  1,884
  1,965
  2,051
  2,139
  2,202
  2,298
  2,399
  2,503
  2,612
  2,726
  2,845
  2,969
  3,098
  3,234
  3,375
  3,523
  3,677
  3,839
  4,007
  4,184
  4,368
  4,561
  4,762
  4,973
Operating income, $m
  57
  67
  92
  119
  147
  177
  208
  241
  276
  312
  351
  421
  464
  510
  558
  609
  663
  720
  780
  844
  911
  982
  1,056
  1,136
  1,219
  1,308
  1,401
  1,499
  1,603
  1,713
  1,829
EBITDA, $m
  77
  101
  126
  153
  182
  212
  243
  277
  312
  349
  388
  430
  473
  519
  568
  620
  674
  732
  792
  856
  924
  996
  1,071
  1,151
  1,236
  1,325
  1,419
  1,518
  1,623
  1,734
  1,851
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  64
  89
  115
  142
  171
  202
  234
  268
  304
  342
  411
  453
  498
  545
  595
  648
  704
  763
  825
  891
  961
  1,034
  1,112
  1,194
  1,281
  1,372
  1,469
  1,571
  1,679
  1,793
Tax expense, $m
  24
  17
  24
  31
  38
  46
  54
  63
  72
  82
  92
  111
  122
  135
  147
  161
  175
  190
  206
  223
  241
  259
  279
  300
  322
  346
  371
  397
  424
  453
  484
Net income, $m
  37
  47
  65
  84
  104
  125
  147
  171
  196
  222
  250
  300
  331
  364
  398
  435
  473
  514
  557
  602
  651
  701
  755
  812
  872
  935
  1,002
  1,072
  1,147
  1,226
  1,309

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  734
  746
  790
  836
  884
  934
  986
  1,041
  1,098
  1,158
  1,220
  1,285
  1,354
  1,425
  1,500
  1,578
  1,661
  1,747
  1,837
  1,931
  2,031
  2,135
  2,244
  2,358
  2,478
  2,604
  2,736
  2,875
  3,020
  3,173
  3,333
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  704
  746
  790
  836
  884
  934
  986
  1,041
  1,098
  1,158
  1,220
  1,285
  1,354
  1,425
  1,500
  1,578
  1,661
  1,747
  1,837
  1,931
  2,031
  2,135
  2,244
  2,358
  2,478
  2,604
  2,736
  2,875
  3,020
  3,173
  3,333
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.041
  2.042
  2.042
  2.042
  2.042
  2.042
  2.042
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.040
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
Average production assets, $m
  86
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  314
  329
  346
  364
  382
  401
Working capital, $m
  34
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Total debt, $m
  93
  104
  121
  138
  157
  176
  196
  217
  238
  261
  285
  310
  336
  363
  392
  422
  453
  486
  521
  557
  595
  634
  676
  720
  766
  814
  864
  917
  973
  1,031
  1,092
Total liabilities, $m
  274
  285
  302
  319
  338
  357
  377
  398
  419
  442
  466
  491
  517
  544
  573
  603
  634
  667
  702
  738
  776
  815
  857
  901
  947
  995
  1,045
  1,098
  1,154
  1,212
  1,273
Total equity, $m
  460
  461
  488
  517
  546
  577
  610
  643
  679
  715
  754
  794
  836
  881
  927
  975
  1,026
  1,079
  1,135
  1,194
  1,255
  1,319
  1,387
  1,457
  1,531
  1,609
  1,691
  1,777
  1,866
  1,961
  2,060
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  734
  746
  790
  836
  884
  934
  987
  1,041
  1,098
  1,157
  1,220
  1,285
  1,353
  1,425
  1,500
  1,578
  1,660
  1,746
  1,837
  1,932
  2,031
  2,134
  2,244
  2,358
  2,478
  2,604
  2,736
  2,875
  3,020
  3,173
  3,333
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.202
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.611
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  37
  47
  65
  84
  104
  125
  147
  171
  196
  222
  250
  300
  331
  364
  398
  435
  473
  514
  557
  602
  651
  701
  755
  812
  872
  935
  1,002
  1,072
  1,147
  1,226
  1,309
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  37
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  80
  99
  118
  139
  160
  183
  207
  232
  259
  287
  309
  340
  373
  408
  445
  484
  526
  569
  615
  664
  716
  770
  827
  888
  952
  1,020
  1,092
  1,167
  1,247
  1,331
Change in working capital, $m
  -67
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  78
  98
  118
  138
  160
  182
  206
  231
  258
  286
  308
  339
  372
  407
  444
  483
  525
  568
  614
  663
  714
  769
  826
  887
  951
  1,018
  1,090
  1,165
  1,245
  1,329
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  69
  88
  107
  127
  148
  170
  193
  217
  243
  271
  292
  322
  355
  389
  425
  463
  503
  546
  591
  638
  688
  741
  797
  857
  919
  985
  1,055
  1,129
  1,206
  1,289
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  85
  105
  124
  145
  167
  190
  214
  239
  266
  295
  317
  348
  382
  417
  455
  494
  536
  580
  627
  676
  728
  783
  841
  902
  967
  1,036
  1,108
  1,184
  1,265
  1,350
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  84
  78
  96
  115
  136
  157
  180
  204
  229
  256
  276
  306
  338
  371
  406
  443
  483
  524
  568
  615
  664
  716
  770
  828
  889
  954
  1,022
  1,094
  1,170
  1,251
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  81
  71
  84
  95
  105
  114
  122
  128
  132
  134
  131
  131
  128
  125
  119
  113
  105
  97
  87
  78
  69
  59
  50
  42
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Amedisys, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides home health, and hospice and personal care services. The company’ Home Health segment offers a range of services in the homes of individuals who may be recovering from illness, injury, or surgery through its skilled nurses, physical and speech therapists, occupational therapists, and aides for its patients to complete their important personal tasks. Its Hospice segment offers care that is designed to provide comfort and support for those who are facing a terminal illness, including heart disease, pulmonary disease, Alzheimer’s, HIV/AIDS, and cancer. The company’ Personal Care segment provides private-duty services with nine care centers. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned and operated 329 Medicare-certified home health care centers and 79 Medicare-certified hospice care centers in 34 states within the United States and the District of Columbia. Amedisys, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amedisys (AMED)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.2
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 43.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 19.1%
Total Debt to Equity 20.2%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 38.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMED stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMED stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1437 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amedisys. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Amedisys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMED stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMED is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amedisys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amedisys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMED stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $565 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMED stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Amedisys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amedisys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMED stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMED are equal to 5.9%.

Life of production assets of 18.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amedisys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMED is equal to 0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $460 million for Amedisys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.941 million for Amedisys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amedisys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Thinly Traded Health Care Stock Tries To Resuscitate New Breakout   [May-24-17 11:16AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Amedisys to Present at May and June Healthcare Conferences   [May-09-17 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Amedisys tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-02-17 06:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amedisys, Inc. : April 25, 2017   [Apr-25-17 03:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Amedisys Welcomes David Mikula as Chief Development Officer   [Jan-30-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Smart Money Continues to Abandon Amedisys Inc (AMED)   [Dec-04-16 03:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Amedisys Reports Third Quarter Financial Results   [Nov-03-16 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Amedisys Previews Third Quarter 2016 Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] After the Floods, an Outpouring of Help From the CEO   [Sep-21-16 12:50AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Amedisys to Present at Investor Conferences   [Aug-30-16 12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CFO Moves: GoDaddy Names CFO, Amedisys CFO to Retire   [Aug-03-16 06:32PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Amedisys Reports Second Quarter Financial Results   [Aug-02-16 07:29PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of AMED Financial statements of AMED Annual reports of AMED
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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