Intrinsic value of Amedisys - AMED

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$52.63

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$52.63

 
Intrinsic value

$107.36

 
Up/down potential

+104%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMED stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.18
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  1,437
  1,556
  1,680
  1,809
  1,943
  2,082
  2,227
  2,378
  2,534
  2,697
  2,866
  3,042
  3,226
  3,417
  3,617
  3,825
  4,042
  4,269
  4,506
  4,754
  5,012
  5,283
  5,566
  5,863
  6,173
  6,498
  6,838
  7,195
  7,568
  7,960
  8,370
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  896
  965
  1,036
  1,111
  1,189
  1,269
  1,353
  1,440
  1,531
  1,625
  1,694
  1,796
  1,903
  2,014
  2,130
  2,251
  2,377
  2,509
  2,647
  2,791
  2,942
  3,100
  3,265
  3,438
  3,619
  3,808
  4,007
  4,215
  4,433
  4,661
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  579
  594
  608
  624
  639
  655
  672
  688
  706
  723
  741
  760
  779
  798
  818
  839
  860
  881
  903
  926
  949
  973
  997
  1,022
  1,047
  1,074
  1,101
  1,128
  1,156
  1,185
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,380
  1,475
  1,559
  1,644
  1,735
  1,828
  1,924
  2,025
  2,128
  2,237
  2,348
  2,435
  2,556
  2,682
  2,812
  2,948
  3,090
  3,237
  3,390
  3,550
  3,717
  3,891
  4,073
  4,262
  4,460
  4,666
  4,882
  5,108
  5,343
  5,589
  5,846
Operating income, $m
  57
  82
  122
  164
  209
  255
  303
  353
  406
  460
  518
  607
  670
  735
  804
  877
  952
  1,032
  1,115
  1,203
  1,295
  1,392
  1,494
  1,601
  1,713
  1,832
  1,956
  2,088
  2,226
  2,371
  2,524
EBITDA, $m
  77
  116
  156
  199
  244
  290
  339
  390
  443
  498
  556
  617
  680
  746
  816
  889
  966
  1,046
  1,130
  1,219
  1,312
  1,409
  1,512
  1,620
  1,734
  1,853
  1,979
  2,111
  2,250
  2,397
  2,551
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  78
  118
  160
  203
  248
  295
  345
  396
  450
  506
  594
  656
  721
  788
  859
  934
  1,012
  1,094
  1,180
  1,270
  1,366
  1,466
  1,571
  1,681
  1,798
  1,920
  2,049
  2,185
  2,328
  2,478
Tax expense, $m
  24
  21
  32
  43
  55
  67
  80
  93
  107
  122
  137
  160
  177
  195
  213
  232
  252
  273
  295
  319
  343
  369
  396
  424
  454
  485
  518
  553
  590
  628
  669
Net income, $m
  37
  57
  86
  117
  148
  181
  216
  252
  289
  329
  370
  434
  479
  526
  575
  627
  682
  739
  798
  861
  927
  997
  1,070
  1,147
  1,227
  1,312
  1,402
  1,496
  1,595
  1,699
  1,809

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  734
  763
  823
  886
  952
  1,020
  1,091
  1,165
  1,242
  1,321
  1,404
  1,491
  1,581
  1,674
  1,772
  1,874
  1,980
  2,092
  2,208
  2,329
  2,456
  2,588
  2,727
  2,872
  3,025
  3,184
  3,350
  3,525
  3,708
  3,900
  4,101
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  704
  763
  823
  886
  952
  1,020
  1,091
  1,165
  1,242
  1,321
  1,404
  1,491
  1,581
  1,674
  1,772
  1,874
  1,980
  2,092
  2,208
  2,329
  2,456
  2,588
  2,727
  2,872
  3,025
  3,184
  3,350
  3,525
  3,708
  3,900
  4,101
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.041
  2.039
  2.041
  2.042
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.040
  2.042
  2.041
  2.040
  2.040
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
  2.041
Average production assets, $m
  86
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  202
  213
  226
  238
  252
  266
  280
  296
  312
  328
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  447
  470
  494
Working capital, $m
  34
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Total debt, $m
  93
  110
  133
  158
  183
  209
  236
  264
  293
  324
  355
  388
  423
  459
  496
  535
  576
  618
  662
  709
  757
  808
  861
  916
  974
  1,035
  1,099
  1,166
  1,236
  1,309
  1,386
Total liabilities, $m
  274
  291
  314
  339
  364
  390
  417
  445
  474
  505
  536
  569
  604
  640
  677
  716
  757
  799
  843
  890
  938
  989
  1,042
  1,097
  1,155
  1,216
  1,280
  1,347
  1,417
  1,490
  1,567
Total equity, $m
  460
  471
  509
  548
  588
  631
  674
  720
  767
  817
  868
  921
  977
  1,035
  1,095
  1,158
  1,224
  1,293
  1,364
  1,439
  1,518
  1,600
  1,685
  1,775
  1,869
  1,968
  2,071
  2,179
  2,292
  2,410
  2,534
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  734
  762
  823
  887
  952
  1,021
  1,091
  1,165
  1,241
  1,322
  1,404
  1,490
  1,581
  1,675
  1,772
  1,874
  1,981
  2,092
  2,207
  2,329
  2,456
  2,589
  2,727
  2,872
  3,024
  3,184
  3,351
  3,526
  3,709
  3,900
  4,101
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.202
  0.230
  0.260
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.611
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  37
  57
  86
  117
  148
  181
  216
  252
  289
  329
  370
  434
  479
  526
  575
  627
  682
  739
  798
  861
  927
  997
  1,070
  1,147
  1,227
  1,312
  1,402
  1,496
  1,595
  1,699
  1,809
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  38
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  91
  121
  151
  183
  217
  252
  288
  326
  366
  408
  444
  489
  537
  587
  640
  695
  753
  813
  877
  944
  1,014
  1,088
  1,166
  1,248
  1,334
  1,424
  1,519
  1,620
  1,725
  1,836
Change in working capital, $m
  -67
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  89
  120
  151
  183
  216
  251
  287
  326
  365
  407
  443
  488
  536
  586
  638
  693
  751
  812
  875
  942
  1,012
  1,086
  1,164
  1,246
  1,332
  1,422
  1,517
  1,617
  1,723
  1,834
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  78
  108
  138
  169
  202
  236
  271
  309
  347
  388
  423
  468
  514
  563
  614
  668
  725
  784
  846
  911
  980
  1,052
  1,128
  1,208
  1,292
  1,381
  1,474
  1,572
  1,675
  1,784
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  100
  131
  162
  194
  228
  263
  299
  338
  378
  420
  456
  502
  550
  600
  653
  709
  767
  828
  892
  960
  1,031
  1,105
  1,184
  1,266
  1,353
  1,444
  1,541
  1,642
  1,748
  1,860
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  89
  93
  123
  153
  185
  219
  254
  290
  329
  369
  403
  446
  492
  540
  590
  643
  698
  756
  817
  881
  949
  1,020
  1,094
  1,172
  1,255
  1,341
  1,433
  1,529
  1,630
  1,736
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  85
  85
  107
  126
  144
  159
  172
  182
  189
  193
  191
  190
  187
  181
  173
  163
  152
  139
  126
  112
  98
  85
  72
  60
  49
  39
  31
  24
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Amedisys, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides home health, and hospice and personal care services. The company’ Home Health segment offers a range of services in the homes of individuals who may be recovering from illness, injury, or surgery through its skilled nurses, physical and speech therapists, occupational therapists, and aides for its patients to complete their important personal tasks. Its Hospice segment offers care that is designed to provide comfort and support for those who are facing a terminal illness, including heart disease, pulmonary disease, Alzheimer’s, HIV/AIDS, and cancer. The company’ Personal Care segment provides private-duty services with nine care centers. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned and operated 329 Medicare-certified home health care centers and 79 Medicare-certified hospice care centers in 34 states within the United States and the District of Columbia. Amedisys, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amedisys (AMED)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.8
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 19.1%
Total Debt to Equity 20.2%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
EBITDA Margin 5.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 38.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMED stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMED stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1437 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amedisys. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Amedisys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMED stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMED is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amedisys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amedisys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMED stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $565 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMED stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Amedisys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amedisys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMED stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMED are equal to 5.9%.

Life of production assets of 18.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amedisys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMED is equal to 0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $460 million for Amedisys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.275 million for Amedisys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amedisys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Amedisys Welcomes David Mikula as Chief Development Officer   [Jan-30-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Smart Money Continues to Abandon Amedisys Inc (AMED)   [Dec-04-16 03:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Amedisys Reports Third Quarter Financial Results   [Nov-03-16 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Amedisys Previews Third Quarter 2016 Results   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] After the Floods, an Outpouring of Help From the CEO   [Sep-21-16 12:50AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Amedisys to Present at Investor Conferences   [Aug-30-16 12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ CFO Moves: GoDaddy Names CFO, Amedisys CFO to Retire   [Aug-03-16 06:32PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Amedisys Reports Second Quarter Financial Results   [Aug-02-16 07:29PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of AMED Financial statements of AMED
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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