Intrinsic value of American Midstream Partners - AMID

Previous Close

$12.75

  Intrinsic Value

$3.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$12.75

 
Intrinsic value

$3.30

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMID stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.27
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  289
  303
  317
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  482
  505
  530
  556
  583
  612
  642
  673
  707
  742
  778
  817
  857
  900
  945
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  365
  380
  396
  413
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  538
  563
  590
  619
  649
  680
  713
  748
  785
  823
  864
  906
  951
  998
  1,047
  1,099
  1,154
  1,211
  1,271
  1,334
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  256
  365
  380
  396
  413
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  538
  563
  590
  619
  649
  680
  713
  748
  785
  823
  864
  906
  951
  998
  1,047
  1,099
  1,154
  1,211
  1,271
  1,334
Operating income, $m
  -23
  -122
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -354
  -371
  -390
EBITDA, $m
  23
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -354
  -372
  -390
  -410
  -431
  -452
  -475
  -499
  -524
  -550
  -578
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -3
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -354
  -372
  -390
  -410
  -431
  -452
  -475
  -499
  -524
  -550
  -578

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,349
  2,455
  2,562
  2,676
  2,796
  2,923
  3,057
  3,198
  3,347
  3,505
  3,670
  3,845
  4,029
  4,222
  4,426
  4,640
  4,865
  5,102
  5,351
  5,613
  5,889
  6,178
  6,482
  6,802
  7,138
  7,491
  7,862
  8,251
  8,660
  9,090
  9,542
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,343
  2,455
  2,562
  2,676
  2,796
  2,923
  3,057
  3,198
  3,347
  3,505
  3,670
  3,845
  4,029
  4,222
  4,426
  4,640
  4,865
  5,102
  5,351
  5,613
  5,889
  6,178
  6,482
  6,802
  7,138
  7,491
  7,862
  8,251
  8,660
  9,090
  9,542
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
Average production assets, $m
  1,069
  1,115
  1,164
  1,215
  1,270
  1,328
  1,388
  1,453
  1,520
  1,592
  1,667
  1,746
  1,830
  1,918
  2,010
  2,108
  2,210
  2,318
  2,431
  2,550
  2,675
  2,806
  2,944
  3,090
  3,242
  3,402
  3,571
  3,748
  3,934
  4,129
  4,334
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Total debt, $m
  1,241
  1,304
  1,370
  1,439
  1,513
  1,591
  1,674
  1,761
  1,853
  1,949
  2,051
  2,159
  2,272
  2,391
  2,516
  2,648
  2,786
  2,932
  3,085
  3,246
  3,416
  3,594
  3,781
  3,977
  4,184
  4,401
  4,629
  4,868
  5,120
  5,384
  5,662
Total liabilities, $m
  1,447
  1,510
  1,576
  1,645
  1,719
  1,797
  1,880
  1,967
  2,059
  2,155
  2,257
  2,365
  2,478
  2,597
  2,722
  2,854
  2,992
  3,138
  3,291
  3,452
  3,622
  3,800
  3,987
  4,183
  4,390
  4,607
  4,835
  5,074
  5,326
  5,590
  5,868
Total equity, $m
  902
  945
  986
  1,030
  1,076
  1,125
  1,177
  1,231
  1,289
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,551
  1,626
  1,704
  1,786
  1,873
  1,964
  2,060
  2,161
  2,267
  2,379
  2,496
  2,619
  2,748
  2,884
  3,027
  3,177
  3,334
  3,500
  3,674
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,349
  2,455
  2,562
  2,675
  2,795
  2,922
  3,057
  3,198
  3,348
  3,504
  3,670
  3,845
  4,029
  4,223
  4,426
  4,640
  4,865
  5,102
  5,351
  5,613
  5,889
  6,179
  6,483
  6,802
  7,138
  7,491
  7,862
  8,251
  8,660
  9,090
  9,542
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.376
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
  1.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.382
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385
  0.385

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -354
  -372
  -390
  -410
  -431
  -452
  -475
  -499
  -524
  -550
  -578
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -320
  -337
  -354
  -372
  -390
  -410
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  45
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -407
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
New CAPEX, $m
  -123
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -551
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -273
  -286
  -300
  -315
  -331
  -347
  -365
Free cash flow, $m
  -506
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -428
  -450
  -472
  -496
  -521
  -547
  -575
  -604
  -634
  -666
  -700
  -735
  -772
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  537
  68
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
  264
  278
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  37
  209
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  278
  290
  304
  296
  311
  326
  343
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
  483
  508
  533
  560
  588
  618
  649
  682
  716
  752
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  573
  277
  279
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  370
  387
  406
  403
  424
  445
  468
  492
  517
  543
  570
  599
  629
  661
  695
  730
  767
  805
  846
  889
  934
  980
  1,030
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  67
  90
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  116
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
  201
  212
  222
  233
  245
  258
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -615
  -209
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -278
  -290
  -304
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -397
  -417
  -438
  -460
  -483
  -508
  -533
  -560
  -588
  -618
  -649
  -682
  -716
  -752
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -118
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -368
  -387
  -406
  -427
  -448
  -471
  -494
Discount rate, %
 
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -107
  -106
  -99
  -91
  -83
  -75
  -66
  -58
  -51
  -43
  -36
  -30
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  75.9
  58.0
  44.3
  33.9
  25.9
  19.8
  15.1
  11.6
  8.8
  6.8
  5.3
  4.1
  3.2
  2.5
  1.9
  1.5
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0

American Midstream Partners, LP owns, operates, develops and acquires a portfolio of midstream energy assets. The Company provides midstream infrastructure that links producers of natural gas, crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), condensate and specialty chemicals to numerous intermediate and end-use markets. Its segments include gathering and processing, transmission and terminals. Through its segments, it is engaged in the business of gathering, treating, processing, and transporting natural gas; gathering, transporting, storing, treating and fractionating NGLs; gathering, storing and transporting crude oil and condensates, and storing specialty chemical products. Its gathering and processing assets are primarily located in the Permian Basin of West Texas; the Cotton Valley/Haynesville Shale of East Texas; the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas; the Bakken Shale of North Dakota, and offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American Midstream Partners (AMID)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -221.1
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -8.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 35.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 137%
Total Debt to Equity 137.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.2%
Return On Equity -0.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.3%
EBITDA Margin 27.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Operating Margin -9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.2%
Net Profit Margin -1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29%
Effective Tax Rate 200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.4%
Payout Ratio -2133.3%

AMID stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMID stock intrinsic value calculation we used $233 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American Midstream Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American Midstream Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMID stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for AMID is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American Midstream Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American Midstream Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMID stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 150.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMID stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for American Midstream Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American Midstream Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMID stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMID are equal to 458.8%.

Life of production assets of 25.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American Midstream Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMID is equal to -7.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $902 million for American Midstream Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.76 million for American Midstream Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American Midstream Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ These 10 MLPs Offer the Highest Yields   [Sep-21-17 02:09PM  Market Realist]
▶ Shipping Magnate Bets On Oil's Recovery---Energy Journal   [Jun-27-17 08:13AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ American Midstream Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-10-17 06:58AM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Deal Close Announcements: March 6-10   [Mar-10-17 04:54PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Smaller MLPs May Outperform in 2017   [Mar-02-17 10:28AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ What Smart Money Thinks of American Midstream Partners LP (AMID)?   [Dec-20-16 04:59PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ American Midstream Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Nov-07-16 08:07PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of AMID
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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