Intrinsic value of Amkor Technology - AMKR

Previous Close

$10.86

  Intrinsic Value

$13.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+27%

Previous close

$10.86

 
Intrinsic value

$13.79

 
Up/down potential

+27%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMKR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.97
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  3,894
  4,069
  4,254
  4,450
  4,656
  4,874
  5,103
  5,345
  5,599
  5,867
  6,149
  6,446
  6,758
  7,086
  7,431
  7,794
  8,176
  8,577
  8,999
  9,442
  9,908
  10,397
  10,912
  11,452
  12,019
  12,616
  13,242
  13,900
  14,591
  15,316
  16,078
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,455
  3,612
  3,778
  3,953
  4,137
  4,332
  4,537
  4,753
  4,980
  5,219
  5,468
  5,733
  6,012
  6,305
  6,613
  6,937
  7,277
  7,635
  8,011
  8,406
  8,821
  9,257
  9,716
  10,197
  10,703
  11,234
  11,792
  12,378
  12,994
  13,641
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  308
  315
  323
  331
  339
  348
  357
  366
  375
  384
  394
  403
  414
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
  480
  492
  504
  516
  529
  543
  556
  570
  584
  599
  614
  629
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,600
  3,763
  3,927
  4,101
  4,284
  4,476
  4,680
  4,894
  5,119
  5,355
  5,603
  5,862
  6,136
  6,426
  6,729
  7,047
  7,382
  7,733
  8,103
  8,491
  8,898
  9,325
  9,773
  10,245
  10,740
  11,259
  11,804
  12,376
  12,977
  13,608
  14,270
Operating income, $m
  294
  307
  327
  349
  372
  397
  423
  451
  481
  512
  546
  584
  621
  661
  703
  747
  794
  844
  897
  952
  1,011
  1,073
  1,138
  1,207
  1,280
  1,357
  1,438
  1,523
  1,613
  1,708
  1,808
EBITDA, $m
  849
  847
  891
  939
  989
  1,043
  1,099
  1,159
  1,222
  1,289
  1,360
  1,434
  1,513
  1,596
  1,684
  1,776
  1,874
  1,976
  2,084
  2,198
  2,319
  2,445
  2,578
  2,719
  2,866
  3,022
  3,186
  3,358
  3,539
  3,730
  3,931
Interest expense (income), $m
  87
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  221
  235
  250
  266
  282
  299
  318
  337
  357
  378
  400
  424
  448
  474
  501
  529
Earnings before tax, $m
  215
  225
  238
  253
  268
  285
  303
  322
  342
  363
  386
  413
  439
  466
  496
  527
  559
  594
  631
  670
  711
  755
  801
  850
  902
  956
  1,014
  1,075
  1,139
  1,207
  1,279
Tax expense, $m
  48
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  243
  258
  274
  290
  308
  326
  345
Net income, $m
  164
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  235
  250
  265
  282
  302
  320
  341
  362
  384
  408
  434
  461
  489
  519
  551
  585
  620
  658
  698
  740
  785
  832
  881
  934

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  550
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,092
  3,703
  3,871
  4,049
  4,237
  4,435
  4,643
  4,863
  5,095
  5,338
  5,595
  5,865
  6,149
  6,448
  6,762
  7,092
  7,440
  7,805
  8,188
  8,592
  9,016
  9,461
  9,929
  10,420
  10,937
  11,479
  12,049
  12,648
  13,276
  13,937
  14,630
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,542
  3,703
  3,871
  4,049
  4,237
  4,435
  4,643
  4,863
  5,095
  5,338
  5,595
  5,865
  6,149
  6,448
  6,762
  7,092
  7,440
  7,805
  8,188
  8,592
  9,016
  9,461
  9,929
  10,420
  10,937
  11,479
  12,049
  12,648
  13,276
  13,937
  14,630
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
  1.099
Average production assets, $m
  2,572
  2,686
  2,808
  2,937
  3,073
  3,217
  3,368
  3,527
  3,695
  3,872
  4,058
  4,254
  4,460
  4,677
  4,905
  5,144
  5,396
  5,661
  5,939
  6,232
  6,539
  6,862
  7,202
  7,558
  7,933
  8,326
  8,740
  9,174
  9,630
  10,109
  10,612
Working capital, $m
  404
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -274
  -287
  -302
  -316
  -332
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -466
Total debt, $m
  1,475
  1,563
  1,690
  1,824
  1,966
  2,115
  2,273
  2,439
  2,613
  2,797
  2,991
  3,195
  3,410
  3,635
  3,872
  4,122
  4,384
  4,660
  4,949
  5,254
  5,574
  5,910
  6,263
  6,634
  7,024
  7,434
  7,864
  8,316
  8,791
  9,289
  9,813
Total liabilities, $m
  2,709
  2,796
  2,923
  3,057
  3,199
  3,348
  3,506
  3,672
  3,846
  4,030
  4,224
  4,428
  4,643
  4,868
  5,105
  5,355
  5,617
  5,893
  6,182
  6,487
  6,807
  7,143
  7,496
  7,867
  8,257
  8,667
  9,097
  9,549
  10,024
  10,522
  11,046
Total equity, $m
  1,384
  907
  948
  992
  1,038
  1,086
  1,138
  1,191
  1,248
  1,308
  1,371
  1,437
  1,507
  1,580
  1,657
  1,738
  1,823
  1,912
  2,006
  2,105
  2,209
  2,318
  2,433
  2,553
  2,679
  2,812
  2,952
  3,099
  3,253
  3,414
  3,584
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,093
  3,703
  3,871
  4,049
  4,237
  4,434
  4,644
  4,863
  5,094
  5,338
  5,595
  5,865
  6,150
  6,448
  6,762
  7,093
  7,440
  7,805
  8,188
  8,592
  9,016
  9,461
  9,929
  10,420
  10,936
  11,479
  12,049
  12,648
  13,277
  13,936
  14,630
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.066
  1.720
  1.780
  1.840
  1.890
  1.950
  2.000
  2.050
  2.090
  2.140
  2.180
  2.220
  2.260
  2.300
  2.340
  2.370
  2.410
  2.440
  2.470
  2.500
  2.520
  2.550
  2.570
  2.600
  2.620
  2.640
  2.660
  2.680
  2.700
  2.720
  2.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.235
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  164
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  235
  250
  265
  282
  302
  320
  341
  362
  384
  408
  434
  461
  489
  519
  551
  585
  620
  658
  698
  740
  785
  832
  881
  934
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  555
  540
  564
  590
  617
  646
  676
  708
  741
  777
  814
  851
  892
  935
  981
  1,029
  1,079
  1,132
  1,188
  1,246
  1,308
  1,372
  1,440
  1,512
  1,587
  1,665
  1,748
  1,835
  1,926
  2,022
  2,122
Funds from operations, $m
  742
  704
  738
  774
  813
  854
  897
  943
  991
  1,042
  1,096
  1,152
  1,212
  1,276
  1,343
  1,413
  1,488
  1,566
  1,648
  1,735
  1,827
  1,924
  2,025
  2,132
  2,245
  2,363
  2,488
  2,619
  2,758
  2,903
  3,056
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from operations, $m
  729
  709
  743
  780
  819
  860
  904
  950
  998
  1,050
  1,104
  1,161
  1,222
  1,285
  1,353
  1,424
  1,499
  1,578
  1,661
  1,748
  1,841
  1,938
  2,040
  2,148
  2,261
  2,381
  2,506
  2,638
  2,778
  2,924
  3,078
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -514
  -537
  -562
  -587
  -615
  -643
  -674
  -705
  -739
  -774
  -812
  -851
  -892
  -935
  -981
  -1,029
  -1,079
  -1,132
  -1,188
  -1,246
  -1,308
  -1,372
  -1,440
  -1,512
  -1,587
  -1,665
  -1,748
  -1,835
  -1,926
  -2,022
New CAPEX, $m
  -650
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -293
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -503
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -589
  -628
  -659
  -691
  -723
  -759
  -794
  -833
  -873
  -916
  -960
  -1,008
  -1,057
  -1,109
  -1,163
  -1,221
  -1,281
  -1,344
  -1,410
  -1,481
  -1,553
  -1,631
  -1,711
  -1,797
  -1,887
  -1,980
  -2,078
  -2,182
  -2,291
  -2,405
  -2,525
Free cash flow, $m
  140
  80
  84
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
  165
  177
  190
  203
  218
  233
  250
  268
  287
  307
  328
  351
  375
  401
  428
  456
  487
  519
  553
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -119
  123
  127
  134
  142
  149
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  226
  237
  249
  262
  276
  290
  304
  320
  336
  353
  371
  390
  410
  430
  452
  475
  499
  524
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -112
  123
  127
  134
  142
  149
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  226
  237
  249
  262
  276
  290
  304
  320
  336
  353
  371
  390
  410
  430
  452
  475
  499
  524
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  203
  211
  224
  237
  251
  267
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
  379
  402
  427
  453
  480
  509
  540
  572
  607
  643
  681
  722
  765
  810
  858
  908
  962
  1,018
  1,077
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -184
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  515
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  680
  170
  180
  191
  203
  215
  229
  243
  258
  275
  291
  310
  329
  350
  372
  395
  420
  446
  474
  503
  534
  567
  602
  638
  677
  718
  762
  807
  856
  907
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  652
  156
  157
  157
  157
  156
  155
  152
  148
  144
  138
  132
  125
  117
  109
  100
  91
  82
  73
  64
  55
  47
  39
  33
  26
  21
  16
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Amkor Technology, Inc. is a provider of outsourced semiconductor packaging and test services. The Company's packaging and test services are designed to meet application and chip specific requirements, including the type of interconnect technology; size, thickness and electrical, and mechanical and thermal performance. It provides packaging and test services, including semiconductor wafer bump, wafer probe, wafer backgrind, package design, packaging, system-level, and final test and drop shipment services. The Company provides its services to integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), fabless semiconductor companies and contract foundries. IDMs design, manufacture, package and test semiconductors in their own facilities. The Company offers a range of advanced and mainstream packaging and test services. The Company's mainstream packages include leadframe packages, substrate-based wirebond packages and micro-electro-mechanical systems packages.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amkor Technology (AMKR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.8
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 35%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 104%
Total Debt to Equity 106.6%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
EBITDA Margin 22%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Operating Margin 7.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Net Profit Margin 4.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 22.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMKR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMKR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3894 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amkor Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Amkor Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMKR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMKR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amkor Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amkor Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMKR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $300 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMKR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Amkor Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amkor Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMKR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMKR are equal to 66%.

Life of production assets of 4.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amkor Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMKR is equal to -2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1384 million for Amkor Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 242.786 million for Amkor Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amkor Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Amkor Technology to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Nov-21-17 07:35PM  Business Wire]
▶ Amkor Technology posts 3Q profit   [Oct-30-17 05:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amkor Technology to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Aug-31-17 07:40PM  Business Wire]
▶ An Easy-To-Use Cheat Sheet For Apple Suppliers   [Aug-10-17 08:42AM  Benzinga]
▶ Why Amkor Technology Stock Fell on Tuesday   [Aug-01-17 05:51PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Amkor Technology posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 09:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amkor Technology to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Jun-01-17 06:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Amkor Technology Completes Acquisition of NANIUM   [May-22-17 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Amkor Technology reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Post Earnings Coverage as Amkor Revenue Soared 52%   [Feb-21-17 08:15AM  Accesswire]
Financial statements of AMKR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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