Intrinsic value of AMN Healthcare Services - AMN

Previous Close

$38.70

  Intrinsic Value

$46.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+20%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$38.70

 
Intrinsic value

$46.26

 
Up/down potential

+20%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  30.01
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  1,902
  2,012
  2,127
  2,248
  2,373
  2,504
  2,641
  2,785
  2,934
  3,091
  3,255
  3,427
  3,607
  3,796
  3,993
  4,200
  4,417
  4,644
  4,883
  5,133
  5,395
  5,670
  5,959
  6,261
  6,579
  6,912
  7,261
  7,628
  8,013
  8,417
  8,841
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,727
  1,823
  1,924
  2,030
  2,140
  2,256
  2,376
  2,502
  2,634
  2,772
  2,882
  3,034
  3,192
  3,358
  3,532
  3,715
  3,906
  4,107
  4,317
  4,537
  4,769
  5,011
  5,266
  5,533
  5,813
  6,107
  6,415
  6,739
  7,079
  7,436
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,711
  1,809
  1,907
  2,010
  2,118
  2,231
  2,349
  2,471
  2,599
  2,734
  2,874
  2,987
  3,142
  3,302
  3,471
  3,648
  3,834
  4,028
  4,232
  4,445
  4,668
  4,903
  5,149
  5,407
  5,678
  5,961
  6,259
  6,571
  6,899
  7,243
  7,604
Operating income, $m
  192
  204
  220
  237
  255
  273
  293
  313
  335
  357
  381
  440
  466
  493
  522
  552
  583
  617
  652
  688
  727
  767
  810
  854
  901
  951
  1,002
  1,057
  1,114
  1,174
  1,238
EBITDA, $m
  222
  254
  271
  289
  307
  327
  348
  369
  392
  416
  440
  467
  494
  523
  553
  585
  618
  653
  689
  728
  769
  811
  856
  903
  952
  1,004
  1,059
  1,116
  1,177
  1,240
  1,307
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
Earnings before tax, $m
  176
  191
  206
  221
  238
  254
  272
  291
  310
  331
  352
  409
  433
  458
  484
  511
  540
  570
  602
  635
  670
  707
  746
  787
  830
  875
  922
  972
  1,024
  1,079
  1,137
Tax expense, $m
  70
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  277
  291
  307
Net income, $m
  106
  140
  150
  162
  173
  186
  199
  212
  227
  242
  257
  299
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  464
  489
  516
  545
  574
  606
  639
  673
  710
  748
  788
  830

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,187
  1,244
  1,316
  1,390
  1,468
  1,549
  1,633
  1,722
  1,815
  1,912
  2,013
  2,119
  2,231
  2,347
  2,469
  2,597
  2,732
  2,872
  3,020
  3,174
  3,336
  3,507
  3,685
  3,872
  4,068
  4,274
  4,491
  4,717
  4,956
  5,205
  5,468
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,176
  1,244
  1,316
  1,390
  1,468
  1,549
  1,633
  1,722
  1,815
  1,912
  2,013
  2,119
  2,231
  2,347
  2,469
  2,597
  2,732
  2,872
  3,020
  3,174
  3,336
  3,507
  3,685
  3,872
  4,068
  4,274
  4,491
  4,717
  4,956
  5,205
  5,468
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.617
  1.617
  1.616
  1.617
  1.616
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
  1.617
Average production assets, $m
  266
  282
  298
  315
  332
  351
  370
  390
  411
  433
  456
  480
  505
  531
  559
  588
  618
  650
  684
  719
  755
  794
  834
  877
  921
  968
  1,017
  1,068
  1,122
  1,178
  1,238
Working capital, $m
  176
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
  290
  305
  321
  338
  355
  374
  393
  413
  435
  457
  480
  505
  530
  557
  586
  615
  646
  679
  713
  749
  787
Total debt, $m
  363
  402
  446
  492
  541
  591
  644
  700
  757
  818
  881
  948
  1,017
  1,090
  1,166
  1,246
  1,330
  1,417
  1,509
  1,606
  1,707
  1,813
  1,924
  2,041
  2,164
  2,292
  2,427
  2,569
  2,717
  2,873
  3,037
Total liabilities, $m
  738
  777
  821
  867
  916
  966
  1,019
  1,075
  1,132
  1,193
  1,256
  1,323
  1,392
  1,465
  1,541
  1,621
  1,705
  1,792
  1,884
  1,981
  2,082
  2,188
  2,299
  2,416
  2,539
  2,667
  2,802
  2,944
  3,092
  3,248
  3,412
Total equity, $m
  449
  468
  495
  523
  552
  582
  614
  647
  682
  719
  757
  797
  839
  883
  929
  977
  1,027
  1,080
  1,135
  1,194
  1,255
  1,318
  1,386
  1,456
  1,530
  1,607
  1,688
  1,774
  1,863
  1,957
  2,056
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,187
  1,245
  1,316
  1,390
  1,468
  1,548
  1,633
  1,722
  1,814
  1,912
  2,013
  2,120
  2,231
  2,348
  2,470
  2,598
  2,732
  2,872
  3,019
  3,175
  3,337
  3,506
  3,685
  3,872
  4,069
  4,274
  4,490
  4,718
  4,955
  5,205
  5,468
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.808
  0.860
  0.900
  0.940
  0.980
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.372
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  106
  140
  150
  162
  173
  186
  199
  212
  227
  242
  257
  299
  316
  334
  353
  373
  394
  416
  439
  464
  489
  516
  545
  574
  606
  639
  673
  710
  748
  788
  830
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
Funds from operations, $m
  115
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  325
  344
  364
  384
  406
  428
  452
  477
  504
  531
  560
  591
  623
  657
  692
  730
  769
  810
  853
  899
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Cash from operations, $m
  132
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  270
  286
  302
  310
  328
  347
  367
  387
  409
  432
  456
  481
  508
  536
  565
  596
  629
  663
  699
  736
  776
  817
  861
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -257
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -124
Free cash flow, $m
  -125
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  261
  276
  292
  309
  327
  346
  366
  387
  408
  431
  456
  481
  507
  535
  565
  596
  628
  663
  699
  736
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  150
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  126
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  191
  203
  216
  228
  242
  255
  270
  285
  302
  318
  327
  346
  365
  386
  407
  430
  454
  479
  505
  533
  562
  592
  624
  658
  693
  731
  770
  811
  854
  900
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -101
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  172
  177
  188
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  287
  304
  321
  340
  359
  379
  401
  423
  447
  472
  498
  525
  554
  584
  616
  649
  685
  722
  761
  801
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  163
  157
  155
  153
  149
  145
  139
  132
  125
  117
  105
  96
  87
  78
  68
  60
  51
  43
  36
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. provides healthcare workforce solutions and staffing services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Nurse and Allied Solutions, Locum Tenens Solutions, and Other Workforce Solutions. Its services include travel nurse staffing under the American Mobile, Onward Healthcare, Nurses Rx, and O’Grady-Peyton brands; rapid response nurse staffing and labor disruption services, a shorter-term staffing solution for four to eight weeks under the NurseChoice brand; local, or per diem, staffing for daily shift work or on as-needed basis under the Nursefinders brand; and locum tenens staffing for specialties, clinicians, and dentists on an independent contractor basis on temporary assignments from a few days up to one year under the Staff Care and Locum Leaders brands. The company also offers allied staffing on a travel and local staffing basis under the Med Travelers and Club Staffing brands; physician permanent placement services under the Merritt Hawkins, MillicanSolutions, and Kendall & Davis brands to hospitals, healthcare facilities, and physician practice groups; vendor management systems, including ShiftWise and Medefis technologies; recruitment process outsourcing for permanent staffing; and workforce optimization services comprising consulting, data analytics, predictive modeling, and SaaS-based scheduling technology under the Smart Square brand, as well as interim leadership staffing and executive search services, and managed services programs. AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AMN Healthcare Services (AMN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 80%
Total Debt to Equity 80.8%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 16.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Return On Equity 26.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 10%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 39.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1902 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AMN Healthcare Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AMN Healthcare Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for AMN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AMN Healthcare Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AMN Healthcare Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $80 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AMN Healthcare Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AMN Healthcare Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMN are equal to 14%.

Life of production assets of 18 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AMN Healthcare Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMN is equal to 8.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $449 million for AMN Healthcare Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.101 million for AMN Healthcare Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AMN Healthcare Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ AMN Healthcare beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ AMN Healthcare Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:19PM  PR Newswire]
▶ AMN Healthcare tops Street 1Q forecasts   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ AMN Healthcare Announces First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:21PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Locum Leaders Names Bonnie Britton as President   [Dec-19-16 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ President-elect Trump puts Obamacares future up in the air   [Nov-10-16 09:46AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ AMN Healthcare Keeps Looking Healthier   [08:32AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of AMN Financial statements of AMN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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