Intrinsic value of Amphastar Pharmaceuticals - AMPH

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$15.47

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$15.47

 
Intrinsic value

$1.78

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMPH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.19
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  255
  260
  266
  273
  281
  289
  298
  309
  320
  331
  344
  358
  372
  388
  404
  422
  440
  460
  480
  502
  525
  550
  575
  602
  631
  661
  693
  726
  761
  798
  836
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  306
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  513
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  676
  708
  742
  778
  816
  855
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  239
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  306
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  513
  537
  562
  588
  616
  645
  676
  708
  742
  778
  816
  855
Operating income, $m
  16
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
EBITDA, $m
  31
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Tax expense, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  11
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  73
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  428
  362
  371
  380
  391
  403
  416
  430
  445
  462
  479
  498
  519
  540
  563
  587
  613
  640
  669
  699
  732
  766
  801
  839
  879
  921
  965
  1,011
  1,060
  1,111
  1,165
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  355
  362
  371
  380
  391
  403
  416
  430
  445
  462
  479
  498
  519
  540
  563
  587
  613
  640
  669
  699
  732
  766
  801
  839
  879
  921
  965
  1,011
  1,060
  1,111
  1,165
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.718
  0.718
  0.717
  0.718
  0.719
  0.717
  0.716
  0.719
  0.719
  0.716
  0.718
  0.719
  0.717
  0.719
  0.718
  0.719
  0.718
  0.719
  0.717
  0.718
  0.717
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
Average production assets, $m
  189
  192
  197
  202
  207
  214
  221
  228
  236
  245
  254
  264
  275
  287
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  512
  536
  562
  590
  618
Working capital, $m
  123
  56
  57
  59
  61
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  181
Total debt, $m
  38
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  109
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  172
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  248
Total liabilities, $m
  98
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  309
Total equity, $m
  329
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  306
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  451
  471
  492
  514
  538
  563
  589
  617
  646
  677
  709
  743
  779
  817
  856
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  427
  362
  370
  380
  391
  403
  416
  430
  445
  461
  479
  498
  518
  540
  563
  588
  613
  641
  669
  699
  732
  766
  801
  839
  879
  921
  965
  1,011
  1,060
  1,111
  1,165
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.116
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.721
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735
  0.735

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Funds from operations, $m
  39
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  39
  17
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -40
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -2
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  21
  0
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  2
  19
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  78
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  0
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -33
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  97.1
  94.1
  91.0
  87.9
  84.8
  81.6
  78.5
  75.4
  72.4
  69.4
  66.4
  63.6
  60.8
  58.1
  55.5
  53.0
  50.6
  48.2
  46.0
  43.8
  41.7
  39.8
  37.8
  36.0
  34.3
  32.6
  31.0
  29.5
  28.0

Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of generic and proprietary injectable, inhalation, and intranasal products. It operates in two segments, Finished Pharmaceutical Products and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients. The company’s product portfolio comprises Enoxaparin, a low molecular weight heparin that is used as an anticoagulant for prevention and treatment of deep vein thrombosis; Cortrosyn, a lyophilized powder for use as a diagnostic agent in the screening of patients presumed with adrenocortical insufficiency; Amphadase, a bovine-sourced hyaluronidase injection for the dispersion and absorption of other injected drugs; and Lidocaine jelly, a local anesthetic product used primarily for urological procedures. It also provides Lidocaine topical solution, a local anesthetic for various procedures; phytonadione injection for newborn babies; syringe products, which include critical care drugs, such as morphine, atropine, calcium chloride, dextrose, lidocaine, naloxone, and sodium bicarbonate for emergency use in hospital settings; and epinephrine in vial form; and lorazepam injection, a sedative for surgery and medical procedures. In addition, the company develops Primatene Mist HFA, an over-the-counter epinephrine inhalation product candidate that is intended to be used for the temporary relief of mild symptoms of intermittent asthma; and active pharmaceutical ingredients, such as recombinant human insulin and porcine insulin. Further, it has a pipeline of 21 generic and proprietary product candidates in various stages of development for various indications. The company’s products are used in hospital or urgent care clinical settings, and primarily contracted and distributed through group purchasing organizations and drug wholesalers. The company was established in 1996 and is headquartered in Rancho Cucamonga, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amphastar Pharmaceuticals (AMPH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 65
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 15
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 10%
Total Debt to Equity 11.6%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity 3.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Operating Margin 6.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 26.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMPH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMPH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $255 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amphastar Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Amphastar Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMPH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AMPH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amphastar Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMPH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 102.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMPH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMPH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMPH are equal to 73.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amphastar Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMPH is equal to 21.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $329 million for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.562 million for Amphastar Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amphastar Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Amphastar beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-08-17 05:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amphastar reports 4Q loss   [Mar-13-17 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Drug Addiction Treatment Stocks to Watch   [Feb-22-17 03:52PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ FDA Rejects Amphastar's Nasal Opioid Overdose Drug   [Feb-21-17 02:25PM  at Investopedia]
▶ [$$] FDA Denies Amphastar's New Primatene Mist Inhaler   [05:52PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Amphastar Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMPH)?   [Dec-12-16 02:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ These 3 stocks are set up for big breakouts   [Aug-23-16 09:04AM  at MarketWatch]
Stock chart of AMPH Financial statements of AMPH Annual reports of AMPH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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