Intrinsic value of Ameresco - AMRC

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$7.15

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.17
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  651
  644
  658
  675
  694
  715
  738
  764
  791
  820
  852
  885
  921
  960
  1,000
  1,043
  1,089
  1,137
  1,189
  1,243
  1,300
  1,360
  1,424
  1,491
  1,561
  1,635
  1,714
  1,796
  1,883
  1,974
  2,070
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  629
  644
  660
  678
  699
  721
  746
  772
  800
  831
  858
  892
  929
  969
  1,011
  1,055
  1,102
  1,151
  1,204
  1,259
  1,317
  1,379
  1,444
  1,512
  1,584
  1,660
  1,740
  1,824
  1,912
  2,005
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  627
  629
  644
  660
  678
  699
  721
  746
  772
  800
  831
  858
  892
  929
  969
  1,011
  1,055
  1,102
  1,151
  1,204
  1,259
  1,317
  1,379
  1,444
  1,512
  1,584
  1,660
  1,740
  1,824
  1,912
  2,005
Operating income, $m
  24
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
EBITDA, $m
  48
  37
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  9
Tax expense, $m
  4
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
Net income, $m
  12
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  797
  715
  732
  750
  771
  795
  821
  848
  879
  911
  946
  984
  1,024
  1,066
  1,111
  1,159
  1,210
  1,264
  1,321
  1,381
  1,444
  1,511
  1,582
  1,656
  1,735
  1,817
  1,904
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,300
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  776
  715
  732
  750
  771
  795
  821
  848
  879
  911
  946
  984
  1,024
  1,066
  1,111
  1,159
  1,210
  1,264
  1,321
  1,381
  1,444
  1,511
  1,582
  1,656
  1,735
  1,817
  1,904
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,300
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.839
  0.901
  0.899
  0.900
  0.900
  0.899
  0.899
  0.901
  0.900
  0.900
  0.901
  0.899
  0.899
  0.901
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
Average production assets, $m
  168
  124
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  147
  153
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  288
  301
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
Working capital, $m
  35
  77
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
Total debt, $m
  160
  109
  119
  130
  143
  157
  173
  189
  207
  227
  248
  270
  294
  320
  347
  375
  406
  438
  472
  508
  546
  586
  628
  673
  720
  770
  822
  876
  934
  995
  1,059
Total liabilities, $m
  503
  428
  438
  449
  462
  476
  492
  508
  526
  546
  567
  589
  613
  639
  666
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  905
  947
  992
  1,039
  1,089
  1,141
  1,195
  1,253
  1,314
  1,378
Total equity, $m
  294
  287
  293
  301
  309
  319
  329
  340
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  428
  446
  465
  485
  507
  530
  554
  579
  606
  634
  664
  696
  729
  764
  800
  839
  880
  922
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  797
  715
  731
  750
  771
  795
  821
  848
  878
  911
  946
  983
  1,023
  1,067
  1,112
  1,159
  1,210
  1,264
  1,321
  1,381
  1,444
  1,511
  1,581
  1,656
  1,735
  1,818
  1,905
  1,995
  2,092
  2,194
  2,300
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.544
  0.380
  0.410
  0.430
  0.460
  0.490
  0.520
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.650
  0.690
  0.720
  0.750
  0.780
  0.810
  0.840
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.352
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Funds from operations, $m
  -164
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
Change in working capital, $m
  -106
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  -58
  -88
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -80
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Free cash flow, $m
  -138
  -106
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  95
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  137
  103
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  -98
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  10
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8
  75.8

Ameresco, Inc. provides comprehensive services, energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, asset sustainability, and renewable energy solutions for businesses and organizations in North America and Europe. The company operates through U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, and Small-Scale Infrastructure segments. It designs, develops, engineers, and installs projects that reduce the energy, and operations and maintenance costs of facilities. The company’s projects primarily include various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and lighting systems. It also provides renewable energy products and services, including the construction of small-scale plants for customers that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources of energy; and sells electricity and processed LFG, heat, or cooling. In addition, the company offers enterprise energy management and consulting services; and sells solar photovoltaic (PV) energy products and systems. It serves governments, healthcare and educational institutions, housing authorities, and commercial and industrial customers. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned and operated 49 small-scale renewable energy plants and solar PV installations. Ameresco, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ameresco (AMRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.5
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 48%
Total Debt to Equity 54.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 4.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $631 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ameresco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ameresco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for AMRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ameresco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ameresco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Ameresco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ameresco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMRC are equal to 19.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ameresco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMRC is equal to 11.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $290 million for Ameresco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.877 million for Ameresco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ameresco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 02:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ameresco Inc Profits Shrink, but Backlog Grows   [May-03-17 02:36PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ameresco reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 03:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Ameresco Stock Jumped 26% in March   [Apr-06-17 11:51AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ameresco Blows by Earnings Estimates, Shares Surge   [Mar-02-17 11:28AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ameresco to Present at 29th Annual ROTH Conference   [Feb-27-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ This Is How Ameresco Inc (AMRC) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 06:13PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ameresco to Participate in MEUC Year-End Meeting   [Dec-07-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ameresco to Attend Investor Conferences in December   [Nov-29-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ameresco to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jul-27-16 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ameresco Boosts Public Sector Offering with Framework Wins   [Jun-07-16 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ameresco Inc Stock Up 19% After Earnings: What to Know   [May-05-16 02:03PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of AMRC Financial statements of AMRC Annual reports of AMRC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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