Intrinsic value of Ameresco - AMRC

Previous Close

$8.45

  Intrinsic Value

$8.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+1%

Previous close

$8.45

 
Intrinsic value

$8.55

 
Up/down potential

+1%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMRC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.17
  2.50
  2.75
  2.97
  3.18
  3.36
  3.52
  3.67
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.22
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.70
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  651
  667
  686
  706
  728
  753
  779
  808
  839
  872
  907
  944
  984
  1,026
  1,071
  1,119
  1,169
  1,222
  1,278
  1,337
  1,399
  1,465
  1,534
  1,607
  1,684
  1,765
  1,850
  1,939
  2,033
  2,132
  2,237
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  132
  135
  139
  144
  148
  153
  159
  164
  171
  177
  179
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  367
  385
  403
  423
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  524
  537
  550
  564
  578
  593
  607
  623
  638
  654
  670
  687
  704
  722
  740
  759
  778
  797
  817
  837
  858
  880
  902
  924
  947
  971
  995
  1,020
  1,046
  1,072
Total operating expenses, $m
  627
  656
  672
  689
  708
  726
  746
  766
  787
  809
  831
  849
  873
  898
  925
  952
  980
  1,009
  1,039
  1,070
  1,102
  1,135
  1,170
  1,206
  1,242
  1,281
  1,321
  1,362
  1,405
  1,449
  1,495
Operating income, $m
  24
  12
  13
  16
  21
  27
  34
  42
  52
  63
  75
  95
  111
  128
  147
  167
  189
  213
  239
  267
  297
  330
  364
  402
  441
  484
  529
  577
  629
  684
  742
EBITDA, $m
  48
  36
  38
  42
  47
  53
  61
  70
  81
  93
  106
  121
  138
  156
  176
  198
  221
  247
  274
  304
  336
  370
  406
  446
  487
  532
  580
  631
  685
  742
  803
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  4
  5
  8
  12
  16
  23
  30
  39
  49
  60
  78
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  186
  210
  236
  264
  294
  326
  361
  398
  437
  480
  525
  573
  624
  678
Tax expense, $m
  4
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  21
  25
  29
  34
  39
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  88
  97
  107
  118
  129
  142
  155
  168
  183
Net income, $m
  12
  3
  4
  6
  8
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  44
  57
  68
  79
  91
  105
  120
  136
  154
  172
  193
  215
  238
  263
  290
  319
  350
  383
  418
  455
  495

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  797
  795
  817
  842
  868
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,039
  1,081
  1,126
  1,173
  1,223
  1,277
  1,333
  1,393
  1,456
  1,523
  1,593
  1,668
  1,746
  1,829
  1,916
  2,007
  2,103
  2,205
  2,311
  2,424
  2,542
  2,666
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  776
  795
  817
  842
  868
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,039
  1,081
  1,126
  1,173
  1,223
  1,277
  1,333
  1,393
  1,456
  1,523
  1,593
  1,668
  1,746
  1,829
  1,916
  2,007
  2,103
  2,205
  2,311
  2,424
  2,542
  2,666
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.839
  0.839
  0.840
  0.838
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.838
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
  0.839
Average production assets, $m
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  194
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  289
  302
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  434
  455
  477
  500
  525
  550
  577
Working capital, $m
  35
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
Total debt, $m
  160
  153
  167
  182
  199
  217
  237
  258
  281
  305
  331
  359
  389
  420
  454
  489
  526
  566
  607
  651
  698
  747
  798
  852
  909
  970
  1,033
  1,099
  1,169
  1,243
  1,320
Total liabilities, $m
  503
  496
  510
  525
  542
  560
  580
  601
  624
  648
  674
  702
  732
  763
  797
  832
  869
  909
  950
  994
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
  1,313
  1,376
  1,442
  1,512
  1,586
  1,663
Total equity, $m
  294
  299
  307
  316
  326
  337
  349
  362
  376
  391
  406
  423
  441
  460
  480
  501
  524
  548
  573
  599
  627
  657
  688
  720
  755
  791
  829
  869
  911
  956
  1,002
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  797
  795
  817
  841
  868
  897
  929
  963
  1,000
  1,039
  1,080
  1,125
  1,173
  1,223
  1,277
  1,333
  1,393
  1,457
  1,523
  1,593
  1,668
  1,747
  1,829
  1,915
  2,007
  2,104
  2,205
  2,311
  2,423
  2,542
  2,665
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.544
  0.510
  0.540
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.680
  0.710
  0.750
  0.780
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.352
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376
  0.376

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  3
  4
  6
  8
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  44
  57
  68
  79
  91
  105
  120
  136
  154
  172
  193
  215
  238
  263
  290
  319
  350
  383
  418
  455
  495
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
Funds from operations, $m
  -164
  27
  29
  31
  34
  38
  44
  50
  57
  65
  74
  83
  95
  107
  121
  136
  152
  170
  189
  209
  231
  255
  280
  307
  337
  368
  401
  436
  474
  514
  557
Change in working capital, $m
  -106
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  -58
  26
  28
  30
  33
  37
  42
  48
  55
  64
  73
  81
  92
  105
  118
  133
  149
  167
  186
  206
  228
  252
  277
  304
  333
  364
  396
  432
  469
  509
  551
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -76
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -80
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -86
Free cash flow, $m
  -138
  4
  5
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  25
  32
  40
  47
  56
  67
  79
  92
  106
  121
  138
  156
  175
  196
  219
  243
  269
  296
  326
  358
  392
  428
  466
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  118
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  137
  16
  18
  18
  19
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  21
  23
  24
  26
  29
  35
  41
  48
  56
  66
  75
  86
  98
  112
  127
  143
  161
  179
  200
  222
  245
  270
  297
  326
  357
  389
  424
  462
  501
  543
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  14
  15
  16
  18
  23
  28
  34
  42
  50
  58
  68
  79
  92
  106
  121
  137
  154
  173
  194
  216
  239
  264
  291
  320
  351
  384
  419
  457
  497
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  13
  13
  13
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  21
  20
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.0
  97.9
  97.1
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8
  96.8

Ameresco, Inc. (Ameresco) is a provider of a range of energy services, including energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability and renewable energy solutions for businesses and organizations throughout North America and Europe. Ameresco's sustainability services include capital and operational upgrades to a facility's energy infrastructure and the development, construction, ownership and operation of renewable energy plants. Its segments include U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, Small-Scale Infrastructure and All Other. Its U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal and Canada segments offer energy efficiency products and services. Its Small-Scale Infrastructure segment sells electricity, processed renewable gas fuel, heat or cooling, produced from renewable sources of energy and generated by small-scale plants that it owns. The All Other segment offers enterprise energy management services, consulting services and integrated-photovoltaic (PV).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ameresco (AMRC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 48%
Total Debt to Equity 54.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Equity 4.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Operating Margin 3.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 25%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMRC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMRC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $651 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ameresco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ameresco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMRC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for AMRC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ameresco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ameresco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMRC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 19.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $511 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMRC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Ameresco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ameresco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMRC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMRC are equal to 25.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ameresco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMRC is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $294 million for Ameresco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.527 million for Ameresco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ameresco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 12:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 11:33AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 11:49AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ameresco posts 3Q profit   [06:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : October 25, 2017   [Oct-25-17 09:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : September 27, 2017   [Sep-27-17 10:23AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : September 9, 2017   [Sep-08-17 11:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ameresco posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 09:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 02:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 02:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ameresco Inc Profits Shrink, but Backlog Grows   [May-03-17 02:36PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ameresco reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ameresco, Inc. : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 03:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Ameresco Stock Jumped 26% in March   [Apr-06-17 11:51AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ameresco Blows by Earnings Estimates, Shares Surge   [Mar-02-17 11:28AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ameresco to Present at 29th Annual ROTH Conference   [Feb-27-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ This Is How Ameresco Inc (AMRC) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 06:13PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ameresco to Participate in MEUC Year-End Meeting   [Dec-07-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ameresco to Attend Investor Conferences in December   [Nov-29-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of AMRC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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