Intrinsic value of Amyris - AMRS

Previous Close

$5.00

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$5.00

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMRS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  97.06
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  370
  379
  389
  399
  412
  425
  439
  455
  472
  490
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  626
  654
  684
  715
  748
  782
  819
  857
  898
  941
  986
  1,033
  1,083
  1,135
  1,190
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  167
  370
  379
  389
  399
  412
  425
  439
  455
  472
  490
  509
  530
  552
  575
  600
  626
  654
  684
  715
  748
  782
  819
  857
  898
  941
  986
  1,033
  1,083
  1,135
  1,190
Operating income, $m
  -100
  -302
  -309
  -317
  -326
  -336
  -346
  -358
  -371
  -385
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -450
  -469
  -489
  -511
  -533
  -557
  -583
  -610
  -638
  -668
  -699
  -732
  -767
  -804
  -842
  -883
  -926
  -971
EBITDA, $m
  -89
  -291
  -298
  -305
  -314
  -323
  -334
  -345
  -357
  -371
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -434
  -452
  -471
  -492
  -514
  -537
  -562
  -587
  -615
  -643
  -674
  -705
  -739
  -774
  -812
  -851
  -892
  -935
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  10
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  -97
  -312
  -307
  -315
  -324
  -334
  -345
  -357
  -370
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -451
  -470
  -491
  -512
  -536
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -642
  -672
  -704
  -738
  -773
  -810
  -850
  -891
  -934
  -980
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -97
  -312
  -307
  -315
  -324
  -334
  -345
  -357
  -370
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -451
  -470
  -491
  -512
  -536
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -642
  -672
  -704
  -738
  -773
  -810
  -850
  -891
  -934
  -980

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  130
  103
  105
  108
  111
  115
  118
  122
  127
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  316
  331
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  101
  103
  105
  108
  111
  115
  118
  122
  127
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  316
  331
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.663
  0.660
  0.667
  0.667
  0.667
  0.661
  0.661
  0.664
  0.661
  0.664
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.663
  0.665
  0.667
  0.665
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.661
  0.662
  0.661
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.663
  0.662
  0.665
  0.665
Average production assets, $m
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
Working capital, $m
  -51
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
Total debt, $m
  194
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -10
  -6
  -2
  3
  8
  13
  18
  24
  30
  37
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  165
  178
Total liabilities, $m
  314
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  285
  298
Total equity, $m
  -184
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  130
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  127
  131
  137
  142
  148
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  288
  301
  317
  331
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.054
  -2.640
  -2.380
  -2.090
  -1.790
  -1.470
  -1.150
  -0.810
  -0.470
  -0.140
  0.200
  0.540
  0.870
  1.190
  1.510
  1.820
  2.120
  2.410
  2.700
  2.970
  3.240
  3.490
  3.740
  3.970
  4.200
  4.420
  4.630
  4.830
  5.020
  5.200
  5.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.109
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -97
  -312
  -307
  -315
  -324
  -334
  -345
  -357
  -370
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -451
  -470
  -491
  -512
  -536
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -642
  -672
  -704
  -738
  -773
  -810
  -850
  -891
  -934
  -980
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
Funds from operations, $m
  -71
  -301
  -296
  -304
  -312
  -322
  -333
  -344
  -357
  -370
  -385
  -400
  -417
  -434
  -453
  -473
  -494
  -516
  -540
  -565
  -591
  -619
  -648
  -679
  -711
  -745
  -781
  -819
  -859
  -901
  -945
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  -82
  -300
  -295
  -302
  -311
  -320
  -331
  -342
  -354
  -368
  -382
  -397
  -414
  -431
  -450
  -469
  -490
  -512
  -535
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -642
  -673
  -705
  -739
  -774
  -812
  -851
  -893
  -937
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  6
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -40
  -43
Free cash flow, $m
  -76
  -311
  -307
  -315
  -324
  -334
  -345
  -357
  -370
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -450
  -470
  -490
  -512
  -535
  -559
  -585
  -612
  -641
  -671
  -703
  -737
  -772
  -809
  -849
  -890
  -933
  -979
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  82
  -195
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  509
  308
  316
  325
  335
  346
  358
  371
  385
  400
  416
  433
  451
  471
  491
  513
  536
  561
  587
  614
  643
  673
  705
  739
  774
  812
  851
  892
  936
  982
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  92
  314
  310
  318
  328
  338
  349
  362
  375
  389
  405
  421
  438
  457
  477
  497
  520
  543
  568
  595
  622
  652
  682
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
  904
  949
  996
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -509
  -308
  -316
  -325
  -335
  -346
  -358
  -371
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -433
  -451
  -471
  -491
  -513
  -536
  -561
  -587
  -614
  -643
  -673
  -705
  -739
  -774
  -812
  -851
  -892
  -936
  -982
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -504
  -305
  -313
  -321
  -331
  -342
  -353
  -366
  -380
  -394
  -410
  -427
  -445
  -464
  -484
  -505
  -528
  -552
  -577
  -604
  -632
  -662
  -693
  -727
  -761
  -798
  -837
  -877
  -920
  -965
Discount rate, %
 
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.65
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.91
  30.36
  31.88
  33.47
  35.14
  36.90
  38.75
  40.68
  42.72
  44.85
  47.10
  49.45
  51.92
  54.52
  57.25
  60.11
  63.11
  66.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -434
  -223
  -191
  -162
  -135
  -111
  -90
  -71
  -56
  -42
  -32
  -23
  -16
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  1.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Amyris, Inc. is an integrated industrial biotechnology company. The Company is engaged in research and development and sales of fuels and farnesene-derived products. It is applying its industrial synthetic biology platform to engineer, manufacture and sell products into a range of consumer and industrial markets, including cosmetics, flavors and fragrances (F&F), solvents and cleaners, polymers, lubricants, healthcare products and fuels. The Company focuses on a renewable hydrocarbon molecule called farnesene (Biofene). The Company is expanding its range of products across various categories divided into consumer and industrial applications. For consumer applications, the Company is developing and selling personal care products (which include ingredients for cosmetics and F&F), healthcare products and formulated end user products, such as Biossance brand skincare products and Muck Daddy brand hand cleaner product.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amyris (AMRS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.9
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book -0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 97.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -34%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -91.3%
Total Debt to Equity -105.4%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -73.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -66.6%
Return On Total Capital -3880%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1432%
Return On Equity 56.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
EBITDA Margin -113.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -203.4%
Operating Margin -149.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -282.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -144.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -252.4%
Net Profit Margin -144.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -260.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMRS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMRS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $67 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amyris. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Amyris. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMRS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16.1%, whose default value for AMRS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amyris, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amyris.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMRS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 541.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMRS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Amyris.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amyris. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMRS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMRS are equal to 85.1%.

Life of production assets of 5.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amyris operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMRS is equal to -80.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-184 million for Amyris - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.459 million for Amyris is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amyris at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Amyris Announces Over $25 Million in Grants   [Jan-17-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amyris, Inc. : December 11, 2017   [Dec-11-17 01:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amyris, Inc. : November 30, 2017   [Nov-30-17 01:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Amyris reports 3Q loss   [Nov-16-17 05:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Amyris, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [11:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Should You Worry About Amyris Incs (AMRS) CEO Pay?   [Nov-08-17 12:19PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amyris, Inc. : October 27, 2017   [Oct-27-17 10:43AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amyris, Inc. : October 12, 2017   [Oct-12-17 10:17AM  Capital Cube]
▶ How Does Amyris Inc (AMRS) Affect Your Portfolio Returns?   [Sep-30-17 07:47PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amyris, Inc. : September 28, 2017   [Sep-28-17 10:09AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amyris, Inc. : September 13, 2017   [Sep-13-17 05:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Amyris, Inc. : August 31, 2017   [Aug-31-17 05:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Amyris posts 2Q profit   [Aug-10-17 09:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amyris Biossance Launches in SEPHORA Canada Stores   [Jul-26-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of AMRS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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