Intrinsic value of Aemetis - AMTX

Previous Close

$1.08

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-61%

Previous close

$1.08

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-61%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AMTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.72
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  143
  146
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  427
  447
  469
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  142
  156
  160
  164
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  502
Operating income, $m
  1
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
EBITDA, $m
  6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  -16
  -16
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -16
  -16
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  78
  80
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  77
  80
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.857
  1.825
  1.840
  1.843
  1.826
  1.841
  1.835
  1.840
  1.827
  1.842
  1.838
  1.844
  1.833
  1.824
  1.831
  1.829
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.831
  1.832
  1.833
  1.835
  1.837
  1.834
  1.837
  1.830
  1.833
  1.833
  1.832
  1.832
Average production assets, $m
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Working capital, $m
  -20
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Total debt, $m
  115
  59
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  207
  217
Total liabilities, $m
  128
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  220
  230
Total equity, $m
  -50
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  78
  80
  81
  83
  86
  89
  91
  94
  98
  101
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  153
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  244
  256
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.300
  7.370
  7.400
  7.440
  7.490
  7.530
  7.580
  7.620
  7.670
  7.720
  7.770
  7.810
  7.860
  7.900
  7.950
  7.990
  8.030
  8.080
  8.120
  8.150
  8.190
  8.230
  8.260
  8.290
  8.330
  8.360
  8.390
  8.410
  8.440
  8.470
  8.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.649
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -16
  -16
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  -10
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  -10
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -17
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  -56
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  73
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  44
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  17
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  41
  42
  45
  47
  50
  51
  55
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -73
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -73
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
Discount rate, %
 
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.65
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.91
  30.36
  31.88
  33.47
  35.14
  36.90
  38.75
  40.68
  42.72
  44.85
  47.10
  49.45
  51.92
  54.52
  57.25
  60.11
  63.11
  66.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -63
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  18.7
  7.0
  2.6
  1.0
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Aemetis, Inc. operates as an international renewable fuels and biochemicals company in North America and India. It focuses on the production of advanced fuels and chemicals through the acquisition, development, and commercialization of technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products by conversion of first-generation ethanol and biodiesel plants into advanced biorefineries. The company owns and operates a biodiesel plant in Kakinada, India; and an ethanol plant in Keyes, California. Aemetis, Inc. sells biodiesel and glycerin to resellers, distributors, and refiners through its sales force and independent sales agents, as well as to brokers who resell the product to end-users. It also produces ethanol; and wet distillers grains, corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed. The company was formerly known as AE Biofuels, Inc. and changed its name to Aemetis, Inc. in November 2011. Aemetis, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aemetis (AMTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.3
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -0.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -21.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -202%
Total Debt to Equity -230%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -13.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
Return On Total Capital -23.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.3%
Return On Equity 37.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
EBITDA Margin -4.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Operating Margin 0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Net Profit Margin -11.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

AMTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AMTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $143 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aemetis. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Aemetis. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AMTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16.1%, whose default value for AMTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aemetis, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aemetis.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AMTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AMTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Aemetis.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aemetis. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AMTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AMTX are equal to 48.3%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aemetis operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AMTX is equal to -4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-50 million for Aemetis - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.874 million for Aemetis is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aemetis at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Investor Network: AEMETIS INC to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-10-17 11:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aemetis, Inc. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aemetis, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: AEMETIS INC to Host Earnings Call   [May-11-17 11:00AM  Accesswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aemetis, Inc. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aemetis, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 03:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Aemetis reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 07:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aemetis, Inc. : January 20, 2017   [Jan-20-17 12:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 6 Stocks to Gain from Obama's Economic Legacy   [Jan-11-17 02:34PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Aemetis, Inc. : December 22, 2016   [Dec-22-16 10:23AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Lydia I. Beebe Joins Aemetis Board of Directors   [Nov-17-16 08:45AM  Accesswire]
▶ Aemetis Awards Stock Option   [Sep-30-16 07:00PM  Accesswire]
▶ [$$] Aemetis to Acquire Edeniq in Latest Cleantech Disappointment   [May-09-16 06:00PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Term Sheet Friday, May 7   [May-06-16 10:08AM  at Fortune]
▶ Aemetis CEO to Present at 28th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-09-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Aemetis CEO to Present at LD Micro Conference   [Dec-02  08:30AM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of AMTX Financial statements of AMTX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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