Intrinsic value of American National Insurance - ANAT

Previous Close

$118.81

  Intrinsic Value

$339.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+186%

Previous close

$118.81

 
Intrinsic value

$339.64

 
Up/down potential

+186%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ANAT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANAT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.50
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  0
  3,310
  3,410
  3,520
  3,639
  3,769
  3,908
  4,058
  4,218
  4,389
  4,571
  4,765
  4,970
  5,188
  5,418
  5,662
  5,919
  6,191
  6,478
  6,780
  7,099
  7,435
  7,789
  8,162
  8,554
  8,966
  9,401
  9,857
  10,338
  10,843
  11,373
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,019
  3,110
  3,210
  3,319
  3,437
  3,564
  3,701
  3,847
  4,003
  4,169
  4,345
  4,533
  4,731
  4,941
  5,164
  5,398
  5,646
  5,908
  6,184
  6,474
  6,781
  7,104
  7,443
  7,801
  8,177
  8,573
  8,990
  9,428
  9,888
  10,373
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,021
  3,019
  3,110
  3,210
  3,319
  3,437
  3,564
  3,701
  3,847
  4,003
  4,169
  4,345
  4,533
  4,731
  4,941
  5,164
  5,398
  5,646
  5,908
  6,184
  6,474
  6,781
  7,104
  7,443
  7,801
  8,177
  8,573
  8,990
  9,428
  9,888
  10,373
Operating income, $m
  199
  291
  300
  310
  320
  332
  344
  357
  371
  386
  402
  419
  437
  457
  477
  498
  521
  545
  570
  597
  625
  654
  685
  718
  753
  789
  827
  867
  910
  954
  1,001
EBITDA, $m
  244
  291
  300
  310
  320
  332
  344
  357
  371
  386
  402
  419
  437
  457
  477
  498
  521
  545
  570
  597
  625
  654
  685
  718
  753
  789
  827
  867
  910
  954
  1,001
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  5
  25
  47
  71
  97
  125
  155
  187
  222
  259
  298
  340
  385
  432
  481
  534
  590
  649
  711
  776
  845
  918
  995
  1,075
  1,160
  1,249
  1,343
  1,442
  1,546
  1,655
Earnings before tax, $m
  199
  287
  275
  263
  250
  235
  219
  202
  184
  164
  143
  121
  97
  72
  45
  17
  -13
  -45
  -79
  -114
  -152
  -191
  -233
  -276
  -322
  -371
  -422
  -476
  -532
  -592
  -655
Tax expense, $m
  74
  77
  74
  71
  67
  63
  59
  55
  50
  44
  39
  33
  26
  19
  12
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  181
  209
  201
  192
  182
  172
  160
  148
  134
  120
  105
  88
  71
  53
  33
  12
  -13
  -45
  -79
  -114
  -152
  -191
  -233
  -276
  -322
  -371
  -422
  -476
  -532
  -592
  -655

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  24,533
  25,268
  26,032
  26,869
  27,782
  28,770
  29,835
  30,977
  32,200
  33,505
  34,895
  36,372
  37,940
  39,601
  41,360
  43,219
  45,185
  47,260
  49,449
  51,758
  54,192
  56,757
  59,458
  62,303
  65,296
  68,446
  71,761
  75,247
  78,913
  82,767
  86,820
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  24,533
  25,268
  26,032
  26,869
  27,782
  28,770
  29,835
  30,977
  32,200
  33,505
  34,895
  36,372
  37,940
  39,601
  41,360
  43,219
  45,185
  47,260
  49,449
  51,758
  54,192
  56,757
  59,458
  62,303
  65,296
  68,446
  71,761
  75,247
  78,913
  82,767
  86,820
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  136
  722
  1,341
  2,019
  2,758
  3,559
  4,421
  5,347
  6,337
  7,394
  8,520
  9,717
  10,986
  12,332
  13,756
  15,263
  16,855
  18,535
  20,309
  22,179
  24,151
  26,228
  28,416
  30,720
  33,145
  35,697
  38,381
  41,205
  44,174
  47,297
  50,579
Total liabilities, $m
  19,881
  20,467
  21,086
  21,764
  22,503
  23,304
  24,166
  25,092
  26,082
  27,139
  28,265
  29,462
  30,731
  32,077
  33,501
  35,008
  36,600
  38,280
  40,054
  41,924
  43,896
  45,973
  48,161
  50,465
  52,890
  55,442
  58,126
  60,950
  63,919
  67,042
  70,324
Total equity, $m
  4,652
  4,801
  4,946
  5,105
  5,279
  5,466
  5,669
  5,886
  6,118
  6,366
  6,630
  6,911
  7,209
  7,524
  7,858
  8,212
  8,585
  8,979
  9,395
  9,834
  10,297
  10,784
  11,297
  11,837
  12,406
  13,005
  13,635
  14,297
  14,993
  15,726
  16,496
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  24,533
  25,268
  26,032
  26,869
  27,782
  28,770
  29,835
  30,978
  32,200
  33,505
  34,895
  36,373
  37,940
  39,601
  41,359
  43,220
  45,185
  47,259
  49,449
  51,758
  54,193
  56,757
  59,458
  62,302
  65,296
  68,447
  71,761
  75,247
  78,912
  82,768
  86,820
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.029
  0.150
  0.270
  0.400
  0.520
  0.650
  0.780
  0.910
  1.040
  1.160
  1.290
  1.410
  1.520
  1.640
  1.750
  1.860
  1.960
  2.060
  2.160
  2.260
  2.350
  2.430
  2.520
  2.600
  2.670
  2.740
  2.810
  2.880
  2.950
  3.010
  3.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  181
  209
  201
  192
  182
  172
  160
  148
  134
  120
  105
  88
  71
  53
  33
  12
  -13
  -45
  -79
  -114
  -152
  -191
  -233
  -276
  -322
  -371
  -422
  -476
  -532
  -592
  -655
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  585
  209
  201
  192
  182
  172
  160
  148
  134
  120
  105
  88
  71
  53
  33
  12
  -13
  -45
  -79
  -114
  -152
  -191
  -233
  -276
  -322
  -371
  -422
  -476
  -532
  -592
  -655
Change in working capital, $m
  183
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  402
  209
  201
  192
  182
  172
  160
  148
  134
  120
  105
  88
  71
  53
  33
  12
  -13
  -45
  -79
  -114
  -152
  -191
  -233
  -276
  -322
  -371
  -422
  -476
  -532
  -592
  -655
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -555
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -153
  209
  201
  192
  182
  172
  160
  148
  134
  120
  105
  88
  71
  53
  33
  12
  -13
  -45
  -79
  -114
  -152
  -191
  -233
  -276
  -322
  -371
  -422
  -476
  -532
  -592
  -655
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  586
  618
  679
  739
  800
  862
  926
  991
  1,057
  1,126
  1,196
  1,270
  1,346
  1,424
  1,506
  1,592
  1,681
  1,774
  1,870
  1,972
  2,077
  2,188
  2,304
  2,425
  2,552
  2,685
  2,824
  2,970
  3,122
  3,283
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  16
  42
  69
  98
  128
  159
  192
  227
  263
  301
  341
  387
  439
  495
  553
  614
  678
  746
  817
  891
  970
  1,052
  1,138
  1,229
  1,324
  1,425
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  220
  586
  618
  679
  739
  816
  904
  995
  1,089
  1,185
  1,285
  1,388
  1,497
  1,609
  1,725
  1,847
  1,979
  2,120
  2,269
  2,423
  2,586
  2,755
  2,934
  3,121
  3,316
  3,522
  3,737
  3,962
  4,199
  4,446
  4,708
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  66
  796
  819
  870
  921
  988
  1,065
  1,143
  1,223
  1,305
  1,390
  1,477
  1,568
  1,661
  1,759
  1,860
  1,965
  2,075
  2,190
  2,309
  2,434
  2,565
  2,701
  2,844
  2,994
  3,150
  3,314
  3,486
  3,666
  3,855
  4,053
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -200
  -149
  -145
  -159
  -173
  -188
  -202
  -217
  -232
  -248
  -264
  -281
  -298
  -316
  -334
  -353
  -387
  -439
  -495
  -553
  -614
  -678
  -746
  -817
  -891
  -970
  -1,052
  -1,138
  -1,229
  -1,324
  -1,425
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  647
  674
  711
  748
  800
  862
  926
  991
  1,057
  1,126
  1,196
  1,270
  1,346
  1,424
  1,506
  1,579
  1,636
  1,695
  1,756
  1,820
  1,886
  1,955
  2,027
  2,102
  2,181
  2,262
  2,348
  2,437
  2,530
  2,628
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  620
  617
  619
  616
  620
  626
  625
  619
  607
  590
  568
  542
  512
  478
  442
  401
  356
  312
  270
  231
  195
  162
  133
  107
  85
  66
  50
  38
  28
  20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.6
  98.5
  96.8
  94.5
  91.8
  88.6
  85.1
  81.3
  77.3
  73.1
  68.8
  64.5
  60.1
  55.7
  51.4
  47.2
  43.1
  39.2
  35.6
  32.1
  28.9
  25.9
  23.1
  20.6
  18.3
  16.2

American National Insurance Company is engaged in life insurance, annuities, and property and casualty insurance. The Company also offers limited health insurance. Its family of companies includes six life insurance companies, eight property and casualty insurance companies, and various non-insurance subsidiaries. Its business segments include Life, which offers products, such as Whole Life, Term Life, Universal Life, Variable Universal Life and Credit Life Insurance; Annuity, including products, such as Deferred Annuity, Single Premium Immediate Annuity and Variable Annuity; Health, including, such as Medicare Supplement, Supplemental Insurance, Stop-Loss, Credit Disability and Medical Expense; Property and Casualty, which offers products, such as Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Credit-Related Property Insurance products, and Corporate and Other, which consists of its invested assets that are not used to support insurance activities, and non-insurance subsidiaries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American National Insurance (ANAT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 2.9%
Total Debt to Equity 2.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 48.6%

ANAT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANAT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3220 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American National Insurance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American National Insurance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANAT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANAT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American National Insurance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American National Insurance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANAT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANAT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for American National Insurance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American National Insurance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANAT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANAT are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American National Insurance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANAT is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4652 million for American National Insurance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.934 million for American National Insurance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American National Insurance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Houston-area insurance company names new CFO   [Aug-24-17 04:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-03-17 03:23PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Insurance posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-28-17 01:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Insurance posts 1Q profit   [Apr-24-17 03:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-02-17 01:04PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Insurance posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-17 06:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying American National Insurance Company (ANAT)   [Dec-09-16 06:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-03-16 03:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-04-16 02:16PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of ANAT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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