Intrinsic value of American National Insurance - ANAT

Previous Close

$128.19

  Intrinsic Value

$393.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+207%

Previous close

$128.19

 
Intrinsic value

$393.05

 
Up/down potential

+207%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ANAT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANAT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.50
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  0
  3,365
  3,518
  3,680
  3,850
  4,030
  4,220
  4,419
  4,630
  4,851
  5,085
  5,330
  5,588
  5,860
  6,145
  6,445
  6,761
  7,093
  7,442
  7,808
  8,193
  8,598
  9,023
  9,470
  9,939
  10,432
  10,950
  11,494
  12,065
  12,665
  13,296
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,069
  3,208
  3,356
  3,511
  3,675
  3,848
  4,031
  4,222
  4,424
  4,637
  4,861
  5,096
  5,344
  5,604
  5,878
  6,166
  6,469
  6,787
  7,121
  7,472
  7,841
  8,229
  8,636
  9,064
  9,514
  9,986
  10,482
  11,003
  11,551
  12,126
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,021
  3,069
  3,208
  3,356
  3,511
  3,675
  3,848
  4,031
  4,222
  4,424
  4,637
  4,861
  5,096
  5,344
  5,604
  5,878
  6,166
  6,469
  6,787
  7,121
  7,472
  7,841
  8,229
  8,636
  9,064
  9,514
  9,986
  10,482
  11,003
  11,551
  12,126
Operating income, $m
  199
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  427
  447
  469
  492
  516
  541
  567
  595
  624
  655
  687
  721
  757
  794
  833
  875
  918
  964
  1,011
  1,062
  1,115
  1,170
EBITDA, $m
  244
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  371
  389
  407
  427
  447
  469
  492
  516
  541
  567
  595
  624
  655
  687
  721
  757
  794
  833
  875
  918
  964
  1,011
  1,062
  1,115
  1,170
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  5
  37
  70
  105
  142
  181
  222
  265
  311
  359
  409
  462
  518
  577
  639
  704
  772
  844
  919
  999
  1,082
  1,170
  1,262
  1,358
  1,460
  1,567
  1,679
  1,796
  1,920
  2,050
Earnings before tax, $m
  199
  291
  272
  254
  234
  212
  190
  167
  142
  116
  89
  60
  29
  -3
  -36
  -72
  -109
  -148
  -189
  -232
  -278
  -325
  -376
  -428
  -484
  -542
  -603
  -667
  -735
  -805
  -880
Tax expense, $m
  74
  79
  74
  68
  63
  57
  51
  45
  38
  31
  24
  16
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  181
  213
  199
  185
  171
  155
  139
  122
  104
  85
  65
  44
  21
  -3
  -36
  -72
  -109
  -148
  -189
  -232
  -278
  -325
  -376
  -428
  -484
  -542
  -603
  -667
  -735
  -805
  -880

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  24,533
  25,686
  26,855
  28,089
  29,391
  30,764
  32,212
  33,737
  35,343
  37,034
  38,814
  40,687
  42,657
  44,730
  46,909
  49,201
  51,611
  54,143
  56,805
  59,603
  62,543
  65,632
  68,878
  72,288
  75,870
  79,633
  83,586
  87,739
  92,100
  96,681
  101,492
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  24,533
  25,686
  26,855
  28,089
  29,391
  30,764
  32,212
  33,737
  35,343
  37,034
  38,814
  40,687
  42,657
  44,730
  46,909
  49,201
  51,611
  54,143
  56,805
  59,603
  62,543
  65,632
  68,878
  72,288
  75,870
  79,633
  83,586
  87,739
  92,100
  96,681
  101,492
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
  0.131
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  136
  1,061
  2,008
  3,007
  4,062
  5,174
  6,346
  7,582
  8,883
  10,252
  11,694
  13,211
  14,807
  16,486
  18,252
  20,108
  22,060
  24,111
  26,267
  28,533
  30,915
  33,417
  36,046
  38,808
  41,710
  44,758
  47,960
  51,323
  54,856
  58,567
  62,464
Total liabilities, $m
  19,881
  20,806
  21,753
  22,752
  23,807
  24,919
  26,091
  27,327
  28,628
  29,997
  31,439
  32,956
  34,552
  36,231
  37,997
  39,853
  41,805
  43,856
  46,012
  48,278
  50,660
  53,162
  55,791
  58,553
  61,455
  64,503
  67,705
  71,068
  74,601
  78,312
  82,209
Total equity, $m
  4,652
  4,880
  5,102
  5,337
  5,584
  5,845
  6,120
  6,410
  6,715
  7,036
  7,375
  7,730
  8,105
  8,499
  8,913
  9,348
  9,806
  10,287
  10,793
  11,325
  11,883
  12,470
  13,087
  13,735
  14,415
  15,130
  15,881
  16,670
  17,499
  18,369
  19,284
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  24,533
  25,686
  26,855
  28,089
  29,391
  30,764
  32,211
  33,737
  35,343
  37,033
  38,814
  40,686
  42,657
  44,730
  46,910
  49,201
  51,611
  54,143
  56,805
  59,603
  62,543
  65,632
  68,878
  72,288
  75,870
  79,633
  83,586
  87,738
  92,100
  96,681
  101,493
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.029
  0.220
  0.390
  0.560
  0.730
  0.890
  1.040
  1.180
  1.320
  1.460
  1.590
  1.710
  1.830
  1.940
  2.050
  2.150
  2.250
  2.340
  2.430
  2.520
  2.600
  2.680
  2.750
  2.830
  2.890
  2.960
  3.020
  3.080
  3.130
  3.190
  3.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  181
  213
  199
  185
  171
  155
  139
  122
  104
  85
  65
  44
  21
  -3
  -36
  -72
  -109
  -148
  -189
  -232
  -278
  -325
  -376
  -428
  -484
  -542
  -603
  -667
  -735
  -805
  -880
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  585
  213
  199
  185
  171
  155
  139
  122
  104
  85
  65
  44
  21
  -3
  -36
  -72
  -109
  -148
  -189
  -232
  -278
  -325
  -376
  -428
  -484
  -542
  -603
  -667
  -735
  -805
  -880
Change in working capital, $m
  183
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  402
  213
  199
  185
  171
  155
  139
  122
  104
  85
  65
  44
  21
  -3
  -36
  -72
  -109
  -148
  -189
  -232
  -278
  -325
  -376
  -428
  -484
  -542
  -603
  -667
  -735
  -805
  -880
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -555
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -153
  213
  199
  185
  171
  155
  139
  122
  104
  85
  65
  44
  21
  -3
  -36
  -72
  -109
  -148
  -189
  -232
  -278
  -325
  -376
  -428
  -484
  -542
  -603
  -667
  -735
  -805
  -880
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  925
  947
  1,000
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235
  1,301
  1,370
  1,442
  1,517
  1,596
  1,679
  1,766
  1,856
  1,952
  2,052
  2,156
  2,266
  2,381
  2,502
  2,629
  2,762
  2,902
  3,048
  3,202
  3,363
  3,533
  3,711
  3,897
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  16
  23
  49
  77
  106
  136
  168
  201
  237
  274
  312
  353
  396
  450
  507
  567
  629
  695
  764
  836
  912
  992
  1,076
  1,164
  1,257
  1,354
  1,456
  1,563
  1,676
  1,794
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  220
  941
  970
  1,049
  1,132
  1,218
  1,308
  1,403
  1,502
  1,607
  1,716
  1,829
  1,949
  2,075
  2,216
  2,363
  2,519
  2,681
  2,851
  3,030
  3,217
  3,414
  3,621
  3,838
  4,066
  4,305
  4,556
  4,819
  5,096
  5,387
  5,691
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  66
  1,153
  1,169
  1,234
  1,302
  1,373
  1,447
  1,525
  1,606
  1,691
  1,780
  1,873
  1,970
  2,073
  2,180
  2,292
  2,409
  2,533
  2,662
  2,798
  2,940
  3,089
  3,246
  3,410
  3,582
  3,763
  3,953
  4,152
  4,361
  4,581
  4,811
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -200
  -228
  -222
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -321
  -338
  -356
  -374
  -396
  -450
  -507
  -567
  -629
  -695
  -764
  -836
  -912
  -992
  -1,076
  -1,164
  -1,257
  -1,354
  -1,456
  -1,563
  -1,676
  -1,794
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  925
  947
  1,000
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
  1,235
  1,301
  1,370
  1,442
  1,517
  1,596
  1,676
  1,729
  1,785
  1,843
  1,904
  1,967
  2,034
  2,104
  2,177
  2,253
  2,334
  2,418
  2,506
  2,599
  2,696
  2,798
  2,905
  3,017
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  887
  867
  870
  868
  862
  851
  835
  813
  787
  756
  720
  681
  637
  581
  524
  468
  414
  362
  313
  267
  225
  187
  153
  123
  98
  76
  58
  43
  32
  23
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  98.9
  97.7
  95.8
  93.5
  90.7
  87.5
  84.0
  80.2
  76.3
  72.2
  68.1
  63.9
  59.7
  55.5
  51.4
  47.3
  43.4
  39.7
  36.1
  32.8
  29.7
  26.7
  24.0
  21.5
  19.2
  17.1
  15.2
  13.5
  12.0

American National Insurance Company is engaged in life insurance, annuities, and property and casualty insurance. The Company also offers limited health insurance. Its family of companies includes six life insurance companies, eight property and casualty insurance companies, and various non-insurance subsidiaries. Its business segments include Life, which offers products, such as Whole Life, Term Life, Universal Life, Variable Universal Life and Credit Life Insurance; Annuity, including products, such as Deferred Annuity, Single Premium Immediate Annuity and Variable Annuity; Health, including, such as Medicare Supplement, Supplemental Insurance, Stop-Loss, Credit Disability and Medical Expense; Property and Casualty, which offers products, such as Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Credit-Related Property Insurance products, and Corporate and Other, which consists of its invested assets that are not used to support insurance activities, and non-insurance subsidiaries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  American National Insurance (ANAT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.1
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 2.9%
Total Debt to Equity 2.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 48.6%

ANAT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANAT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3220 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by American National Insurance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of American National Insurance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANAT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANAT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of American National Insurance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of American National Insurance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANAT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANAT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for American National Insurance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for American National Insurance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANAT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANAT are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in American National Insurance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANAT is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4652 million for American National Insurance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.29 million for American National Insurance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of American National Insurance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-02-17 02:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Insurance posts 3Q profit   [Oct-30-17 06:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Houston-area insurance company names new CFO   [Aug-24-17 04:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-03-17 03:23PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Insurance posts 2Q profit   [Jul-31-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Apr-28-17 01:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Insurance posts 1Q profit   [Apr-24-17 03:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-02-17 01:04PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ American National Insurance posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-17 06:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying American National Insurance Company (ANAT)   [Dec-09-16 06:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ American National Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-03-16 03:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of ANAT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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