Intrinsic value of Abercrombie&Fitch - ANF

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$11.99

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$11.99

 
Intrinsic value

$10.09

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,327
  3,394
  3,472
  3,561
  3,661
  3,772
  3,894
  4,026
  4,170
  4,325
  4,491
  4,668
  4,858
  5,059
  5,274
  5,501
  5,742
  5,997
  6,267
  6,552
  6,853
  7,171
  7,506
  7,859
  8,231
  8,623
  9,036
  9,470
  9,927
  10,408
  10,913
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,369
  2,423
  2,485
  2,555
  2,633
  2,718
  2,810
  2,911
  3,019
  3,134
  3,258
  3,391
  3,531
  3,681
  3,840
  4,008
  4,186
  4,375
  4,574
  4,784
  5,005
  5,239
  5,486
  5,745
  6,019
  6,307
  6,610
  6,929
  7,265
  7,618
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,040
  1,066
  1,093
  1,120
  1,148
  1,177
  1,207
  1,237
  1,268
  1,299
  1,332
  1,365
  1,399
  1,434
  1,470
  1,507
  1,544
  1,583
  1,623
  1,663
  1,705
  1,747
  1,791
  1,836
  1,882
  1,929
  1,977
  2,026
  2,077
  2,129
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,312
  3,409
  3,489
  3,578
  3,675
  3,781
  3,895
  4,017
  4,148
  4,287
  4,433
  4,590
  4,756
  4,930
  5,115
  5,310
  5,515
  5,730
  5,958
  6,197
  6,447
  6,710
  6,986
  7,277
  7,581
  7,901
  8,236
  8,587
  8,955
  9,342
  9,747
Operating income, $m
  15
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -15
  -9
  -1
  9
  23
  38
  57
  78
  102
  129
  158
  191
  227
  267
  310
  356
  407
  461
  519
  582
  650
  722
  800
  883
  972
  1,066
  1,167
EBITDA, $m
  210
  166
  167
  172
  181
  192
  207
  224
  245
  269
  297
  327
  361
  399
  440
  485
  534
  587
  644
  706
  773
  844
  920
  1,002
  1,090
  1,183
  1,283
  1,389
  1,502
  1,622
  1,750
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -33
  -29
  -22
  -14
  -2
  11
  27
  46
  67
  91
  118
  148
  180
  216
  255
  298
  344
  394
  448
  506
  568
  635
  707
  783
  866
  953
  1,047
Tax expense, $m
  -11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  7
  12
  18
  25
  32
  40
  49
  58
  69
  80
  93
  106
  121
  137
  153
  171
  191
  212
  234
  257
  283
Net income, $m
  4
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -33
  -29
  -22
  -14
  -2
  8
  20
  34
  49
  67
  86
  108
  132
  158
  186
  217
  251
  288
  327
  369
  415
  464
  516
  572
  632
  696
  764

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  547
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,296
  1,784
  1,825
  1,872
  1,925
  1,983
  2,047
  2,117
  2,192
  2,274
  2,361
  2,454
  2,554
  2,660
  2,773
  2,892
  3,019
  3,153
  3,295
  3,445
  3,603
  3,770
  3,946
  4,132
  4,328
  4,534
  4,751
  4,979
  5,219
  5,472
  5,738
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,749
  1,784
  1,825
  1,872
  1,925
  1,983
  2,047
  2,117
  2,192
  2,274
  2,361
  2,454
  2,554
  2,660
  2,773
  2,892
  3,019
  3,153
  3,295
  3,445
  3,603
  3,770
  3,946
  4,132
  4,328
  4,534
  4,751
  4,979
  5,219
  5,472
  5,738
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
  1.902
Average production assets, $m
  887
  906
  927
  951
  977
  1,007
  1,040
  1,075
  1,113
  1,155
  1,199
  1,246
  1,297
  1,351
  1,408
  1,469
  1,533
  1,601
  1,673
  1,749
  1,830
  1,915
  2,004
  2,098
  2,198
  2,302
  2,413
  2,529
  2,651
  2,779
  2,914
Working capital, $m
  653
  109
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  349
Total debt, $m
  309
  330
  355
  383
  415
  450
  488
  530
  576
  625
  677
  733
  793
  857
  925
  997
  1,073
  1,154
  1,240
  1,330
  1,425
  1,526
  1,632
  1,744
  1,861
  1,985
  2,116
  2,253
  2,398
  2,550
  2,710
Total liabilities, $m
  1,052
  1,074
  1,099
  1,127
  1,159
  1,194
  1,232
  1,274
  1,320
  1,369
  1,421
  1,477
  1,537
  1,601
  1,669
  1,741
  1,817
  1,898
  1,984
  2,074
  2,169
  2,270
  2,376
  2,488
  2,605
  2,729
  2,860
  2,997
  3,142
  3,294
  3,454
Total equity, $m
  1,243
  710
  726
  745
  766
  789
  815
  843
  873
  905
  940
  977
  1,016
  1,059
  1,104
  1,151
  1,202
  1,255
  1,311
  1,371
  1,434
  1,501
  1,571
  1,645
  1,722
  1,804
  1,891
  1,982
  2,077
  2,178
  2,284
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,295
  1,784
  1,825
  1,872
  1,925
  1,983
  2,047
  2,117
  2,193
  2,274
  2,361
  2,454
  2,553
  2,660
  2,773
  2,892
  3,019
  3,153
  3,295
  3,445
  3,603
  3,771
  3,947
  4,133
  4,327
  4,533
  4,751
  4,979
  5,219
  5,472
  5,738
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.249
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.720
  0.750
  0.780
  0.810
  0.840
  0.870
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -33
  -29
  -22
  -14
  -2
  8
  20
  34
  49
  67
  86
  108
  132
  158
  186
  217
  251
  288
  327
  369
  415
  464
  516
  572
  632
  696
  764
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  195
  181
  185
  190
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  460
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
Funds from operations, $m
  155
  151
  152
  156
  163
  173
  186
  201
  220
  239
  260
  283
  309
  337
  368
  402
  438
  478
  521
  567
  617
  670
  728
  789
  854
  924
  998
  1,078
  1,162
  1,252
  1,347
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  185
  114
  149
  153
  160
  169
  182
  197
  216
  234
  255
  277
  303
  330
  361
  394
  431
  470
  512
  558
  607
  660
  717
  778
  842
  911
  985
  1,064
  1,147
  1,236
  1,331
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -177
  -181
  -185
  -190
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -240
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -320
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -383
  -401
  -420
  -440
  -460
  -483
  -506
  -530
  -556
New CAPEX, $m
  -141
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -137
  -196
  -202
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -313
  -327
  -343
  -358
  -375
  -392
  -411
  -430
  -451
  -472
  -495
  -519
  -545
  -570
  -599
  -628
  -658
  -691
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  -82
  -53
  -56
  -57
  -56
  -52
  -46
  -38
  -30
  -21
  -10
  3
  17
  34
  52
  73
  95
  120
  147
  177
  210
  245
  282
  323
  367
  415
  465
  520
  578
  640
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
  152
  160
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  44
  47
  47
  44
  39
  32
  22
  13
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -30
  21
  69
  75
  79
  79
  78
  74
  67
  62
  56
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
  152
  160
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  -61
  -28
  -28
  -26
  -21
  -14
  -4
  8
  19
  32
  46
  63
  81
  101
  124
  149
  176
  206
  238
  272
  310
  351
  394
  441
  491
  545
  603
  664
  730
  800
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  547
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  472
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  9
  23
  39
  57
  76
  98
  123
  149
  178
  209
  244
  281
  320
  363
  409
  459
  512
  569
  629
  694
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  452
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  10
  15
  19
  22
  25
  27
  27
  27
  27
  25
  23
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  91.8
  84.1
  77.2
  71.3
  66.6
  63.1
  60.8
  59.5
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3
  59.3

Abercrombie & Fitch Co., through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel. The company sells knit and woven shirts, graphic T-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women, and kids under the Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie kids, and Hollister brand names. As of March 2, 2016, it operated through 754 stores in the United States; and 178 stores in Canada, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The company sells its products through its stores and direct-to-consumer sales. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 203.1
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 24.9%
Total Debt to Equity 24.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 0.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 366.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 147.7%
Payout Ratio 1350%

ANF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3327 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Abercrombie&Fitch. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Abercrombie&Fitch. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Abercrombie&Fitch, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Abercrombie&Fitch.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1015 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Abercrombie&Fitch.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Abercrombie&Fitch. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANF are equal to 26.7%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Abercrombie&Fitch operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANF is equal to 3.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1243 million for Abercrombie&Fitch - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.264 million for Abercrombie&Fitch is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Abercrombie&Fitch at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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Stock chart of ANF Financial statements of ANF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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