Intrinsic value of Abercrombie&Fitch - ANF

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$12.29

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,327
  3,589
  3,672
  3,766
  3,872
  3,990
  4,118
  4,259
  4,411
  4,574
  4,750
  4,937
  5,138
  5,351
  5,578
  5,819
  6,074
  6,343
  6,629
  6,931
  7,249
  7,585
  7,939
  8,313
  8,706
  9,121
  9,557
  10,017
  10,500
  11,008
  11,543
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,950
  3,018
  3,096
  3,183
  3,279
  3,385
  3,501
  3,625
  3,760
  3,904
  4,059
  4,223
  4,399
  4,585
  4,783
  4,992
  5,214
  5,449
  5,697
  5,959
  6,235
  6,526
  6,833
  7,157
  7,497
  7,856
  8,234
  8,631
  9,049
  9,489
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  581
  596
  611
  626
  642
  658
  674
  691
  708
  726
  744
  763
  782
  801
  821
  842
  863
  884
  906
  929
  952
  976
  1,001
  1,026
  1,051
  1,077
  1,104
  1,132
  1,160
  1,189
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,312
  3,531
  3,614
  3,707
  3,809
  3,921
  4,043
  4,175
  4,316
  4,468
  4,630
  4,803
  4,986
  5,181
  5,386
  5,604
  5,834
  6,077
  6,333
  6,603
  6,888
  7,187
  7,502
  7,834
  8,183
  8,548
  8,933
  9,338
  9,763
  10,209
  10,678
Operating income, $m
  15
  58
  58
  60
  63
  69
  76
  84
  94
  106
  120
  135
  152
  171
  192
  215
  239
  266
  296
  327
  361
  398
  437
  479
  524
  572
  624
  679
  737
  799
  865
EBITDA, $m
  210
  253
  258
  265
  274
  286
  300
  316
  334
  355
  378
  404
  431
  462
  495
  531
  570
  611
  656
  704
  756
  810
  869
  931
  998
  1,068
  1,144
  1,223
  1,308
  1,398
  1,493
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  42
  41
  42
  44
  48
  53
  59
  67
  77
  88
  100
  115
  131
  148
  167
  189
  212
  237
  264
  294
  325
  359
  396
  435
  478
  523
  571
  622
  677
  736
Tax expense, $m
  -11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  79
  88
  97
  107
  118
  129
  141
  154
  168
  183
  199
Net income, $m
  4
  31
  30
  31
  32
  35
  38
  43
  49
  56
  64
  73
  84
  95
  108
  122
  138
  155
  173
  193
  214
  237
  262
  289
  318
  349
  382
  417
  454
  494
  537

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  547
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,296
  1,881
  1,924
  1,974
  2,029
  2,091
  2,159
  2,232
  2,312
  2,397
  2,489
  2,588
  2,693
  2,805
  2,923
  3,050
  3,183
  3,325
  3,474
  3,632
  3,799
  3,975
  4,161
  4,357
  4,563
  4,780
  5,009
  5,250
  5,503
  5,770
  6,050
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,749
  1,881
  1,924
  1,974
  2,029
  2,091
  2,159
  2,232
  2,312
  2,397
  2,489
  2,588
  2,693
  2,805
  2,923
  3,050
  3,183
  3,325
  3,474
  3,632
  3,799
  3,975
  4,161
  4,357
  4,563
  4,780
  5,009
  5,250
  5,503
  5,770
  6,050
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.902
  1.908
  1.909
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.907
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
  1.908
Average production assets, $m
  887
  976
  999
  1,024
  1,053
  1,085
  1,120
  1,158
  1,200
  1,244
  1,292
  1,343
  1,397
  1,456
  1,517
  1,583
  1,652
  1,725
  1,803
  1,885
  1,972
  2,063
  2,159
  2,261
  2,368
  2,481
  2,600
  2,725
  2,856
  2,994
  3,140
Working capital, $m
  653
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
Total debt, $m
  263
  356
  383
  414
  448
  486
  528
  574
  623
  676
  733
  794
  859
  928
  1,002
  1,080
  1,162
  1,250
  1,343
  1,440
  1,544
  1,653
  1,768
  1,889
  2,017
  2,151
  2,293
  2,442
  2,598
  2,763
  2,937
Total liabilities, $m
  1,052
  1,164
  1,191
  1,222
  1,256
  1,294
  1,336
  1,382
  1,431
  1,484
  1,541
  1,602
  1,667
  1,736
  1,810
  1,888
  1,970
  2,058
  2,151
  2,248
  2,352
  2,461
  2,576
  2,697
  2,825
  2,959
  3,101
  3,250
  3,406
  3,571
  3,745
Total equity, $m
  1,243
  717
  733
  752
  773
  797
  822
  850
  881
  913
  948
  986
  1,026
  1,069
  1,114
  1,162
  1,213
  1,267
  1,324
  1,384
  1,448
  1,515
  1,585
  1,660
  1,739
  1,821
  1,908
  2,000
  2,097
  2,198
  2,305
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,295
  1,881
  1,924
  1,974
  2,029
  2,091
  2,158
  2,232
  2,312
  2,397
  2,489
  2,588
  2,693
  2,805
  2,924
  3,050
  3,183
  3,325
  3,475
  3,632
  3,800
  3,976
  4,161
  4,357
  4,564
  4,780
  5,009
  5,250
  5,503
  5,769
  6,050
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.212
  0.500
  0.520
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.810
  0.840
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.010
  1.040
  1.070
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.398
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  31
  30
  31
  32
  35
  38
  43
  49
  56
  64
  73
  84
  95
  108
  122
  138
  155
  173
  193
  214
  237
  262
  289
  318
  349
  382
  417
  454
  494
  537
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  195
  195
  200
  205
  211
  217
  224
  232
  240
  249
  258
  269
  279
  291
  303
  317
  330
  345
  361
  377
  394
  413
  432
  452
  474
  496
  520
  545
  571
  599
  628
Funds from operations, $m
  155
  226
  230
  235
  243
  252
  263
  275
  289
  305
  323
  342
  363
  386
  412
  439
  468
  500
  534
  570
  609
  650
  694
  741
  791
  845
  901
  962
  1,025
  1,093
  1,165
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  185
  188
  228
  234
  241
  250
  260
  273
  287
  302
  320
  339
  360
  383
  408
  435
  464
  495
  529
  565
  604
  645
  689
  735
  785
  838
  894
  954
  1,018
  1,085
  1,156
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -192
  -195
  -200
  -205
  -211
  -217
  -224
  -232
  -240
  -249
  -258
  -269
  -279
  -291
  -303
  -317
  -330
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -474
  -496
  -520
  -545
  -571
  -599
New CAPEX, $m
  -141
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -137
  -210
  -217
  -226
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -297
  -309
  -324
  -337
  -353
  -368
  -386
  -403
  -423
  -443
  -464
  -485
  -509
  -534
  -559
  -587
  -615
  -645
  -676
  -709
  -744
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  -21
  11
  8
  7
  7
  8
  10
  14
  18
  23
  29
  37
  45
  55
  66
  78
  92
  106
  122
  140
  159
  180
  202
  226
  252
  280
  309
  341
  375
  412
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  22
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -30
  22
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  1
  38
  39
  42
  45
  50
  56
  63
  71
  80
  90
  102
  115
  129
  144
  161
  179
  199
  220
  243
  268
  295
  323
  354
  386
  421
  458
  498
  540
  585
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  48
  -15
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  576
  21
  20
  21
  22
  24
  28
  33
  38
  45
  53
  62
  72
  83
  96
  110
  125
  142
  160
  180
  201
  224
  248
  275
  303
  334
  367
  402
  439
  479
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  552
  19
  18
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  28
  27
  26
  25
  23
  21
  19
  16
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Abercrombie & Fitch Co., through its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel. The company sells knit and woven shirts, graphic T-shirts, fleece, jeans and woven pants, shorts, sweaters, and outerwear; personal care products; and accessories for men, women, and kids under the Abercrombie & Fitch, abercrombie kids, and Hollister brand names. As of March 2, 2016, it operated through 754 stores in the United States; and 178 stores in Canada, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The company sells its products through its stores and direct-to-consumer sales. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in New Albany, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 208.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 21.2%
Total Debt to Equity 21.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Equity 0.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 0.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 366.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 147.7%
Payout Ratio 1350%

ANF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3519 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Abercrombie&Fitch. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Abercrombie&Fitch. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ANF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Abercrombie&Fitch, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Abercrombie&Fitch.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $567 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Abercrombie&Fitch.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Abercrombie&Fitch. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANF are equal to 27.2%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Abercrombie&Fitch operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANF is equal to 1.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1291 million for Abercrombie&Fitch - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.912 million for Abercrombie&Fitch is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Abercrombie&Fitch at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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Stock chart of ANF Financial statements of ANF Annual reports of ANF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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