Intrinsic value of Anworth Mortgage Asset - ANH

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$6.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ANH.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.72
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  143
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  280
  293
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  404
  424
  444
  466
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  131
  134
  137
  141
  145
  150
  155
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  347
  364
  382
  400
  420
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  120
  131
  134
  137
  141
  145
  150
  155
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  347
  364
  382
  400
  420
Operating income, $m
  22
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
EBITDA, $m
  22
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Interest expense (income), $m
  59
  137
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  183
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
  303
  318
  334
  351
  369
  387
  407
  428
  450
  473
  497
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  -123
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -237
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -429
  -451
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  22
  -123
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -237
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -429
  -451

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,396
  5,571
  5,699
  5,845
  6,010
  6,192
  6,392
  6,610
  6,845
  7,099
  7,372
  7,663
  7,974
  8,305
  8,657
  9,031
  9,426
  9,845
  10,288
  10,756
  11,250
  11,772
  12,322
  12,902
  13,512
  14,156
  14,833
  15,546
  16,296
  17,085
  17,915
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,365
  5,571
  5,699
  5,845
  6,010
  6,192
  6,392
  6,610
  6,845
  7,099
  7,372
  7,663
  7,974
  8,305
  8,657
  9,031
  9,426
  9,845
  10,288
  10,756
  11,250
  11,772
  12,322
  12,902
  13,512
  14,156
  14,833
  15,546
  16,296
  17,085
  17,915
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.027
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
Total debt, $m
  3,948
  4,098
  4,211
  4,339
  4,484
  4,644
  4,819
  5,010
  5,217
  5,440
  5,679
  5,935
  6,208
  6,499
  6,808
  7,136
  7,483
  7,851
  8,240
  8,651
  9,085
  9,543
  10,026
  10,535
  11,071
  11,636
  12,230
  12,856
  13,515
  14,208
  14,937
Total liabilities, $m
  4,741
  4,891
  5,004
  5,132
  5,277
  5,437
  5,612
  5,803
  6,010
  6,233
  6,472
  6,728
  7,001
  7,292
  7,601
  7,929
  8,276
  8,644
  9,033
  9,444
  9,878
  10,336
  10,819
  11,328
  11,864
  12,429
  13,023
  13,649
  14,308
  15,001
  15,730
Total equity, $m
  655
  680
  695
  713
  733
  755
  780
  806
  835
  866
  899
  935
  973
  1,013
  1,056
  1,102
  1,150
  1,201
  1,255
  1,312
  1,373
  1,436
  1,503
  1,574
  1,649
  1,727
  1,810
  1,897
  1,988
  2,084
  2,186
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,396
  5,571
  5,699
  5,845
  6,010
  6,192
  6,392
  6,609
  6,845
  7,099
  7,371
  7,663
  7,974
  8,305
  8,657
  9,031
  9,426
  9,845
  10,288
  10,756
  11,251
  11,772
  12,322
  12,902
  13,513
  14,156
  14,833
  15,546
  16,296
  17,085
  17,916
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.027
  6.030
  6.060
  6.080
  6.120
  6.150
  6.180
  6.210
  6.250
  6.280
  6.310
  6.350
  6.380
  6.410
  6.450
  6.480
  6.510
  6.540
  6.560
  6.590
  6.620
  6.640
  6.670
  6.690
  6.720
  6.740
  6.760
  6.780
  6.800
  6.820
  6.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  22
  -123
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -237
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -429
  -451
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  84
  -123
  -129
  -132
  -136
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -237
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -288
  -302
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -429
  -451
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  81
  -124
  -130
  -134
  -139
  -143
  -149
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -359
  -378
  -397
  -418
  -439
  -462
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  994
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1,075
  -124
  -130
  -134
  -139
  -143
  -149
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -359
  -378
  -397
  -418
  -439
  -462
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,005
  181
  112
  129
  144
  160
  176
  191
  207
  223
  239
  256
  273
  291
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  536
  565
  595
  626
  659
  693
  729
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  34
  24
  14
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,009
  181
  146
  153
  158
  166
  176
  191
  207
  223
  239
  256
  273
  291
  309
  328
  347
  368
  389
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  536
  565
  595
  626
  659
  693
  729
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  65
  57
  -18
  -6
  6
  17
  27
  37
  46
  55
  64
  73
  82
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  163
  173
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -25
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  10
  17
  24
  31
  38
  44
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
Discount rate, %
 
  13.60
  14.28
  14.99
  15.74
  16.53
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.09
  21.10
  22.15
  23.26
  24.42
  25.64
  26.93
  28.27
  29.69
  31.17
  32.73
  34.37
  36.08
  37.89
  39.78
  41.77
  43.86
  46.05
  48.36
  50.78
  53.31
  55.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  4
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  94.9
  91.6
  89.6
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9

Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation operates as a real estate investment trust primarily in the United States. It invests in, finances, and manages leveraged portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities that are guaranteed by Ginnie Mae, or by agencies or instrumentalities of the federal government, including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The company also invests in non-agency mortgage investments that are guaranteed by a private institution, such as a commercial bank; and other mortgage-related investments consisting of mortgage derivative securities, mortgage warehouse participations, and subordinated interests, as well as in mortgage loans, other investments. It qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. The company generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Anworth Mortgage Asset (ANH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.4
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 5.6%
Total Debt to Equity 602.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.5%
EBITDA Margin 56.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69%
Operating Margin 16.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Net Profit Margin 15.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 295.5%

ANH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $142 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Anworth Mortgage Asset. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Anworth Mortgage Asset. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.6%, whose default value for ANH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Anworth Mortgage Asset, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Anworth Mortgage Asset.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Anworth Mortgage Asset.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Anworth Mortgage Asset. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANH are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Anworth Mortgage Asset operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANH is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $655 million for Anworth Mortgage Asset - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 95.889 million for Anworth Mortgage Asset is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Anworth Mortgage Asset at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Anworth Announces Annual Meeting Results   [May-22-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Anworth posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Anworth Announces Preferred Stock Dividends   [Apr-26-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Anworth posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-17 05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Anworth Announces 2016 Dividend Tax Information   [Feb-10-17 11:25AM  Business Wire]
▶ Anworth Announces Preferred Stock Dividends   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Anheuser-Busch Announces Line Up For Super Bowl 51   [Jan-18-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Anworth Announces Preferred Stock Dividends   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Anworth Announces Preferred Stock Dividends   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Anworth Announces Annual Meeting Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of ANH Financial statements of ANH Annual reports of ANH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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