Intrinsic value of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network - ANW

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$11.40

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$11.40

 
Intrinsic value

$3.51

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ANW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -36.48
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  4,232
  4,461
  4,700
  4,950
  5,212
  5,486
  5,773
  6,074
  6,390
  6,720
  7,066
  7,430
  7,810
  8,210
  8,629
  9,068
  9,529
  10,012
  10,520
  11,052
  11,610
  12,197
  12,812
  13,457
  14,135
  14,846
  15,593
  16,377
  17,199
  18,063
  18,969
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,420
  4,657
  4,904
  5,163
  5,435
  5,719
  6,017
  6,329
  6,656
  6,998
  7,351
  7,728
  8,123
  8,537
  8,972
  9,428
  9,907
  10,408
  10,935
  11,488
  12,068
  12,676
  13,315
  13,986
  14,690
  15,428
  16,204
  17,018
  17,872
  18,769
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,155
  4,420
  4,657
  4,904
  5,163
  5,435
  5,719
  6,017
  6,329
  6,656
  6,998
  7,351
  7,728
  8,123
  8,537
  8,972
  9,428
  9,907
  10,408
  10,935
  11,488
  12,068
  12,676
  13,315
  13,986
  14,690
  15,428
  16,204
  17,018
  17,872
  18,769
Operating income, $m
  77
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
EBITDA, $m
  122
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
  301
  316
  331
  348
  366
  384
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
Tax expense, $m
  3
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Net income, $m
  36
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  139
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,450
  1,382
  1,456
  1,533
  1,615
  1,700
  1,788
  1,882
  1,979
  2,082
  2,189
  2,302
  2,420
  2,543
  2,673
  2,809
  2,952
  3,102
  3,259
  3,424
  3,597
  3,778
  3,969
  4,169
  4,379
  4,599
  4,831
  5,073
  5,328
  5,596
  5,876
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,311
  1,382
  1,456
  1,533
  1,615
  1,700
  1,788
  1,882
  1,979
  2,082
  2,189
  2,302
  2,420
  2,543
  2,673
  2,809
  2,952
  3,102
  3,259
  3,424
  3,597
  3,778
  3,969
  4,169
  4,379
  4,599
  4,831
  5,073
  5,328
  5,596
  5,876
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.229
  3.227
  3.227
  3.229
  3.227
  3.229
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.227
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
  3.228
Average production assets, $m
  642
  678
  714
  752
  792
  834
  878
  923
  971
  1,021
  1,074
  1,129
  1,187
  1,248
  1,312
  1,378
  1,448
  1,522
  1,599
  1,680
  1,765
  1,854
  1,947
  2,046
  2,149
  2,257
  2,370
  2,489
  2,614
  2,746
  2,883
Working capital, $m
  342
  504
  531
  559
  589
  620
  652
  686
  722
  759
  799
  840
  883
  928
  975
  1,025
  1,077
  1,131
  1,189
  1,249
  1,312
  1,378
  1,448
  1,521
  1,597
  1,678
  1,762
  1,851
  1,944
  2,041
  2,144
Total debt, $m
  710
  609
  648
  689
  731
  776
  823
  872
  923
  977
  1,033
  1,093
  1,155
  1,220
  1,288
  1,360
  1,435
  1,513
  1,596
  1,683
  1,774
  1,869
  1,970
  2,075
  2,185
  2,301
  2,423
  2,551
  2,685
  2,825
  2,973
Total liabilities, $m
  828
  727
  766
  807
  849
  894
  941
  990
  1,041
  1,095
  1,151
  1,211
  1,273
  1,338
  1,406
  1,478
  1,553
  1,631
  1,714
  1,801
  1,892
  1,987
  2,088
  2,193
  2,303
  2,419
  2,541
  2,669
  2,803
  2,943
  3,091
Total equity, $m
  622
  655
  690
  727
  765
  806
  848
  892
  938
  987
  1,038
  1,091
  1,147
  1,206
  1,267
  1,332
  1,399
  1,470
  1,545
  1,623
  1,705
  1,791
  1,881
  1,976
  2,076
  2,180
  2,290
  2,405
  2,526
  2,652
  2,785
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,450
  1,382
  1,456
  1,534
  1,614
  1,700
  1,789
  1,882
  1,979
  2,082
  2,189
  2,302
  2,420
  2,544
  2,673
  2,810
  2,952
  3,101
  3,259
  3,424
  3,597
  3,778
  3,969
  4,169
  4,379
  4,599
  4,831
  5,074
  5,329
  5,595
  5,876
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.141
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  72
  76
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
Change in working capital, $m
  -47
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  102
Cash from operations, $m
  50
  24
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -36
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -77
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
Free cash flow, $m
  42
  -53
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  48
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -24
  86
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  188
  196
  206
  216
  228
  239
  251
  263
  277
  291
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.4
  84.2
  78.5
  73.2
  68.2
  63.6
  59.3
  55.3
  51.6
  48.2
  44.8
  41.7
  38.8
  36.2
  33.7
  31.3
  29.2
  27.2
  25.3
  23.6
  21.9
  20.4
  19.0
  17.7
  16.5
  15.3
  14.3
  13.3
  12.4
  11.5

Aegean Marine Petroleum Network, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a marine fuel logistics company that markets and supplies refined marine fuel and lubricants to vessels in port, at sea, and on rivers worldwide. The company offers fueling services to ocean-going and a range of coastal vessels, including oil tankers, container ships, drybulk carriers, cruise ships, reefers, LNG/LPG carriers, car carriers, and ferries, as well as to marine fuel traders, brokers, and other end-users of marine fuel and lubricants. It also markets and distributes marine lubricants under the Alfa Marine Lubricants brand name; and provides a range of shipping services, such as technical support and maintenance, insurance arrangement and handling, financial administration, and accounting services. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned and operated a fleet of 51 bunkering vessels, including 49 double-hull vessels and 1 single hull special purpose vehicle; chartered 13 double hull bunkering vessels with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 388,000 deadweight ton (dwt); operated 12 land-based storage facilities with an aggregate storage capacity of approximately 1,160,000 cubic meters; and operated 1 vessel as a floating storage facility with a total cargo carrying capacity of approximately 19,900 dwt. Aegean Marine Petroleum Network, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aegean Marine Petroleum Network (ANW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.6
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -36.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -88.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -32.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 69.8%
Total Debt to Equity 114.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Asset Turnover 2.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 7.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 7.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Payout Ratio 11.1%

ANW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ANW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4232 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ANW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for ANW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ANW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ANW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ANW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ANW are equal to 15.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aegean Marine Petroleum Network operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ANW is equal to 11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $622 million for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.568 million for Aegean Marine Petroleum Network is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aegean Marine Petroleum Network at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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