Intrinsic value of Alliance One International - AOI

Previous Close

$13.45

  Intrinsic Value

$105.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+687%

Previous close

$13.45

 
Intrinsic value

$105.88

 
Up/down potential

+687%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of AOI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.97
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  1,715
  1,820
  1,929
  2,042
  2,161
  2,284
  2,413
  2,548
  2,689
  2,836
  2,990
  3,151
  3,319
  3,496
  3,680
  3,874
  4,076
  4,288
  4,510
  4,743
  4,988
  5,244
  5,512
  5,794
  6,089
  6,399
  6,724
  7,065
  7,423
  7,798
  8,192
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  699
  740
  784
  829
  877
  926
  978
  1,032
  1,088
  1,147
  1,207
  1,272
  1,339
  1,410
  1,484
  1,561
  1,643
  1,728
  1,817
  1,911
  2,009
  2,112
  2,219
  2,333
  2,451
  2,576
  2,706
  2,843
  2,987
  3,138
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,020
  1,045
  1,072
  1,098
  1,126
  1,154
  1,183
  1,212
  1,243
  1,274
  1,306
  1,338
  1,372
  1,406
  1,441
  1,477
  1,514
  1,552
  1,591
  1,630
  1,671
  1,713
  1,756
  1,800
  1,845
  1,891
  1,938
  1,987
  2,036
  2,087
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,630
  1,719
  1,785
  1,856
  1,927
  2,003
  2,080
  2,161
  2,244
  2,331
  2,421
  2,513
  2,610
  2,711
  2,816
  2,925
  3,038
  3,157
  3,280
  3,408
  3,541
  3,680
  3,825
  3,975
  4,133
  4,296
  4,467
  4,644
  4,830
  5,023
  5,225
Operating income, $m
  85
  101
  143
  187
  233
  282
  333
  388
  445
  506
  569
  638
  710
  785
  865
  949
  1,038
  1,131
  1,231
  1,336
  1,447
  1,564
  1,688
  1,819
  1,957
  2,103
  2,257
  2,420
  2,593
  2,775
  2,967
EBITDA, $m
  119
  137
  181
  227
  275
  326
  380
  437
  497
  560
  627
  698
  772
  851
  934
  1,021
  1,114
  1,212
  1,315
  1,425
  1,540
  1,662
  1,791
  1,927
  2,071
  2,223
  2,384
  2,553
  2,732
  2,921
  3,121
Interest expense (income), $m
  107
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  197
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
  275
  291
  307
  324
  342
  360
  380
  400
  422
Earnings before tax, $m
  -40
  28
  64
  102
  142
  184
  228
  275
  325
  377
  432
  493
  555
  620
  690
  763
  841
  923
  1,010
  1,103
  1,200
  1,303
  1,412
  1,528
  1,650
  1,779
  1,916
  2,060
  2,213
  2,374
  2,545
Tax expense, $m
  23
  8
  17
  28
  38
  50
  62
  74
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  167
  186
  206
  227
  249
  273
  298
  324
  352
  381
  413
  446
  480
  517
  556
  598
  641
  687
Net income, $m
  -63
  21
  47
  74
  103
  134
  166
  201
  237
  275
  316
  360
  405
  453
  503
  557
  614
  674
  738
  805
  876
  951
  1,031
  1,115
  1,205
  1,299
  1,399
  1,504
  1,615
  1,733
  1,858

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  473
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,972
  1,591
  1,686
  1,785
  1,889
  1,997
  2,110
  2,227
  2,351
  2,479
  2,614
  2,754
  2,902
  3,056
  3,217
  3,386
  3,563
  3,748
  3,943
  4,146
  4,360
  4,584
  4,818
  5,064
  5,323
  5,593
  5,878
  6,176
  6,488
  6,816
  7,161
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,499
  1,591
  1,686
  1,785
  1,889
  1,997
  2,110
  2,227
  2,351
  2,479
  2,614
  2,754
  2,902
  3,056
  3,217
  3,386
  3,563
  3,748
  3,943
  4,146
  4,360
  4,584
  4,818
  5,064
  5,323
  5,593
  5,878
  6,176
  6,488
  6,816
  7,161
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
  1.144
Average production assets, $m
  316
  335
  355
  376
  398
  420
  444
  469
  495
  522
  550
  580
  611
  643
  677
  713
  750
  789
  830
  873
  918
  965
  1,014
  1,066
  1,120
  1,177
  1,237
  1,300
  1,366
  1,435
  1,507
Working capital, $m
  797
  859
  910
  964
  1,020
  1,078
  1,139
  1,203
  1,269
  1,339
  1,411
  1,487
  1,567
  1,650
  1,737
  1,828
  1,924
  2,024
  2,129
  2,239
  2,354
  2,475
  2,602
  2,735
  2,874
  3,020
  3,174
  3,335
  3,503
  3,681
  3,867
Total debt, $m
  1,429
  1,035
  1,118
  1,203
  1,293
  1,386
  1,484
  1,585
  1,692
  1,803
  1,919
  2,041
  2,168
  2,301
  2,441
  2,587
  2,739
  2,900
  3,067
  3,243
  3,428
  3,621
  3,824
  4,037
  4,260
  4,494
  4,739
  4,997
  5,267
  5,550
  5,848
Total liabilities, $m
  1,768
  1,374
  1,457
  1,542
  1,632
  1,725
  1,823
  1,924
  2,031
  2,142
  2,258
  2,380
  2,507
  2,640
  2,780
  2,926
  3,078
  3,239
  3,406
  3,582
  3,767
  3,960
  4,163
  4,376
  4,599
  4,833
  5,078
  5,336
  5,606
  5,889
  6,187
Total equity, $m
  204
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  287
  303
  320
  337
  355
  375
  395
  416
  438
  460
  485
  510
  536
  564
  593
  623
  655
  689
  724
  761
  799
  840
  882
  927
  974
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,972
  1,590
  1,686
  1,785
  1,889
  1,997
  2,110
  2,227
  2,351
  2,479
  2,613
  2,755
  2,902
  3,056
  3,218
  3,386
  3,563
  3,749
  3,942
  4,146
  4,360
  4,583
  4,818
  5,065
  5,323
  5,594
  5,877
  6,176
  6,488
  6,816
  7,161
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.005
  4.790
  4.870
  4.960
  5.030
  5.100
  5.170
  5.230
  5.290
  5.350
  5.400
  5.450
  5.490
  5.540
  5.580
  5.620
  5.650
  5.690
  5.720
  5.750
  5.780
  5.810
  5.840
  5.860
  5.880
  5.910
  5.930
  5.950
  5.970
  5.990
  6.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136
  0.136

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -63
  21
  47
  74
  103
  134
  166
  201
  237
  275
  316
  360
  405
  453
  503
  557
  614
  674
  738
  805
  876
  951
  1,031
  1,115
  1,205
  1,299
  1,399
  1,504
  1,615
  1,733
  1,858
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  154
Funds from operations, $m
  521
  57
  85
  114
  146
  179
  213
  250
  289
  330
  373
  419
  467
  518
  573
  630
  690
  755
  822
  894
  970
  1,050
  1,135
  1,224
  1,319
  1,419
  1,525
  1,637
  1,755
  1,880
  2,012
Change in working capital, $m
  274
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
Cash from operations, $m
  247
  7
  33
  61
  90
  120
  152
  187
  223
  261
  301
  343
  388
  435
  485
  539
  595
  654
  717
  784
  854
  929
  1,008
  1,091
  1,179
  1,273
  1,371
  1,476
  1,586
  1,703
  1,826
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -218
Free cash flow, $m
  236
  -44
  -21
  4
  30
  57
  86
  116
  149
  183
  219
  257
  298
  340
  386
  434
  485
  539
  596
  656
  720
  788
  860
  936
  1,016
  1,101
  1,191
  1,287
  1,388
  1,494
  1,607
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  258
  270
  284
  298
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  38
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  258
  270
  284
  298
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  273
  35
  61
  89
  119
  150
  183
  218
  255
  294
  335
  379
  425
  474
  525
  580
  638
  699
  764
  832
  905
  982
  1,063
  1,149
  1,239
  1,335
  1,437
  1,544
  1,658
  1,778
  1,904
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  23
  48
  76
  105
  136
  168
  202
  238
  277
  317
  359
  405
  453
  503
  557
  614
  674
  737
  805
  876
  951
  1,031
  1,115
  1,204
  1,299
  1,398
  1,504
  1,615
  1,733
  1,857
Discount rate, %
 
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.60
  17.43
  18.30
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.24
  23.36
  24.52
  25.75
  27.04
  28.39
  29.81
  31.30
  32.87
  34.51
  36.23
  38.05
  39.95
  41.95
  44.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  21
  39
  54
  66
  74
  78
  79
  78
  74
  68
  61
  54
  46
  38
  31
  25
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alliance One International, Inc. is engaged in purchasing, processing, storing and selling leaf tobacco. It purchases tobacco primarily in the United States, Africa, Europe, South America and Asia for sale to customers primarily in the United States, Europe and Asia. Its segments include North America and Other regions. The North America segment includes Wilson, N.C., Farmville, N.C. and Danville, VA in the United States. The Other regions segment includes South America, Africa, Europe and Asia. It operates in Venancio Aires, Brazil; Ararangua, Brazil, and El Carril, Argentina in South America. It operates in Lilongwe, Malawi; Morogoro, Tanzania, and Harare, Zimbabwe in Africa. It operates in Karlsruhe, Germany in Europe. It operates in Ngoro, Indonesia in Asia. It deals primarily in flue-cured, burley and oriental tobaccos that are used in international brand cigarettes. As of March 31, 2016, it processed tobacco in more than 35 owned and third party facilities across the world.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliance One International (AOI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 462.3%
Total Debt to Equity 700.5%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital -3.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity -26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin -3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Effective Tax Rate -57.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -88.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

AOI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AOI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1715 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliance One International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Alliance One International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AOI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.7%, whose default value for AOI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliance One International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliance One International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AOI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $995 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AOI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.6% for Alliance One International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliance One International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AOI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AOI are equal to 18.4%.

Life of production assets of 9.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliance One International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AOI is equal to 47.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $204 million for Alliance One International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.975 million for Alliance One International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliance One International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ALLIANCE ONE INTERNATIONAL, INC. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-02-17 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Alliance One posts 2Q profit   [05:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alliance One reports 1Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alliance One reports 4Q loss   [Jun-14-17 04:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alliance One reports 3Q loss   [Feb-06-17 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ George Soros' Best-Performing Stocks of 2016 -- so Far   [May-22-16 10:42AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Stocks That Have Doubled in 2016 Alone   [May-12-16 10:07AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of AOI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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