Intrinsic value of Alpha&Omega Semiconductor - AOSL

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$16.27

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$16.27

 
Intrinsic value

$147.70

 
Up/down potential

+808%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AOSL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.44
  18.80
  17.42
  16.18
  15.06
  14.05
  13.15
  12.33
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  336
  399
  469
  545
  627
  715
  809
  908
  1,014
  1,125
  1,241
  1,363
  1,490
  1,622
  1,760
  1,904
  2,053
  2,208
  2,370
  2,537
  2,711
  2,892
  3,081
  3,277
  3,481
  3,693
  3,914
  4,145
  4,385
  4,636
  4,898
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  100
  117
  136
  157
  179
  202
  227
  253
  281
  310
  341
  372
  406
  440
  476
  513
  552
  592
  634
  678
  723
  770
  819
  870
  923
  979
  1,036
  1,096
  1,159
  1,225
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  262
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  304
  312
  320
  328
  336
  344
  353
  362
  371
  380
  390
  399
  409
  419
  430
  441
  452
  463
  475
  486
  499
  511
  524
  537
Total operating expenses, $m
  334
  362
  386
  412
  440
  469
  499
  531
  565
  601
  638
  677
  716
  759
  802
  847
  893
  942
  991
  1,043
  1,097
  1,153
  1,211
  1,271
  1,333
  1,398
  1,465
  1,535
  1,607
  1,683
  1,762
Operating income, $m
  2
  37
  83
  133
  187
  246
  310
  377
  448
  524
  603
  686
  773
  864
  959
  1,057
  1,160
  1,267
  1,378
  1,494
  1,614
  1,739
  1,870
  2,006
  2,147
  2,295
  2,449
  2,610
  2,778
  2,953
  3,137
EBITDA, $m
  29
  65
  115
  171
  231
  296
  366
  440
  519
  602
  690
  781
  877
  977
  1,082
  1,190
  1,304
  1,421
  1,544
  1,671
  1,804
  1,942
  2,085
  2,235
  2,391
  2,554
  2,723
  2,900
  3,085
  3,278
  3,479
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  37
  82
  132
  186
  244
  307
  373
  444
  518
  597
  679
  765
  855
  948
  1,046
  1,147
  1,253
  1,363
  1,478
  1,597
  1,721
  1,850
  1,984
  2,124
  2,270
  2,423
  2,582
  2,748
  2,921
  3,103
Tax expense, $m
  4
  10
  22
  36
  50
  66
  83
  101
  120
  140
  161
  183
  207
  231
  256
  282
  310
  338
  368
  399
  431
  465
  499
  536
  574
  613
  654
  697
  742
  789
  838
Net income, $m
  -3
  27
  60
  96
  136
  178
  224
  272
  324
  378
  436
  496
  558
  624
  692
  764
  838
  915
  995
  1,079
  1,166
  1,256
  1,350
  1,448
  1,551
  1,657
  1,768
  1,885
  2,006
  2,132
  2,265

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  88
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  319
  274
  322
  374
  431
  491
  556
  624
  697
  773
  853
  937
  1,024
  1,115
  1,210
  1,309
  1,411
  1,518
  1,629
  1,744
  1,863
  1,988
  2,117
  2,252
  2,392
  2,538
  2,690
  2,849
  3,014
  3,186
  3,366
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  231
  274
  322
  374
  431
  491
  556
  624
  697
  773
  853
  937
  1,024
  1,115
  1,210
  1,309
  1,411
  1,518
  1,629
  1,744
  1,863
  1,988
  2,117
  2,252
  2,392
  2,538
  2,690
  2,849
  3,014
  3,186
  3,366
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.455
  1.456
  1.457
  1.457
  1.455
  1.456
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
  1.455
Average production assets, $m
  118
  140
  164
  191
  219
  250
  283
  318
  355
  394
  434
  477
  521
  568
  616
  666
  719
  773
  829
  888
  949
  1,012
  1,078
  1,147
  1,218
  1,293
  1,370
  1,451
  1,535
  1,623
  1,714
Working capital, $m
  119
  38
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  96
  107
  118
  129
  142
  154
  167
  181
  195
  210
  225
  241
  258
  275
  293
  311
  331
  351
  372
  394
  417
  440
  465
Total debt, $m
  1
  14
  30
  47
  66
  86
  107
  129
  153
  178
  205
  232
  261
  291
  322
  355
  388
  423
  460
  498
  537
  578
  621
  665
  711
  759
  809
  861
  916
  972
  1,032
Total liabilities, $m
  76
  90
  106
  123
  142
  162
  183
  205
  229
  254
  281
  308
  337
  367
  398
  431
  464
  499
  536
  574
  613
  654
  697
  741
  787
  835
  885
  937
  992
  1,048
  1,108
Total equity, $m
  242
  184
  216
  251
  289
  330
  373
  419
  467
  519
  572
  628
  687
  748
  812
  878
  947
  1,018
  1,093
  1,170
  1,250
  1,334
  1,421
  1,511
  1,605
  1,703
  1,805
  1,911
  2,022
  2,138
  2,259
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  318
  274
  322
  374
  431
  492
  556
  624
  696
  773
  853
  936
  1,024
  1,115
  1,210
  1,309
  1,411
  1,517
  1,629
  1,744
  1,863
  1,988
  2,118
  2,252
  2,392
  2,538
  2,690
  2,848
  3,014
  3,186
  3,367
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.004
  0.080
  0.140
  0.190
  0.230
  0.260
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.667
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  27
  60
  96
  136
  178
  224
  272
  324
  378
  436
  496
  558
  624
  692
  764
  838
  915
  995
  1,079
  1,166
  1,256
  1,350
  1,448
  1,551
  1,657
  1,768
  1,885
  2,006
  2,132
  2,265
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  123
  133
  144
  155
  166
  178
  190
  202
  216
  229
  244
  259
  274
  290
  307
  325
  343
Funds from operations, $m
  50
  55
  93
  134
  179
  228
  280
  336
  395
  457
  522
  591
  663
  738
  816
  897
  981
  1,069
  1,161
  1,256
  1,355
  1,458
  1,566
  1,678
  1,794
  1,916
  2,042
  2,175
  2,313
  2,457
  2,608
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  40
  47
  86
  127
  172
  220
  271
  327
  385
  447
  511
  579
  651
  725
  802
  883
  967
  1,055
  1,146
  1,240
  1,339
  1,441
  1,548
  1,659
  1,775
  1,896
  2,021
  2,153
  2,290
  2,433
  2,583
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -87
  -95
  -104
  -114
  -123
  -133
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -216
  -229
  -244
  -259
  -274
  -290
  -307
  -325
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -46
  -52
  -60
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -110
  -120
  -130
  -139
  -150
  -162
  -173
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -225
  -239
  -253
  -268
  -285
  -300
  -318
  -336
  -355
  -374
  -395
  -417
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  2
  34
  68
  105
  145
  189
  235
  284
  337
  392
  450
  511
  574
  641
  710
  782
  857
  935
  1,016
  1,100
  1,188
  1,280
  1,375
  1,474
  1,578
  1,686
  1,798
  1,916
  2,038
  2,167
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -37
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -18
  16
  50
  85
  123
  165
  210
  258
  308
  362
  418
  477
  539
  604
  672
  742
  815
  892
  971
  1,054
  1,140
  1,229
  1,322
  1,419
  1,520
  1,626
  1,736
  1,850
  1,970
  2,095
  2,226
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  35
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  74
  17
  50
  86
  124
  166
  212
  260
  311
  365
  421
  481
  543
  608
  676
  747
  820
  897
  976
  1,059
  1,146
  1,235
  1,329
  1,426
  1,528
  1,634
  1,744
  1,859
  1,979
  2,105
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  71
  16
  43
  70
  96
  121
  143
  162
  178
  191
  200
  205
  206
  204
  198
  190
  178
  165
  150
  135
  118
  103
  87
  73
  59
  48
  37
  29
  22
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, and supplies a portfolio of power semiconductors for consumer, computing, communications, and industrial markets primarily in the United States, Hong Kong, Macau, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. It offers various power discrete products, including low, medium, and high voltage power metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs); and SRFETs, XSFET, electrostatic discharges, protected MOSFETs, and insulated gate bipolar transistors, which are used for routing current and switching voltages in power control circuits. The company also provides power IC products comprising devices that are used for power management and power delivery; and analog power devices that are used for circuit protection and signal switching. Its power discrete products are used in applications, such as notebooks, ultrabooks, desktop and tablet PC's, servers, flat panel displays, TVs, graphics cards, game boxes, chargers, battery packs, AC adapters, power supplies, e-bikes, motor control, smart phones and other portable devices, white goods and industrial motor drives, UPS systems, wind turbines, solar inverters, and industrial welding; and power ICs have applications in flat panel displays, TVs, notebooks, ultrabooks, servers, DVD/Blu-Ray players, set-top boxes, and networking equipment, as well as desktop PCs, tablets, smartphones, and portable electronic devices. The company markets its products directly, as well as through distributors and original design manufacturers to original equipment manufacturers. Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited was incorporated 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alpha&Omega Semiconductor (AOSL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -123.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 88
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Return On Total Capital -1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Return On Equity -1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
EBITDA Margin 8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 0.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Net Profit Margin -0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 400%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 100%
Payout Ratio 0%

AOSL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AOSL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $336 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alpha&Omega Semiconductor. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alpha&Omega Semiconductor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AOSL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AOSL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alpha&Omega Semiconductor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alpha&Omega Semiconductor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AOSL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $256 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AOSL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Alpha&Omega Semiconductor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alpha&Omega Semiconductor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AOSL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AOSL are equal to 35%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alpha&Omega Semiconductor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AOSL is equal to 9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $242 million for Alpha&Omega Semiconductor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.04 million for Alpha&Omega Semiconductor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alpha&Omega Semiconductor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Alpha and Omega tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Feb-08-17 06:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Small Cap Tech Stocks That Doubled in 2016   [Dec-18-16 12:35PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of AOSL Financial statements of AOSL
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