Intrinsic value of Artisan Partners Asset Management - APAM

Previous Close

$29.35

  Intrinsic Value

$49.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+69%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$29.35

 
Intrinsic value

$49.65

 
Up/down potential

+69%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as APAM.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of APAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.43
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  721
  758
  796
  837
  879
  924
  971
  1,020
  1,071
  1,125
  1,182
  1,241
  1,304
  1,369
  1,438
  1,510
  1,586
  1,666
  1,749
  1,837
  1,929
  2,026
  2,127
  2,234
  2,346
  2,463
  2,587
  2,716
  2,852
  2,995
  3,145
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  325
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  483
  507
  532
  559
  587
  617
  648
  680
  715
  750
  788
  828
  869
  913
  958
  1,006
  1,057
  1,110
  1,165
  1,224
  1,285
  1,349
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  382
Total operating expenses, $m
  487
  512
  533
  555
  578
  602
  627
  653
  681
  710
  740
  771
  804
  838
  874
  912
  950
  992
  1,034
  1,079
  1,126
  1,175
  1,226
  1,279
  1,335
  1,394
  1,456
  1,519
  1,587
  1,657
  1,731
Operating income, $m
  234
  246
  263
  282
  301
  322
  343
  366
  390
  415
  442
  470
  500
  531
  564
  599
  635
  674
  715
  758
  803
  851
  901
  954
  1,010
  1,069
  1,131
  1,196
  1,265
  1,338
  1,414
EBITDA, $m
  239
  248
  266
  284
  303
  324
  346
  368
  393
  418
  445
  473
  503
  535
  568
  603
  640
  679
  720
  763
  808
  856
  907
  960
  1,016
  1,075
  1,138
  1,203
  1,273
  1,345
  1,422
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  11
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
Earnings before tax, $m
  224
  235
  252
  268
  285
  303
  322
  342
  363
  386
  409
  434
  460
  488
  517
  548
  580
  615
  651
  689
  729
  771
  816
  863
  913
  965
  1,020
  1,078
  1,139
  1,204
  1,272
Tax expense, $m
  51
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  261
  275
  291
  308
  325
  343
Net income, $m
  73
  172
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  250
  265
  282
  299
  317
  336
  356
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  503
  532
  563
  596
  630
  666
  704
  745
  787
  832
  879
  928

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  936
  897
  942
  990
  1,041
  1,093
  1,149
  1,207
  1,267
  1,331
  1,399
  1,469
  1,543
  1,620
  1,702
  1,787
  1,877
  1,971
  2,070
  2,174
  2,283
  2,397
  2,518
  2,644
  2,776
  2,915
  3,061
  3,214
  3,375
  3,544
  3,721
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  779
  897
  942
  990
  1,041
  1,093
  1,149
  1,207
  1,267
  1,331
  1,399
  1,469
  1,543
  1,620
  1,702
  1,787
  1,877
  1,971
  2,070
  2,174
  2,283
  2,397
  2,518
  2,644
  2,776
  2,915
  3,061
  3,214
  3,375
  3,544
  3,721
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.926
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.844
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
  0.845
Average production assets, $m
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
Working capital, $m
  0
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -235
  -246
  -259
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -314
Total debt, $m
  199
  202
  243
  286
  331
  379
  429
  481
  536
  593
  654
  717
  784
  853
  927
  1,004
  1,084
  1,169
  1,258
  1,352
  1,450
  1,553
  1,661
  1,774
  1,893
  2,019
  2,150
  2,288
  2,433
  2,585
  2,744
Total liabilities, $m
  804
  807
  848
  891
  936
  984
  1,034
  1,086
  1,141
  1,198
  1,259
  1,322
  1,389
  1,458
  1,532
  1,609
  1,689
  1,774
  1,863
  1,957
  2,055
  2,158
  2,266
  2,379
  2,498
  2,624
  2,755
  2,893
  3,038
  3,190
  3,349
Total equity, $m
  132
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
  264
  278
  292
  306
  321
  338
  354
  372
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  936
  897
  942
  990
  1,040
  1,093
  1,149
  1,207
  1,268
  1,331
  1,399
  1,469
  1,543
  1,620
  1,702
  1,788
  1,877
  1,971
  2,070
  2,174
  2,283
  2,398
  2,518
  2,643
  2,776
  2,916
  3,061
  3,214
  3,376
  3,544
  3,721
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.508
  2.250
  2.580
  2.890
  3.190
  3.470
  3.730
  3.990
  4.230
  4.460
  4.670
  4.880
  5.080
  5.270
  5.450
  5.620
  5.780
  5.930
  6.080
  6.220
  6.350
  6.480
  6.600
  6.710
  6.820
  6.920
  7.020
  7.120
  7.210
  7.290
  7.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.032
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  172
  184
  196
  208
  221
  235
  250
  265
  282
  299
  317
  336
  356
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  503
  532
  563
  596
  630
  666
  704
  745
  787
  832
  879
  928
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  257
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  238
  252
  268
  284
  302
  320
  339
  360
  381
  404
  428
  453
  480
  508
  537
  568
  601
  636
  672
  711
  751
  794
  839
  887
  937
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  270
  177
  190
  202
  215
  228
  242
  257
  273
  290
  307
  326
  346
  366
  388
  411
  435
  461
  488
  516
  546
  578
  611
  646
  684
  723
  764
  807
  853
  901
  951
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Free cash flow, $m
  268
  175
  187
  199
  212
  225
  239
  254
  269
  286
  303
  321
  341
  361
  383
  405
  429
  455
  481
  510
  539
  570
  603
  638
  675
  713
  754
  797
  842
  890
  940
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -28
  3
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -163
  3
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  106
  178
  228
  242
  257
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  385
  407
  431
  456
  482
  510
  539
  570
  603
  637
  673
  712
  752
  794
  839
  885
  935
  987
  1,042
  1,099
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -40
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  220
  224
  237
  252
  267
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
  400
  423
  448
  474
  501
  530
  561
  593
  626
  662
  700
  739
  781
  825
  871
  920
  971
  1,025
  1,082
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  211
  205
  207
  207
  207
  205
  203
  199
  193
  187
  179
  171
  161
  150
  139
  127
  115
  103
  91
  80
  68
  58
  48
  40
  32
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is publicly owned investment manager. It provides its services to pension and profit sharing plans, trusts, endowments, foundations, charitable organizations, government entities, private funds and non-U.S. funds, as well as mutual funds, non-U.S. funds and collective trusts. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe. It invests in growth and value stocks of companies across all market capitalization. For fixed income component of its portfolio the firm invests in non-investment grade corporate bonds and secured and unsecured loans. It employs fundamental analysis to create its portfolios. Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. was founded in 1994 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; New York City; San Francisco, California; Leawood, Kansas; and London, United Kingdom.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.9
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 16.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 150.8%
Total Debt to Equity 150.8%
Interest Coverage 21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 22.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Return On Equity 55.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 33.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
Operating Margin 32.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 31.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 22.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Payout Ratio 157.5%

APAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $721 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Artisan Partners Asset Management. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Artisan Partners Asset Management. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for APAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Artisan Partners Asset Management, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Artisan Partners Asset Management.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $182 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Artisan Partners Asset Management.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Artisan Partners Asset Management. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APAM are equal to 2.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Artisan Partners Asset Management operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APAM is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $132 million for Artisan Partners Asset Management - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.205 million for Artisan Partners Asset Management is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Artisan Partners Asset Management at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Artisan Partners misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-31-17 09:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fed Hikes Rate, Sets Asset Plan: 5 Top Gainers   [Jun-15-17 08:29AM  Zacks]
▶ DOL Fiduciary Rule Arrives June 9Will It Survive?   [May-23-17 12:54PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Artisan Partners beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 06:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Southeast Wisconsin stocks that could extend bull-market runs   [Apr-07-17 03:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Active Managers Feel the Urge to Merge   [Feb-24-17 04:20PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Active Managers Feel the Urge to Merge   [04:20PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On INC Research Holdings Inc (INCR)   [Nov-26-16 06:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of APAM Financial statements of APAM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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