Intrinsic value of Artisan Partners Asset Management - APAM

Previous Close

$34.45

  Intrinsic Value

$83.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+142%

Previous close

$34.45

 
Intrinsic value

$83.49

 
Up/down potential

+142%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as APAM.

We calculate the intrinsic value of APAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.43
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
Revenue, $m
  721
  803
  890
  980
  1,075
  1,174
  1,277
  1,384
  1,496
  1,612
  1,732
  1,858
  1,988
  2,123
  2,264
  2,410
  2,562
  2,721
  2,886
  3,058
  3,237
  3,424
  3,620
  3,823
  4,036
  4,259
  4,491
  4,734
  4,989
  5,255
  5,533
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  345
  382
  421
  461
  504
  548
  594
  642
  691
  743
  797
  853
  911
  971
  1,034
  1,099
  1,167
  1,238
  1,312
  1,389
  1,469
  1,553
  1,640
  1,732
  1,827
  1,927
  2,031
  2,140
  2,254
  2,374
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  382
Total operating expenses, $m
  487
  532
  573
  617
  662
  710
  759
  810
  864
  918
  976
  1,036
  1,098
  1,162
  1,228
  1,298
  1,369
  1,444
  1,522
  1,603
  1,687
  1,775
  1,866
  1,961
  2,061
  2,164
  2,273
  2,385
  2,503
  2,626
  2,756
Operating income, $m
  234
  272
  317
  364
  413
  464
  518
  574
  632
  693
  756
  822
  890
  961
  1,035
  1,113
  1,193
  1,277
  1,364
  1,455
  1,550
  1,650
  1,753
  1,862
  1,975
  2,094
  2,219
  2,349
  2,485
  2,628
  2,778
EBITDA, $m
  239
  276
  321
  369
  418
  470
  525
  581
  640
  701
  765
  832
  901
  972
  1,047
  1,125
  1,206
  1,291
  1,379
  1,471
  1,567
  1,667
  1,772
  1,882
  1,996
  2,116
  2,242
  2,373
  2,511
  2,655
  2,807
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  11
  10
  14
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  140
  150
  160
  171
  182
  194
  207
  220
  233
  248
Earnings before tax, $m
  224
  261
  307
  349
  394
  440
  489
  539
  592
  646
  703
  763
  824
  888
  955
  1,025
  1,097
  1,173
  1,252
  1,334
  1,420
  1,510
  1,604
  1,702
  1,804
  1,912
  2,024
  2,142
  2,265
  2,395
  2,530
Tax expense, $m
  51
  71
  83
  94
  106
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  190
  206
  223
  240
  258
  277
  296
  317
  338
  360
  383
  408
  433
  459
  487
  516
  547
  578
  612
  647
  683
Net income, $m
  73
  191
  224
  255
  287
  321
  357
  393
  432
  472
  513
  557
  602
  649
  697
  748
  801
  856
  914
  974
  1,037
  1,102
  1,171
  1,242
  1,317
  1,396
  1,478
  1,564
  1,654
  1,748
  1,847

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  936
  867
  961
  1,059
  1,161
  1,268
  1,379
  1,495
  1,615
  1,741
  1,871
  2,006
  2,147
  2,293
  2,445
  2,603
  2,767
  2,938
  3,117
  3,302
  3,496
  3,698
  3,909
  4,129
  4,359
  4,599
  4,850
  5,113
  5,387
  5,675
  5,975
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  779
  867
  961
  1,059
  1,161
  1,268
  1,379
  1,495
  1,615
  1,741
  1,871
  2,006
  2,147
  2,293
  2,445
  2,603
  2,767
  2,938
  3,117
  3,302
  3,496
  3,698
  3,909
  4,129
  4,359
  4,599
  4,850
  5,113
  5,387
  5,675
  5,975
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.925
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
Average production assets, $m
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
Working capital, $m
  0
  -175
  -194
  -214
  -234
  -256
  -278
  -302
  -326
  -351
  -378
  -405
  -433
  -463
  -494
  -525
  -559
  -593
  -629
  -667
  -706
  -747
  -789
  -833
  -880
  -928
  -979
  -1,032
  -1,088
  -1,146
  -1,206
Total debt, $m
  199
  176
  260
  348
  440
  536
  636
  740
  849
  961
  1,079
  1,200
  1,327
  1,458
  1,595
  1,737
  1,885
  2,039
  2,200
  2,367
  2,541
  2,723
  2,913
  3,111
  3,318
  3,534
  3,760
  3,996
  4,244
  4,502
  4,773
Total liabilities, $m
  804
  781
  865
  953
  1,045
  1,141
  1,241
  1,345
  1,454
  1,566
  1,684
  1,805
  1,932
  2,063
  2,200
  2,342
  2,490
  2,644
  2,805
  2,972
  3,146
  3,328
  3,518
  3,716
  3,923
  4,139
  4,365
  4,601
  4,849
  5,107
  5,378
Total equity, $m
  132
  87
  96
  106
  116
  127
  138
  149
  162
  174
  187
  201
  215
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  312
  330
  350
  370
  391
  413
  436
  460
  485
  511
  539
  567
  598
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  936
  868
  961
  1,059
  1,161
  1,268
  1,379
  1,494
  1,616
  1,740
  1,871
  2,006
  2,147
  2,292
  2,444
  2,602
  2,767
  2,938
  3,117
  3,302
  3,496
  3,698
  3,909
  4,129
  4,359
  4,599
  4,850
  5,112
  5,388
  5,674
  5,976
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.508
  2.020
  2.700
  3.280
  3.790
  4.230
  4.610
  4.950
  5.250
  5.520
  5.770
  5.980
  6.180
  6.360
  6.530
  6.680
  6.810
  6.940
  7.060
  7.170
  7.270
  7.360
  7.450
  7.530
  7.610
  7.680
  7.750
  7.820
  7.880
  7.930
  7.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.032
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  73
  191
  224
  255
  287
  321
  357
  393
  432
  472
  513
  557
  602
  649
  697
  748
  801
  856
  914
  974
  1,037
  1,102
  1,171
  1,242
  1,317
  1,396
  1,478
  1,564
  1,654
  1,748
  1,847
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
Funds from operations, $m
  257
  195
  229
  260
  293
  327
  363
  401
  440
  480
  522
  566
  612
  660
  709
  761
  814
  870
  929
  990
  1,053
  1,120
  1,189
  1,262
  1,338
  1,418
  1,501
  1,588
  1,680
  1,775
  1,876
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
Cash from operations, $m
  270
  213
  248
  280
  314
  349
  386
  424
  464
  505
  549
  594
  640
  689
  740
  793
  848
  905
  965
  1,027
  1,093
  1,161
  1,232
  1,307
  1,385
  1,466
  1,552
  1,641
  1,735
  1,833
  1,937
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -33
  -34
Free cash flow, $m
  268
  207
  241
  273
  306
  341
  377
  415
  454
  495
  537
  581
  627
  675
  725
  777
  831
  888
  946
  1,008
  1,072
  1,139
  1,209
  1,282
  1,359
  1,439
  1,524
  1,612
  1,704
  1,801
  1,902
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -28
  -23
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -163
  -23
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  106
  184
  325
  361
  398
  437
  477
  519
  562
  607
  654
  703
  754
  807
  862
  919
  979
  1,042
  1,107
  1,175
  1,246
  1,321
  1,399
  1,481
  1,566
  1,656
  1,749
  1,848
  1,951
  2,059
  2,173
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -112
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  229
  316
  351
  388
  426
  466
  507
  550
  595
  641
  690
  740
  792
  847
  903
  963
  1,024
  1,089
  1,156
  1,227
  1,301
  1,378
  1,459
  1,543
  1,632
  1,724
  1,822
  1,924
  2,030
  2,143
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  220
  289
  306
  319
  330
  338
  343
  344
  342
  336
  327
  316
  301
  284
  265
  245
  223
  201
  178
  156
  135
  114
  96
  79
  63
  50
  39
  30
  22
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is an investment management company. The Company provides a range of the United States, non-United States and global investment strategies, each of which is managed by one of its investment teams. The Company provides investment management services to separate accounts, mutual funds and other pooled investment vehicles. The Company offers its investment management services primarily to institutions and through intermediaries that operate with institutional-like decision-making processes and have long-term investment horizons. The Company provides clients with multiple equity investment strategies spanning market capitalization segments and investing styles in both the United States and non-United States markets. The Company also offers one fixed income strategy, the Artisan High Income strategy. Each strategy is managed by one of the investment teams.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.1
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 19.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 150.8%
Total Debt to Equity 150.8%
Interest Coverage 21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Total Capital 22.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Return On Equity 55.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 33.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Operating Margin 32.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 31.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 22.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Payout Ratio 157.5%

APAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $721 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Artisan Partners Asset Management. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Artisan Partners Asset Management. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for APAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Artisan Partners Asset Management, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Artisan Partners Asset Management.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $182 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Artisan Partners Asset Management.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Artisan Partners Asset Management. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APAM are equal to 2.6%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Artisan Partners Asset Management operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APAM is equal to -21.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $132 million for Artisan Partners Asset Management - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 75.949 million for Artisan Partners Asset Management is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Artisan Partners Asset Management at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Artisan Partners reports 4Q loss   [Feb-06-18 05:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for January 24th   [Jan-24-18 09:15AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for January 12th   [Jan-12-18 07:31AM  Zacks]
▶ Fed Hikes Rates: Top 5 Winners for 2018   [Dec-14-17 07:47AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for November 22nd   [Nov-22-17 07:51AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for November 20th   [Nov-20-17 09:27AM  Zacks]
▶ Artisan Partners beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Oct-31-17 05:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Strength: Artisan Partners Asset Management   [Sep-26-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Artisan Partners misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-31-17 09:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fed Hikes Rate, Sets Asset Plan: 5 Top Gainers   [Jun-15-17 08:29AM  Zacks]
▶ DOL Fiduciary Rule Arrives June 9Will It Survive?   [May-23-17 12:54PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Artisan Partners beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 06:58PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of APAM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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