Intrinsic value of AppFolio - APPF

Previous Close

$40.05

  Intrinsic Value

$36.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-10%

  Value-price divergence*

+364%

Previous close

$40.05

 
Intrinsic value

$36.17

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+364%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of APPF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.33
  39.10
  35.69
  32.62
  29.86
  27.37
  25.14
  23.12
  21.31
  19.68
  18.21
  16.89
  15.70
  14.63
  13.67
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
Revenue, $m
  106
  147
  200
  265
  345
  439
  549
  676
  820
  982
  1,160
  1,356
  1,569
  1,799
  2,045
  2,307
  2,584
  2,877
  3,184
  3,506
  3,843
  4,194
  4,561
  4,942
  5,338
  5,750
  6,179
  6,624
  7,086
  7,567
  8,067
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  114
  154
  204
  265
  337
  422
  520
  630
  754
  891
  1,041
  1,204
  1,381
  1,569
  1,770
  1,983
  2,207
  2,443
  2,691
  2,949
  3,219
  3,500
  3,792
  4,096
  4,413
  4,741
  5,083
  5,438
  5,807
  6,190
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
Total operating expenses, $m
  114
  148
  189
  240
  301
  374
  460
  559
  670
  795
  933
  1,084
  1,248
  1,426
  1,616
  1,818
  2,032
  2,257
  2,494
  2,744
  3,003
  3,274
  3,557
  3,850
  4,156
  4,474
  4,804
  5,147
  5,504
  5,875
  6,259
Operating income, $m
  -8
  0
  11
  25
  43
  64
  89
  117
  150
  186
  227
  272
  321
  373
  429
  489
  552
  619
  689
  763
  840
  920
  1,004
  1,091
  1,182
  1,276
  1,374
  1,476
  1,582
  1,693
  1,807
EBITDA, $m
  2
  4
  16
  32
  51
  74
  102
  133
  169
  209
  253
  302
  356
  413
  474
  540
  609
  683
  760
  841
  925
  1,013
  1,105
  1,201
  1,300
  1,404
  1,512
  1,623
  1,740
  1,861
  1,986
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
Earnings before tax, $m
  -8
  0
  11
  25
  42
  62
  86
  114
  146
  181
  220
  264
  311
  362
  416
  474
  535
  600
  668
  739
  814
  892
  973
  1,057
  1,145
  1,237
  1,332
  1,430
  1,533
  1,640
  1,751
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  3
  7
  11
  17
  23
  31
  39
  49
  59
  71
  84
  98
  112
  128
  145
  162
  180
  200
  220
  241
  263
  286
  309
  334
  360
  386
  414
  443
  473
Net income, $m
  -8
  0
  8
  18
  31
  45
  63
  83
  106
  132
  161
  193
  227
  264
  304
  346
  391
  438
  488
  540
  594
  651
  710
  772
  836
  903
  972
  1,044
  1,119
  1,197
  1,278

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  93
  93
  126
  168
  218
  277
  347
  427
  519
  621
  734
  857
  992
  1,137
  1,293
  1,458
  1,633
  1,818
  2,013
  2,216
  2,429
  2,651
  2,883
  3,124
  3,374
  3,635
  3,906
  4,187
  4,479
  4,783
  5,099
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  67
  93
  126
  168
  218
  277
  347
  427
  519
  621
  734
  857
  992
  1,137
  1,293
  1,458
  1,633
  1,818
  2,013
  2,216
  2,429
  2,651
  2,883
  3,124
  3,374
  3,635
  3,906
  4,187
  4,479
  4,783
  5,099
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.582
  1.581
  1.587
  1.577
  1.583
  1.585
  1.582
  1.583
  1.580
  1.581
  1.580
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.583
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
  1.582
Average production assets, $m
  24
  33
  44
  59
  76
  97
  122
  150
  182
  218
  258
  301
  348
  399
  454
  512
  574
  639
  707
  778
  853
  931
  1,012
  1,097
  1,185
  1,277
  1,372
  1,470
  1,573
  1,680
  1,791
Working capital, $m
  11
  -15
  -20
  -27
  -34
  -44
  -55
  -68
  -82
  -98
  -116
  -136
  -157
  -180
  -204
  -231
  -258
  -288
  -318
  -351
  -384
  -419
  -456
  -494
  -534
  -575
  -618
  -662
  -709
  -757
  -807
Total debt, $m
  0
  9
  20
  35
  52
  72
  96
  124
  155
  190
  229
  271
  317
  367
  420
  477
  537
  601
  667
  737
  810
  886
  966
  1,048
  1,134
  1,224
  1,317
  1,413
  1,513
  1,618
  1,726
Total liabilities, $m
  23
  32
  43
  58
  75
  95
  119
  147
  178
  213
  252
  294
  340
  390
  443
  500
  560
  624
  690
  760
  833
  909
  989
  1,071
  1,157
  1,247
  1,340
  1,436
  1,536
  1,641
  1,749
Total equity, $m
  70
  61
  83
  110
  143
  182
  228
  281
  341
  408
  482
  563
  652
  747
  849
  958
  1,073
  1,195
  1,322
  1,456
  1,596
  1,742
  1,894
  2,052
  2,217
  2,388
  2,566
  2,751
  2,943
  3,143
  3,350
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  93
  93
  126
  168
  218
  277
  347
  428
  519
  621
  734
  857
  992
  1,137
  1,292
  1,458
  1,633
  1,819
  2,012
  2,216
  2,429
  2,651
  2,883
  3,123
  3,374
  3,635
  3,906
  4,187
  4,479
  4,784
  5,099
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.150
  0.250
  0.310
  0.360
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657
  0.657

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  0
  8
  18
  31
  45
  63
  83
  106
  132
  161
  193
  227
  264
  304
  346
  391
  438
  488
  540
  594
  651
  710
  772
  836
  903
  972
  1,044
  1,119
  1,197
  1,278
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  4
  13
  25
  39
  56
  76
  99
  125
  155
  187
  223
  262
  304
  349
  397
  448
  502
  558
  618
  680
  744
  812
  882
  955
  1,030
  1,109
  1,191
  1,276
  1,365
  1,457
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from operations, $m
  12
  8
  18
  31
  47
  65
  87
  112
  140
  171
  205
  243
  283
  327
  374
  423
  476
  531
  589
  650
  713
  779
  848
  920
  994
  1,072
  1,152
  1,236
  1,323
  1,413
  1,507
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -168
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -11
  -15
  -18
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -103
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -279
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -4
  3
  12
  23
  37
  53
  71
  93
  117
  144
  173
  206
  241
  279
  320
  363
  409
  457
  508
  561
  616
  674
  734
  797
  862
  929
  1,000
  1,073
  1,149
  1,228
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  17
  14
  9
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  26
  25
  23
  19
  20
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  23
  29
  35
  43
  57
  77
  99
  124
  152
  182
  216
  252
  291
  333
  377
  423
  472
  524
  577
  634
  692
  753
  817
  882
  951
  1,022
  1,096
  1,173
  1,253
  1,336
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  31
  7
  8
  10
  18
  31
  46
  64
  85
  108
  134
  164
  196
  230
  268
  308
  351
  396
  444
  494
  546
  601
  658
  718
  780
  844
  911
  981
  1,053
  1,129
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  30
  6
  7
  8
  14
  22
  31
  40
  49
  57
  64
  70
  74
  77
  79
  78
  76
  73
  68
  63
  56
  50
  43
  37
  30
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.2
  94.0
  93.0
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8
  92.8

AppFolio, Inc. provides industry-specific cloud-based software solutions for small and medium-sized businesses in property management and legal industries. It offers AppFolio Property Manager, a solution for the operational requirements of small and medium-sized property managers, including posting and tracking tenant vacancies, handling the leasing process electronically, administering maintenance and repairs with their vendor networks, and managing accounting and reporting to property owners, as well as for communicating with tenants and owners. The company also provides MyCase, a practice and case management solution that provides time tracking, billing, calendaring, client communication, and coordination with other lawyers and support staff, and legal document management and assembly for practitioners and small law firms. In addition, it offers Value+ services, such as its Website design and electronic payment services for property manager and law firm customers, as well as resident screening, background and credit checks, tenant liability insurance, maintenance contact center services, lead generation services, and debt collection services for property manager customers. As of December 31, 2016, it served 10,038 property manager customers; and 8,135 law firm customers. AppFolio, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered Goleta, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AppFolio (APPF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -168.8
Price to Sales 12.7
Price to Book 19.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 112.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -450.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.1%
Return On Total Capital -11.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Return On Equity -11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.8%
EBITDA Margin 1.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Operating Margin -7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Net Profit Margin -7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

APPF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the APPF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $106 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AppFolio. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AppFolio. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our APPF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 39.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for APPF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AppFolio, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AppFolio.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of APPF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $33 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for APPF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AppFolio.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AppFolio. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the APPF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for APPF are equal to 22.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AppFolio operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for APPF is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $70 million for AppFolio - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.428 million for AppFolio is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AppFolio at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Tech Stocks That Just Hit All-Time Highs   [Aug-16-17 04:32PM  Zacks]
▶ AppFolio beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-08-17 12:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 04:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : July 12, 2017   [Jul-12-17 02:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 02:52PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: AppFolio Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-08-17 07:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ AppFolio posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 03:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AppFolio Wins 2017 Company of the Year   [Mar-27-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ AppFolio reports 4Q loss   [06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AppFolio, Inc. : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 12:15PM  Capital Cube]
Stock chart of APPF Financial statements of APPF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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