Intrinsic value of Antero Resources - AR

Previous Close

$19.92

  Intrinsic Value

$4.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$19.92

 
Intrinsic value

$4.96

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -58.36
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,647
  1,680
  1,719
  1,763
  1,812
  1,867
  1,928
  1,993
  2,064
  2,141
  2,223
  2,311
  2,405
  2,505
  2,611
  2,723
  2,843
  2,969
  3,103
  3,244
  3,393
  3,550
  3,716
  3,891
  4,075
  4,269
  4,473
  4,688
  4,914
  5,152
  5,403
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  921
  942
  966
  993
  1,023
  1,056
  1,092
  1,131
  1,173
  1,218
  1,266
  1,318
  1,372
  1,431
  1,492
  1,558
  1,627
  1,700
  1,778
  1,859
  1,945
  2,036
  2,132
  2,233
  2,339
  2,451
  2,569
  2,693
  2,823
  2,961
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,640
  921
  942
  966
  993
  1,023
  1,056
  1,092
  1,131
  1,173
  1,218
  1,266
  1,318
  1,372
  1,431
  1,492
  1,558
  1,627
  1,700
  1,778
  1,859
  1,945
  2,036
  2,132
  2,233
  2,339
  2,451
  2,569
  2,693
  2,823
  2,961
Operating income, $m
  -993
  759
  777
  797
  819
  844
  871
  901
  933
  968
  1,005
  1,045
  1,087
  1,132
  1,180
  1,231
  1,285
  1,342
  1,402
  1,466
  1,534
  1,605
  1,680
  1,759
  1,842
  1,930
  2,022
  2,119
  2,221
  2,329
  2,442
EBITDA, $m
  -181
  1,589
  1,625
  1,667
  1,714
  1,766
  1,823
  1,885
  1,952
  2,024
  2,102
  2,185
  2,274
  2,368
  2,469
  2,575
  2,688
  2,807
  2,934
  3,067
  3,208
  3,357
  3,514
  3,679
  3,853
  4,036
  4,230
  4,433
  4,647
  4,872
  5,109
Interest expense (income), $m
  239
  240
  250
  259
  270
  282
  296
  311
  327
  345
  364
  384
  406
  430
  454
  481
  509
  538
  570
  603
  638
  675
  714
  755
  799
  844
  893
  943
  997
  1,053
  1,112
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1,246
  519
  527
  538
  549
  562
  575
  590
  606
  623
  641
  660
  681
  702
  726
  750
  776
  804
  833
  863
  896
  930
  965
  1,003
  1,043
  1,085
  1,129
  1,176
  1,224
  1,276
  1,330
Tax expense, $m
  -497
  140
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  159
  164
  168
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  293
  305
  317
  331
  344
  359
Net income, $m
  -849
  379
  385
  392
  401
  410
  420
  431
  442
  455
  468
  482
  497
  513
  530
  548
  567
  587
  608
  630
  654
  679
  705
  732
  761
  792
  824
  858
  894
  931
  971

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,256
  14,482
  14,815
  15,196
  15,624
  16,097
  16,617
  17,183
  17,795
  18,455
  19,164
  19,921
  20,730
  21,591
  22,506
  23,476
  24,505
  25,594
  26,746
  27,963
  29,248
  30,603
  32,033
  33,540
  35,128
  36,800
  38,561
  40,414
  42,365
  44,416
  46,574
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14,151
  14,482
  14,815
  15,196
  15,624
  16,097
  16,617
  17,183
  17,795
  18,455
  19,164
  19,921
  20,730
  21,591
  22,506
  23,476
  24,505
  25,594
  26,746
  27,963
  29,248
  30,603
  32,033
  33,540
  35,128
  36,800
  38,561
  40,414
  42,365
  44,416
  46,574
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
  0.116
Average production assets, $m
  11,380
  11,608
  11,875
  12,181
  12,523
  12,903
  13,319
  13,773
  14,264
  14,793
  15,361
  15,968
  16,616
  17,306
  18,040
  18,818
  19,642
  20,515
  21,439
  22,414
  23,444
  24,530
  25,676
  26,884
  28,157
  29,498
  30,909
  32,395
  33,958
  35,602
  37,332
Working capital, $m
  -414
  -529
  -541
  -555
  -571
  -588
  -607
  -628
  -650
  -674
  -700
  -728
  -757
  -789
  -822
  -858
  -895
  -935
  -977
  -1,022
  -1,069
  -1,118
  -1,170
  -1,226
  -1,284
  -1,345
  -1,409
  -1,477
  -1,548
  -1,623
  -1,702
Total debt, $m
  4,704
  4,893
  5,082
  5,297
  5,538
  5,806
  6,100
  6,419
  6,765
  7,138
  7,538
  7,967
  8,423
  8,910
  9,427
  9,975
  10,556
  11,172
  11,822
  12,510
  13,236
  14,002
  14,810
  15,661
  16,558
  17,503
  18,498
  19,545
  20,647
  21,806
  23,025
Total liabilities, $m
  7,993
  8,182
  8,371
  8,586
  8,827
  9,095
  9,389
  9,708
  10,054
  10,427
  10,827
  11,256
  11,712
  12,199
  12,716
  13,264
  13,845
  14,461
  15,111
  15,799
  16,525
  17,291
  18,099
  18,950
  19,847
  20,792
  21,787
  22,834
  23,936
  25,095
  26,314
Total equity, $m
  6,263
  6,300
  6,445
  6,610
  6,796
  7,002
  7,228
  7,475
  7,741
  8,028
  8,336
  8,666
  9,018
  9,392
  9,790
  10,212
  10,660
  11,134
  11,635
  12,164
  12,723
  13,312
  13,934
  14,590
  15,281
  16,008
  16,774
  17,580
  18,429
  19,321
  20,260
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,256
  14,482
  14,816
  15,196
  15,623
  16,097
  16,617
  17,183
  17,795
  18,455
  19,163
  19,922
  20,730
  21,591
  22,506
  23,476
  24,505
  25,595
  26,746
  27,963
  29,248
  30,603
  32,033
  33,540
  35,128
  36,800
  38,561
  40,414
  42,365
  44,416
  46,574
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.751
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435
  0.435

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -849
  379
  385
  392
  401
  410
  420
  431
  442
  455
  468
  482
  497
  513
  530
  548
  567
  587
  608
  630
  654
  679
  705
  732
  761
  792
  824
  858
  894
  931
  971
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  812
  829
  848
  870
  895
  922
  951
  984
  1,019
  1,057
  1,097
  1,141
  1,187
  1,236
  1,289
  1,344
  1,403
  1,465
  1,531
  1,601
  1,675
  1,752
  1,834
  1,920
  2,011
  2,107
  2,208
  2,314
  2,426
  2,543
  2,667
Funds from operations, $m
  1,196
  1,208
  1,233
  1,262
  1,295
  1,332
  1,371
  1,414
  1,461
  1,511
  1,565
  1,622
  1,684
  1,749
  1,818
  1,892
  1,970
  2,052
  2,139
  2,231
  2,328
  2,431
  2,539
  2,653
  2,773
  2,899
  3,032
  3,172
  3,319
  3,474
  3,637
Change in working capital, $m
  -45
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
Cash from operations, $m
  1,241
  1,219
  1,245
  1,276
  1,311
  1,349
  1,390
  1,435
  1,483
  1,535
  1,591
  1,650
  1,713
  1,780
  1,852
  1,927
  2,007
  2,092
  2,181
  2,276
  2,375
  2,480
  2,591
  2,708
  2,831
  2,960
  3,096
  3,240
  3,391
  3,549
  3,716
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -813
  -829
  -848
  -870
  -895
  -922
  -951
  -984
  -1,019
  -1,057
  -1,097
  -1,141
  -1,187
  -1,236
  -1,289
  -1,344
  -1,403
  -1,465
  -1,531
  -1,601
  -1,675
  -1,752
  -1,834
  -1,920
  -2,011
  -2,107
  -2,208
  -2,314
  -2,426
  -2,543
New CAPEX, $m
  -2,495
  -228
  -267
  -305
  -343
  -380
  -417
  -454
  -491
  -529
  -568
  -607
  -648
  -690
  -733
  -778
  -825
  -873
  -923
  -975
  -1,030
  -1,087
  -1,146
  -1,208
  -1,273
  -1,340
  -1,411
  -1,486
  -1,563
  -1,645
  -1,730
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2,395
  -1,041
  -1,096
  -1,153
  -1,213
  -1,275
  -1,339
  -1,405
  -1,475
  -1,548
  -1,625
  -1,704
  -1,789
  -1,877
  -1,969
  -2,067
  -2,169
  -2,276
  -2,388
  -2,506
  -2,631
  -2,762
  -2,898
  -3,042
  -3,193
  -3,351
  -3,518
  -3,694
  -3,877
  -4,071
  -4,273
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,154
  177
  149
  123
  98
  75
  52
  30
  9
  -13
  -34
  -54
  -75
  -96
  -118
  -140
  -162
  -184
  -207
  -231
  -256
  -281
  -307
  -334
  -362
  -392
  -422
  -454
  -486
  -521
  -557
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  48
  189
  188
  215
  242
  268
  294
  320
  346
  373
  400
  428
  457
  486
  517
  549
  581
  615
  651
  688
  726
  766
  808
  851
  897
  945
  995
  1,047
  1,102
  1,159
  1,219
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,256
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,162
  189
  188
  215
  242
  268
  294
  320
  346
  373
  400
  428
  457
  486
  517
  549
  581
  615
  651
  688
  726
  766
  808
  851
  897
  945
  995
  1,047
  1,102
  1,159
  1,219
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  367
  337
  338
  340
  342
  346
  350
  355
  360
  367
  374
  381
  390
  399
  409
  420
  431
  443
  456
  470
  485
  501
  517
  535
  553
  573
  594
  615
  638
  663
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -329
  -142
  -145
  -166
  -186
  -206
  -226
  -246
  -266
  -287
  -308
  -330
  -352
  -374
  -398
  -422
  -448
  -474
  -501
  -529
  -559
  -590
  -622
  -656
  -691
  -727
  -766
  -806
  -848
  -892
  -939
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  330
  192
  172
  154
  136
  120
  104
  88
  73
  59
  44
  30
  15
  1
  -13
  -28
  -43
  -58
  -73
  -89
  -105
  -121
  -138
  -156
  -174
  -193
  -213
  -233
  -254
  -276
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  309
  168
  139
  114
  92
  73
  56
  42
  31
  21
  14
  8
  3
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Antero Resources Corporation is an oil and natural gas company. The Company is engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and oil properties located in the Appalachian Basin. The Company's segments include the exploration, development and production of natural gas, NGLs and oil; gathering and processing; water handling and treatment, and marketing of excess firm transportation capacity. The Company's subsidiary, Antero Midstream Partners LP (Antero Midstream) is a master limited partnership, which owns, operates and develops midstream energy infrastructure primarily to service its production and completion activity. Its exploration and development activities are supported by the natural gas gathering and compression assets of its subsidiary, Antero Midstream, as well as by third party gathering and compression arrangements. It also has access to additional low-pressure and high-pressure pipelines.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Antero Resources (AR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.4
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -58.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 75.1%
Total Debt to Equity 75.1%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Return On Total Capital -7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity -13.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 92.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 95.2%
EBITDA Margin -11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Operating Margin -60.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -75.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Net Profit Margin -51.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Effective Tax Rate 39.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

AR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1647 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Antero Resources. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Antero Resources. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for AR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Antero Resources, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Antero Resources.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Antero Resources.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Antero Resources. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AR are equal to 691%.

Life of production assets of 14 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Antero Resources operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AR is equal to -31.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6263 million for Antero Resources - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 315.519 million for Antero Resources is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Antero Resources at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.3 billion.

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Financial statements of AR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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