Intrinsic value of Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A - ARCO

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$7.85

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARCO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.06
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  2,929
  3,142
  3,239
  3,346
  3,462
  3,588
  3,722
  3,867
  4,022
  4,186
  4,362
  4,548
  4,745
  4,954
  5,175
  5,409
  5,656
  5,917
  6,192
  6,483
  6,788
  7,110
  7,450
  7,807
  8,182
  8,578
  8,994
  9,431
  9,891
  10,375
  10,883
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,082
  3,178
  3,283
  3,396
  3,519
  3,652
  3,794
  3,945
  4,107
  4,279
  4,461
  4,655
  4,860
  5,077
  5,307
  5,549
  5,805
  6,075
  6,359
  6,659
  6,975
  7,308
  7,658
  8,027
  8,415
  8,823
  9,252
  9,703
  10,178
  10,677
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,750
  3,082
  3,178
  3,283
  3,396
  3,519
  3,652
  3,794
  3,945
  4,107
  4,279
  4,461
  4,655
  4,860
  5,077
  5,307
  5,549
  5,805
  6,075
  6,359
  6,659
  6,975
  7,308
  7,658
  8,027
  8,415
  8,823
  9,252
  9,703
  10,178
  10,677
Operating income, $m
  179
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
EBITDA, $m
  272
  173
  178
  184
  190
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  272
  285
  298
  311
  325
  341
  357
  373
  391
  410
  429
  450
  472
  495
  519
  544
  571
  599
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
Earnings before tax, $m
  139
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
Tax expense, $m
  60
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  79
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  195
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,505
  1,327
  1,368
  1,414
  1,463
  1,516
  1,573
  1,634
  1,699
  1,769
  1,843
  1,921
  2,005
  2,093
  2,187
  2,285
  2,390
  2,500
  2,616
  2,739
  2,868
  3,004
  3,147
  3,298
  3,457
  3,624
  3,800
  3,984
  4,179
  4,383
  4,598
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,310
  1,327
  1,368
  1,414
  1,463
  1,516
  1,573
  1,634
  1,699
  1,769
  1,843
  1,921
  2,005
  2,093
  2,187
  2,285
  2,390
  2,500
  2,616
  2,739
  2,868
  3,004
  3,147
  3,298
  3,457
  3,624
  3,800
  3,984
  4,179
  4,383
  4,598
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.236
  2.368
  2.368
  2.366
  2.366
  2.367
  2.366
  2.367
  2.367
  2.366
  2.367
  2.368
  2.367
  2.367
  2.366
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
  2.367
Average production assets, $m
  878
  622
  641
  663
  686
  710
  737
  766
  796
  829
  864
  900
  940
  981
  1,025
  1,071
  1,120
  1,172
  1,226
  1,284
  1,344
  1,408
  1,475
  1,546
  1,620
  1,698
  1,781
  1,867
  1,958
  2,054
  2,155
Working capital, $m
  -103
  -151
  -155
  -161
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -358
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
Total debt, $m
  580
  571
  603
  638
  676
  717
  762
  809
  860
  914
  972
  1,033
  1,098
  1,166
  1,239
  1,316
  1,397
  1,483
  1,573
  1,669
  1,769
  1,875
  1,987
  2,104
  2,227
  2,357
  2,494
  2,638
  2,789
  2,948
  3,115
Total liabilities, $m
  1,154
  1,033
  1,065
  1,100
  1,138
  1,179
  1,224
  1,271
  1,322
  1,376
  1,434
  1,495
  1,560
  1,628
  1,701
  1,778
  1,859
  1,945
  2,035
  2,131
  2,231
  2,337
  2,449
  2,566
  2,689
  2,819
  2,956
  3,100
  3,251
  3,410
  3,577
Total equity, $m
  351
  295
  304
  314
  325
  336
  349
  363
  377
  393
  409
  427
  445
  465
  485
  507
  531
  555
  581
  608
  637
  667
  699
  732
  767
  805
  844
  885
  928
  973
  1,021
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,505
  1,328
  1,369
  1,414
  1,463
  1,515
  1,573
  1,634
  1,699
  1,769
  1,843
  1,922
  2,005
  2,093
  2,186
  2,285
  2,390
  2,500
  2,616
  2,739
  2,868
  3,004
  3,148
  3,298
  3,456
  3,624
  3,800
  3,985
  4,179
  4,383
  4,598
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.652
  1.940
  1.980
  2.030
  2.080
  2.130
  2.180
  2.230
  2.280
  2.330
  2.380
  2.420
  2.470
  2.510
  2.550
  2.590
  2.630
  2.670
  2.710
  2.740
  2.780
  2.810
  2.840
  2.870
  2.900
  2.930
  2.960
  2.980
  3.010
  3.030
  3.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.119
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222
  0.222

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  79
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  93
  113
  117
  120
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
Funds from operations, $m
  232
  122
  125
  128
  132
  135
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  164
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  235
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  325
  339
Change in working capital, $m
  68
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from operations, $m
  164
  -429
  130
  133
  137
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  186
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -120
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -374
New CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
Cash from investing activities, $m
  23
  -128
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -373
  -391
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -475
Free cash flow, $m
  187
  -557
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -111
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -264
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  537
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -113
  566
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  82
  -528
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -65
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  23
  23
  22
  22
  22
  21
  20
  20
  19
  18
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1
  76.1

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald’s restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald’s restaurants in 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curaçao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela. As of December 31, 2015, the company operated and franchised 2,141 McDonald’s branded restaurants. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A (ARCO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 23
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 157.3%
Total Debt to Equity 165.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Return On Equity 24.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 43.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARCO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARCO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3053 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARCO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for ARCO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARCO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARCO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.8% for Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARCO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARCO are equal to 19.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARCO is equal to -4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $286 million for Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 217.742 million for Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arcos Dorados Holdings Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Brazil Shockwaves Send These 5 Stocks Plunging   [May-18-17 05:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Arcos Dorados Holding Inc. Stock Popped Today   [May-03-17 04:58PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Arcos Dorados posts 1Q profit   [08:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Top Stocks Under $10   [Mar-16-17 07:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [04:58PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Arcos Dorados Announces Key Appointments   [Jan-04-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ 6 Analyst Stock Picks Under $10 for Massive Upside   [Oct-30-16 11:06AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Arcos Dorados to exclusively source cage-free eggs   [Oct-13-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ If You Love McDonald's, You Should Check Out Arcos Dorados   [Sep-29-16 12:51PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Arcos Dorados Holdings, Inc. Stock Fell 11% in August   [Sep-14-16 06:15PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of ARCO Financial statements of ARCO Annual reports of ARCO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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