Intrinsic value of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - ARI

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$19.29

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$19.29

 
Intrinsic value

$26.12

 
Up/down potential

+35%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ARI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.50
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  264
  330
  406
  492
  588
  695
  812
  939
  1,075
  1,222
  1,377
  1,542
  1,716
  1,899
  2,090
  2,291
  2,499
  2,717
  2,943
  3,179
  3,424
  3,678
  3,943
  4,217
  4,503
  4,800
  5,109
  5,430
  5,765
  6,114
  6,477
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  129
  158
  192
  229
  271
  317
  366
  419
  476
  537
  601
  669
  741
  815
  893
  975
  1,060
  1,148
  1,240
  1,335
  1,435
  1,538
  1,645
  1,756
  1,872
  1,993
  2,118
  2,248
  2,384
  2,526
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  72
  129
  158
  192
  229
  271
  317
  366
  419
  476
  537
  601
  669
  741
  815
  893
  975
  1,060
  1,148
  1,240
  1,335
  1,435
  1,538
  1,645
  1,756
  1,872
  1,993
  2,118
  2,248
  2,384
  2,526
Operating income, $m
  192
  201
  248
  300
  359
  424
  495
  573
  656
  745
  840
  941
  1,047
  1,158
  1,275
  1,397
  1,525
  1,657
  1,796
  1,939
  2,089
  2,244
  2,405
  2,573
  2,747
  2,928
  3,116
  3,313
  3,517
  3,729
  3,951
EBITDA, $m
  192
  201
  248
  300
  359
  424
  495
  573
  656
  745
  840
  941
  1,047
  1,158
  1,275
  1,397
  1,525
  1,657
  1,796
  1,939
  2,089
  2,244
  2,405
  2,573
  2,747
  2,928
  3,116
  3,313
  3,517
  3,729
  3,951
Interest expense (income), $m
  53
  57
  74
  92
  113
  136
  162
  190
  221
  254
  290
  328
  368
  410
  454
  500
  549
  600
  652
  707
  764
  824
  885
  949
  1,016
  1,085
  1,157
  1,232
  1,310
  1,391
  1,476
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  144
  174
  208
  246
  288
  333
  382
  435
  491
  550
  613
  679
  749
  821
  897
  976
  1,058
  1,143
  1,232
  1,324
  1,420
  1,520
  1,623
  1,731
  1,843
  1,959
  2,080
  2,207
  2,338
  2,475
Tax expense, $m
  0
  39
  47
  56
  66
  78
  90
  103
  117
  133
  149
  166
  183
  202
  222
  242
  263
  286
  309
  333
  358
  383
  410
  438
  467
  498
  529
  562
  596
  631
  668
Net income, $m
  158
  105
  127
  152
  180
  210
  243
  279
  317
  358
  402
  448
  496
  546
  599
  655
  712
  772
  835
  899
  967
  1,037
  1,109
  1,185
  1,264
  1,345
  1,430
  1,519
  1,611
  1,707
  1,807

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,483
  4,125
  5,074
  6,149
  7,353
  8,686
  10,146
  11,732
  13,441
  15,270
  17,217
  19,278
  21,452
  23,736
  26,130
  28,632
  31,242
  33,962
  36,793
  39,737
  42,798
  45,978
  49,283
  52,718
  56,288
  60,001
  63,862
  67,881
  72,064
  76,422
  80,963
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,282
  4,125
  5,074
  6,149
  7,353
  8,686
  10,146
  11,732
  13,441
  15,270
  17,217
  19,278
  21,452
  23,736
  26,130
  28,632
  31,242
  33,962
  36,793
  39,737
  42,798
  45,978
  49,283
  52,718
  56,288
  60,001
  63,862
  67,881
  72,064
  76,422
  80,963
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -251
  -309
  -374
  -448
  -529
  -618
  -714
  -818
  -930
  -1,048
  -1,174
  -1,306
  -1,445
  -1,591
  -1,743
  -1,902
  -2,068
  -2,240
  -2,419
  -2,606
  -2,799
  -3,000
  -3,209
  -3,427
  -3,653
  -3,888
  -4,133
  -4,387
  -4,653
  -4,929
Total debt, $m
  1,397
  1,797
  2,246
  2,755
  3,324
  3,954
  4,645
  5,395
  6,203
  7,069
  7,989
  8,964
  9,993
  11,073
  12,205
  13,389
  14,624
  15,910
  17,249
  18,642
  20,089
  21,594
  23,157
  24,782
  26,470
  28,226
  30,053
  31,954
  33,932
  35,993
  38,141
Total liabilities, $m
  1,551
  1,951
  2,400
  2,909
  3,478
  4,108
  4,799
  5,549
  6,357
  7,223
  8,143
  9,118
  10,147
  11,227
  12,359
  13,543
  14,778
  16,064
  17,403
  18,796
  20,243
  21,748
  23,311
  24,936
  26,624
  28,380
  30,207
  32,108
  34,086
  36,147
  38,295
Total equity, $m
  1,932
  2,174
  2,674
  3,241
  3,875
  4,578
  5,347
  6,183
  7,083
  8,047
  9,073
  10,160
  11,305
  12,509
  13,770
  15,089
  16,465
  17,898
  19,390
  20,942
  22,554
  24,231
  25,972
  27,782
  29,664
  31,620
  33,655
  35,773
  37,978
  40,274
  42,667
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,483
  4,125
  5,074
  6,150
  7,353
  8,686
  10,146
  11,732
  13,440
  15,270
  17,216
  19,278
  21,452
  23,736
  26,129
  28,632
  31,243
  33,962
  36,793
  39,738
  42,797
  45,979
  49,283
  52,718
  56,288
  60,000
  63,862
  67,881
  72,064
  76,421
  80,962
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.723
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  158
  105
  127
  152
  180
  210
  243
  279
  317
  358
  402
  448
  496
  546
  599
  655
  712
  772
  835
  899
  967
  1,037
  1,109
  1,185
  1,264
  1,345
  1,430
  1,519
  1,611
  1,707
  1,807
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  105
  127
  152
  180
  210
  243
  279
  317
  358
  402
  448
  496
  546
  599
  655
  712
  772
  835
  899
  967
  1,037
  1,109
  1,185
  1,264
  1,345
  1,430
  1,519
  1,611
  1,707
  1,807
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -50
  -58
  -65
  -73
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  155
  185
  217
  253
  291
  332
  375
  421
  470
  520
  573
  628
  686
  745
  807
  871
  938
  1,007
  1,079
  1,153
  1,230
  1,311
  1,394
  1,481
  1,571
  1,665
  1,763
  1,866
  1,972
  2,083
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1,039
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1,158
  155
  185
  217
  253
  291
  332
  375
  421
  470
  520
  573
  628
  686
  745
  807
  871
  938
  1,007
  1,079
  1,153
  1,230
  1,311
  1,394
  1,481
  1,571
  1,665
  1,763
  1,866
  1,972
  2,083
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,038
  400
  449
  509
  570
  630
  691
  750
  808
  865
  921
  975
  1,028
  1,080
  1,132
  1,183
  1,235
  1,287
  1,339
  1,393
  1,448
  1,504
  1,563
  1,625
  1,689
  1,756
  1,827
  1,901
  1,979
  2,061
  2,148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  178
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -865
  400
  449
  509
  570
  630
  691
  750
  808
  865
  921
  975
  1,028
  1,080
  1,132
  1,183
  1,235
  1,287
  1,339
  1,393
  1,448
  1,504
  1,563
  1,625
  1,689
  1,756
  1,827
  1,901
  1,979
  2,061
  2,148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  294
  555
  633
  726
  822
  921
  1,023
  1,125
  1,230
  1,335
  1,441
  1,548
  1,656
  1,766
  1,877
  1,990
  2,106
  2,224
  2,346
  2,471
  2,601
  2,735
  2,874
  3,019
  3,170
  3,327
  3,492
  3,664
  3,844
  4,033
  4,231
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -557
  -443
  -500
  -567
  -635
  -702
  -769
  -836
  -901
  -964
  -1,026
  -1,086
  -1,146
  -1,204
  -1,261
  -1,319
  -1,376
  -1,433
  -1,492
  -1,552
  -1,613
  -1,676
  -1,742
  -1,810
  -1,882
  -1,956
  -2,035
  -2,118
  -2,205
  -2,296
  -2,393
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  314
  133
  159
  188
  219
  253
  290
  329
  371
  415
  462
  511
  562
  616
  672
  730
  791
  854
  920
  988
  1,059
  1,132
  1,209
  1,288
  1,371
  1,457
  1,546
  1,640
  1,737
  1,838
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  292
  115
  125
  135
  142
  146
  148
  147
  144
  138
  130
  120
  109
  97
  84
  72
  60
  49
  39
  31
  23
  17
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that primarily originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. The company is qualified as a real estate investment trust (REIT) under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.2
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 72.3%
Total Debt to Equity 72.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.5%
EBITDA Margin 79.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.4%
Operating Margin 72.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 59.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
Net Profit Margin 59.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 101.3%

ARI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $264 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for ARI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARI is equal to -76.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1932 million for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 91.972 million for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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Stock chart of ARI Financial statements of ARI
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