Intrinsic value of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - ARI

Previous Close

$18.07

  Intrinsic Value

$21.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+21%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$18.07

 
Intrinsic value

$21.94

 
Up/down potential

+21%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ARI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  37.50
  21.30
  19.67
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.80
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.12
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  264
  320
  383
  453
  529
  613
  702
  798
  900
  1,008
  1,122
  1,242
  1,368
  1,499
  1,637
  1,779
  1,928
  2,083
  2,243
  2,410
  2,584
  2,765
  2,952
  3,147
  3,350
  3,561
  3,781
  4,009
  4,248
  4,497
  4,756
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  125
  149
  177
  206
  239
  274
  311
  351
  393
  438
  485
  534
  585
  638
  694
  752
  812
  875
  940
  1,008
  1,078
  1,151
  1,227
  1,306
  1,389
  1,474
  1,564
  1,657
  1,754
  1,855
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  72
  125
  149
  177
  206
  239
  274
  311
  351
  393
  438
  485
  534
  585
  638
  694
  752
  812
  875
  940
  1,008
  1,078
  1,151
  1,227
  1,306
  1,389
  1,474
  1,564
  1,657
  1,754
  1,855
Operating income, $m
  192
  195
  234
  276
  323
  374
  428
  487
  549
  615
  685
  758
  835
  915
  998
  1,085
  1,176
  1,270
  1,368
  1,470
  1,576
  1,686
  1,801
  1,920
  2,043
  2,172
  2,306
  2,446
  2,591
  2,743
  2,901
EBITDA, $m
  192
  195
  234
  276
  323
  374
  428
  487
  549
  615
  685
  758
  835
  915
  998
  1,085
  1,176
  1,270
  1,368
  1,470
  1,576
  1,686
  1,801
  1,920
  2,043
  2,172
  2,306
  2,446
  2,591
  2,743
  2,901
Interest expense (income), $m
  53
  57
  71
  87
  103
  122
  142
  164
  187
  212
  238
  266
  295
  325
  357
  390
  425
  461
  499
  538
  578
  620
  664
  709
  757
  806
  857
  910
  966
  1,023
  1,084
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  138
  162
  190
  219
  252
  286
  323
  362
  403
  447
  492
  540
  589
  641
  695
  751
  809
  870
  933
  998
  1,066
  1,137
  1,210
  1,287
  1,366
  1,449
  1,536
  1,626
  1,719
  1,817
Tax expense, $m
  0
  37
  44
  51
  59
  68
  77
  87
  98
  109
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  235
  252
  270
  288
  307
  327
  347
  369
  391
  415
  439
  464
  491
Net income, $m
  158
  101
  119
  139
  160
  184
  209
  236
  264
  294
  326
  359
  394
  430
  468
  507
  548
  591
  635
  681
  729
  778
  830
  884
  939
  997
  1,058
  1,121
  1,187
  1,255
  1,327

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,483
  4,003
  4,790
  5,662
  6,618
  7,657
  8,777
  9,976
  11,252
  12,604
  14,031
  15,530
  17,100
  18,743
  20,456
  22,242
  24,101
  26,034
  28,043
  30,131
  32,301
  34,556
  36,900
  39,338
  41,873
  44,511
  47,258
  50,118
  53,099
  56,207
  59,449
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,282
  4,003
  4,790
  5,662
  6,618
  7,657
  8,777
  9,976
  11,252
  12,604
  14,031
  15,530
  17,100
  18,743
  20,456
  22,242
  24,101
  26,034
  28,043
  30,131
  32,301
  34,556
  36,900
  39,338
  41,873
  44,511
  47,258
  50,118
  53,099
  56,207
  59,449
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -124
  -137
  -150
  -164
  -178
  -193
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -258
  -276
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -378
  -401
  -425
  -450
  -476
Total debt, $m
  1,397
  1,739
  2,112
  2,524
  2,976
  3,468
  3,997
  4,565
  5,168
  5,808
  6,483
  7,192
  7,935
  8,711
  9,522
  10,366
  11,246
  12,160
  13,110
  14,098
  15,124
  16,191
  17,300
  18,453
  19,652
  20,900
  22,199
  23,552
  24,962
  26,432
  27,965
Total liabilities, $m
  1,551
  1,893
  2,266
  2,678
  3,130
  3,622
  4,151
  4,719
  5,322
  5,962
  6,637
  7,346
  8,089
  8,865
  9,676
  10,520
  11,400
  12,314
  13,264
  14,252
  15,278
  16,345
  17,454
  18,607
  19,806
  21,054
  22,353
  23,706
  25,116
  26,586
  28,119
Total equity, $m
  1,932
  2,110
  2,524
  2,984
  3,488
  4,035
  4,625
  5,257
  5,930
  6,643
  7,394
  8,184
  9,012
  9,877
  10,781
  11,722
  12,701
  13,720
  14,779
  15,879
  17,023
  18,211
  19,447
  20,731
  22,067
  23,457
  24,905
  26,412
  27,983
  29,621
  31,330
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,483
  4,003
  4,790
  5,662
  6,618
  7,657
  8,776
  9,976
  11,252
  12,605
  14,031
  15,530
  17,101
  18,742
  20,457
  22,242
  24,101
  26,034
  28,043
  30,131
  32,301
  34,556
  36,901
  39,338
  41,873
  44,511
  47,258
  50,118
  53,099
  56,207
  59,449
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.723
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527
  0.527

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  158
  101
  119
  139
  160
  184
  209
  236
  264
  294
  326
  359
  394
  430
  468
  507
  548
  591
  635
  681
  729
  778
  830
  884
  939
  997
  1,058
  1,121
  1,187
  1,255
  1,327
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  101
  119
  139
  160
  184
  209
  236
  264
  294
  326
  359
  394
  430
  468
  507
  548
  591
  635
  681
  729
  778
  830
  884
  939
  997
  1,058
  1,121
  1,187
  1,255
  1,327
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  106
  125
  145
  168
  192
  218
  245
  274
  305
  337
  371
  407
  443
  482
  522
  563
  606
  651
  698
  746
  796
  849
  903
  960
  1,019
  1,080
  1,144
  1,211
  1,280
  1,353
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1,039
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1,158
  106
  125
  145
  168
  192
  218
  245
  274
  305
  337
  371
  407
  443
  482
  522
  563
  606
  651
  698
  746
  796
  849
  903
  960
  1,019
  1,080
  1,144
  1,211
  1,280
  1,353
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,038
  342
  372
  412
  452
  491
  530
  567
  604
  640
  675
  709
  743
  777
  811
  845
  879
  914
  950
  988
  1,026
  1,067
  1,109
  1,153
  1,199
  1,248
  1,299
  1,353
  1,410
  1,470
  1,533
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  178
  278
  296
  321
  344
  364
  381
  396
  408
  418
  426
  431
  434
  435
  435
  434
  431
  428
  424
  419
  415
  410
  405
  401
  397
  393
  389
  387
  384
  383
  382
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -865
  620
  668
  733
  796
  855
  911
  963
  1,012
  1,058
  1,101
  1,140
  1,177
  1,212
  1,246
  1,279
  1,310
  1,342
  1,374
  1,407
  1,441
  1,477
  1,514
  1,554
  1,596
  1,641
  1,688
  1,740
  1,794
  1,853
  1,915
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  294
  727
  794
  879
  964
  1,047
  1,129
  1,209
  1,287
  1,363
  1,438
  1,511
  1,583
  1,655
  1,727
  1,800
  1,873
  1,948
  2,025
  2,105
  2,187
  2,273
  2,363
  2,457
  2,555
  2,659
  2,768
  2,883
  3,005
  3,133
  3,268
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -557
  -379
  -415
  -460
  -504
  -547
  -590
  -632
  -673
  -713
  -752
  -790
  -828
  -865
  -903
  -941
  -979
  -1,019
  -1,059
  -1,100
  -1,144
  -1,188
  -1,235
  -1,284
  -1,336
  -1,390
  -1,447
  -1,508
  -1,571
  -1,638
  -1,708
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  549
  379
  419
  460
  500
  539
  577
  614
  650
  686
  721
  756
  790
  824
  859
  894
  930
  967
  1,004
  1,044
  1,085
  1,128
  1,172
  1,219
  1,269
  1,321
  1,376
  1,434
  1,495
  1,559
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  511
  325
  330
  330
  323
  311
  295
  275
  253
  228
  203
  178
  153
  129
  108
  88
  71
  56
  43
  32
  24
  17
  12
  8
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  84.5
  72.8
  63.6
  56.2
  50.2
  45.3
  41.3
  37.9
  35.1
  32.7
  30.7
  28.9
  27.4
  26.1
  24.9
  23.9
  23.0
  22.3
  21.6
  20.9
  20.4
  19.9
  19.4
  19.0
  18.6
  18.3
  17.9
  17.7
  17.4
  17.1

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that primarily originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. The company is qualified as a real estate investment trust (REIT) under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if it distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.5
Price to Sales 6.3
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 37.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 72.3%
Total Debt to Equity 72.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.5%
EBITDA Margin 79.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.4%
Operating Margin 72.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 59.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
Net Profit Margin 59.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 101.3%

ARI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $264 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for ARI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARI is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1932 million for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.58 million for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Apollo Commerical Finance posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ GFG Alliance to Buy Australia's Arrium   [Jul-18-17 07:23PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Apollo Commerical Finance posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 05:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ Five Yields Up To 10% With 40% Price Upside, Too   [Apr-09-17 08:17AM  Forbes]
▶ Apollo Commerical Finance posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Adeptus Health Inc (ADPT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-05-16 04:35PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 09:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of ARI Financial statements of ARI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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