Intrinsic value of ARK Restaurants - ARKR

Previous Close

$23.82

  Intrinsic Value

$28.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+21%

  Value-price divergence*

+8%

Previous close

$23.82

 
Intrinsic value

$28.80

 
Up/down potential

+21%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+8%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARKR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  150
  153
  157
  161
  165
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  283
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  407
  427
  448
  469
  492
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  170
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  439
  460
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  143
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  170
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  439
  460
Operating income, $m
  7
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
EBITDA, $m
  12
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Tax expense, $m
  3
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Net income, $m
  4
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  68
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.459
  2.468
  2.453
  2.477
  2.463
  2.464
  2.479
  2.459
  2.474
  2.468
  2.463
  2.442
  2.461
  2.452
  2.454
  2.455
  2.467
  2.455
  2.461
  2.458
  2.452
  2.466
  2.449
  2.458
  2.457
  2.462
  2.452
  2.454
  2.462
  2.455
  2.460
Average production assets, $m
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Total debt, $m
  8
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
Total liabilities, $m
  28
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Total equity, $m
  40
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  113
  118
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  68
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
  71
  74
  76
  80
  83
  85
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  173
  182
  191
  200
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.541
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  4
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  11
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  11
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Ark Restaurants Corp., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates restaurants and bars in the United States. As of October 1, 2016, it owned and/or operated 21 restaurants and bars, including 6 facilities located in New York City; 2 in Washington, D.C.; 5 in Las Vegas, Nevada; 3 in Atlantic City, New Jersey; 1 at the Foxwoods Resort Casino in Ledyard, Connecticut; 1 in the Faneuil Hall Marketplace in Boston, Massachusetts; and 3 on the east coast of Florida, as well as had 19 fast food concepts and catering operations. Ark Restaurants Corp. was founded in 1983 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ARK Restaurants (ARKR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.5%
Total Debt to Equity 20%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Equity 10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.3%
EBITDA Margin 8.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin 4.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
Payout Ratio 75%

ARKR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARKR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $150 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ARK Restaurants. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ARK Restaurants. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARKR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ARKR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ARK Restaurants, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ARK Restaurants.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARKR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARKR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ARK Restaurants.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ARK Restaurants. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARKR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARKR are equal to 9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ARK Restaurants operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARKR is equal to -3.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $40 million for ARK Restaurants - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 3.313 million for ARK Restaurants is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ARK Restaurants at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ark Restaurants posts 3Q profit   [Aug-10-17 11:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [11:47AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Jun-05-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Owner of Sequoia reveals when the Georgetown restaurant and bar will reopen   [May-15-17 07:20AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Ark Restaurants reports 2Q loss   [May-12-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Mar-01-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants posts 1Q profit   [04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [11:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [12:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Dec-07-16 04:20PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Sep-07-16 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [12:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Stock Repurchase Program   [Jul-05-16 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Jun-02-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Mar-01-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [Feb-11-16 02:42PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Dec-07  04:49PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Ark Restaurants Corp.   [Aug-08  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [02:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Jun-09  02:54PM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Ark Restaurants Corp.   [May-14  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Conference Call   [03:24PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ark Restaurants Announces Declaration of Dividend   [Mar-03  03:22PM  at noodls]
▶ 10-Q for Ark Restaurants Corp.   [Feb-12  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of ARKR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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