Intrinsic value of Alliance Resource Partners - ARLP

Previous Close

$20.65

  Intrinsic Value

$19.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-5%

Previous close

$20.65

 
Intrinsic value

$19.59

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -15.08
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,931
  1,970
  2,015
  2,067
  2,125
  2,189
  2,260
  2,337
  2,420
  2,510
  2,606
  2,709
  2,819
  2,936
  3,061
  3,193
  3,333
  3,481
  3,638
  3,803
  3,978
  4,162
  4,357
  4,562
  4,777
  5,005
  5,244
  5,496
  5,762
  6,041
  6,334
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,636
  1,674
  1,716
  1,764
  1,817
  1,876
  1,939
  2,008
  2,082
  2,161
  2,232
  2,323
  2,419
  2,522
  2,631
  2,746
  2,868
  2,997
  3,134
  3,277
  3,429
  3,590
  3,759
  3,936
  4,124
  4,321
  4,529
  4,747
  4,977
  5,219
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,566
  1,636
  1,674
  1,716
  1,764
  1,817
  1,876
  1,939
  2,008
  2,082
  2,161
  2,232
  2,323
  2,419
  2,522
  2,631
  2,746
  2,868
  2,997
  3,134
  3,277
  3,429
  3,590
  3,759
  3,936
  4,124
  4,321
  4,529
  4,747
  4,977
  5,219
Operating income, $m
  366
  333
  341
  350
  360
  372
  384
  398
  412
  428
  445
  477
  496
  517
  539
  562
  587
  613
  640
  669
  700
  733
  767
  803
  841
  881
  923
  968
  1,014
  1,063
  1,115
EBITDA, $m
  689
  654
  669
  686
  705
  727
  750
  776
  804
  833
  865
  900
  936
  975
  1,016
  1,060
  1,107
  1,156
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,382
  1,446
  1,514
  1,586
  1,662
  1,741
  1,825
  1,913
  2,006
  2,103
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
Earnings before tax, $m
  340
  310
  317
  325
  335
  345
  356
  368
  381
  395
  410
  440
  457
  476
  495
  516
  538
  561
  586
  612
  639
  668
  698
  730
  764
  800
  837
  877
  918
  962
  1,008
Tax expense, $m
  0
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  180
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
Net income, $m
  339
  226
  232
  238
  244
  252
  260
  269
  278
  289
  300
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  393
  410
  428
  446
  466
  488
  510
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,193
  2,196
  2,246
  2,304
  2,369
  2,441
  2,519
  2,605
  2,698
  2,798
  2,906
  3,020
  3,143
  3,274
  3,412
  3,559
  3,715
  3,881
  4,055
  4,240
  4,435
  4,640
  4,857
  5,085
  5,326
  5,580
  5,847
  6,128
  6,423
  6,734
  7,062
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,153
  2,196
  2,246
  2,304
  2,369
  2,441
  2,519
  2,605
  2,698
  2,798
  2,906
  3,020
  3,143
  3,274
  3,412
  3,559
  3,715
  3,881
  4,055
  4,240
  4,435
  4,640
  4,857
  5,085
  5,326
  5,580
  5,847
  6,128
  6,423
  6,734
  7,062
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
  0.897
Average production assets, $m
  1,717
  1,751
  1,791
  1,837
  1,889
  1,946
  2,009
  2,078
  2,152
  2,231
  2,317
  2,409
  2,506
  2,610
  2,721
  2,838
  2,963
  3,095
  3,234
  3,381
  3,536
  3,700
  3,873
  4,055
  4,247
  4,449
  4,662
  4,886
  5,122
  5,370
  5,631
Working capital, $m
  -50
  89
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
Total debt, $m
  662
  644
  669
  697
  730
  765
  804
  847
  893
  942
  995
  1,052
  1,113
  1,177
  1,246
  1,319
  1,396
  1,478
  1,564
  1,656
  1,752
  1,854
  1,961
  2,074
  2,193
  2,319
  2,451
  2,590
  2,737
  2,891
  3,052
Total liabilities, $m
  1,105
  1,087
  1,112
  1,140
  1,173
  1,208
  1,247
  1,290
  1,336
  1,385
  1,438
  1,495
  1,556
  1,620
  1,689
  1,762
  1,839
  1,921
  2,007
  2,099
  2,195
  2,297
  2,404
  2,517
  2,636
  2,762
  2,894
  3,033
  3,180
  3,334
  3,495
Total equity, $m
  1,088
  1,109
  1,134
  1,164
  1,196
  1,233
  1,272
  1,316
  1,363
  1,413
  1,467
  1,525
  1,587
  1,653
  1,723
  1,798
  1,876
  1,960
  2,048
  2,141
  2,239
  2,343
  2,453
  2,568
  2,690
  2,818
  2,953
  3,094
  3,244
  3,401
  3,566
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,193
  2,196
  2,246
  2,304
  2,369
  2,441
  2,519
  2,606
  2,699
  2,798
  2,905
  3,020
  3,143
  3,273
  3,412
  3,560
  3,715
  3,881
  4,055
  4,240
  4,434
  4,640
  4,857
  5,085
  5,326
  5,580
  5,847
  6,127
  6,424
  6,735
  7,061
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.608
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.487
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  339
  226
  232
  238
  244
  252
  260
  269
  278
  289
  300
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  393
  410
  428
  446
  466
  488
  510
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  323
  321
  328
  336
  345
  355
  366
  378
  391
  405
  420
  423
  440
  458
  477
  498
  520
  543
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
  711
  745
  781
  818
  857
  899
  942
  988
Funds from operations, $m
  730
  547
  559
  574
  589
  607
  626
  647
  669
  694
  720
  744
  774
  805
  839
  875
  912
  953
  995
  1,040
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,245
  1,303
  1,365
  1,429
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
  1,724
Change in working capital, $m
  26
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  704
  545
  557
  571
  587
  604
  623
  643
  666
  690
  715
  739
  769
  800
  833
  869
  906
  946
  988
  1,032
  1,079
  1,128
  1,181
  1,235
  1,293
  1,354
  1,418
  1,486
  1,557
  1,632
  1,711
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -301
  -307
  -314
  -322
  -331
  -341
  -352
  -364
  -377
  -391
  -406
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -477
  -498
  -520
  -543
  -567
  -593
  -620
  -649
  -679
  -711
  -745
  -781
  -818
  -857
  -899
  -942
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -192
  -335
  -347
  -360
  -374
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -498
  -521
  -544
  -569
  -594
  -622
  -652
  -682
  -714
  -748
  -784
  -822
  -861
  -903
  -947
  -994
  -1,042
  -1,093
  -1,147
  -1,203
Free cash flow, $m
  512
  210
  210
  211
  213
  215
  218
  222
  227
  232
  238
  241
  248
  256
  265
  274
  284
  294
  306
  318
  331
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  508
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -294
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -257
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  254
  232
  235
  239
  245
  251
  257
  265
  273
  282
  291
  298
  309
  321
  333
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  509
  532
  557
  583
  610
  639
  670
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -101
  -21
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  211
  209
  210
  212
  214
  218
  222
  226
  231
  237
  240
  247
  255
  263
  272
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
  371
  388
  404
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  203
  192
  183
  175
  166
  158
  150
  141
  133
  124
  114
  105
  97
  88
  80
  72
  64
  56
  49
  42
  35
  30
  24
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. is a producer and marketer of coal primarily to the United States utilities and industrial users. The Company operates through segments, including Illinois Basin, Appalachia, and Other and Corporate. The Illinois Basin segment consists of various operating segments, including Webster County Coal, LLC's Dotiki mining complex, Gibson County Coal, LLC's mining complex, which includes the Gibson North mine and Gibson South mine, Hopkins County Coal, LLC's mining complex, which includes the Elk Creek mine, the Pleasant View surface mineable reserves and the Fies property, White County Coal, LLC's, Pattiki mining complex, Warrior Coal, LLC's mining complex, Sebree Mining, LLC's mining complex, which includes the Onton mine and River View Coal, LLC mining complex. The Appalachia segment consists of multiple operating segments, including the Mettiki mining complex, the Tunnel Ridge mining complex and the MC Mining mining complex.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 4.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -15.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -57.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 44.6%
Total Debt to Equity 60.8%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Return On Total Capital 18.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Return On Equity 32.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 98.6%
EBITDA Margin 35.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
Operating Margin 18.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 17.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Net Profit Margin 17.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 73.2%

ARLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1931 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alliance Resource Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alliance Resource Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ARLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alliance Resource Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alliance Resource Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Alliance Resource Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alliance Resource Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARLP are equal to 88.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alliance Resource Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARLP is equal to 4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1088 million for Alliance Resource Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.751 million for Alliance Resource Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alliance Resource Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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Financial statements of ARLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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