Intrinsic value of Armour Residential REIT - ARR

Previous Close

$26.10

  Intrinsic Value

$5.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$26.10

 
Intrinsic value

$5.88

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ARR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  111
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
Operating income, $m
  -46
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
EBITDA, $m
  -46
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
Interest expense (income), $m
  194
  229
  246
  252
  259
  266
  274
  283
  293
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  478
  500
  524
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  692
  726
  761
Earnings before tax, $m
  -46
  -261
  -279
  -285
  -293
  -301
  -311
  -321
  -332
  -344
  -357
  -370
  -385
  -401
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -475
  -496
  -518
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -621
  -651
  -682
  -714
  -749
  -785
  -823
  -863
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -46
  -261
  -279
  -285
  -293
  -301
  -311
  -321
  -332
  -344
  -357
  -370
  -385
  -401
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -475
  -496
  -518
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -621
  -651
  -682
  -714
  -749
  -785
  -823
  -863

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  272
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,978
  8,288
  8,478
  8,696
  8,941
  9,212
  9,509
  9,833
  10,183
  10,561
  10,966
  11,400
  11,863
  12,355
  12,879
  13,434
  14,023
  14,646
  15,305
  16,002
  16,737
  17,513
  18,331
  19,193
  20,102
  21,059
  22,067
  23,127
  24,243
  25,417
  26,652
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,706
  8,288
  8,478
  8,696
  8,941
  9,212
  9,509
  9,833
  10,183
  10,561
  10,966
  11,400
  11,863
  12,355
  12,879
  13,434
  14,023
  14,646
  15,305
  16,002
  16,737
  17,513
  18,331
  19,193
  20,102
  21,059
  22,067
  23,127
  24,243
  25,417
  26,652
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
  0.008
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
Total debt, $m
  6,818
  7,043
  7,206
  7,393
  7,603
  7,836
  8,091
  8,369
  8,669
  8,993
  9,341
  9,713
  10,110
  10,533
  10,982
  11,459
  11,964
  12,499
  13,064
  13,662
  14,292
  14,958
  15,660
  16,400
  17,180
  18,001
  18,865
  19,775
  20,733
  21,740
  22,800
Total liabilities, $m
  6,886
  7,111
  7,274
  7,461
  7,671
  7,904
  8,159
  8,437
  8,737
  9,061
  9,409
  9,781
  10,178
  10,601
  11,050
  11,527
  12,032
  12,567
  13,132
  13,730
  14,360
  15,026
  15,728
  16,468
  17,248
  18,069
  18,933
  19,843
  20,801
  21,808
  22,868
Total equity, $m
  1,092
  1,177
  1,204
  1,235
  1,270
  1,308
  1,350
  1,396
  1,446
  1,500
  1,557
  1,619
  1,685
  1,754
  1,829
  1,908
  1,991
  2,080
  2,173
  2,272
  2,377
  2,487
  2,603
  2,725
  2,854
  2,990
  3,133
  3,284
  3,443
  3,609
  3,785
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,978
  8,288
  8,478
  8,696
  8,941
  9,212
  9,509
  9,833
  10,183
  10,561
  10,966
  11,400
  11,863
  12,355
  12,879
  13,435
  14,023
  14,647
  15,305
  16,002
  16,737
  17,513
  18,331
  19,193
  20,102
  21,059
  22,066
  23,127
  24,244
  25,417
  26,653
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.244
  5.980
  5.990
  5.990
  5.990
  5.990
  5.990
  5.990
  6.000
  6.000
  6.000
  6.000
  6.000
  6.000
  6.010
  6.010
  6.010
  6.010
  6.010
  6.010
  6.010
  6.010
  6.020
  6.020
  6.020
  6.020
  6.020
  6.020
  6.020
  6.020
  6.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142
  0.142

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -46
  -261
  -279
  -285
  -293
  -301
  -311
  -321
  -332
  -344
  -357
  -370
  -385
  -401
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -475
  -496
  -518
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -621
  -651
  -682
  -714
  -749
  -785
  -823
  -863
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -188
  -261
  -279
  -285
  -293
  -301
  -311
  -321
  -332
  -344
  -357
  -370
  -385
  -401
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -475
  -496
  -518
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -621
  -651
  -682
  -714
  -749
  -785
  -823
  -863
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  -203
  -261
  -280
  -286
  -294
  -302
  -312
  -322
  -333
  -345
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -403
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -498
  -521
  -545
  -570
  -597
  -625
  -654
  -685
  -718
  -753
  -789
  -827
  -868
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  5,668
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  5,465
  -261
  -280
  -286
  -294
  -302
  -312
  -322
  -333
  -345
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -403
  -420
  -438
  -457
  -477
  -498
  -521
  -545
  -570
  -597
  -625
  -654
  -685
  -718
  -753
  -789
  -827
  -868
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  497
  164
  187
  210
  233
  255
  278
  301
  324
  348
  372
  397
  423
  449
  477
  505
  535
  565
  597
  631
  666
  702
  740
  780
  821
  865
  910
  958
  1,007
  1,060
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  346
  306
  316
  328
  340
  353
  367
  382
  397
  414
  432
  451
  471
  492
  515
  538
  563
  589
  617
  646
  677
  710
  744
  780
  818
  857
  899
  943
  989
  1,038
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5,356
  843
  470
  503
  538
  573
  608
  645
  683
  721
  762
  804
  848
  894
  941
  992
  1,043
  1,098
  1,154
  1,214
  1,277
  1,343
  1,412
  1,484
  1,560
  1,639
  1,722
  1,809
  1,901
  1,996
  2,098
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  109
  581
  190
  217
  244
  270
  296
  323
  349
  376
  404
  432
  461
  491
  521
  553
  586
  621
  656
  694
  732
  773
  815
  859
  905
  953
  1,004
  1,056
  1,112
  1,169
  1,230
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  133
  -346
  -306
  -316
  -328
  -340
  -353
  -367
  -382
  -397
  -414
  -432
  -451
  -471
  -492
  -515
  -538
  -563
  -589
  -617
  -646
  -677
  -710
  -744
  -780
  -818
  -857
  -899
  -943
  -989
  -1,038
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  235
  -116
  -99
  -84
  -70
  -57
  -44
  -32
  -21
  -10
  0
  10
  20
  29
  39
  48
  58
  67
  76
  86
  95
  105
  115
  125
  136
  146
  157
  168
  180
  192
Discount rate, %
 
  13.70
  14.39
  15.10
  15.86
  16.65
  17.49
  18.36
  19.28
  20.24
  21.25
  22.32
  23.43
  24.60
  25.83
  27.13
  28.48
  29.91
  31.40
  32.97
  34.62
  36.35
  38.17
  40.08
  42.08
  44.18
  46.39
  48.71
  51.15
  53.71
  56.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  207
  -89
  -65
  -47
  -32
  -22
  -14
  -8
  -4
  -2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  77.8
  63.1
  51.0
  41.1
  33.2
  26.7
  21.4
  17.2
  13.8
  11.0
  8.8
  7.1
  5.6
  4.5
  3.6
  2.9
  2.3
  1.8
  1.4
  1.2
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company invests in and manages a leveraged portfolio of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and mortgage loans. The Company invests in residential mortgage backed securities issued or guaranteed by a United States Government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), such as the Federal National Mortgage Association or the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, or a government agency, such as the Government National Mortgage Association (collectively, Agency Securities). The Company also invests in Interest-Only Securities, which are the interest portions of Agency Securities that are separated and sold individually from the principal portion of the same payment. The Company raises funds for additional funding through equity offerings (including preferred equity), unsecured debt securities and convertible securities (including warrants, preferred equity and debt), among others. It is managed by ARMOUR Capital Management LP.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Armour Residential REIT (ARR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -20.8
Price to Sales 14.7
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 624.4%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Total Capital -0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Equity -4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -12.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.8%
EBITDA Margin 227.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 156.1%
Operating Margin -70.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Pre-Tax Margin -70.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Net Profit Margin -70.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -276.1%

ARR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $65 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Armour Residential REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Armour Residential REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.7%, whose default value for ARR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Armour Residential REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Armour Residential REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 147.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Armour Residential REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Armour Residential REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARR are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Armour Residential REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARR is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1092 million for Armour Residential REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.443 million for Armour Residential REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Armour Residential REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Armour Residential REIT posts 3Q profit   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ REIT Stock With 8.6% Dividend Testing New Buy Point   [Sep-27-17 11:28AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks Up 1%; S&P Index Changes Stir These Stocks   [Sep-11-17 01:33PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ How these retail investors are playing the market   [Jul-31-17 03:46PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Armour Residential REIT posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 01:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Armour Residential REIT posts 1Q profit   [May-01-17 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Armour Residential REIT posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Co-CEOs at Armour Residential Buy Company Stock   [Jan-02-17 02:53AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 7 Good Stocks Paying Dividends Every Month   [Aug-19-16 09:20AM  at Kiplinger]
Financial statements of ARR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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