Intrinsic value of Array BioPharma - ARRY

Previous Close

$8.65

  Intrinsic Value

$0.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

  Value-price divergence*

+1829%

Previous close

$8.65

 
Intrinsic value

$0.10

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+1829%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARRY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  165.38
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  138
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  162
  167
  173
  179
  186
  194
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  326
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
  453
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  220
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  426
Operating income, $m
  -82
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
EBITDA, $m
  -80
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  -93
  4
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Net income, $m
  -93
  3
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  169
  172
  176
  181
  186
  192
  198
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  292
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  59
  172
  176
  181
  186
  192
  198
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  292
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.339
  0.820
  0.818
  0.818
  0.817
  0.813
  0.818
  0.819
  0.816
  0.814
  0.816
  0.819
  0.814
  0.817
  0.817
  0.817
  0.815
  0.819
  0.818
  0.817
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.817
  0.816
  0.817
  0.817
  0.817
  0.817
  0.818
  0.818
Average production assets, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Working capital, $m
  103
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Total debt, $m
  114
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  181
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  283
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  406
Total liabilities, $m
  207
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
Total equity, $m
  -38
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  169
  172
  177
  181
  186
  191
  198
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  529
  554
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -3.000
  3.600
  3.720
  3.860
  4.000
  4.140
  4.300
  4.450
  4.610
  4.760
  4.920
  5.080
  5.230
  5.380
  5.530
  5.670
  5.810
  5.950
  6.080
  6.200
  6.330
  6.450
  6.560
  6.670
  6.770
  6.880
  6.970
  7.070
  7.150
  7.240
  7.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.508
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -93
  3
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  -62
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -70
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  66
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  3
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -52
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  0
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  3
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  81
  -55
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -52
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Discount rate, %
 
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -49
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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Array BioPharma Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule drugs to treat patients with cancer in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company’s drugs in Phase III clinical trials include Binimetinib, Encorafenib, and Selumetinib for the treatment of cancer, as well as ASC08/Danoprevir, a protease inhibitor for hepatitis C virus. Its drug candidates in Phase II clinical trials comprise Filanesib, a kinesin spindle protein inhibitor for multiple myeloma; ARRY-797, a p38 inhibitor for Lamin A/C-related dilated cardiomyopathy; ASLAN001/Varlitinib, a pan-HER2 inhibitor for gastric or breast cancer; Ipatasertib/GDC-0068, an AKT inhibitor for cancer; Motolimod/VTX-2337, a toll-like receptor for cancer; Prexasertib/LY2606368, a chk-1 inhibitor for cancer; LOXO-101, a PanTrk inhibitor for cancer; and ONT-380/ARRY-380, an HER2 inhibitor for breast cancer. The company’s Phase I drugs include GDC-0994, an ERK inhibitor for cancer; and ARRY-382, a CSF1R inhibitor for cancer, as well as Phase Ib drug candidate comprises GDC-0575, a chk-1 inhibitor for cancer. Array BioPharma Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Array BioPharma (ARRY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.4
Price to Sales 9
Price to Book -32.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -17.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -17
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 165.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -300%
Total Debt to Equity -300%
Interest Coverage -22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -48.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.2%
Return On Total Capital -82.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -61.4%
Return On Equity -3720%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1086.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 83.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
EBITDA Margin -63%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.4%
Operating Margin -59.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -67.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.2%
Net Profit Margin -67.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARRY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARRY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $138 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Array BioPharma. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Array BioPharma. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARRY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for ARRY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Array BioPharma, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Array BioPharma.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARRY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARRY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Array BioPharma.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Array BioPharma. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARRY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARRY are equal to 4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Array BioPharma operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARRY is equal to -5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-38 million for Array BioPharma - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 170.231 million for Array BioPharma is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Array BioPharma at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Array BioPharma reports 4Q loss   [Aug-09-17 09:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Array BioPharma Inc. Fell 13.7% in July   [Aug-07-17 04:19PM  Motley Fool]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 20th   [Jul-20-17 11:08AM  Zacks]
▶ Colorado biotech makes deal with industry giant   [Jul-18-17 12:03PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Array BioPharma Inc. Sank 13.5% in May   [Jun-05-17 05:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Biotech Movers: Akari, Array, Amicus   [09:54AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Bristol-Myers Hookup Boosts Array BioPharma   [May-30-17 06:20PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Array BioPharma reports 3Q loss   [08:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Shalini Sharp Joins Array BioPharma Board of Directors   [Apr-27-17 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Array BioPharma Provides NEMO Update   [Mar-19-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Biotech Stock Rockets With More Fuel in the Tank   [Mar-14-17 08:02AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 5 Stock Picks Under $15 to Buy in March   [Mar-05-17 12:41PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ How High Can Array BioPharma Inc. Stock Go?   [Feb-22-17 02:09PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Want to Get In on Biotech? Check Out These 3 Stocks   [Feb-15-17 09:48AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Here's Why Array Biopharma Inc Stock Is Climbing Again Today   [Feb-09-17 04:33PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Array BioPharma 4Q Loss 14c/Share Beats Street   [12:22PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Why Array BioPharma Soared 23.7% in January   [Feb-02-17 04:22PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of ARRY Financial statements of ARRY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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