Intrinsic value of Arotech - ARTX

Previous Close

$3.30

  Intrinsic Value

$1.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

  Value-price divergence*

+33%

Previous close

$3.30

 
Intrinsic value

$1.16

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+33%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.12
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  277
  291
  305
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
Total operating expenses, $m
  93
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  254
  265
Operating income, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
EBITDA, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
Net income, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  109
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  102
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.912
  0.913
  0.915
  0.917
  0.911
  0.905
  0.916
  0.919
  0.914
  0.910
  0.913
  0.909
  0.913
  0.910
  0.907
  0.911
  0.915
  0.913
  0.911
  0.910
  0.914
  0.909
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.914
  0.911
  0.912
  0.910
Average production assets, $m
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
Working capital, $m
  24
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Total debt, $m
  14
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
Total liabilities, $m
  44
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Total equity, $m
  65
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  109
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  120
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.215
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.598
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  5
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.8
  93.5
  90.3
  87.1
  84.1
  81.4
  78.9
  76.7
  74.7
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
  73.0
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  73.0
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Arotech Corporation provides defense and security products worldwide. The company operates in two divisions, Training and Simulation, and Power Systems. The Training and Simulation division develops, manufactures, and markets multimedia and interactive digital solutions for engineering, use-of-force training, and operator training of military, law enforcement, security, emergency services, and other personnel. This division offers simulators, systems engineering support, and software products for training vehicle operators to the United States military, government, municipalities, and private industry; weapon simulations used to train military pilots, weapon employment information used in air launched weapons, and part-task simulators to train aircrew; and specialized use-of-force training simulators and systems for police, security personnel, and the military under the MILO Range trade name. The Power Systems division provides electronics engineering and design, system integration, rapid prototyping, and vertically production services for military, aerospace, and industrial customers, including hybrid power generation systems, smart power subsystems for military vehicles and dismounted applications, and aircraft and missile systems support for weapons and communications technologies. This division also develops and sells rechargeable and primary batteries, and smart chargers to the military and medical markets, and to private defense industry under the Epsilor name. In addition, it develops, manufactures, and markets primary batteries, rechargeable batteries, and battery chargers for the military; and produces water-activated lifejacket lights for commercial aviation and marine applications under the Electric Fuel name. The company was formerly known as Electric Fuel Corporation and changed its name to Arotech Corporation in September 2003. Arotech Corporation was founded in 1990 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arotech (ARTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -29.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 87.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 13.8%
Total Debt to Equity 21.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital -3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Equity -4.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Net Profit Margin -3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $93 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arotech. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Arotech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ARTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arotech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arotech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $24 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Arotech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arotech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARTX are equal to 15.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arotech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARTX is equal to 23.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $65 million for Arotech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.135 million for Arotech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arotech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Arotech Corp. : August 10, 2017   [Aug-10-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Arotech reports 2Q loss   [01:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Arotech Corp. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 04:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top 4 Technology Penny Stocks to Watch In 2017   [Jul-12-17 04:49PM  Investopedia]
▶ Beyond Tesla: 2 Lithium Stocks to Buy Now   [Jul-10-17 06:20PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Arotech Corp. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 02:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Arotech Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 03:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Beyond Tesla: 2 Lithium Stocks to Buy Now   [Jun-07-17 01:49PM  Zacks]
▶ Arotech reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 05:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Arotech Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Arotech Corp. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Beyond Tesla: 2 Lithium Stocks to Buy Now   [Apr-10-17 04:33PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Arotech Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 03:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Arotech Corp. : March 27, 2017   [Mar-27-17 03:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Arotech reports 4Q loss   [04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Fenix Parts Inc (FENX) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-18-16 10:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of ARTX Financial statements of ARTX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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