Intrinsic value of Arrow Electronics - ARW

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$70.50

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$70.50

 
Intrinsic value

$99.53

 
Up/down potential

+41%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ARW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  23,825
  24,302
  24,860
  25,499
  26,217
  27,011
  27,884
  28,833
  29,861
  30,969
  32,157
  33,428
  34,785
  36,230
  37,765
  39,394
  41,120
  42,948
  44,880
  46,922
  49,078
  51,353
  53,752
  56,281
  58,945
  61,752
  64,706
  67,816
  71,089
  74,531
  78,153
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  22,693
  23,209
  23,800
  24,462
  25,197
  26,002
  26,880
  27,830
  28,853
  29,951
  30,887
  32,140
  33,475
  34,893
  36,398
  37,994
  39,682
  41,468
  43,354
  45,346
  47,448
  49,665
  52,001
  54,463
  57,056
  59,786
  62,659
  65,683
  68,864
  72,210
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  759
  777
  797
  817
  837
  858
  880
  902
  924
  947
  971
  995
  1,020
  1,046
  1,072
  1,099
  1,126
  1,154
  1,183
  1,213
  1,243
  1,274
  1,306
  1,338
  1,372
  1,406
  1,441
  1,477
  1,514
  1,552
Total operating expenses, $m
  22,967
  23,452
  23,986
  24,597
  25,279
  26,034
  26,860
  27,760
  28,732
  29,777
  30,898
  31,858
  33,135
  34,495
  35,939
  37,470
  39,093
  40,808
  42,622
  44,537
  46,559
  48,691
  50,939
  53,307
  55,801
  58,428
  61,192
  64,100
  67,160
  70,378
  73,762
Operating income, $m
  859
  850
  874
  903
  937
  978
  1,023
  1,074
  1,130
  1,191
  1,259
  1,571
  1,650
  1,735
  1,826
  1,924
  2,028
  2,140
  2,259
  2,385
  2,519
  2,662
  2,813
  2,974
  3,144
  3,324
  3,514
  3,715
  3,928
  4,153
  4,391
EBITDA, $m
  1,018
  1,141
  1,165
  1,196
  1,232
  1,274
  1,321
  1,374
  1,432
  1,496
  1,566
  1,641
  1,723
  1,811
  1,906
  2,007
  2,115
  2,230
  2,353
  2,484
  2,623
  2,770
  2,927
  3,093
  3,268
  3,454
  3,651
  3,858
  4,078
  4,310
  4,555
Interest expense (income), $m
  142
  146
  156
  168
  182
  198
  215
  234
  255
  278
  302
  328
  356
  386
  418
  451
  487
  525
  565
  608
  653
  700
  750
  803
  858
  917
  978
  1,043
  1,111
  1,183
  1,259
Earnings before tax, $m
  715
  705
  718
  735
  756
  780
  808
  839
  875
  914
  957
  1,243
  1,294
  1,349
  1,408
  1,472
  1,541
  1,615
  1,693
  1,777
  1,867
  1,962
  2,064
  2,171
  2,286
  2,407
  2,536
  2,672
  2,817
  2,970
  3,132
Tax expense, $m
  190
  190
  194
  198
  204
  211
  218
  227
  236
  247
  258
  336
  349
  364
  380
  398
  416
  436
  457
  480
  504
  530
  557
  586
  617
  650
  685
  721
  761
  802
  846
Net income, $m
  523
  514
  524
  537
  552
  569
  590
  613
  638
  667
  698
  907
  944
  985
  1,028
  1,075
  1,125
  1,179
  1,236
  1,297
  1,363
  1,432
  1,506
  1,585
  1,669
  1,757
  1,851
  1,951
  2,056
  2,168
  2,286

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  534
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,206
  13,942
  14,263
  14,630
  15,041
  15,497
  15,997
  16,542
  17,132
  17,767
  18,449
  19,179
  19,957
  20,786
  21,667
  22,601
  23,592
  24,640
  25,749
  26,920
  28,157
  29,462
  30,839
  32,290
  33,818
  35,428
  37,123
  38,908
  40,785
  42,760
  44,838
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,672
  13,942
  14,263
  14,630
  15,041
  15,497
  15,997
  16,542
  17,132
  17,767
  18,449
  19,179
  19,957
  20,786
  21,667
  22,601
  23,592
  24,640
  25,749
  26,920
  28,157
  29,462
  30,839
  32,290
  33,818
  35,428
  37,123
  38,908
  40,785
  42,760
  44,838
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
  1.743
Average production assets, $m
  1,091
  1,118
  1,144
  1,173
  1,206
  1,243
  1,283
  1,326
  1,374
  1,425
  1,479
  1,538
  1,600
  1,667
  1,737
  1,812
  1,892
  1,976
  2,064
  2,158
  2,258
  2,362
  2,473
  2,589
  2,711
  2,841
  2,976
  3,120
  3,270
  3,428
  3,595
Working capital, $m
  3,628
  3,256
  3,331
  3,417
  3,513
  3,620
  3,736
  3,864
  4,001
  4,150
  4,309
  4,479
  4,661
  4,855
  5,061
  5,279
  5,510
  5,755
  6,014
  6,288
  6,576
  6,881
  7,203
  7,542
  7,899
  8,275
  8,671
  9,087
  9,526
  9,987
  10,472
Total debt, $m
  2,790
  2,882
  3,109
  3,369
  3,661
  3,984
  4,339
  4,725
  5,144
  5,594
  6,078
  6,595
  7,147
  7,734
  8,359
  9,021
  9,724
  10,467
  11,253
  12,084
  12,961
  13,886
  14,862
  15,890
  16,974
  18,116
  19,318
  20,583
  21,914
  23,314
  24,787
Total liabilities, $m
  9,793
  9,885
  10,112
  10,372
  10,664
  10,987
  11,342
  11,728
  12,147
  12,597
  13,081
  13,598
  14,150
  14,737
  15,362
  16,024
  16,727
  17,470
  18,256
  19,087
  19,964
  20,889
  21,865
  22,893
  23,977
  25,119
  26,321
  27,586
  28,917
  30,317
  31,790
Total equity, $m
  4,413
  4,057
  4,151
  4,257
  4,377
  4,510
  4,655
  4,814
  4,985
  5,170
  5,369
  5,581
  5,808
  6,049
  6,305
  6,577
  6,865
  7,170
  7,493
  7,834
  8,194
  8,574
  8,974
  9,396
  9,841
  10,310
  10,803
  11,322
  11,868
  12,443
  13,048
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,206
  13,942
  14,263
  14,629
  15,041
  15,497
  15,997
  16,542
  17,132
  17,767
  18,450
  19,179
  19,958
  20,786
  21,667
  22,601
  23,592
  24,640
  25,749
  26,921
  28,158
  29,463
  30,839
  32,289
  33,818
  35,429
  37,124
  38,908
  40,785
  42,760
  44,838
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.632
  0.710
  0.750
  0.790
  0.840
  0.880
  0.930
  0.980
  1.030
  1.080
  1.130
  1.180
  1.230
  1.280
  1.330
  1.370
  1.420
  1.460
  1.500
  1.540
  1.580
  1.620
  1.660
  1.690
  1.720
  1.760
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.870
  1.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  523
  514
  524
  537
  552
  569
  590
  613
  638
  667
  698
  907
  944
  985
  1,028
  1,075
  1,125
  1,179
  1,236
  1,297
  1,363
  1,432
  1,506
  1,585
  1,669
  1,757
  1,851
  1,951
  2,056
  2,168
  2,286
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  159
  290
  292
  293
  295
  296
  298
  300
  302
  305
  307
  71
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
Funds from operations, $m
  -33
  805
  816
  830
  846
  865
  888
  913
  941
  972
  1,005
  978
  1,018
  1,061
  1,108
  1,158
  1,212
  1,269
  1,331
  1,396
  1,466
  1,541
  1,620
  1,704
  1,793
  1,887
  1,988
  2,094
  2,206
  2,325
  2,451
Change in working capital, $m
  -389
  64
  75
  86
  96
  107
  117
  127
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  194
  206
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  289
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
  461
  485
Cash from operations, $m
  356
  743
  741
  744
  750
  759
  771
  785
  803
  823
  846
  807
  836
  868
  902
  940
  980
  1,024
  1,072
  1,123
  1,177
  1,236
  1,298
  1,365
  1,436
  1,511
  1,592
  1,677
  1,768
  1,864
  1,966
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
New CAPEX, $m
  -165
  -27
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -167
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -241
  -77
  -77
  -81
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -209
  -218
  -229
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  666
  664
  662
  663
  667
  674
  683
  695
  709
  726
  681
  703
  728
  755
  785
  818
  854
  892
  934
  979
  1,028
  1,080
  1,135
  1,195
  1,258
  1,326
  1,397
  1,474
  1,555
  1,642
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  362
  186
  227
  260
  292
  323
  355
  386
  418
  450
  483
  517
  552
  588
  624
  663
  702
  743
  786
  831
  877
  925
  976
  1,029
  1,084
  1,141
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,400
  1,473
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -197
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  166
  186
  227
  260
  292
  323
  355
  386
  418
  450
  483
  517
  552
  588
  624
  663
  702
  743
  786
  831
  877
  925
  976
  1,029
  1,084
  1,141
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,400
  1,473
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  261
  852
  891
  922
  955
  990
  1,028
  1,069
  1,113
  1,160
  1,210
  1,198
  1,255
  1,315
  1,380
  1,448
  1,520
  1,597
  1,678
  1,765
  1,856
  1,953
  2,055
  2,164
  2,278
  2,399
  2,527
  2,663
  2,805
  2,956
  3,115
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -271
  -84
  -93
  -107
  -120
  -133
  -146
  -159
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -212
  -227
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -341
  -360
  -380
  -401
  -422
  -445
  -469
  -493
  -519
  -546
  -575
  -605
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  440
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,208
  798
  815
  835
  858
  883
  911
  941
  975
  1,011
  986
  1,028
  1,074
  1,123
  1,176
  1,232
  1,292
  1,356
  1,424
  1,496
  1,573
  1,655
  1,742
  1,834
  1,931
  2,034
  2,143
  2,259
  2,381
  2,510
Discount rate, %
 
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,142
  709
  677
  644
  610
  575
  539
  503
  465
  427
  365
  331
  296
  263
  230
  199
  170
  143
  119
  97
  78
  61
  47
  36
  27
  19
  14
  9
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Arrow Electronics, Inc. provides products, services, and solutions to industrial and commercial users of electronic components and enterprise computing solutions worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Global Components and Global Enterprise Computing Solutions. The Global Components segment markets and distributes semiconductor products and related services; passive, electro-mechanical, and interconnect products consisting primarily of capacitors, resistors, potentiometers, power supplies, relays, switches, and connectors; and computing and memory products, as well as other products and services. The Global Enterprise Computing Solutions segment offers computing solutions, including datacenter, cloud, security, and analytics solutions. This segment provides access to various services, including engineering and integration support, warehousing and logistics, marketing resources, and authorized hardware and software training. The company serves original equipment manufacturers, contract manufacturers, and other commercial customers. Arrow Electronics, Inc. was founded in 1935 and is based in Centennial, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arrow Electronics (ARW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 61.1%
Total Debt to Equity 63.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Equity 12.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
EBITDA Margin 4.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin 3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 26.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ARW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ARW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $23825 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arrow Electronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Arrow Electronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ARW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for ARW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arrow Electronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arrow Electronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ARW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $740 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ARW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Arrow Electronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arrow Electronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ARW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ARW are equal to 4.6%.

Life of production assets of 21.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arrow Electronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ARW is equal to 13.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4413 million for Arrow Electronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 88.544 million for Arrow Electronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arrow Electronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.2 billion.


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Stock chart of ARW Financial statements of ARW
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