Intrinsic value of Ascent Capital Group Series A - ASCMA

Previous Close

$17.01

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-36%

Previous close

$17.01

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-36%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASCMA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.24
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  570
  581
  595
  610
  627
  646
  667
  690
  714
  741
  769
  800
  832
  867
  904
  942
  984
  1,028
  1,074
  1,123
  1,174
  1,229
  1,286
  1,346
  1,410
  1,477
  1,548
  1,622
  1,701
  1,783
  1,870
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  498
  508
  519
  532
  547
  563
  580
  599
  619
  640
  607
  632
  658
  686
  715
  747
  780
  815
  852
  891
  933
  976
  1,022
  1,070
  1,121
  1,175
  1,232
  1,291
  1,353
  1,419
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
Total operating expenses, $m
  524
  535
  546
  558
  572
  588
  605
  623
  643
  664
  686
  654
  680
  708
  737
  767
  800
  835
  871
  910
  950
  993
  1,038
  1,086
  1,135
  1,188
  1,243
  1,302
  1,363
  1,427
  1,495
Operating income, $m
  46
  47
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  83
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  305
  321
  338
  356
  375
EBITDA, $m
  301
  252
  258
  264
  272
  280
  290
  300
  311
  323
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435
  456
  477
  500
  524
  550
  577
  605
  635
  667
  700
  736
  773
  812
  853
Interest expense (income), $m
  121
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
  330
  346
  363
  381
  400
Earnings before tax, $m
  -84
  -75
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -77
  -77
  -77
  -78
  -78
  -78
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
Tax expense, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -91
  -75
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -77
  -77
  -77
  -78
  -78
  -78
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,132
  2,178
  2,228
  2,285
  2,349
  2,420
  2,498
  2,584
  2,676
  2,775
  2,881
  2,995
  3,117
  3,246
  3,384
  3,530
  3,685
  3,848
  4,021
  4,204
  4,398
  4,601
  4,816
  5,043
  5,282
  5,533
  5,798
  6,077
  6,370
  6,678
  7,003
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,120
  2,178
  2,228
  2,285
  2,349
  2,420
  2,498
  2,584
  2,676
  2,775
  2,881
  2,995
  3,117
  3,246
  3,384
  3,530
  3,685
  3,848
  4,021
  4,204
  4,398
  4,601
  4,816
  5,043
  5,282
  5,533
  5,798
  6,077
  6,370
  6,678
  7,003
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.269
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
Average production assets, $m
  1,458
  1,487
  1,521
  1,560
  1,604
  1,652
  1,706
  1,764
  1,827
  1,894
  1,967
  2,045
  2,128
  2,216
  2,310
  2,410
  2,516
  2,627
  2,746
  2,870
  3,002
  3,142
  3,288
  3,443
  3,606
  3,778
  3,958
  4,149
  4,349
  4,559
  4,781
Working capital, $m
  30
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Total debt, $m
  1,765
  1,806
  1,850
  1,901
  1,958
  2,021
  2,091
  2,166
  2,248
  2,336
  2,431
  2,532
  2,640
  2,755
  2,877
  3,007
  3,144
  3,289
  3,443
  3,606
  3,777
  3,958
  4,149
  4,350
  4,562
  4,786
  5,021
  5,268
  5,528
  5,802
  6,091
Total liabilities, $m
  1,894
  1,934
  1,978
  2,029
  2,086
  2,149
  2,219
  2,294
  2,376
  2,464
  2,559
  2,660
  2,768
  2,883
  3,005
  3,135
  3,272
  3,417
  3,571
  3,734
  3,905
  4,086
  4,277
  4,478
  4,690
  4,914
  5,149
  5,396
  5,656
  5,930
  6,219
Total equity, $m
  239
  244
  249
  256
  263
  271
  280
  289
  300
  311
  323
  335
  349
  364
  379
  395
  413
  431
  450
  471
  493
  515
  539
  565
  592
  620
  649
  681
  713
  748
  784
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,133
  2,178
  2,227
  2,285
  2,349
  2,420
  2,499
  2,583
  2,676
  2,775
  2,882
  2,995
  3,117
  3,247
  3,384
  3,530
  3,685
  3,848
  4,021
  4,205
  4,398
  4,601
  4,816
  5,043
  5,282
  5,534
  5,798
  6,077
  6,369
  6,678
  7,003
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.385
  7.400
  7.420
  7.430
  7.440
  7.460
  7.470
  7.490
  7.500
  7.520
  7.530
  7.550
  7.560
  7.580
  7.590
  7.600
  7.620
  7.630
  7.640
  7.660
  7.670
  7.680
  7.690
  7.700
  7.710
  7.720
  7.730
  7.740
  7.750
  7.760
  7.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.107
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112
  0.112

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -91
  -75
  -76
  -76
  -76
  -77
  -77
  -77
  -78
  -78
  -78
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  255
  205
  208
  212
  217
  222
  227
  233
  239
  246
  253
  204
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
Funds from operations, $m
  175
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  156
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  228
  239
  250
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
  453
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  189
  129
  132
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  160
  167
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  226
  236
  248
  260
  273
  286
  301
  316
  332
  349
  367
  385
  405
  426
  448
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -146
  -149
  -152
  -156
  -160
  -165
  -171
  -176
  -183
  -189
  -197
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -361
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -435
  -456
New CAPEX, $m
  -211
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -222
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -200
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -229
  -239
  -251
  -262
  -275
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -461
  -484
  -507
  -533
  -559
  -586
  -615
  -646
  -678
Free cash flow, $m
  -11
  -45
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  43
  41
  44
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  137
  145
  154
  162
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -7
  80
  81
  82
  83
  85
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  121
  125
  133
  140
  148
  155
  163
  170
  177
  185
  136
  144
  152
  161
  170
  178
  187
  198
  207
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  75
  75
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  93
  96
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  86
  -80
  -81
  -82
  -83
  -85
  -86
  -87
  -88
  -89
  -90
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
Discount rate, %
 
  12.80
  13.44
  14.11
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.15
  18.01
  18.91
  19.86
  20.85
  21.89
  22.99
  24.14
  25.34
  26.61
  27.94
  29.34
  30.80
  32.34
  33.96
  35.66
  37.44
  39.32
  41.28
  43.35
  45.51
  47.79
  50.18
  52.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  72.3
  52.4
  38.1
  27.7
  20.3
  14.9
  11.0
  8.2
  6.1
  4.6
  4.1
  3.6
  3.2
  2.9
  2.6
  2.3
  2.1
  1.8
  1.7
  1.5
  1.3
  1.2
  1.1
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.7
  0.6
  0.6

Ascent Capital Group, Inc., through its subsidiary, Monitronics International, Inc., provides security alarm monitoring and related services to residential and business subscribers in the United States and Canada. The company monitors signals arising from burglaries, fires, medical alerts, and other events through security systems at subscribersÂ’ premises. It offers a range of residential security services, including hands-free two-way interactive voice communication with the monitoring center, cellular options, and an interactive service option, which allows the customer to control their security system remotely using a computer or mobile device. The company also provides third party contract monitoring services to other security alarm companies for monitoring their accounts on a wholesale basis. It markets and sells its products through a network of authorized dealers. The company was formerly known as Ascent Media Corporation and changed its name to Ascent Capital Group, Inc. in July 2011. Ascent Capital Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ascent Capital Group Series A (ASCMA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -24.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.9
LT Debt to Equity 733.9%
Total Debt to Equity 738.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital -4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Return On Equity -32.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.1%
EBITDA Margin 51.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.1%
Operating Margin 8.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.8%
Net Profit Margin -16%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Effective Tax Rate -8.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ASCMA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASCMA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $570 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ascent Capital Group Series A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ascent Capital Group Series A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASCMA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.8%, whose default value for ASCMA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ascent Capital Group Series A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ascent Capital Group Series A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASCMA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $36 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASCMA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for Ascent Capital Group Series A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ascent Capital Group Series A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASCMA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASCMA are equal to 255.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ascent Capital Group Series A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASCMA is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $239 million for Ascent Capital Group Series A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.288 million for Ascent Capital Group Series A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ascent Capital Group Series A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ascent Capital reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ MONI Receives A+ Rating From Better Business Bureau   [Feb-06-17 12:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MONI Smart Security Introduces Customer Bill Of Rights   [Jan-24-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Piling Into Ascent Capital Group Inc (ASCMA)   [Dec-04-16 03:31PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ MONI Rebranding Campaign Wins Gold MarCom Award   [Nov-01-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Monitronics Announces RISE Sub-Dealer Program   [Aug-16-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Monitronics Expands Information Technology Department   [Jul-15-16 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Monitronics Announces Two New Directors of Marketing   [Jul-12-16 03:21PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Monitronics Announces Exclusive Benefits for AARP Members   [Jun-30-16 03:53PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of ASCMA Financial statements of ASCMA Annual reports of ASCMA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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