Intrinsic value of On Assignment - ASGN

Previous Close

$78.00

  Intrinsic Value

$43.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

Previous close

$78.00

 
Intrinsic value

$43.04

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.16
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  2,440
  2,586
  2,739
  2,898
  3,064
  3,237
  3,418
  3,608
  3,805
  4,012
  4,228
  4,454
  4,691
  4,939
  5,198
  5,470
  5,755
  6,053
  6,366
  6,694
  7,037
  7,398
  7,776
  8,172
  8,588
  9,024
  9,482
  9,962
  10,466
  10,995
  11,550
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,325
  2,457
  2,595
  2,738
  2,888
  3,045
  3,209
  3,380
  3,558
  3,745
  3,854
  4,058
  4,273
  4,497
  4,732
  4,979
  5,237
  5,508
  5,791
  6,089
  6,400
  6,727
  7,070
  7,430
  7,808
  8,204
  8,619
  9,055
  9,513
  9,993
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,251
  2,379
  2,513
  2,652
  2,797
  2,948
  3,106
  3,272
  3,445
  3,624
  3,813
  3,924
  4,129
  4,346
  4,572
  4,809
  5,058
  5,318
  5,591
  5,876
  6,176
  6,489
  6,818
  7,164
  7,526
  7,906
  8,305
  8,722
  9,161
  9,621
  10,104
Operating income, $m
  190
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  312
  336
  361
  387
  415
  531
  561
  593
  626
  661
  697
  735
  776
  818
  862
  908
  957
  1,008
  1,062
  1,118
  1,178
  1,240
  1,305
  1,374
  1,446
EBITDA, $m
  252
  317
  337
  359
  381
  405
  429
  455
  482
  510
  539
  570
  602
  636
  671
  708
  747
  788
  831
  876
  923
  973
  1,025
  1,079
  1,137
  1,197
  1,260
  1,326
  1,396
  1,469
  1,546
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
Earnings before tax, $m
  157
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  276
  297
  320
  343
  368
  481
  508
  536
  566
  597
  629
  664
  700
  737
  777
  818
  862
  908
  956
  1,007
  1,060
  1,115
  1,174
  1,236
  1,300
Tax expense, $m
  60
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
Net income, $m
  97
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  268
  351
  371
  391
  413
  436
  459
  484
  511
  538
  567
  597
  629
  663
  698
  735
  774
  814
  857
  902
  949

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,753
  1,829
  1,937
  2,050
  2,167
  2,290
  2,418
  2,551
  2,691
  2,837
  2,990
  3,150
  3,317
  3,493
  3,676
  3,868
  4,070
  4,281
  4,502
  4,734
  4,977
  5,232
  5,499
  5,779
  6,074
  6,382
  6,706
  7,045
  7,402
  7,776
  8,168
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,726
  1,829
  1,937
  2,050
  2,167
  2,290
  2,418
  2,551
  2,691
  2,837
  2,990
  3,150
  3,317
  3,493
  3,676
  3,868
  4,070
  4,281
  4,502
  4,734
  4,977
  5,232
  5,499
  5,779
  6,074
  6,382
  6,706
  7,045
  7,402
  7,776
  8,168
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
  1.414
Average production assets, $m
  453
  481
  509
  539
  570
  602
  636
  671
  708
  746
  786
  828
  872
  919
  967
  1,017
  1,070
  1,126
  1,184
  1,245
  1,309
  1,376
  1,446
  1,520
  1,597
  1,679
  1,764
  1,853
  1,947
  2,045
  2,148
Working capital, $m
  275
  264
  279
  296
  313
  330
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  504
  530
  558
  587
  617
  649
  683
  718
  755
  793
  834
  876
  920
  967
  1,016
  1,068
  1,121
  1,178
Total debt, $m
  640
  693
  748
  805
  866
  928
  994
  1,062
  1,134
  1,209
  1,287
  1,369
  1,455
  1,544
  1,638
  1,737
  1,840
  1,948
  2,061
  2,180
  2,304
  2,435
  2,572
  2,715
  2,866
  3,024
  3,189
  3,363
  3,546
  3,737
  3,938
Total liabilities, $m
  884
  937
  992
  1,049
  1,110
  1,172
  1,238
  1,306
  1,378
  1,453
  1,531
  1,613
  1,699
  1,788
  1,882
  1,981
  2,084
  2,192
  2,305
  2,424
  2,548
  2,679
  2,816
  2,959
  3,110
  3,268
  3,433
  3,607
  3,790
  3,981
  4,182
Total equity, $m
  869
  893
  945
  1,000
  1,058
  1,117
  1,180
  1,245
  1,313
  1,385
  1,459
  1,537
  1,619
  1,704
  1,794
  1,888
  1,986
  2,089
  2,197
  2,310
  2,429
  2,553
  2,684
  2,820
  2,964
  3,114
  3,272
  3,438
  3,612
  3,795
  3,986
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,753
  1,830
  1,937
  2,049
  2,168
  2,289
  2,418
  2,551
  2,691
  2,838
  2,990
  3,150
  3,318
  3,492
  3,676
  3,869
  4,070
  4,281
  4,502
  4,734
  4,977
  5,232
  5,500
  5,779
  6,074
  6,382
  6,705
  7,045
  7,402
  7,776
  8,168
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.736
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  97
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  268
  351
  371
  391
  413
  436
  459
  484
  511
  538
  567
  597
  629
  663
  698
  735
  774
  814
  857
  902
  949
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  110
  111
  113
  114
  116
  117
  119
  120
  122
  124
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  100
Funds from operations, $m
  177
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  373
  393
  390
  411
  434
  458
  483
  509
  537
  566
  596
  628
  662
  697
  734
  773
  813
  856
  901
  948
  998
  1,050
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
Cash from operations, $m
  196
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  334
  352
  370
  367
  387
  409
  432
  455
  480
  507
  534
  563
  593
  625
  658
  693
  730
  769
  809
  852
  897
  944
  993
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -49
  -50
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -181
  -189
  -199
Free cash flow, $m
  174
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  266
  280
  295
  288
  305
  322
  340
  360
  380
  401
  423
  447
  471
  497
  524
  552
  582
  613
  646
  680
  716
  754
  794
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -118
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -171
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  231
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  320
  337
  355
  374
  370
  390
  412
  434
  458
  483
  509
  537
  565
  596
  627
  661
  696
  732
  771
  811
  854
  899
  946
  995
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -84
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -192
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  207
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  299
  292
  309
  326
  345
  364
  385
  406
  429
  452
  477
  503
  530
  559
  589
  620
  654
  688
  725
  763
  804
Discount rate, %
 
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  195
  170
  167
  164
  159
  153
  146
  138
  129
  119
  101
  92
  83
  73
  64
  55
  47
  39
  32
  26
  21
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

On Assignment, Inc. is a global provider of in-demand, skilled professionals in the technology, life sciences and creative sectors. The Company matches resumes with job descriptions to match people they know into positions they understand for temporary, contract-to-hire, and direct hire assignments. It operates through two segments. The Apex segment provides technical, scientific and creative professionals for temporary, contract-to-hire and permanent placement positions and consulting services to clients across the United States. The Apex segment includes Apex Systems, Lab Support and Creative Circle. The Oxford segment provides specialized niche staffing, permanent placement and consulting services in select skill and geographic markets. The Oxford segment includes Oxford Global Resources, CyberCoders and Life Sciences Europe. The Company has a network of branch offices throughout the United States, Canada and Europe.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  On Assignment (ASGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.4
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 73.6%
Total Debt to Equity 73.6%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 11.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.6%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Operating Margin 7.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

ASGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2440 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by On Assignment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of On Assignment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for ASGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of On Assignment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of On Assignment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for On Assignment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for On Assignment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASGN are equal to 18.6%.

Life of production assets of 21.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in On Assignment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASGN is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $869 million for On Assignment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.813 million for On Assignment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of On Assignment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ On Assignment beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-14-18 06:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ One of the region's largest private government contractors to be sold   [Jan-31-18 03:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ On Assignment Sees Composite Rating Move Up To 96   [Dec-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ CyberCoders Named Top Workplace in Orange County   [Dec-12-17 12:08PM  Business Wire]
▶ Composite Rating For On Assignment Rises To 96   [Nov-02-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ On Assignment tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-25-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Season Watch List: On Assignment   [Oct-11-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ On Assignment Trying To Close In On Key Technical Benchmark   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ CyberCoders Unveils the Most In-Demand Jobs for Fall   [Sep-19-17 12:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ On Assignment Completes Term Loan Reprice   [Aug-23-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ On Assignment beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-27-17 12:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ On Assignment Reports Results for Second Quarter of 2017   [Jul-26-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to On Assignment, Inc. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to On Assignment, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ On Assignment beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ LPC: On Assignment dispenses with loan Libor floor   [Apr-12-17 11:44AM  Reuters]
Financial statements of ASGN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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