Intrinsic value of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR - ASR

Previous Close

$204.46

  Intrinsic Value

$9.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$204.46

 
Intrinsic value

$9.67

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.33
  19.00
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
Revenue, $m
  494
  588
  691
  804
  927
  1,058
  1,198
  1,347
  1,505
  1,671
  1,845
  2,028
  2,218
  2,417
  2,623
  2,839
  3,062
  3,295
  3,537
  3,788
  4,049
  4,320
  4,602
  4,896
  5,201
  5,520
  5,851
  6,197
  6,557
  6,933
  7,325
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  322
  378
  440
  507
  579
  656
  737
  823
  914
  1,009
  1,109
  1,213
  1,322
  1,435
  1,553
  1,675
  1,802
  1,935
  2,072
  2,215
  2,363
  2,517
  2,678
  2,845
  3,019
  3,201
  3,390
  3,587
  3,792
  4,007
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  244
  322
  378
  440
  507
  579
  656
  737
  823
  914
  1,009
  1,109
  1,213
  1,322
  1,435
  1,553
  1,675
  1,802
  1,935
  2,072
  2,215
  2,363
  2,517
  2,678
  2,845
  3,019
  3,201
  3,390
  3,587
  3,792
  4,007
Operating income, $m
  250
  266
  313
  364
  420
  479
  543
  610
  682
  757
  836
  918
  1,005
  1,095
  1,188
  1,286
  1,387
  1,493
  1,602
  1,716
  1,834
  1,957
  2,085
  2,218
  2,356
  2,500
  2,651
  2,807
  2,970
  3,141
  3,318
EBITDA, $m
  277
  306
  360
  419
  483
  552
  625
  702
  785
  871
  962
  1,057
  1,156
  1,260
  1,368
  1,480
  1,596
  1,718
  1,844
  1,975
  2,111
  2,252
  2,399
  2,552
  2,712
  2,877
  3,050
  3,230
  3,418
  3,614
  3,819
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
Earnings before tax, $m
  255
  258
  303
  352
  405
  462
  522
  586
  654
  726
  801
  880
  962
  1,047
  1,136
  1,229
  1,326
  1,426
  1,530
  1,638
  1,751
  1,867
  1,989
  2,116
  2,247
  2,384
  2,527
  2,676
  2,831
  2,993
  3,162
Tax expense, $m
  71
  70
  82
  95
  109
  125
  141
  158
  177
  196
  216
  237
  260
  283
  307
  332
  358
  385
  413
  442
  473
  504
  537
  571
  607
  644
  682
  723
  764
  808
  854
Net income, $m
  184
  189
  221
  257
  295
  337
  381
  428
  478
  530
  585
  642
  702
  764
  830
  897
  968
  1,041
  1,117
  1,196
  1,278
  1,363
  1,452
  1,544
  1,640
  1,741
  1,845
  1,954
  2,067
  2,185
  2,309

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  177
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,480
  1,551
  1,824
  2,122
  2,445
  2,792
  3,162
  3,555
  3,971
  4,409
  4,869
  5,350
  5,852
  6,376
  6,922
  7,490
  8,080
  8,694
  9,331
  9,994
  10,683
  11,399
  12,143
  12,918
  13,724
  14,564
  15,438
  16,350
  17,300
  18,292
  19,327
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,303
  1,551
  1,824
  2,122
  2,445
  2,792
  3,162
  3,555
  3,971
  4,409
  4,869
  5,350
  5,852
  6,376
  6,922
  7,490
  8,080
  8,694
  9,331
  9,994
  10,683
  11,399
  12,143
  12,918
  13,724
  14,564
  15,438
  16,350
  17,300
  18,292
  19,327
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
Average production assets, $m
  1,012
  1,205
  1,417
  1,648
  1,899
  2,168
  2,456
  2,761
  3,084
  3,424
  3,781
  4,154
  4,545
  4,952
  5,375
  5,816
  6,275
  6,751
  7,247
  7,761
  8,296
  8,852
  9,430
  10,032
  10,658
  11,310
  11,989
  12,697
  13,435
  14,205
  15,009
Working capital, $m
  184
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
Total debt, $m
  226
  285
  353
  427
  508
  594
  686
  784
  888
  997
  1,111
  1,231
  1,356
  1,487
  1,623
  1,764
  1,911
  2,064
  2,223
  2,388
  2,559
  2,737
  2,923
  3,116
  3,316
  3,525
  3,743
  3,970
  4,207
  4,454
  4,712
Total liabilities, $m
  327
  386
  454
  528
  609
  695
  787
  885
  989
  1,098
  1,212
  1,332
  1,457
  1,588
  1,724
  1,865
  2,012
  2,165
  2,324
  2,489
  2,660
  2,838
  3,024
  3,217
  3,417
  3,626
  3,844
  4,071
  4,308
  4,555
  4,813
Total equity, $m
  1,153
  1,165
  1,370
  1,594
  1,836
  2,097
  2,375
  2,670
  2,982
  3,311
  3,656
  4,018
  4,395
  4,789
  5,198
  5,625
  6,068
  6,529
  7,008
  7,506
  8,023
  8,561
  9,120
  9,701
  10,307
  10,937
  11,594
  12,279
  12,993
  13,737
  14,515
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,480
  1,551
  1,824
  2,122
  2,445
  2,792
  3,162
  3,555
  3,971
  4,409
  4,868
  5,350
  5,852
  6,377
  6,922
  7,490
  8,080
  8,694
  9,332
  9,995
  10,683
  11,399
  12,144
  12,918
  13,724
  14,563
  15,438
  16,350
  17,301
  18,292
  19,328
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.196
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.749
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751
  0.751

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  184
  189
  221
  257
  295
  337
  381
  428
  478
  530
  585
  642
  702
  764
  830
  897
  968
  1,041
  1,117
  1,196
  1,278
  1,363
  1,452
  1,544
  1,640
  1,741
  1,845
  1,954
  2,067
  2,185
  2,309
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  40
  47
  55
  63
  72
  82
  92
  103
  114
  126
  138
  151
  165
  179
  194
  209
  225
  242
  259
  277
  295
  314
  334
  355
  377
  400
  423
  448
  474
  500
Funds from operations, $m
  165
  229
  269
  312
  359
  409
  463
  520
  580
  644
  711
  781
  854
  930
  1,009
  1,091
  1,177
  1,266
  1,358
  1,455
  1,554
  1,658
  1,766
  1,879
  1,996
  2,118
  2,244
  2,377
  2,515
  2,659
  2,809
Change in working capital, $m
  -63
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  228
  227
  266
  310
  356
  407
  460
  517
  577
  641
  707
  777
  850
  926
  1,005
  1,087
  1,172
  1,261
  1,354
  1,449
  1,549
  1,653
  1,761
  1,873
  1,990
  2,111
  2,238
  2,370
  2,507
  2,651
  2,801
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -63
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -103
  -114
  -126
  -138
  -151
  -165
  -179
  -194
  -209
  -225
  -242
  -259
  -277
  -295
  -314
  -334
  -355
  -377
  -400
  -423
  -448
  -474
New CAPEX, $m
  -92
  -193
  -212
  -231
  -251
  -269
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -374
  -390
  -407
  -424
  -441
  -458
  -477
  -495
  -515
  -535
  -556
  -578
  -602
  -626
  -652
  -679
  -708
  -738
  -770
  -804
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -69
  -227
  -252
  -278
  -306
  -332
  -360
  -387
  -415
  -443
  -471
  -500
  -528
  -558
  -589
  -620
  -652
  -686
  -720
  -757
  -794
  -833
  -873
  -916
  -960
  -1,007
  -1,056
  -1,108
  -1,161
  -1,218
  -1,278
Free cash flow, $m
  159
  1
  14
  31
  51
  74
  100
  130
  162
  198
  236
  277
  321
  367
  416
  467
  520
  575
  633
  693
  756
  820
  887
  957
  1,029
  1,104
  1,182
  1,262
  1,346
  1,433
  1,524
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  157
  63
  82
  105
  131
  160
  193
  228
  266
  307
  351
  397
  446
  498
  552
  608
  667
  728
  792
  858
  927
  999
  1,073
  1,150
  1,230
  1,313
  1,399
  1,489
  1,583
  1,680
  1,781
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -119
  -186
  -205
  -224
  -242
  -260
  -278
  -295
  -312
  -329
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -461
  -479
  -498
  -517
  -538
  -559
  -582
  -605
  -630
  -657
  -685
  -714
  -745
  -777
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  174
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  51
  -123
  -119
  -111
  -100
  -86
  -68
  -46
  -22
  6
  36
  69
  104
  142
  182
  224
  267
  313
  361
  410
  461
  514
  568
  624
  683
  743
  805
  869
  935
  1,004
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  49
  -112
  -103
  -92
  -78
  -62
  -46
  -29
  -13
  3
  17
  29
  40
  48
  53
  57
  58
  58
  56
  52
  48
  43
  37
  32
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. holds concessions to operate, maintain, and develop airports in the southeast region of Mexico. It operates nine airports that are located in the cities of Cancún, Cozumel, Mérida, Huatulco, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Villahermosa, Tapachula, and Minatitlán. The company also provides aeronautical services, which include passenger, aircraft landing and parking, passenger walkway, and airport security services. In addition, it offers non-aeronautical services that comprise leasing of space at its airports to retailers, restaurants, airlines, and other commercial tenants; complementary services, such as catering, handling, and ground transportation services; airport access, automobile parking, and fuel services. Further, it provides construction services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR (ASR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 333.4
Price to Sales 124.2
Price to Book 53.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 269
Price to Free Cash Flow 451
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 59
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 19.3%
Total Debt to Equity 19.6%
Interest Coverage 52
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Return On Total Capital 14.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Return On Equity 16.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.2%
EBITDA Margin 58.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.8%
Operating Margin 50.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 51.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.5%
Net Profit Margin 37.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Payout Ratio 46.2%

ASR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $494 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ASR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASR are equal to 204.9%.

Life of production assets of 37.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASR is equal to 2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1153 million for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.797 million for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
PAC Grupo Aeroport 110.43 61.88  sell
OMAB Grupo Aeroport 49.37 345.29  str.buy

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Stock chart of ASR Financial statements of ASR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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