Intrinsic value of Amtech Systems - ASYS

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$5.36

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$5.36

 
Intrinsic value

$114.78

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ASYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.29
  31.80
  29.12
  26.71
  24.54
  22.58
  20.83
  19.24
  17.82
  16.54
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.97
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
Revenue, $m
  120
  158
  204
  259
  322
  395
  477
  569
  671
  781
  902
  1,031
  1,169
  1,316
  1,472
  1,635
  1,807
  1,988
  2,176
  2,372
  2,577
  2,789
  3,011
  3,241
  3,480
  3,728
  3,986
  4,255
  4,534
  4,824
  5,126
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  105
  135
  171
  213
  261
  315
  375
  442
  515
  594
  678
  769
  866
  968
  1,076
  1,189
  1,308
  1,431
  1,560
  1,695
  1,835
  1,981
  2,132
  2,289
  2,452
  2,622
  2,799
  2,982
  3,173
  3,372
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  100
  103
Total operating expenses, $m
  128
  155
  186
  224
  267
  316
  372
  433
  502
  576
  657
  742
  835
  934
  1,037
  1,147
  1,262
  1,383
  1,507
  1,638
  1,775
  1,917
  2,065
  2,218
  2,378
  2,543
  2,715
  2,894
  3,080
  3,273
  3,475
Operating income, $m
  -8
  3
  17
  35
  55
  79
  105
  135
  169
  205
  245
  288
  334
  383
  434
  489
  546
  606
  668
  733
  801
  872
  946
  1,022
  1,102
  1,185
  1,271
  1,360
  1,453
  1,550
  1,651
EBITDA, $m
  -5
  6
  22
  40
  61
  86
  114
  146
  181
  219
  261
  305
  353
  404
  458
  515
  575
  638
  704
  772
  843
  918
  995
  1,075
  1,159
  1,246
  1,336
  1,430
  1,528
  1,629
  1,735
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  2
  16
  33
  53
  75
  101
  130
  162
  197
  235
  277
  321
  367
  417
  469
  523
  581
  640
  703
  768
  836
  907
  980
  1,056
  1,135
  1,218
  1,304
  1,393
  1,486
  1,582
Tax expense, $m
  4
  1
  4
  9
  14
  20
  27
  35
  44
  53
  63
  75
  87
  99
  112
  127
  141
  157
  173
  190
  207
  226
  245
  265
  285
  307
  329
  352
  376
  401
  427
Net income, $m
  -7
  2
  12
  24
  38
  55
  74
  95
  118
  144
  171
  202
  234
  268
  304
  342
  382
  424
  468
  513
  561
  610
  662
  715
  771
  829
  889
  952
  1,017
  1,084
  1,155

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  118
  119
  153
  194
  242
  296
  358
  427
  503
  586
  676
  773
  877
  987
  1,104
  1,227
  1,356
  1,491
  1,632
  1,780
  1,933
  2,093
  2,259
  2,431
  2,610
  2,797
  2,990
  3,192
  3,401
  3,619
  3,845
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  90
  119
  153
  194
  242
  296
  358
  427
  503
  586
  676
  773
  877
  987
  1,104
  1,227
  1,356
  1,491
  1,632
  1,780
  1,933
  2,093
  2,259
  2,431
  2,610
  2,797
  2,990
  3,192
  3,401
  3,619
  3,845
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.333
  1.328
  1.333
  1.335
  1.331
  1.334
  1.332
  1.333
  1.334
  1.333
  1.334
  1.334
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
  1.333
Average production assets, $m
  21
  28
  36
  45
  56
  69
  84
  100
  117
  137
  158
  180
  205
  230
  258
  286
  316
  348
  381
  415
  451
  488
  527
  567
  609
  652
  698
  745
  793
  844
  897
Working capital, $m
  45
  24
  31
  39
  48
  59
  72
  85
  101
  117
  135
  155
  175
  197
  221
  245
  271
  298
  326
  356
  386
  418
  452
  486
  522
  559
  598
  638
  680
  724
  769
Total debt, $m
  10
  25
  44
  67
  93
  124
  158
  196
  239
  285
  335
  389
  447
  508
  573
  641
  713
  788
  867
  948
  1,034
  1,122
  1,215
  1,311
  1,410
  1,514
  1,622
  1,734
  1,850
  1,971
  2,097
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  66
  85
  108
  134
  165
  199
  237
  280
  326
  376
  430
  488
  549
  614
  682
  754
  829
  908
  989
  1,075
  1,163
  1,256
  1,352
  1,451
  1,555
  1,663
  1,775
  1,891
  2,012
  2,138
Total equity, $m
  67
  53
  68
  86
  107
  132
  159
  190
  223
  260
  300
  343
  389
  438
  490
  545
  602
  662
  725
  790
  858
  929
  1,003
  1,079
  1,159
  1,242
  1,328
  1,417
  1,510
  1,607
  1,707
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  118
  119
  153
  194
  241
  297
  358
  427
  503
  586
  676
  773
  877
  987
  1,104
  1,227
  1,356
  1,491
  1,633
  1,779
  1,933
  2,092
  2,259
  2,431
  2,610
  2,797
  2,991
  3,192
  3,401
  3,619
  3,845
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.149
  0.470
  0.650
  0.780
  0.870
  0.940
  0.990
  1.040
  1.070
  1.090
  1.120
  1.130
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.433
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  2
  12
  24
  38
  55
  74
  95
  118
  144
  171
  202
  234
  268
  304
  342
  382
  424
  468
  513
  561
  610
  662
  715
  771
  829
  889
  952
  1,017
  1,084
  1,155
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
Funds from operations, $m
  -17
  5
  16
  30
  45
  63
  83
  105
  130
  157
  187
  219
  253
  290
  328
  369
  412
  456
  503
  552
  603
  656
  711
  768
  828
  890
  954
  1,021
  1,091
  1,163
  1,239
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  -10
  -1
  10
  21
  35
  52
  70
  91
  115
  141
  169
  199
  232
  268
  305
  344
  386
  429
  475
  523
  572
  624
  678
  734
  792
  853
  915
  981
  1,049
  1,120
  1,193
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
Cash from investing activities, $m
  11
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -85
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  -10
  -1
  8
  20
  34
  49
  68
  88
  110
  135
  162
  191
  223
  256
  292
  329
  368
  409
  453
  498
  545
  593
  644
  697
  752
  809
  869
  931
  995
  1,062
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  6
  18
  31
  46
  64
  84
  106
  130
  157
  185
  216
  249
  284
  321
  360
  401
  443
  488
  534
  583
  633
  686
  740
  797
  856
  917
  981
  1,047
  1,116
  1,188
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  20
  3
  13
  25
  40
  56
  75
  96
  120
  145
  173
  203
  235
  269
  305
  343
  383
  425
  469
  515
  562
  612
  664
  717
  773
  831
  891
  954
  1,019
  1,087
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  20
  3
  11
  21
  31
  41
  51
  60
  69
  76
  82
  87
  89
  90
  90
  87
  83
  78
  72
  65
  58
  51
  43
  37
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Amtech Systems, Inc. manufactures and sells capital equipment and related consumables for use in fabricating solar cells, LED, and semiconductor devices primarily in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Solar, Semiconductor, and Polishing. The Solar segment supplies thermal processing systems, including diffusion, plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition, and atomic layer deposition systems; and automation equipment comprising mass wafer transfer systems, sorters, long-boat transfer systems, load station elevators, buffers, and conveyers, as well as related parts and services. The Semiconductor segment designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal processing equipment, including solder reflow equipment and related controls for use by various semiconductor manufacturers, as well as in electronics assembly for automotive and other industries. Its products include horizontal and vertical diffusion furnaces used to produce semiconductors, silicon wafers, and microelectromechanical systems, as well as lapping equipment, polishing templates and wafer insert carriers, mass wafer transfer systems, loaders, and sorters. The Polishing segment provides silicon wafers for semiconductor products; sapphire substrates for LED lighting and mobile devices; silicon carbide wafers for LED and power device applications; various glass and silica components for 3D image transmission; quartz and ceramic components for telecommunications devices; and medical device components and computer hard disks under the PR Hoffman brand name. The company sells its products through sales personnel, as well as a network of independent sales representatives and distributors. The company was formerly known as Quartz Engineering & Materials, Inc. and changed its name to Amtech Systems, Inc. in 1987. Amtech Systems, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Amtech Systems (ASYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -10.1
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 28
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 13.4%
Total Debt to Equity 14.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Return On Total Capital -8.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Return On Equity -10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
EBITDA Margin -1.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.6%
Operating Margin -6.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Net Profit Margin -5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Effective Tax Rate -80%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

ASYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ASYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $120 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Amtech Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Amtech Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ASYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ASYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Amtech Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Amtech Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ASYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $49 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ASYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Amtech Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Amtech Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ASYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ASYS are equal to 17.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Amtech Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ASYS is equal to 15%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $67 million for Amtech Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.251 million for Amtech Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Amtech Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Amtech posts 1Q loss   [Feb-09-17 06:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amtech Systems shrinks quarterly loss on lower revenue   [Aug-04-16 06:56PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Amtech reports 3Q loss   [05:25PM  AP]
▶ Amtech Announces New Solar Orders   [Mar-17-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Amtech Systems Announces Officer Changes   [05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Amtech Systems reports large revenue jump in latest quarter   [Feb-08-16 04:00PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Amtech reports 1Q loss   [Feb-04-16 05:41PM  AP]
▶ Does Lombard Medical Inc (EVAR) Represent A Good Investment?   [Nov-26  08:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Amtech posts 4Q profit   [Nov-19  05:37PM  AP]
▶ 5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now   [Oct-21  10:53AM  at TheStreet]
▶ 10-Q for Amtech Systems, Inc.   [Aug-08  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Amtech Systems reports loss on soft market conditions   [Aug-07  02:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of ASYS Financial statements of ASYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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