Intrinsic value of Atlantic Power - AT

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$2.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  399
  428
  438
  450
  462
  476
  492
  508
  526
  546
  567
  589
  613
  639
  666
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  905
  948
  992
  1,039
  1,089
  1,141
  1,195
  1,253
  1,314
  1,378
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  590
  604
  619
  636
  655
  676
  698
  722
  749
  777
  794
  826
  860
  897
  935
  976
  1,020
  1,066
  1,114
  1,165
  1,219
  1,276
  1,336
  1,400
  1,466
  1,536
  1,610
  1,688
  1,770
  1,856
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  528
  590
  604
  619
  636
  655
  676
  698
  722
  749
  777
  794
  826
  860
  897
  935
  976
  1,020
  1,066
  1,114
  1,165
  1,219
  1,276
  1,336
  1,400
  1,466
  1,536
  1,610
  1,688
  1,770
  1,856
Operating income, $m
  -129
  -162
  -166
  -169
  -174
  -179
  -184
  -190
  -196
  -203
  -210
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -251
  -263
  -274
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -435
  -456
  -478
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  288
Earnings before tax, $m
  -129
  -240
  -245
  -251
  -258
  -266
  -275
  -284
  -294
  -306
  -317
  -317
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -573
  -601
  -630
  -662
  -695
  -729
  -766
Tax expense, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -114
  -240
  -245
  -251
  -258
  -266
  -275
  -284
  -294
  -306
  -317
  -317
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -573
  -601
  -630
  -662
  -695
  -729
  -766

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,457
  1,629
  1,666
  1,709
  1,757
  1,811
  1,869
  1,933
  2,002
  2,076
  2,155
  2,241
  2,332
  2,428
  2,531
  2,641
  2,756
  2,879
  3,008
  3,145
  3,290
  3,442
  3,603
  3,772
  3,951
  4,139
  4,337
  4,546
  4,765
  4,996
  5,238
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,371
  1,629
  1,666
  1,709
  1,757
  1,811
  1,869
  1,933
  2,002
  2,076
  2,155
  2,241
  2,332
  2,428
  2,531
  2,641
  2,756
  2,879
  3,008
  3,145
  3,290
  3,442
  3,603
  3,772
  3,951
  4,139
  4,337
  4,546
  4,765
  4,996
  5,238
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.291
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
Average production assets, $m
  1,033
  1,238
  1,266
  1,299
  1,335
  1,376
  1,420
  1,468
  1,521
  1,577
  1,638
  1,702
  1,772
  1,845
  1,923
  2,006
  2,094
  2,187
  2,286
  2,390
  2,499
  2,615
  2,738
  2,866
  3,002
  3,145
  3,295
  3,454
  3,620
  3,796
  3,980
Working capital, $m
  14
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Total debt, $m
  962
  983
  1,011
  1,044
  1,081
  1,121
  1,166
  1,215
  1,267
  1,324
  1,385
  1,450
  1,519
  1,593
  1,671
  1,755
  1,843
  1,936
  2,035
  2,140
  2,250
  2,366
  2,489
  2,618
  2,755
  2,898
  3,049
  3,208
  3,376
  3,552
  3,737
Total liabilities, $m
  1,171
  1,243
  1,271
  1,304
  1,341
  1,381
  1,426
  1,475
  1,527
  1,584
  1,645
  1,710
  1,779
  1,853
  1,931
  2,015
  2,103
  2,196
  2,295
  2,400
  2,510
  2,626
  2,749
  2,878
  3,015
  3,158
  3,309
  3,468
  3,636
  3,812
  3,997
Total equity, $m
  286
  386
  395
  405
  416
  429
  443
  458
  474
  492
  511
  531
  553
  576
  600
  626
  653
  682
  713
  745
  780
  816
  854
  894
  936
  981
  1,028
  1,077
  1,129
  1,184
  1,242
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,457
  1,629
  1,666
  1,709
  1,757
  1,810
  1,869
  1,933
  2,001
  2,076
  2,156
  2,241
  2,332
  2,429
  2,531
  2,641
  2,756
  2,878
  3,008
  3,145
  3,290
  3,442
  3,603
  3,772
  3,951
  4,139
  4,337
  4,545
  4,765
  4,996
  5,239
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.364
  2.550
  2.560
  2.580
  2.600
  2.610
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
  2.690
  2.710
  2.730
  2.750
  2.770
  2.790
  2.800
  2.820
  2.840
  2.850
  2.870
  2.890
  2.900
  2.910
  2.930
  2.940
  2.950
  2.970
  2.980
  2.990
  3.000
  3.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.146
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237
  0.237

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -114
  -240
  -245
  -251
  -258
  -266
  -275
  -284
  -294
  -306
  -317
  -317
  -330
  -345
  -360
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -573
  -601
  -630
  -662
  -695
  -729
  -766
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  121
  124
  126
  130
  133
  137
  141
  146
  151
  156
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  287
  300
  315
  330
  346
Funds from operations, $m
  129
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -311
  -327
  -344
  -361
  -380
  -399
  -419
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  -245
  -122
  -125
  -129
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -363
  -381
  -401
  -421
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -106
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -120
  -123
  -128
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -287
  -300
  -315
  -330
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -175
  -184
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -333
  -349
  -367
  -385
  -404
  -423
  -445
  -467
  -490
  -514
Free cash flow, $m
  111
  -375
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -344
  -360
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -575
  -603
  -633
  -665
  -698
  -733
  -769
  -808
  -848
  -891
  -936
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  23
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -20
  303
  238
  245
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  305
  318
  331
  346
  362
  378
  395
  414
  433
  454
  476
  499
  523
  549
  575
  604
  634
  665
  698
  733
  770
  808
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -89
  326
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  396
  415
  436
  457
  478
  502
  526
  553
  580
  609
  639
  672
  704
  740
  778
  816
  857
  900
  946
  993
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  -352
  -229
  -235
  -242
  -249
  -258
  -267
  -277
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -465
  -487
  -510
  -535
  -562
  -589
  -618
  -649
  -681
  -715
  -751
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  149
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  46.7
  24.8
  13.1
  6.9
  3.7
  1.9
  1.0
  0.5
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Atlantic Power Corporation owns and operates a fleet of power generation assets in the United States and Canada. As of December 31, 2015, its power generation projects in operation had an aggregate gross electric generation capacity of approximately 2,138 megawatts consisting of interests in 23 operational power generation projects across 9 states in the United States and 2 provinces in Canada. The company sells its electricity to utilities and other commercial customers. Atlantic Power Corporation was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Dedham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlantic Power (AT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.4
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -31.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 297.2%
Total Debt to Equity 336.4%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Total Capital -8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Return On Equity -31.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 14%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin -32.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -32.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Net Profit Margin -28.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Effective Tax Rate 11.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Payout Ratio -7.9%

AT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $420 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlantic Power. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Atlantic Power. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for AT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlantic Power, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlantic Power.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 137.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.1% for Atlantic Power.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlantic Power. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AT are equal to 288.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlantic Power operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AT is equal to 2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $435 million for Atlantic Power - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.221 million for Atlantic Power is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlantic Power at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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Stock chart of AT Financial statements of AT Annual reports of AT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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