Intrinsic value of Atlantic Power - AT

Previous Close

$2.25

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.25

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.00
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  399
  465
  501
  539
  577
  618
  659
  703
  748
  795
  844
  895
  948
  1,004
  1,062
  1,122
  1,185
  1,251
  1,320
  1,392
  1,467
  1,545
  1,628
  1,714
  1,804
  1,899
  1,998
  2,102
  2,210
  2,324
  2,444
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  555
  596
  638
  683
  729
  777
  826
  878
  932
  988
  1,025
  1,086
  1,150
  1,216
  1,285
  1,357
  1,433
  1,512
  1,594
  1,680
  1,770
  1,865
  1,963
  2,067
  2,175
  2,289
  2,407
  2,532
  2,663
  2,800
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  528
  555
  596
  638
  683
  729
  777
  826
  878
  932
  988
  1,025
  1,086
  1,150
  1,216
  1,285
  1,357
  1,433
  1,512
  1,594
  1,680
  1,770
  1,865
  1,963
  2,067
  2,175
  2,289
  2,407
  2,532
  2,663
  2,800
Operating income, $m
  -129
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -163
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -356
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  76
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  167
  178
  191
  204
  217
  231
  246
  261
  277
  294
  311
  330
  349
  369
  390
  412
  435
  459
  485
Earnings before tax, $m
  -129
  -165
  -165
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -254
  -271
  -288
  -285
  -305
  -324
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -413
  -438
  -464
  -491
  -519
  -548
  -579
  -611
  -645
  -681
  -718
  -757
  -798
  -840
Tax expense, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -114
  -165
  -165
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -254
  -271
  -288
  -285
  -305
  -324
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -413
  -438
  -464
  -491
  -519
  -548
  -579
  -611
  -645
  -681
  -718
  -757
  -798
  -840

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,457
  1,251
  1,348
  1,448
  1,552
  1,660
  1,772
  1,889
  2,011
  2,137
  2,269
  2,406
  2,549
  2,698
  2,854
  3,016
  3,185
  3,362
  3,547
  3,741
  3,943
  4,154
  4,376
  4,607
  4,850
  5,104
  5,370
  5,649
  5,942
  6,248
  6,569
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,371
  1,251
  1,348
  1,448
  1,552
  1,660
  1,772
  1,889
  2,011
  2,137
  2,269
  2,406
  2,549
  2,698
  2,854
  3,016
  3,185
  3,362
  3,547
  3,741
  3,943
  4,154
  4,376
  4,607
  4,850
  5,104
  5,370
  5,649
  5,942
  6,248
  6,569
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.291
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
  0.372
Average production assets, $m
  1,033
  988
  1,064
  1,143
  1,226
  1,311
  1,400
  1,492
  1,588
  1,688
  1,792
  1,900
  2,013
  2,131
  2,254
  2,382
  2,516
  2,655
  2,802
  2,954
  3,114
  3,281
  3,456
  3,639
  3,830
  4,031
  4,241
  4,462
  4,692
  4,934
  5,188
Working capital, $m
  14
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
Total debt, $m
  962
  771
  857
  947
  1,041
  1,138
  1,240
  1,345
  1,454
  1,568
  1,687
  1,810
  1,939
  2,073
  2,213
  2,359
  2,511
  2,671
  2,837
  3,011
  3,193
  3,383
  3,583
  3,791
  4,009
  4,238
  4,478
  4,729
  4,992
  5,268
  5,557
Total liabilities, $m
  1,171
  1,126
  1,213
  1,303
  1,397
  1,494
  1,595
  1,700
  1,810
  1,924
  2,042
  2,166
  2,294
  2,428
  2,568
  2,714
  2,867
  3,026
  3,193
  3,367
  3,549
  3,739
  3,938
  4,147
  4,365
  4,594
  4,833
  5,084
  5,347
  5,623
  5,912
Total equity, $m
  286
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  270
  285
  302
  319
  336
  355
  374
  394
  415
  438
  461
  485
  510
  537
  565
  594
  625
  657
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,457
  1,251
  1,348
  1,448
  1,552
  1,660
  1,772
  1,889
  2,011
  2,138
  2,269
  2,407
  2,549
  2,698
  2,853
  3,016
  3,186
  3,362
  3,548
  3,741
  3,943
  4,154
  4,376
  4,608
  4,850
  5,104
  5,370
  5,649
  5,941
  6,248
  6,569
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.364
  6.160
  6.360
  6.540
  6.710
  6.860
  6.990
  7.120
  7.230
  7.340
  7.430
  7.520
  7.610
  7.680
  7.750
  7.820
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
  8.140
  8.190
  8.230
  8.270
  8.300
  8.340
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.146
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -114
  -165
  -165
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -254
  -271
  -288
  -285
  -305
  -324
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -413
  -438
  -464
  -491
  -519
  -548
  -579
  -611
  -645
  -681
  -718
  -757
  -798
  -840
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  120
  128
  136
  144
  152
  161
  171
  180
  190
  200
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  446
  469
  493
  519
Funds from operations, $m
  129
  -44
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -191
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -242
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -322
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  -46
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -206
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -260
  -275
  -291
  -308
  -326
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -252
  -266
  -280
  -295
  -311
  -328
  -346
  -364
  -383
  -403
  -424
  -446
  -469
  -493
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -303
  -319
  -336
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -412
  -433
  -455
  -478
  -503
  -529
  -556
  -584
  -613
  -644
  -677
  -711
  -747
Free cash flow, $m
  111
  -210
  -214
  -230
  -247
  -264
  -282
  -301
  -321
  -341
  -363
  -385
  -408
  -432
  -458
  -484
  -512
  -541
  -572
  -604
  -637
  -672
  -709
  -747
  -787
  -829
  -874
  -920
  -969
  -1,020
  -1,073
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  -51
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  209
  218
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -20
  308
  175
  189
  203
  218
  233
  249
  266
  283
  302
  299
  319
  339
  361
  383
  406
  431
  456
  483
  511
  540
  570
  602
  636
  671
  707
  746
  786
  828
  873
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -89
  257
  262
  279
  297
  315
  334
  354
  375
  397
  421
  422
  448
  473
  501
  529
  558
  590
  622
  657
  693
  730
  769
  811
  854
  900
  947
  997
  1,049
  1,104
  1,162
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  149
  -308
  -175
  -189
  -203
  -218
  -233
  -249
  -266
  -283
  -302
  -299
  -319
  -339
  -361
  -383
  -406
  -431
  -456
  -483
  -511
  -540
  -570
  -602
  -636
  -671
  -707
  -746
  -786
  -828
  -873
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -261
  -127
  -140
  -153
  -167
  -181
  -196
  -211
  -227
  -244
  -261
  -279
  -298
  -318
  -338
  -360
  -382
  -405
  -430
  -455
  -482
  -509
  -538
  -569
  -601
  -634
  -669
  -705
  -744
  -784
Discount rate, %
 
  11.70
  12.29
  12.90
  13.54
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.04
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.73
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -234
  -101
  -97
  -92
  -86
  -79
  -71
  -62
  -54
  -46
  -38
  -31
  -25
  -20
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  20.9
  8.7
  3.6
  1.5
  0.6
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Atlantic Power Corporation (Atlantic Power) owns and operates a fleet of power generation assets in the United States and Canada. The Company's power generation projects sell electricity to utilities and other commercial customers. Atlantic Power's segments include East U.S., West U.S. and Canada. The Company's East U.S. segment comprises natural gas, biomass, coal and hydro projects. The Company's projects under the West U.S. segment include Naval Station, Naval Training Center, North Island, Oxnard, Manchief and Frederickson, which are focused on natural gas, and Koma Kulshan, which is focused on hydro. Under the Canada segment, the Company's projects located in British Columbia include Mamquam, Mamquam and Williams Lake. Its Calstock and Tunis projects are located in Ontario. The Company's portfolio consisted of interests in 19 operational power generation projects across nine states in the United States and two provinces in Canada, as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlantic Power (AT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -31.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 297.2%
Total Debt to Equity 336.4%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Total Capital -8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Return On Equity -31.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 14%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin -32.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -32.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Net Profit Margin -28.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Effective Tax Rate 11.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Payout Ratio -7.9%

AT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $431 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlantic Power. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Atlantic Power. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.7%, whose default value for AT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlantic Power, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlantic Power.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 119.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.2% for Atlantic Power.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlantic Power. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AT stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AT are equal to 212.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlantic Power operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AT is equal to 3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-18 million for Atlantic Power - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 115 million for Atlantic Power is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlantic Power at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Atlantic Power Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [May-04-18 06:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Atlantic Power: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Atlantic Power Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-02-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 4Q loss   [Mar-01-18 07:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ IIROC Trade Resumption - Atlantic Power Corporation   [Jan-29-18 08:44AM  Newsfile]
▶ IIROC Trade Halt - Atlantic Power Corporation   [Jan-22-18 04:25PM  Newsfile]
▶ Atlantic Power Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-10-17 06:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 07:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Strong Value Utility Stocks To Buy Now   [Jun-27-17 04:02PM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 16th   [Jun-16-17 11:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 12th   [Jun-12-17 10:33AM  Zacks]
Financial statements of AT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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