Intrinsic value of Atlantic Power - AT

Previous Close

$2.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

  Value-price divergence*

-53%

Previous close

$2.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.55

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-53%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  399
  407
  416
  427
  439
  452
  467
  483
  500
  519
  539
  560
  583
  607
  632
  660
  689
  719
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,084
  1,136
  1,191
  1,248
  1,309
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  135
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  166
  172
  178
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  266
  279
  292
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  404
  424
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  415
  426
  436
  447
  458
  470
  481
  493
  506
  518
  531
  545
  558
  572
  587
  601
  616
  632
  647
  664
  680
  697
  715
  733
  751
  770
  789
  809
  829
  850
Total operating expenses, $m
  528
  550
  564
  578
  593
  608
  625
  641
  659
  678
  696
  712
  734
  755
  777
  801
  824
  849
  876
  902
  930
  959
  989
  1,020
  1,053
  1,086
  1,121
  1,157
  1,195
  1,233
  1,274
Operating income, $m
  -129
  -144
  -148
  -151
  -154
  -156
  -158
  -159
  -159
  -159
  -158
  -153
  -151
  -148
  -145
  -141
  -136
  -130
  -124
  -116
  -108
  -99
  -89
  -77
  -65
  -52
  -37
  -21
  -4
  15
  35
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -30
  -26
  -21
  -15
  -8
  0
  9
  19
  30
  43
  56
  71
  87
  105
  124
  144
  167
  190
  216
  244
  273
  304
  338
  374
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  67
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  100
  105
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  208
  218
  229
  241
Earnings before tax, $m
  -129
  -211
  -216
  -221
  -226
  -231
  -235
  -239
  -243
  -246
  -249
  -248
  -251
  -253
  -254
  -255
  -256
  -256
  -256
  -255
  -254
  -253
  -250
  -247
  -244
  -239
  -234
  -229
  -222
  -214
  -206
Tax expense, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -114
  -211
  -216
  -221
  -226
  -231
  -235
  -239
  -243
  -246
  -249
  -248
  -251
  -253
  -254
  -255
  -256
  -256
  -256
  -255
  -254
  -253
  -250
  -247
  -244
  -239
  -234
  -229
  -222
  -214
  -206

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,457
  1,438
  1,471
  1,509
  1,551
  1,598
  1,650
  1,706
  1,767
  1,833
  1,903
  1,978
  2,058
  2,144
  2,235
  2,331
  2,433
  2,542
  2,656
  2,777
  2,904
  3,039
  3,181
  3,331
  3,488
  3,654
  3,829
  4,013
  4,207
  4,411
  4,625
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,371
  1,438
  1,471
  1,509
  1,551
  1,598
  1,650
  1,706
  1,767
  1,833
  1,903
  1,978
  2,058
  2,144
  2,235
  2,331
  2,433
  2,542
  2,656
  2,777
  2,904
  3,039
  3,181
  3,331
  3,488
  3,654
  3,829
  4,013
  4,207
  4,411
  4,625
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.291
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
Average production assets, $m
  1,033
  1,054
  1,078
  1,106
  1,137
  1,171
  1,209
  1,250
  1,295
  1,343
  1,394
  1,449
  1,508
  1,571
  1,637
  1,708
  1,783
  1,862
  1,946
  2,034
  2,128
  2,227
  2,331
  2,440
  2,556
  2,677
  2,806
  2,940
  3,082
  3,232
  3,389
Working capital, $m
  14
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
Total debt, $m
  962
  937
  964
  994
  1,027
  1,065
  1,106
  1,151
  1,199
  1,252
  1,308
  1,368
  1,432
  1,500
  1,572
  1,649
  1,730
  1,817
  1,908
  2,004
  2,106
  2,213
  2,326
  2,445
  2,571
  2,703
  2,843
  2,989
  3,144
  3,306
  3,477
Total liabilities, $m
  1,171
  1,146
  1,173
  1,203
  1,236
  1,274
  1,315
  1,360
  1,408
  1,461
  1,517
  1,577
  1,641
  1,709
  1,781
  1,858
  1,939
  2,026
  2,117
  2,213
  2,315
  2,422
  2,535
  2,654
  2,780
  2,912
  3,052
  3,198
  3,353
  3,515
  3,686
Total equity, $m
  286
  292
  299
  306
  315
  324
  335
  346
  359
  372
  386
  402
  418
  435
  454
  473
  494
  516
  539
  564
  590
  617
  646
  676
  708
  742
  777
  815
  854
  895
  939
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,457
  1,438
  1,472
  1,509
  1,551
  1,598
  1,650
  1,706
  1,767
  1,833
  1,903
  1,979
  2,059
  2,144
  2,235
  2,331
  2,433
  2,542
  2,656
  2,777
  2,905
  3,039
  3,181
  3,330
  3,488
  3,654
  3,829
  4,013
  4,207
  4,410
  4,625
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.364
  3.210
  3.230
  3.240
  3.260
  3.280
  3.300
  3.320
  3.340
  3.360
  3.390
  3.410
  3.430
  3.450
  3.470
  3.480
  3.500
  3.520
  3.540
  3.560
  3.570
  3.590
  3.600
  3.620
  3.630
  3.640
  3.660
  3.670
  3.680
  3.690
  3.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.146
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -114
  -211
  -216
  -221
  -226
  -231
  -235
  -239
  -243
  -246
  -249
  -248
  -251
  -253
  -254
  -255
  -256
  -256
  -256
  -255
  -254
  -253
  -250
  -247
  -244
  -239
  -234
  -229
  -222
  -214
  -206
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  109
  111
  114
  117
  121
  124
  129
  133
  138
  143
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  195
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  339
Funds from operations, $m
  129
  -102
  -105
  -107
  -109
  -110
  -111
  -111
  -110
  -108
  -106
  -103
  -100
  -96
  -90
  -85
  -78
  -70
  -62
  -52
  -42
  -30
  -17
  -3
  12
  28
  46
  65
  86
  109
  133
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  -102
  -106
  -108
  -110
  -112
  -112
  -112
  -112
  -110
  -108
  -106
  -102
  -98
  -93
  -87
  -81
  -73
  -65
  -55
  -45
  -34
  -21
  -8
  7
  24
  41
  60
  81
  103
  127
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -177
  -186
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -296
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -396
  -416
  -436
  -457
  -480
Free cash flow, $m
  111
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -252
  -260
  -267
  -274
  -281
  -288
  -294
  -300
  -306
  -311
  -317
  -322
  -326
  -331
  -335
  -339
  -342
  -345
  -348
  -350
  -352
  -354
  -355
  -355
  -355
  -355
  -353
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  21
  26
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  171
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -20
  216
  223
  229
  235
  241
  246
  251
  255
  260
  264
  264
  267
  270
  273
  275
  277
  278
  279
  280
  280
  280
  279
  278
  276
  273
  270
  266
  261
  256
  250
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -89
  237
  249
  259
  269
  278
  287
  296
  303
  312
  320
  324
  331
  338
  345
  352
  358
  364
  370
  376
  382
  387
  392
  397
  402
  405
  409
  413
  415
  418
  421
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  11
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  149
  -216
  -223
  -229
  -235
  -241
  -246
  -251
  -255
  -260
  -264
  -264
  -267
  -270
  -273
  -275
  -277
  -278
  -279
  -280
  -280
  -280
  -279
  -278
  -276
  -273
  -270
  -266
  -261
  -256
  -250
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -206
  -209
  -214
  -218
  -222
  -226
  -230
  -233
  -236
  -238
  -240
  -242
  -243
  -244
  -245
  -245
  -245
  -244
  -242
  -240
  -238
  -235
  -231
  -226
  -221
  -215
  -208
  -201
  -192
  -183
Discount rate, %
 
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -186
  -168
  -152
  -136
  -120
  -104
  -89
  -75
  -62
  -51
  -40
  -32
  -24
  -18
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  56.7
  32.0
  18.0
  10.2
  5.7
  3.2
  1.8
  1.1
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Atlantic Power Corporation owns and operates a fleet of power generation assets in the United States and Canada. As of December 31, 2015, its power generation projects in operation had an aggregate gross electric generation capacity of approximately 2,138 megawatts consisting of interests in 23 operational power generation projects across 9 states in the United States and 2 provinces in Canada. The company sells its electricity to utilities and other commercial customers. Atlantic Power Corporation was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Dedham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlantic Power (AT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.5
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -31.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 297.2%
Total Debt to Equity 336.4%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Total Capital -8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Return On Equity -31.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 14%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin -32.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -32.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Net Profit Margin -28.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Effective Tax Rate 11.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Payout Ratio -7.9%

AT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $399 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlantic Power. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Atlantic Power. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for AT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlantic Power, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlantic Power.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $405 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for Atlantic Power.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlantic Power. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AT are equal to 258.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlantic Power operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AT is equal to 10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $286 million for Atlantic Power - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.221 million for Atlantic Power is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlantic Power at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Atlantic Power reports 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Strong Value Utility Stocks To Buy Now   [Jun-27-17 04:02PM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 16th   [Jun-16-17 11:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 12th   [Jun-12-17 10:33AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 6th   [Jun-06-17 10:54AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Atlantic Power Corp. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Day by Day: How the Crisis at the White House Deepened   [May-16-17 11:50AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Atlantic Power Corp. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 1Q loss   [May-05-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CFO Buys Highlights   [Mar-16-17 05:03PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 4Q loss   [Mar-02-17 05:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Atlantic Power Corp (AT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-09-16 01:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Atlantic Power Corp (AT): Mangrove Partners Raises Stake to 6.4%   [Aug-22-16 11:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ The Best Monthly Dividend Stocks   [May-12-16 12:53AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of AT Financial statements of AT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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