Intrinsic value of Atlantic Power - AT

Previous Close

$2.00

  Intrinsic Value

$0.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$2.00

 
Intrinsic value

$0.53

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.00
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  399
  431
  463
  497
  533
  569
  608
  647
  689
  732
  777
  823
  872
  923
  976
  1,031
  1,089
  1,149
  1,212
  1,278
  1,347
  1,419
  1,494
  1,573
  1,656
  1,743
  1,833
  1,928
  2,028
  2,133
  2,242
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  143
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  227
  241
  255
  267
  283
  299
  316
  334
  353
  372
  393
  414
  436
  460
  484
  510
  536
  565
  594
  625
  657
  691
  726
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  415
  426
  436
  447
  458
  470
  481
  493
  506
  518
  531
  545
  558
  572
  587
  601
  616
  632
  647
  664
  680
  697
  715
  733
  751
  770
  789
  809
  829
  850
Total operating expenses, $m
  528
  558
  580
  601
  623
  646
  670
  694
  720
  747
  773
  798
  828
  857
  888
  921
  954
  988
  1,025
  1,061
  1,100
  1,140
  1,181
  1,225
  1,269
  1,316
  1,364
  1,414
  1,466
  1,520
  1,576
Operating income, $m
  -129
  -128
  -116
  -104
  -91
  -77
  -62
  -47
  -31
  -15
  3
  25
  45
  66
  87
  110
  135
  160
  188
  216
  247
  279
  313
  349
  387
  427
  470
  515
  562
  613
  666
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -10
  10
  31
  54
  77
  102
  127
  154
  182
  212
  243
  275
  309
  345
  383
  422
  464
  508
  554
  603
  654
  708
  764
  824
  888
  954
  1,024
  1,098
  1,176
  1,259
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  64
  70
  77
  83
  90
  98
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
  297
  313
  331
  349
  367
  387
  408
Earnings before tax, $m
  -129
  -192
  -186
  -180
  -174
  -167
  -160
  -153
  -145
  -136
  -127
  -114
  -103
  -92
  -81
  -68
  -55
  -40
  -25
  -9
  8
  27
  47
  68
  90
  114
  139
  166
  195
  226
  258
Tax expense, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  7
  13
  18
  24
  31
  38
  45
  53
  61
  70
Net income, $m
  -114
  -192
  -186
  -180
  -174
  -167
  -160
  -153
  -145
  -136
  -127
  -114
  -103
  -92
  -81
  -68
  -55
  -40
  -25
  -9
  6
  20
  34
  49
  66
  83
  102
  121
  142
  165
  189

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,457
  1,479
  1,592
  1,709
  1,831
  1,957
  2,088
  2,225
  2,367
  2,515
  2,669
  2,829
  2,997
  3,171
  3,353
  3,543
  3,741
  3,948
  4,165
  4,391
  4,628
  4,876
  5,135
  5,406
  5,690
  5,988
  6,300
  6,627
  6,969
  7,328
  7,705
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,371
  1,479
  1,592
  1,709
  1,831
  1,957
  2,088
  2,225
  2,367
  2,515
  2,669
  2,829
  2,997
  3,171
  3,353
  3,543
  3,741
  3,948
  4,165
  4,391
  4,628
  4,876
  5,135
  5,406
  5,690
  5,988
  6,300
  6,627
  6,969
  7,328
  7,705
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
  0.291
Average production assets, $m
  1,033
  1,115
  1,199
  1,288
  1,379
  1,474
  1,573
  1,676
  1,783
  1,895
  2,011
  2,132
  2,258
  2,389
  2,526
  2,669
  2,819
  2,975
  3,138
  3,308
  3,487
  3,673
  3,869
  4,073
  4,287
  4,511
  4,746
  4,993
  5,251
  5,521
  5,805
Working capital, $m
  14
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
Total debt, $m
  962
  961
  1,050
  1,143
  1,239
  1,339
  1,443
  1,551
  1,663
  1,780
  1,902
  2,029
  2,161
  2,299
  2,443
  2,593
  2,750
  2,914
  3,085
  3,264
  3,452
  3,648
  3,853
  4,067
  4,292
  4,528
  4,774
  5,033
  5,304
  5,588
  5,886
Total liabilities, $m
  1,171
  1,170
  1,259
  1,352
  1,448
  1,548
  1,652
  1,760
  1,872
  1,989
  2,111
  2,238
  2,370
  2,508
  2,652
  2,802
  2,959
  3,123
  3,294
  3,473
  3,661
  3,857
  4,062
  4,276
  4,501
  4,737
  4,983
  5,242
  5,513
  5,797
  6,095
Total equity, $m
  286
  309
  333
  357
  383
  409
  436
  465
  495
  526
  558
  591
  626
  663
  701
  740
  782
  825
  870
  918
  967
  1,019
  1,073
  1,130
  1,189
  1,252
  1,317
  1,385
  1,457
  1,532
  1,610
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,457
  1,479
  1,592
  1,709
  1,831
  1,957
  2,088
  2,225
  2,367
  2,515
  2,669
  2,829
  2,996
  3,171
  3,353
  3,542
  3,741
  3,948
  4,164
  4,391
  4,628
  4,876
  5,135
  5,406
  5,690
  5,989
  6,300
  6,627
  6,970
  7,329
  7,705
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.364
  3.110
  3.160
  3.200
  3.240
  3.270
  3.310
  3.340
  3.360
  3.390
  3.410
  3.430
  3.450
  3.470
  3.490
  3.500
  3.520
  3.530
  3.540
  3.560
  3.570
  3.580
  3.590
  3.600
  3.610
  3.620
  3.630
  3.630
  3.640
  3.650
  3.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.146
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209
  0.209

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -114
  -192
  -186
  -180
  -174
  -167
  -160
  -153
  -145
  -136
  -127
  -114
  -103
  -92
  -81
  -68
  -55
  -40
  -25
  -9
  6
  20
  34
  49
  66
  83
  102
  121
  142
  165
  189
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  197
  209
  218
  230
  244
  258
  272
  288
  304
  320
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  437
  460
  484
  509
  536
  563
  592
Funds from operations, $m
  129
  -74
  -60
  -45
  -30
  -13
  4
  22
  41
  61
  82
  104
  127
  152
  177
  204
  233
  263
  295
  329
  362
  394
  429
  465
  503
  543
  586
  631
  678
  728
  781
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  -77
  -63
  -49
  -33
  -17
  0
  18
  37
  57
  77
  99
  122
  146
  172
  199
  227
  257
  289
  322
  355
  387
  421
  457
  495
  535
  577
  621
  668
  718
  770
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -105
  -114
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -150
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -375
  -395
  -416
  -437
  -460
  -484
  -509
  -536
  -563
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -187
  -199
  -210
  -223
  -236
  -249
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -326
  -344
  -361
  -381
  -401
  -421
  -444
  -467
  -491
  -516
  -543
  -570
  -599
  -630
  -661
  -695
  -730
  -767
  -807
  -847
Free cash flow, $m
  111
  -264
  -262
  -259
  -256
  -253
  -249
  -245
  -241
  -237
  -232
  -227
  -221
  -215
  -209
  -202
  -195
  -186
  -178
  -169
  -161
  -155
  -149
  -142
  -135
  -127
  -118
  -109
  -99
  -89
  -77
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -54
  85
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -20
  215
  210
  205
  199
  194
  188
  181
  174
  167
  159
  147
  138
  129
  119
  108
  96
  84
  70
  56
  43
  32
  20
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -89
  300
  299
  298
  295
  294
  292
  289
  286
  284
  281
  274
  270
  267
  263
  258
  253
  248
  241
  235
  230
  228
  225
  222
  225
  235
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  90
  109
  128
  149
  172
  195
  221
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  149
  -215
  -210
  -205
  -199
  -194
  -188
  -181
  -174
  -167
  -159
  -147
  -138
  -129
  -119
  -108
  -96
  -84
  -70
  -56
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -179
  -173
  -167
  -160
  -153
  -145
  -137
  -129
  -120
  -110
  -100
  -89
  -77
  -65
  -52
  -38
  -23
  -7
  10
  20
  21
  22
  23
  31
  46
  63
  81
  100
  120
  142
Discount rate, %
 
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -162
  -139
  -119
  -100
  -83
  -67
  -53
  -42
  -32
  -23
  -17
  -12
  -8
  -5
  -3
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  52.3
  28.7
  16.4
  9.8
  6.1
  3.9
  2.6
  1.8
  1.3
  0.9
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2

Atlantic Power Corporation (Atlantic Power) owns and operates a fleet of power generation assets in the United States and Canada. The Company's power generation projects sell electricity to utilities and other commercial customers. Atlantic Power's segments include East U.S., West U.S. and Canada. The Company's East U.S. segment comprises natural gas, biomass, coal and hydro projects. The Company's projects under the West U.S. segment include Naval Station, Naval Training Center, North Island, Oxnard, Manchief and Frederickson, which are focused on natural gas, and Koma Kulshan, which is focused on hydro. Under the Canada segment, the Company's projects located in British Columbia include Mamquam, Mamquam and Williams Lake. Its Calstock and Tunis projects are located in Ontario. The Company's portfolio consisted of interests in 19 operational power generation projects across nine states in the United States and two provinces in Canada, as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Atlantic Power (AT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -31.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 297.2%
Total Debt to Equity 336.4%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Total Capital -8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.2%
Return On Equity -31.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -22%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 14%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin -32.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -32.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.5%
Net Profit Margin -28.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Effective Tax Rate 11.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Payout Ratio -7.9%

AT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $399 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Atlantic Power. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Atlantic Power. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for AT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Atlantic Power, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Atlantic Power.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $405 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for Atlantic Power.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Atlantic Power. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AT are equal to 258.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Atlantic Power operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AT is equal to 10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $286 million for Atlantic Power - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 117.664 million for Atlantic Power is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Atlantic Power at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ IIROC Trade Resumption - Atlantic Power Corporation   [Jan-29-18 08:44AM  Newsfile]
▶ IIROC Trade Halt - Atlantic Power Corporation   [Jan-22-18 04:25PM  Newsfile]
▶ Atlantic Power Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-10-17 06:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 07:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Strong Value Utility Stocks To Buy Now   [Jun-27-17 04:02PM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 16th   [Jun-16-17 11:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 12th   [Jun-12-17 10:33AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for June 6th   [Jun-06-17 10:54AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Atlantic Power Corp. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Day by Day: How the Crisis at the White House Deepened   [May-16-17 11:50AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Atlantic Power Corp. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Atlantic Power reports 1Q loss   [May-05-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CFO Buys Highlights   [Mar-16-17 05:03PM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of AT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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