Intrinsic value of A10 Networks - ATEN

Previous Close

$6.28

  Intrinsic Value

$7.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+27%

  Value-price divergence*

+4851%

Previous close

$6.28

 
Intrinsic value

$7.97

 
Up/down potential

+27%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+4851%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.58
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
Revenue, $m
  230
  256
  282
  310
  340
  370
  402
  435
  470
  506
  543
  582
  622
  664
  707
  752
  799
  848
  899
  952
  1,008
  1,066
  1,126
  1,189
  1,255
  1,324
  1,396
  1,471
  1,550
  1,633
  1,719
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  99
  109
  120
  131
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  223
  238
  254
  271
  288
  307
  325
  345
  365
  387
  409
  432
  456
  481
  508
  535
  564
  595
  626
  659
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  319
  327
  336
  344
Total operating expenses, $m
  249
  267
  281
  297
  312
  329
  345
  363
  381
  400
  419
  438
  459
  480
  503
  526
  550
  575
  601
  627
  656
  684
  714
  745
  778
  812
  847
  883
  922
  962
  1,003
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -11
  1
  14
  28
  42
  57
  73
  89
  106
  124
  143
  163
  183
  204
  226
  249
  273
  299
  325
  353
  382
  412
  444
  477
  512
  549
  588
  628
  671
  716
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  -10
  3
  16
  30
  44
  59
  75
  92
  109
  127
  145
  165
  185
  207
  229
  252
  277
  302
  329
  356
  386
  416
  448
  482
  517
  554
  593
  634
  677
  722
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  -20
  -11
  1
  13
  27
  40
  55
  70
  86
  102
  119
  138
  157
  176
  197
  218
  240
  263
  288
  313
  340
  368
  397
  428
  460
  494
  529
  567
  606
  647
  690
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  4
  7
  11
  15
  19
  23
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  186
Net income, $m
  -21
  -11
  1
  10
  19
  29
  40
  51
  63
  75
  87
  101
  114
  129
  143
  159
  175
  192
  210
  229
  248
  268
  290
  312
  336
  360
  386
  414
  442
  472
  504

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  221
  150
  166
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  276
  297
  319
  341
  365
  389
  415
  441
  469
  498
  528
  559
  592
  625
  661
  698
  737
  777
  819
  863
  910
  958
  1,009
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  107
  150
  166
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  276
  297
  319
  341
  365
  389
  415
  441
  469
  498
  528
  559
  592
  625
  661
  698
  737
  777
  819
  863
  910
  958
  1,009
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.150
  1.707
  1.699
  1.703
  1.709
  1.705
  1.703
  1.706
  1.703
  1.704
  1.702
  1.707
  1.704
  1.707
  1.704
  1.705
  1.704
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
  1.706
  1.703
  1.703
  1.703
  1.704
  1.705
  1.705
  1.703
  1.705
  1.704
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
Working capital, $m
  98
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  14
  29
  44
  61
  77
  95
  113
  132
  152
  172
  193
  215
  238
  262
  287
  313
  340
  368
  397
  428
  460
  493
  528
  564
  602
  642
  684
  727
  773
Total liabilities, $m
  135
  135
  149
  164
  179
  196
  212
  230
  248
  267
  287
  307
  328
  350
  373
  397
  422
  448
  475
  503
  532
  563
  595
  628
  663
  699
  737
  777
  819
  862
  908
Total equity, $m
  86
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  221
  150
  166
  182
  199
  218
  236
  256
  276
  297
  319
  341
  364
  389
  414
  441
  469
  498
  528
  559
  591
  626
  661
  698
  737
  777
  819
  863
  910
  958
  1,009
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.850
  1.590
  2.230
  2.790
  3.280
  3.720
  4.100
  4.450
  4.760
  5.040
  5.300
  5.530
  5.750
  5.940
  6.120
  6.290
  6.440
  6.580
  6.720
  6.840
  6.960
  7.070
  7.170
  7.260
  7.350
  7.440
  7.520
  7.590
  7.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.262
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -21
  -11
  1
  10
  19
  29
  40
  51
  63
  75
  87
  101
  114
  129
  143
  159
  175
  192
  210
  229
  248
  268
  290
  312
  336
  360
  386
  414
  442
  472
  504
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  31
  -10
  3
  12
  21
  32
  42
  53
  65
  77
  90
  103
  117
  131
  146
  162
  178
  195
  213
  232
  252
  272
  294
  317
  340
  365
  392
  419
  448
  478
  510
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  -8
  4
  14
  24
  34
  45
  56
  67
  80
  92
  106
  119
  134
  149
  165
  182
  199
  217
  236
  256
  276
  298
  321
  345
  370
  397
  424
  453
  484
  516
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  -77
  -10
  2
  12
  21
  31
  42
  53
  65
  77
  89
  102
  116
  130
  145
  161
  177
  194
  212
  231
  250
  271
  292
  315
  338
  363
  389
  416
  445
  475
  507
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  26
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  26
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -69
  17
  18
  26
  37
  48
  59
  71
  83
  96
  109
  123
  137
  152
  168
  185
  202
  220
  239
  259
  279
  301
  324
  348
  373
  399
  427
  456
  487
  519
  553
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -26
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  76
  16
  25
  35
  46
  57
  69
  81
  93
  107
  120
  135
  150
  165
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  276
  298
  320
  344
  369
  395
  423
  452
  482
  514
  548
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  73
  15
  22
  29
  35
  41
  46
  50
  54
  56
  57
  57
  57
  56
  53
  51
  47
  43
  39
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  10
  7
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
  49.4
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A10 Networks, Inc. provides software and hardware solutions in the United States, Japan, and internationally. The company’s products are built on advanced core operating system platform. It offers application delivery controllers that provide advanced server load balancing; lightning application delivery service, a cloud-native software-as-a-service platform designed to boost the delivery and security of applications and micro services; and carrier grade networking address translation product that offer network address and protocol translation services for service provider networks. The company also provides threat protection systems for the protection of networks and server resources against massive distributed denial of service attacks; secure sockets layer insight that decrypts secure sockets layer-encrypted traffic and forwards it to a third-party security device, such as a firewall, for deep packet inspection; and convergent firewall, which consolidates multiple critical security capabilities in one package by consolidating multiple security and networking functions in a single appliance. Its solutions enable cloud providers, Web-scale companies, service providers, government organizations, and enterprises to secure and optimize the performance of their data center and cloud applications; and secure their users, applications, and infrastructure from Internet, Web, and network threats. The company delivers its solutions on optimized hardware appliances, bare metal software, virtual appliances, and cloud-native software. It serves telecommunications, technology, industrial, retail, financial, gaming, and education industries. The company markets its products through sales organizations, as well as distribution channel partners, including distributors, value added resellers, and system integrators. A10 Networks, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  A10 Networks (ATEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -20.3
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -10.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.5%
Return On Total Capital -25.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Return On Equity -25.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -50%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.9%
EBITDA Margin -5.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.8%
Operating Margin -8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Net Profit Margin -9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.2%
Effective Tax Rate -5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $230 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by A10 Networks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of A10 Networks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of A10 Networks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of A10 Networks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 38.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $164 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for A10 Networks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for A10 Networks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATEN are equal to 3.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in A10 Networks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATEN is equal to -7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $86 million for A10 Networks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 67.001 million for A10 Networks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of A10 Networks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why A10 Networks Fell 16% Last Month   [Aug-10-17 10:50AM  Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Networks to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conference   [Jul-31-17 04:03PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why A10 Networks Shares Soared Today   [Jul-28-17 12:45PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Networks reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 19th   [Jul-19-17 09:19AM  Zacks]
▶ Why A10 Networks Shares Got Crushed Today   [12:24PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [08:35AM  Briefing.com]
▶ After-hours buzz: CYBR, MYL & more   [Jul-13-17 05:56PM  CNBC]
▶ ETFs with exposure to A10 Networks, Inc. : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 12:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to A10 Networks, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ A10 Networks Names New Chief Financial Officer   [May-19-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to A10 Networks, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why A10 Networks Stock Plunged Today   [12:47PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Networks reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why A10 Networks Popped 19% in February   [Mar-14-17 08:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is Solaredge Technologies Inc (SEDG) a Good Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:06PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On A10 Networks Inc (ATEN)   [Dec-04-16 06:36PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why A10 Networks Shares Got Demolished Today   [Oct-28-16 12:28PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ A10 Networks Joins the Cisco Solution Partner Program   [Aug-29-16 08:00AM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of ATEN Financial statements of ATEN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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