Intrinsic value of Athersys - ATHX

Previous Close

$1.67

  Intrinsic Value

$0.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$1.67

 
Intrinsic value

$0.02

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATHX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.67
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
Total operating expenses, $m
  32
  34
  34
  36
  36
  37
  39
  39
  41
  42
  42
  44
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
Operating income, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  19
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.250
  4.250
  4.500
  4.500
  4.750
  3.800
  4.000
  4.200
  4.200
  4.400
  4.600
  4.000
  4.167
  4.333
  4.500
  4.000
  4.143
  4.429
  4.000
  4.125
  4.375
  4.111
  4.222
  4.444
  4.200
  4.400
  4.182
  4.364
  4.250
  4.077
  4.308
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Working capital, $m
  9
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Total debt, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
Total liabilities, $m
  8
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Total equity, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  19
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -10.610
  -10.170
  -9.690
  -9.180
  -8.640
  -8.090
  -7.530
  -6.960
  -6.390
  -5.820
  -5.250
  -4.700
  -4.150
  -3.620
  -3.100
  -2.590
  -2.090
  -1.620
  -1.160
  -0.710
  -0.280
  0.140
  0.530
  0.920
  1.280
  1.640
  1.970
  2.300
  2.610
  2.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.000
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  21
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -21
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -25
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  9.8
  1.9
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Athersys, Inc. is an international biotechnology company that is focused primarily in the field of regenerative medicine. The Company's MultiStem cell therapy, an allogeneic stem cell product, is its lead platform product and is in later-stage clinical development. Its clinical development programs are focused on treating neurological conditions, cardiovascular disease, inflammatory and immune disorders, certain pulmonary conditions and other conditions where the standard of care is limited or inadequate for many patients. In the neurological area, the Company evaluated in a completed Phase II trial, the potential for MultiStem treatment of patients with a history of neurological damage from an ischemic stroke. The Company initiated a Phase II clinical study in the United States for the administration of MultiStem cell therapy to patients with a history of an acute myocardial infarction, or AMI.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Athersys (ATHX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.6
Price to Sales 8.5
Price to Book 13.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -13.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 41.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -68.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -65.8%
Return On Total Capital -96.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -94%
Return On Equity -96.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -94%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -88.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -440.5%
Operating Margin -88.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -560%
Pre-Tax Margin -88.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -440.5%
Net Profit Margin -88.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -440.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATHX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATHX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $17 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Athersys. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Athersys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATHX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATHX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Athersys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Athersys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATHX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $23 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATHX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Athersys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Athersys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATHX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATHX are equal to 8.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Athersys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATHX is equal to -35.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $11 million for Athersys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.91 million for Athersys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Athersys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Athersys Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-08-17 04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Athersys, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [01:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Athersys to Host Third Quarter Financial Results Call   [Oct-09-17 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Athersys Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-09-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Athersys to Host Second Quarter Financial Results Call   [Jul-10-17 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Athersys, Inc. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 02:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Athersys Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-09-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Athersys to Host First Quarter Financial Results Call   [Apr-10-17 11:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Athersys, Inc. : March 27, 2017   [Mar-27-17 03:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Athersys to Host Year-End 2016 Financial Results Call   [Feb-14-17 09:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Athersys, Inc. (ATHX) Down, Maybe An Opportunity?   [Jan-31-17 07:10AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Athersys Launches $20M Public Stock Offering   [Jan-30-17 12:10PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Athersys Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock   [Jan-26-17 04:28PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Four Biotech Picks for Cures Law   [04:20PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ How Iradimed Corp (IRMD) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-15-16 06:13PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Athersys 3Q Loss $6M or 7 Cents a Share (ATHX)   [Nov-10-16 09:30AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Athersys Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Athersys to Host Third Quarter Financial Results Call   [Oct-11-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Athersyss Therapy Prospect Boosted by FDA (ATHX)   [Sep-29-16 05:19PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Athersys to Start Stroke Treatment Trials (ATHX)   [Sep-12-16 10:09AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Athersys Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of ATHX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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