Intrinsic value of Astronics - ATRO

Previous Close

$38.25

  Intrinsic Value

$17.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-54%

Previous close

$38.25

 
Intrinsic value

$17.55

 
Up/down potential

-54%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.53
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  633
  636
  651
  668
  687
  707
  730
  755
  782
  811
  842
  876
  911
  949
  989
  1,032
  1,077
  1,125
  1,175
  1,229
  1,285
  1,345
  1,408
  1,474
  1,544
  1,617
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
  2,047
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  562
  574
  588
  604
  622
  641
  662
  684
  709
  735
  735
  765
  796
  830
  866
  904
  944
  987
  1,031
  1,079
  1,129
  1,182
  1,237
  1,296
  1,357
  1,422
  1,491
  1,563
  1,638
  1,718
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  560
  562
  574
  588
  604
  622
  641
  662
  684
  709
  735
  735
  765
  796
  830
  866
  904
  944
  987
  1,031
  1,079
  1,129
  1,182
  1,237
  1,296
  1,357
  1,422
  1,491
  1,563
  1,638
  1,718
Operating income, $m
  73
  74
  77
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  141
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  314
  329
EBITDA, $m
  99
  140
  143
  147
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  185
  193
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  247
  259
  270
  283
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  429
  450
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Earnings before tax, $m
  69
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  171
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
Tax expense, $m
  21
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Net income, $m
  48
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  604
  750
  767
  787
  809
  833
  860
  889
  921
  955
  992
  1,031
  1,073
  1,118
  1,165
  1,215
  1,269
  1,325
  1,385
  1,448
  1,514
  1,584
  1,658
  1,736
  1,818
  1,905
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,299
  2,411
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  586
  750
  767
  787
  809
  833
  860
  889
  921
  955
  992
  1,031
  1,073
  1,118
  1,165
  1,215
  1,269
  1,325
  1,385
  1,448
  1,514
  1,584
  1,658
  1,736
  1,818
  1,905
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,299
  2,411
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.080
  0.848
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.850
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.848
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
Average production assets, $m
  227
  377
  386
  396
  407
  420
  433
  448
  464
  481
  499
  519
  540
  563
  587
  612
  639
  667
  697
  729
  762
  798
  835
  874
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,158
  1,214
Working capital, $m
  168
  111
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  152
  159
  165
  172
  180
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
Total debt, $m
  148
  280
  289
  300
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  393
  413
  435
  458
  483
  509
  537
  566
  597
  630
  665
  702
  740
  781
  824
  870
  917
  968
  1,021
  1,076
  1,135
  1,197
Total liabilities, $m
  267
  414
  423
  434
  446
  460
  475
  491
  508
  527
  548
  569
  592
  617
  643
  671
  700
  731
  764
  799
  836
  874
  915
  958
  1,004
  1,052
  1,102
  1,155
  1,211
  1,269
  1,331
Total equity, $m
  337
  336
  344
  352
  362
  373
  385
  398
  413
  428
  444
  462
  481
  501
  522
  544
  568
  594
  620
  648
  678
  710
  743
  778
  815
  853
  894
  937
  982
  1,030
  1,080
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  604
  750
  767
  786
  808
  833
  860
  889
  921
  955
  992
  1,031
  1,073
  1,118
  1,165
  1,215
  1,268
  1,325
  1,384
  1,447
  1,514
  1,584
  1,658
  1,736
  1,819
  1,905
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,299
  2,411
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.439
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.544
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
Funds from operations, $m
  24
  109
  112
  114
  117
  120
  124
  127
  132
  136
  141
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  230
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  302
  317
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  107
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  131
  135
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  261
  274
  287
  300
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -172
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  63
  63
  63
  63
  63
  64
  65
  66
  67
  69
  63
  65
  66
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -22
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  181
  190
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  65
  64
  65
  65
  66
  67
  68
  69
  71
  73
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  60
  55
  50
  46
  42
  37
  33
  30
  26
  23
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
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Astronics Corporation is a supplier of products to the aerospace, defense, electronics and semiconductor industries. The Company's products and services include electrical power generation, distribution and motion systems, lighting and safety systems, avionics products, aircraft structures, systems certification and automated test systems. The Company operates through two segments: Aerospace and Test Systems. The Aerospace segment designs and manufactures products for the global aerospace industry. Its product lines include lighting and safety systems, electrical power generation, distribution and motions systems, aircraft structures, avionics products, systems certification and other products. The Test Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures and maintains automated test systems that support the semiconductor, aerospace, communications and weapons test systems, as well as training and simulation devices for both commercial and military applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Astronics (ATRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.2
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -31.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 43%
Total Debt to Equity 43.9%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Return On Total Capital 10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 15.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
EBITDA Margin 15.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Effective Tax Rate 30.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $624 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Astronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Astronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for ATRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Astronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Astronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Astronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Astronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATRO stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATRO are equal to 59.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Astronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATRO is equal to 17.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $330 million for Astronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28 million for Astronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Astronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Astronics Test Systems Ships 2,000th Semiconductor Tester   [Jul-10-18 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Making flights more tech-friendly   [Jun-20-18 09:21AM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ Biggest Buffalo public companies continue to grow   [Jun-03-18 08:10AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for May 14th   [May-14-18 07:12AM  Zacks]
▶ Push to add women to WNY boards gains momentum   [May-11-18 02:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 18th   [Apr-18-18 06:27AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 29th   [Mar-29-18 07:30AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 12:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : December 7, 2017   [Dec-07-17 12:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : November 2, 2017   [Nov-02-17 11:47AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : October 20, 2017   [Oct-20-17 10:06AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:17AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Astronics Launches Next-Gen Radio Test Solution   [Sep-08-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : September 5, 2017   [Sep-05-17 07:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 21st   [Aug-21-17 10:06AM  Zacks]
▶ Astronics posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 09:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Astronics posts 2Q profit   [09:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : July 6, 2017   [Jul-06-17 01:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:37AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Astronics Corp. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 12:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Astronics posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 09:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Astronics posts 1Q profit   [06:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Astronics Corporation Acquires Custom Controls Concepts   [Apr-03-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Astronics posts 4Q profit   [07:35AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of ATRO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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