Intrinsic value of Attunity - ATTU

Previous Close

$6.61

  Intrinsic Value

$1.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

  Value-price divergence*

-70%

Previous close

$6.61

 
Intrinsic value

$1.92

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-70%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ATTU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.50
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  92
  100
  109
  119
  128
  138
  149
  160
  171
  183
  196
  208
  222
  235
  250
  265
  281
  297
  314
  332
  350
  370
  390
  411
  433
  457
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  71
  78
  86
  95
  103
  112
  122
  131
  141
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  208
  221
  235
  250
  265
  280
  296
  314
  331
  350
  369
  389
  411
  433
  456
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  66
  64
  71
  78
  86
  95
  103
  112
  122
  131
  141
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  208
  221
  235
  250
  265
  280
  296
  314
  331
  350
  369
  389
  411
  433
  456
Operating income, $m
  -11
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
EBITDA, $m
  -9
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -11
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  58
  55
  62
  68
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  116
  126
  135
  145
  156
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  240
  255
  269
  285
  301
  318
  335
  354
  373
  393
  414
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  49
  55
  62
  68
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  116
  126
  135
  145
  156
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  240
  255
  269
  285
  301
  318
  335
  354
  373
  393
  414
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.102
  1.109
  1.097
  1.103
  1.092
  1.108
  1.099
  1.101
  1.102
  1.103
  1.095
  1.104
  1.103
  1.096
  1.102
  1.107
  1.101
  1.104
  1.098
  1.101
  1.104
  1.102
  1.104
  1.102
  1.103
  1.101
  1.104
  1.102
  1.102
  1.102
  1.104
Average production assets, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  17
  21
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  65
  71
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  186
Total liabilities, $m
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  46
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  211
Total equity, $m
  33
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
  193
  203
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  58
  55
  61
  69
  76
  83
  91
  100
  108
  116
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  214
  227
  241
  255
  269
  285
  302
  318
  335
  353
  373
  394
  414
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.120
  0.210
  0.300
  0.370
  0.430
  0.480
  0.530
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -11
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  12
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  12
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.0
  86.9
  81.6
  76.9
  72.7
  69.0
  65.6
  62.5
  59.7
  57.1
  55.5
  54.0
  52.5
  51.1
  49.8
  48.5
  47.3
  46.1
  44.9
  43.8
  42.7
  41.7
  40.6
  39.7
  38.7
  37.8
  36.8
  35.9
  35.1
  34.2

Attunity Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops, markets, and sells big data management software solutions worldwide. The company offers Attunity Replicate, a data replication software for distributing, sharing, and ensuring the availability of data for meeting business operations and business intelligence needs; Attunity Gold Client, a replication software for data management within SAP environments; and Attunity Visibility, a software for big data environments. It also provides Attunity Managed File Transfer, a file transfer management solution to secure and automate business-to-business information exchanges over Internet connections; Attunity RepliWeb for ERA, a heterogeneous file system and storage replication solution optimized for wide area network infrastructures, as well as an ARA and Web deployment solution for Windows, UNIX, and Linux applications, as well as Web infrastructures; and Attunity CloudBeam, a fully-managed data transfer software as a service-based platform to move data to, from, and between on-premises and cloud environments. In addition, it offers Attunity Compose, a data warehouse automation software to design, generate, and populate enterprise data warehouses and data marts; change data capture and Attunity Connect software solutions; and hot-line support, training, and professional services. It sells its products through distributors, value-added resellers, and original equipment manufacturers partners to financial services, healthcare, insurance, energy, telecommunications, manufacturing, retail, pharmaceuticals, and supply chain industries, as well as government and public institutions. The company has strategic relationships with AWS; Google; Hortonworks, Inc.; HP Inc.; IBM; Microsoft; Oracle; SAP; and Teradata. The company was formerly known as ISG International Software Group Ltd. and changed its name to Attunity Ltd. in October 2000. Attunity Ltd. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kfar Saba, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Attunity (ATTU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -10.1
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -111.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -111.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -18.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Return On Total Capital -31%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.4%
Return On Equity -31%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.5%
EBITDA Margin -16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Operating Margin -22.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -20.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Net Profit Margin -20.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ATTU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ATTU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $54 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Attunity. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Attunity. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ATTU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ATTU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Attunity, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Attunity.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ATTU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 105.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ATTU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Attunity.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Attunity. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ATTU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ATTU are equal to 13%.

Life of production assets of 19 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Attunity operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ATTU is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $33 million for Attunity - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.651 million for Attunity is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Attunity at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Attunity Recognized Again by Gartner as a Challenger   [Aug-10-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Attunity reports 2Q loss   [Jul-28-17 01:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Attunity Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-27-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Should Attunity (ATTU) Be On Your Radar Now?   [May-04-17 08:39AM  Zacks]
▶ Attunity reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 07:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks Under $10 to Buy Now   [Apr-03-17 06:15PM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for March 1st   [Mar-01-17 09:08AM  Zacks]
▶ Attunity reports 4Q loss   [Feb-02-17 08:46AM  AP]
▶ Is Attunity Ltd (ATTU) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-15-16 05:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Attunity Announces 2016 Annual General Meeting   [Nov-21-16 07:23AM  PR Newswire]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Attunity Ltd./   [Aug-03-16 03:41PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Attunity reports 2Q loss   [07:28AM  AP]
▶ Attunity Adopts Shareholder Rights Plan   [Jun-08-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of ATTU Financial statements of ATTU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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