Intrinsic value of AngloGold Ashanti ADR - AU

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$10.50

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,085
  4,167
  4,263
  4,372
  4,495
  4,631
  4,781
  4,944
  5,120
  5,310
  5,514
  5,732
  5,964
  6,212
  6,475
  6,754
  7,050
  7,364
  7,695
  8,045
  8,415
  8,805
  9,216
  9,650
  10,107
  10,588
  11,094
  11,628
  12,189
  12,779
  13,400
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,817
  3,904
  4,005
  4,117
  4,242
  4,379
  4,528
  4,690
  4,864
  5,050
  5,250
  5,463
  5,690
  5,931
  6,187
  6,458
  6,745
  7,049
  7,369
  7,708
  8,065
  8,442
  8,839
  9,258
  9,698
  10,163
  10,651
  11,165
  11,706
  12,274
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,590
  3,817
  3,904
  4,005
  4,117
  4,242
  4,379
  4,528
  4,690
  4,864
  5,050
  5,250
  5,463
  5,690
  5,931
  6,187
  6,458
  6,745
  7,049
  7,369
  7,708
  8,065
  8,442
  8,839
  9,258
  9,698
  10,163
  10,651
  11,165
  11,706
  12,274
Operating income, $m
  495
  350
  358
  367
  378
  389
  402
  415
  430
  446
  463
  481
  501
  522
  544
  567
  592
  619
  646
  676
  707
  740
  774
  811
  849
  889
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,126
EBITDA, $m
  495
  566
  579
  594
  611
  629
  650
  672
  696
  722
  749
  779
  811
  844
  880
  918
  958
  1,001
  1,046
  1,093
  1,144
  1,197
  1,252
  1,311
  1,373
  1,439
  1,508
  1,580
  1,656
  1,737
  1,821
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  75
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  320
  340
  360
  381
  403
Earnings before tax, $m
  269
  275
  280
  286
  292
  299
  306
  314
  323
  332
  342
  353
  364
  376
  389
  402
  416
  432
  448
  465
  482
  501
  521
  542
  564
  587
  612
  637
  664
  693
  722
Tax expense, $m
  189
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  112
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
Net income, $m
  63
  201
  204
  208
  213
  218
  223
  229
  236
  242
  250
  257
  266
  274
  284
  294
  304
  315
  327
  339
  352
  366
  380
  396
  412
  429
  446
  465
  485
  506
  527

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  220
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,153
  7,074
  7,237
  7,423
  7,632
  7,863
  8,117
  8,393
  8,693
  9,015
  9,361
  9,731
  10,126
  10,547
  10,993
  11,468
  11,970
  12,502
  13,065
  13,659
  14,287
  14,949
  15,647
  16,383
  17,159
  17,976
  18,836
  19,741
  20,694
  21,696
  22,750
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,933
  7,074
  7,237
  7,423
  7,632
  7,863
  8,117
  8,393
  8,693
  9,015
  9,361
  9,731
  10,126
  10,547
  10,993
  11,468
  11,970
  12,502
  13,065
  13,659
  14,287
  14,949
  15,647
  16,383
  17,159
  17,976
  18,836
  19,741
  20,694
  21,696
  22,750
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
  0.589
Average production assets, $m
  4,112
  2,163
  2,212
  2,269
  2,333
  2,404
  2,481
  2,566
  2,657
  2,756
  2,862
  2,975
  3,095
  3,224
  3,361
  3,506
  3,659
  3,822
  3,994
  4,175
  4,367
  4,570
  4,783
  5,008
  5,245
  5,495
  5,758
  6,035
  6,326
  6,632
  6,955
Working capital, $m
  406
  225
  230
  236
  243
  250
  258
  267
  276
  287
  298
  310
  322
  335
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  434
  454
  475
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  724
Total debt, $m
  2,178
  2,232
  2,335
  2,454
  2,586
  2,733
  2,894
  3,070
  3,260
  3,465
  3,684
  3,919
  4,170
  4,437
  4,721
  5,022
  5,341
  5,679
  6,036
  6,414
  6,812
  7,233
  7,676
  8,143
  8,636
  9,155
  9,701
  10,276
  10,881
  11,517
  12,186
Total liabilities, $m
  4,438
  4,492
  4,595
  4,714
  4,846
  4,993
  5,154
  5,330
  5,520
  5,725
  5,944
  6,179
  6,430
  6,697
  6,981
  7,282
  7,601
  7,939
  8,296
  8,674
  9,072
  9,493
  9,936
  10,403
  10,896
  11,415
  11,961
  12,536
  13,141
  13,777
  14,446
Total equity, $m
  2,715
  2,582
  2,641
  2,709
  2,786
  2,870
  2,963
  3,064
  3,173
  3,290
  3,417
  3,552
  3,696
  3,849
  4,013
  4,186
  4,369
  4,563
  4,769
  4,986
  5,215
  5,456
  5,711
  5,980
  6,263
  6,561
  6,875
  7,206
  7,553
  7,919
  8,304
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,153
  7,074
  7,236
  7,423
  7,632
  7,863
  8,117
  8,394
  8,693
  9,015
  9,361
  9,731
  10,126
  10,546
  10,994
  11,468
  11,970
  12,502
  13,065
  13,660
  14,287
  14,949
  15,647
  16,383
  17,159
  17,976
  18,836
  19,742
  20,694
  21,696
  22,750
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.802
  0.860
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.030
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.360
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  201
  204
  208
  213
  218
  223
  229
  236
  242
  250
  257
  266
  274
  284
  294
  304
  315
  327
  339
  352
  366
  380
  396
  412
  429
  446
  465
  485
  506
  527
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  216
  221
  227
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  310
  322
  336
  351
  366
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  478
  501
  525
  550
  576
  603
  633
  663
  695
Funds from operations, $m
  1,223
  417
  426
  435
  446
  458
  471
  486
  501
  518
  536
  555
  575
  597
  620
  644
  670
  697
  726
  757
  789
  823
  859
  896
  936
  978
  1,022
  1,069
  1,117
  1,169
  1,223
Change in working capital, $m
  37
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  1,186
  -1,561
  420
  429
  440
  451
  463
  477
  492
  508
  525
  543
  563
  583
  606
  629
  654
  680
  708
  738
  769
  802
  836
  873
  912
  952
  995
  1,040
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -212
  -216
  -221
  -227
  -233
  -240
  -248
  -257
  -266
  -276
  -286
  -297
  -310
  -322
  -336
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -418
  -437
  -457
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -576
  -603
  -633
  -663
New CAPEX, $m
  -711
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -91
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -322
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -702
  -256
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -399
  -418
  -439
  -459
  -481
  -505
  -529
  -554
  -581
  -610
  -639
  -670
  -703
  -738
  -775
  -813
  -853
  -894
  -939
  -985
Free cash flow, $m
  484
  -1,817
  154
  151
  149
  147
  145
  144
  144
  143
  143
  144
  144
  145
  147
  148
  150
  152
  154
  157
  160
  163
  166
  170
  174
  178
  182
  187
  192
  198
  204
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -576
  88
  103
  118
  133
  147
  161
  176
  190
  205
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  357
  377
  399
  421
  443
  467
  493
  519
  546
  575
  605
  636
  669
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1,596
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -763
  1,684
  103
  118
  133
  147
  161
  176
  190
  205
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  357
  377
  399
  421
  443
  467
  493
  519
  546
  575
  605
  636
  669
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -269
  -1,729
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  320
  334
  348
  363
  379
  395
  412
  430
  449
  469
  490
  511
  534
  558
  583
  609
  637
  666
  697
  729
  762
  797
  834
  873
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -285
  -53
  -59
  -68
  -76
  -84
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -330
  -348
  -366
  -385
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  186
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  198
  202
  205
  209
  214
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  251
  259
  267
  276
  285
  295
  306
  317
  329
  341
  355
  368
  383
  398
  415
  432
  450
  469
  488
Discount rate, %
 
  5.00
  5.25
  5.51
  5.79
  6.08
  6.38
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  179
  172
  164
  156
  148
  139
  130
  121
  112
  103
  94
  85
  76
  67
  59
  51
  43
  37
  30
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8
  71.8

AngloGold Ashanti Limited operates as a gold mining and exploration company. The company also produces silver, uranium oxide, copper, and sulphuric acid. Its portfolio includes 17 mines in South Africa, Continental Africa, Australasia, and the Americas. The company has a strategic partnership with Orinoco Gold Limited. AngloGold Ashanti Limited was founded in 1944 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AngloGold Ashanti ADR (AU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 68
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 79%
Total Debt to Equity 80.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Total Capital 1.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Return On Equity 2.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
EBITDA Margin 6.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Effective Tax Rate 70.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

AU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4085 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AngloGold Ashanti ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AngloGold Ashanti ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5%, whose default value for AU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AngloGold Ashanti ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AngloGold Ashanti ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AngloGold Ashanti ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AngloGold Ashanti ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AU are equal to 51.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AngloGold Ashanti ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AU is equal to 5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2715 million for AngloGold Ashanti ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 416.065 million for AngloGold Ashanti ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AngloGold Ashanti ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.


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Stock chart of AU Financial statements of AU Annual reports of AU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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