Intrinsic value of AeroVironment - AVAV

Previous Close

$74.94

  Intrinsic Value

$6.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$74.94

 
Intrinsic value

$6.50

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AVAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.38
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  265
  270
  277
  284
  292
  300
  310
  321
  332
  344
  358
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  478
  499
  522
  546
  571
  598
  626
  656
  687
  720
  754
  791
  829
  869
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  260
  266
  273
  281
  289
  299
  309
  320
  332
  344
  358
  373
  388
  405
  422
  440
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  576
  603
  631
  661
  693
  726
  761
  798
  837
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  252
  260
  266
  273
  281
  289
  299
  309
  320
  332
  344
  358
  373
  388
  405
  422
  440
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  576
  603
  631
  661
  693
  726
  761
  798
  837
Operating income, $m
  13
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
EBITDA, $m
  20
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Net income, $m
  12
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  200
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  433
  286
  293
  300
  309
  318
  329
  340
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  485
  506
  529
  553
  578
  605
  633
  663
  695
  728
  762
  799
  838
  878
  921
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  233
  286
  293
  300
  309
  318
  329
  340
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  485
  506
  529
  553
  578
  605
  633
  663
  695
  728
  762
  799
  838
  878
  921
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.137
  0.944
  0.945
  0.947
  0.945
  0.943
  0.942
  0.944
  0.943
  0.942
  0.945
  0.944
  0.944
  0.944
  0.944
  0.944
  0.942
  0.945
  0.943
  0.944
  0.945
  0.944
  0.945
  0.944
  0.944
  0.944
  0.945
  0.944
  0.944
  0.944
  0.944
Average production assets, $m
  19
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Working capital, $m
  306
  41
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  108
  115
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
Total equity, $m
  382
  235
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  279
  289
  299
  311
  323
  336
  350
  365
  381
  397
  415
  434
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  625
  655
  687
  720
  755
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  433
  287
  293
  300
  309
  318
  328
  340
  352
  365
  379
  394
  410
  427
  445
  465
  484
  506
  529
  553
  578
  605
  633
  663
  695
  728
  762
  799
  838
  878
  921
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.781
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  -47
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Change in working capital, $m
  -36
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  -48
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  10
  10
  11
  11
  13
  14
  14
  15
  17
  18
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -44
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  152
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  154
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  148
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.8
  99.6
  99.5
  99.3
  99.0
  98.8
  98.5
  98.2
  97.9
  97.5
  97.2
  96.8
  96.4
  96.0
  95.6
  95.2
  94.8
  94.4
  94.0
  93.5
  93.1
  92.6
  92.2

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, supports and operates a portfolio of products and services for government agencies, businesses and consumers. The Company operates through two segments: Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), which focuses primarily on the design, development, production, support and operation of UAS and tactical missile systems that provide situational awareness, multi-band communications, force protection and other mission effects, and Efficient Energy Systems (EES), which focuses primarily on the design, development, production, marketing, support and operation of electric energy systems. The Company supplies UAS, tactical missile systems and related services primarily to organizations within the United States Department of Defense (DoD). The Company also supplies charging systems and services for electric vehicles (EVs), and power cycling and test systems to commercial, consumer and government customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AeroVironment (AVAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 147.6
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -161
Price to Free Cash Flow -84.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 42.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Return On Total Capital 3.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

AVAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AVAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $265 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AeroVironment. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AeroVironment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AVAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AVAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AeroVironment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AeroVironment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AVAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AVAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for AeroVironment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AeroVironment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AVAV stock is equal to 1.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AVAV are equal to 6.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AeroVironment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AVAV is equal to 15%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $382 million for AeroVironment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23 million for AeroVironment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AeroVironment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
LMT Lockheed Marti 319.60 116.61  str.sell
BA Boeing 355.33 39.85  str.sell
TXT Textron 66.99 35.02  sell
HII Huntington Ing 227.39 240.95  hold
SPR Spirit AeroSys 90.10 57.14  sell
GD General Dynami 194.35 162.31  sell
NOC Northrop Grumm 324.16 347.14  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ 10 Small-Caps Leading the Market Rebound   [09:19AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ AeroVironment teaming with NASA on Mars drone   [Jul-06-18 03:39PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ After-hours buzz: SONC, AVAV, & more   [Jun-26-18 06:11PM  CNBC]
▶ AeroVironment: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Outlook For AeroVironment   [07:47AM  Benzinga]
▶ [$$] Drones Hit Turbulence   [May-19-18 12:01AM  Barrons.com]
▶ 3 Industrial Stocks I'd Buy Right Now   [Apr-17-18 08:33AM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Apr-11-18 04:59PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is AeroVironment Incs (NASDAQ:AVAV) Liquidity Good Enough?   [Mar-20-18 09:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why Kratos Defense & Security Stock Just Dropped 11%   [Mar-16-18 04:51PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Did AeroVironment Really Just Fall Back to Earth?   [Mar-06-18 06:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ AeroVironment reports 3Q loss   [04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ AeroVironment Q3 Earnings Preview   [07:54AM  Benzinga]
▶ 2 Best Drone Stocks to Buy   [Feb-28-18 09:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Who Owns Most Of AeroVironment Inc (NASDAQ:AVAV)?   [Feb-19-18 07:42PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 10 Drone Stats That Will Blow You Away   [Jan-19-18 08:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ A Fresh Twist on Electric Vehicle Charging   [Jan-12-18 09:19AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Solar Drones Take a Step Towards Commercial Flight   [Jan-11-18 07:49AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Shares of AeroVironment, Inc. Popped 23% in December   [Jan-10-18 02:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ These Stocks Could Double -- Again   [Jan-09-18 03:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Aerospace and defense ETFs take off   [Jan-05-18 10:31AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ 2 Smart Stocks for In-the-Know Investors   [08:17AM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of AVAV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.