Intrinsic value of AeroVironment - AVAV

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$31.38

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$31.38

 
Intrinsic value

$9.01

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AVAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.93
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  264
  269
  275
  283
  291
  299
  309
  319
  331
  343
  356
  370
  385
  401
  418
  437
  456
  476
  497
  520
  544
  569
  596
  624
  653
  684
  717
  751
  788
  826
  866
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  267
  273
  280
  288
  297
  306
  317
  328
  340
  353
  367
  382
  398
  415
  433
  452
  472
  493
  516
  539
  564
  591
  619
  648
  679
  711
  745
  781
  819
  859
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  254
  267
  273
  280
  288
  297
  306
  317
  328
  340
  353
  367
  382
  398
  415
  433
  452
  472
  493
  516
  539
  564
  591
  619
  648
  679
  711
  745
  781
  819
  859
Operating income, $m
  10
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
EBITDA, $m
  16
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Net income, $m
  9
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  411
  187
  191
  196
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  183
  187
  191
  196
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.443
  1.439
  1.440
  1.444
  1.448
  1.444
  1.444
  1.443
  1.445
  1.441
  1.441
  1.440
  1.442
  1.442
  1.441
  1.442
  1.443
  1.442
  1.441
  1.444
  1.443
  1.444
  1.443
  1.444
  1.442
  1.443
  1.443
  1.441
  1.443
  1.444
  1.443
Average production assets, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Working capital, $m
  298
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  112
Total liabilities, $m
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
Total equity, $m
  362
  137
  140
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  411
  187
  191
  195
  201
  208
  214
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  302
  316
  329
  344
  361
  377
  395
  413
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732
  0.732

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  -22
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  -5
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  -7
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  1
  3
  4
  4
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -19
  -6
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  220
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  99.2
  98.3
  97.2
  96.0
  94.7
  93.3
  91.9
  90.3
  88.8
  87.1
  85.5
  83.8
  82.1
  80.4
  78.7
  77.0
  75.3
  73.6
  71.9
  70.2
  68.6
  66.9
  65.3
  63.7
  62.2
  60.7
  59.1
  57.7
  56.2

AeroVironment Inc. designs, develops, produces, supports, and operates unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and efficient energy systems (EES) in the United States and internationally. The company offers small UAS products to deliver intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; and communications, such as real-time tactical reconnaissance, tracking, combat assessment, and geographic data to the small tactical unit or individual operator. Its small UAS wirelessly transmit critical live video and other information to a hand-held ground control unit enabling the operator to view and capture images; ground control systems allow the operator to control the aircrafts; and tactical missile systems designed to be reusable for flights under normal operating circumstances and can be recovered through an autonomous landing feature that enables a controlled descent to a designated location. The company also provides spare equipment, alternative payload modules, batteries, and chargers; repair, refurbishment and replacement, training, and customer support services to small UAS; turnkey mission services; and contract engineering services. In addition, it offers electric vehicle charging systems, services, and related solutions for plug-in passenger and fleet vehicles; PosiCharge industrial electric vehicle charging systems for electric material handling vehicles and airport ground support equipment; and power cycling and test systems for developers and manufacturers of electric vehicles, as well as battery packs, electric motors, and fuel cells. The company sells EES products directly through sales force; and through retailers, resellers, industrial battery and lift-truck dealers, and distributors and representatives. It serves the U.S. Department of Defense, including the U.S. Army, Marine Corps, Special Operations Command, and Air Force, as well as commercial, consumer, and government customers. AeroVironment Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Monrovia, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AeroVironment (AVAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 81.4
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 733
Price to Free Cash Flow -122.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
EBITDA Margin 5.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate -12.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

AVAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AVAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $264 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AeroVironment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of AeroVironment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AVAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AVAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AeroVironment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AeroVironment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AVAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AVAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for AeroVironment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AeroVironment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AVAV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AVAV are equal to 2.5%.

Life of production assets of 1.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AeroVironment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AVAV is equal to 26.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $362 million for AeroVironment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.395 million for AeroVironment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AeroVironment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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Stock chart of AVAV Financial statements of AVAV Annual reports of AVAV
Valuation of Stocks

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