Intrinsic value of Avianca Holdings ADR - AVH

Previous Close

$6.56

  Intrinsic Value

$0.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$6.56

 
Intrinsic value

$0.65

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AVH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,138
  4,221
  4,318
  4,429
  4,553
  4,691
  4,843
  5,008
  5,186
  5,379
  5,585
  5,806
  6,042
  6,292
  6,559
  6,842
  7,142
  7,459
  7,795
  8,150
  8,524
  8,919
  9,336
  9,775
  10,238
  10,725
  11,238
  11,779
  12,347
  12,945
  13,574
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,009
  4,100
  4,204
  4,322
  4,451
  4,594
  4,749
  4,917
  5,097
  5,291
  5,458
  5,679
  5,915
  6,166
  6,432
  6,714
  7,012
  7,327
  7,661
  8,013
  8,384
  8,776
  9,189
  9,624
  10,082
  10,564
  11,072
  11,606
  12,168
  12,760
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,880
  4,009
  4,100
  4,204
  4,322
  4,451
  4,594
  4,749
  4,917
  5,097
  5,291
  5,458
  5,679
  5,915
  6,166
  6,432
  6,714
  7,012
  7,327
  7,661
  8,013
  8,384
  8,776
  9,189
  9,624
  10,082
  10,564
  11,072
  11,606
  12,168
  12,760
Operating income, $m
  258
  212
  218
  224
  232
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  294
  348
  362
  377
  393
  410
  428
  447
  468
  489
  511
  535
  560
  586
  614
  643
  674
  706
  741
  776
  814
EBITDA, $m
  528
  767
  784
  805
  827
  852
  880
  910
  942
  977
  1,015
  1,055
  1,098
  1,143
  1,192
  1,243
  1,298
  1,355
  1,416
  1,481
  1,549
  1,620
  1,696
  1,776
  1,860
  1,949
  2,042
  2,140
  2,243
  2,352
  2,466
Interest expense (income), $m
  159
  177
  182
  188
  195
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  333
  351
  370
  391
  412
  435
  459
  485
  512
  540
  570
  601
  635
  669
  706
  745
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  35
  36
  36
  37
  37
  37
  37
  37
  37
  37
  78
  78
  78
  78
  78
  77
  77
  77
  76
  76
  76
  75
  74
  74
  73
  73
  72
  71
  70
  69
Tax expense, $m
  34
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  19
  19
  19
  19
Net income, $m
  17
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  57
  57
  57
  57
  57
  57
  56
  56
  56
  55
  55
  55
  54
  54
  53
  53
  52
  52
  51
  51

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  515
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,351
  6,474
  6,622
  6,793
  6,984
  7,195
  7,428
  7,681
  7,955
  8,250
  8,566
  8,905
  9,266
  9,651
  10,060
  10,494
  10,954
  11,441
  11,955
  12,499
  13,074
  13,680
  14,319
  14,992
  15,702
  16,450
  17,237
  18,065
  18,937
  19,854
  20,819
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,836
  6,474
  6,622
  6,793
  6,984
  7,195
  7,428
  7,681
  7,955
  8,250
  8,566
  8,905
  9,266
  9,651
  10,060
  10,494
  10,954
  11,441
  11,955
  12,499
  13,074
  13,680
  14,319
  14,992
  15,702
  16,450
  17,237
  18,065
  18,937
  19,854
  20,819
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.709
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
Average production assets, $m
  4,730
  5,137
  5,255
  5,390
  5,541
  5,709
  5,894
  6,095
  6,312
  6,546
  6,797
  7,066
  7,353
  7,658
  7,982
  8,327
  8,692
  9,078
  9,486
  9,918
  10,374
  10,855
  11,362
  11,896
  12,459
  13,053
  13,677
  14,334
  15,026
  15,754
  16,519
Working capital, $m
  -675
  -431
  -440
  -452
  -464
  -479
  -494
  -511
  -529
  -549
  -570
  -592
  -616
  -642
  -669
  -698
  -728
  -761
  -795
  -831
  -869
  -910
  -952
  -997
  -1,044
  -1,094
  -1,146
  -1,201
  -1,259
  -1,320
  -1,385
Total debt, $m
  3,274
  3,367
  3,483
  3,615
  3,764
  3,929
  4,110
  4,307
  4,520
  4,750
  4,997
  5,261
  5,542
  5,842
  6,161
  6,499
  6,857
  7,236
  7,637
  8,061
  8,508
  8,980
  9,478
  10,003
  10,556
  11,138
  11,751
  12,397
  13,076
  13,790
  14,542
Total liabilities, $m
  4,951
  5,043
  5,159
  5,291
  5,440
  5,605
  5,786
  5,983
  6,197
  6,426
  6,673
  6,937
  7,218
  7,518
  7,837
  8,175
  8,533
  8,912
  9,313
  9,737
  10,184
  10,656
  11,154
  11,679
  12,232
  12,814
  13,427
  14,073
  14,752
  15,466
  16,218
Total equity, $m
  1,401
  1,431
  1,464
  1,501
  1,543
  1,590
  1,642
  1,697
  1,758
  1,823
  1,893
  1,968
  2,048
  2,133
  2,223
  2,319
  2,421
  2,528
  2,642
  2,762
  2,889
  3,023
  3,164
  3,313
  3,470
  3,635
  3,809
  3,992
  4,185
  4,388
  4,601
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,352
  6,474
  6,623
  6,792
  6,983
  7,195
  7,428
  7,680
  7,955
  8,249
  8,566
  8,905
  9,266
  9,651
  10,060
  10,494
  10,954
  11,440
  11,955
  12,499
  13,073
  13,679
  14,318
  14,992
  15,702
  16,449
  17,236
  18,065
  18,937
  19,854
  20,819
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.337
  2.350
  2.380
  2.410
  2.440
  2.470
  2.500
  2.540
  2.570
  2.610
  2.640
  2.670
  2.710
  2.740
  2.770
  2.800
  2.830
  2.860
  2.890
  2.920
  2.940
  2.970
  3.000
  3.020
  3.040
  3.060
  3.080
  3.110
  3.120
  3.140
  3.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.152
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221
  0.221

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  57
  57
  57
  57
  57
  57
  56
  56
  56
  55
  55
  55
  54
  54
  53
  53
  52
  52
  51
  51
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  270
  555
  567
  580
  595
  612
  631
  651
  672
  696
  721
  707
  735
  766
  798
  833
  869
  908
  949
  992
  1,037
  1,085
  1,136
  1,190
  1,246
  1,305
  1,368
  1,433
  1,503
  1,575
  1,652
Funds from operations, $m
  598
  581
  593
  607
  622
  639
  658
  678
  700
  723
  748
  764
  792
  823
  855
  889
  926
  964
  1,005
  1,048
  1,093
  1,141
  1,191
  1,244
  1,300
  1,359
  1,421
  1,486
  1,555
  1,627
  1,703
Change in working capital, $m
  30
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Cash from operations, $m
  568
  589
  603
  618
  635
  653
  673
  695
  718
  743
  769
  786
  816
  848
  882
  918
  956
  996
  1,039
  1,084
  1,131
  1,181
  1,233
  1,289
  1,347
  1,408
  1,473
  1,541
  1,613
  1,688
  1,767
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -504
  -514
  -525
  -539
  -554
  -571
  -589
  -609
  -631
  -655
  -680
  -707
  -735
  -766
  -798
  -833
  -869
  -908
  -949
  -992
  -1,037
  -1,085
  -1,136
  -1,190
  -1,246
  -1,305
  -1,368
  -1,433
  -1,503
  -1,575
New CAPEX, $m
  -232
  -99
  -118
  -135
  -152
  -168
  -184
  -201
  -217
  -234
  -251
  -269
  -287
  -305
  -325
  -344
  -365
  -386
  -408
  -432
  -456
  -481
  -507
  -535
  -563
  -593
  -625
  -657
  -692
  -728
  -765
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -603
  -632
  -660
  -691
  -722
  -755
  -790
  -826
  -865
  -906
  -949
  -994
  -1,040
  -1,091
  -1,142
  -1,198
  -1,255
  -1,316
  -1,381
  -1,448
  -1,518
  -1,592
  -1,671
  -1,753
  -1,839
  -1,930
  -2,025
  -2,125
  -2,231
  -2,340
Free cash flow, $m
  450
  -13
  -29
  -42
  -56
  -69
  -82
  -95
  -109
  -123
  -137
  -162
  -177
  -192
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -259
  -277
  -296
  -316
  -337
  -359
  -382
  -406
  -431
  -457
  -484
  -513
  -543
  -574
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -360
  93
  116
  133
  149
  165
  181
  197
  213
  230
  247
  264
  282
  300
  319
  338
  358
  379
  401
  424
  447
  472
  498
  525
  553
  582
  613
  645
  679
  714
  751
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  4
  7
  11
  16
  20
  24
  29
  33
  38
  43
  18
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  58
  64
  71
  79
  86
  94
  103
  112
  121
  131
  141
  151
  162
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -518
  97
  123
  144
  165
  185
  205
  226
  246
  268
  290
  282
  305
  328
  352
  377
  403
  430
  459
  488
  518
  551
  584
  619
  656
  694
  734
  776
  820
  865
  913
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -72
  83
  94
  101
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  119
  127
  136
  144
  153
  162
  172
  181
  192
  202
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
  340
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -30
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  75
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  120
  127
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  49
  51
  48
  45
  42
  38
  34
  30
  27
  23
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.8
  99.5
  99.2
  98.8
  98.3
  97.7
  97.1
  96.4
  95.7
  95.4
  95.1
  94.7
  94.2
  93.6
  93.1
  92.4
  91.7
  91.0
  90.3
  89.5
  88.7
  87.8
  86.9
  86.1
  85.1
  84.2
  83.3
  82.3
  81.3

Avianca Holdings SA is a Panama-based company engaged, through its subsidiaries, in the provision of air transportation services for passengers and commercial purposes. The Company was originally established as a strategic alliance between Aerovias del Continente Americano SA (AVIANCA) and Grupo TACA Holdings Limited (GTH), and it mainly operates in North, Central and South America, the Caribbean and Europe. In addition, through codeshare agreements, the Company is active in the operation of other international passenger air routes. As of December 31, 2011, the Company owned such subsidiaries as Latin Airways Corporation and LifeMiles Corporation, among others. On December 28, 2012, the merger of subsidiaries Latin Airways Corporation, as absorbing company, with Synergy Ocean Air Colombia SAS and Soac 2 SAS was formalized. On June 18, 2013, the Company received the first out of 15 ATR 72-600, a turbo-propelled aircraft from ATR, a company engaged in regional aircraft.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Avianca Holdings ADR (AVH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 255
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 204.6%
Total Debt to Equity 233.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 0.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Equity 1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.7%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 6.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Net Profit Margin 0.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 43.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Payout Ratio 188.2%

AVH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AVH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4138 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Avianca Holdings ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Avianca Holdings ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AVH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for AVH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Avianca Holdings ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Avianca Holdings ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AVH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AVH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Avianca Holdings ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Avianca Holdings ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AVH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AVH are equal to 121.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Avianca Holdings ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AVH is equal to -10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1401 million for Avianca Holdings ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 661 million for Avianca Holdings ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Avianca Holdings ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.

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▶ Avianca CEO Says Kingsland Suit Has No Merit   [Aug-22-17 01:26PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ [$$] Avianca Halts Flights From Venezuela   [Jul-28-17 05:24PM  The Wall Street Journal]
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▶ ETFs with exposure to Avianca Holdings SA : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 02:54PM  Capital Cube]
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▶ PRESS DIGEST- Financial Times - March 28   [Mar-27-17 07:52PM  Reuters]
▶ [$$] Efromovich fires back over Avianca-United Continental deal   [Mar-03-17 04:13AM  at Financial Times]
▶ [$$] Avianca Shareholder Sues United Airlines Over Planned Partnership   [Mar-01-17 03:07PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Shareholder hits back at proposed Avianca-United tie-up   [Feb-28-17 08:21PM  at Financial Times]
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▶ [$$] Colombian Officials Say Crashed Plane Ran Out of Fuel   [Dec-01-16 12:56AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of AVH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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