Intrinsic value of Allied World Assurance Holdings - AWH

Previous Close

$49.24

  Intrinsic Value

$38.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$49.24

 
Intrinsic value

$38.06

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AWH.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AWH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.18
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,628
  2,688
  2,757
  2,835
  2,921
  3,015
  3,117
  3,229
  3,348
  3,477
  3,614
  3,761
  3,917
  4,083
  4,259
  4,446
  4,644
  4,853
  5,073
  5,306
  5,552
  5,812
  6,085
  6,373
  6,677
  6,996
  7,332
  7,686
  8,058
  8,450
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,459
  2,514
  2,578
  2,649
  2,728
  2,815
  2,910
  3,012
  3,122
  3,241
  3,328
  3,463
  3,607
  3,760
  3,922
  4,094
  4,276
  4,469
  4,672
  4,886
  5,113
  5,352
  5,604
  5,869
  6,148
  6,442
  6,752
  7,078
  7,421
  7,781
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,271
  2,459
  2,514
  2,578
  2,649
  2,728
  2,815
  2,910
  3,012
  3,122
  3,241
  3,328
  3,463
  3,607
  3,760
  3,922
  4,094
  4,276
  4,469
  4,672
  4,886
  5,113
  5,352
  5,604
  5,869
  6,148
  6,442
  6,752
  7,078
  7,421
  7,781
Operating income, $m
  306
  169
  174
  179
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  352
  367
  384
  402
  420
  439
  460
  482
  504
  528
  554
  580
  608
  638
  669
EBITDA, $m
  306
  219
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  612
  641
  672
  705
Interest expense (income), $m
  76
  58
  73
  89
  107
  128
  151
  176
  203
  233
  264
  299
  335
  374
  416
  460
  507
  556
  609
  664
  723
  785
  850
  919
  992
  1,068
  1,149
  1,234
  1,323
  1,417
  1,516
Earnings before tax, $m
  246
  111
  101
  90
  78
  64
  49
  32
  13
  -7
  -28
  -13
  -37
  -64
  -92
  -123
  -155
  -189
  -225
  -263
  -303
  -345
  -390
  -438
  -487
  -540
  -595
  -654
  -715
  -780
  -848
Tax expense, $m
  -9
  30
  27
  24
  21
  17
  13
  9
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  255
  81
  74
  66
  57
  47
  36
  23
  10
  -7
  -28
  -13
  -37
  -64
  -92
  -123
  -155
  -189
  -225
  -263
  -303
  -345
  -390
  -438
  -487
  -540
  -595
  -654
  -715
  -780
  -848

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,179
  13,474
  13,784
  14,139
  14,536
  14,977
  15,461
  15,987
  16,557
  17,171
  17,830
  18,535
  19,287
  20,088
  20,940
  21,843
  22,800
  23,813
  24,885
  26,017
  27,212
  28,474
  29,804
  31,206
  32,683
  34,239
  35,878
  37,602
  39,417
  41,325
  43,333
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,179
  13,474
  13,784
  14,139
  14,536
  14,977
  15,461
  15,987
  16,557
  17,171
  17,830
  18,535
  19,287
  20,088
  20,940
  21,843
  22,800
  23,813
  24,885
  26,017
  27,212
  28,474
  29,804
  31,206
  32,683
  34,239
  35,878
  37,602
  39,417
  41,325
  43,333
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
  0.195
Average production assets, $m
  111
  113
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  155
  162
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  331
  347
  363
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  816
  1,025
  1,252
  1,510
  1,801
  2,122
  2,475
  2,860
  3,276
  3,724
  4,205
  4,720
  5,269
  5,853
  6,475
  7,134
  7,833
  8,573
  9,355
  10,181
  11,054
  11,975
  12,946
  13,969
  15,048
  16,184
  17,380
  18,638
  19,963
  21,357
  22,822
Total liabilities, $m
  9,627
  9,836
  10,063
  10,321
  10,612
  10,933
  11,286
  11,671
  12,087
  12,535
  13,016
  13,531
  14,080
  14,664
  15,286
  15,945
  16,644
  17,384
  18,166
  18,992
  19,865
  20,786
  21,757
  22,780
  23,859
  24,995
  26,191
  27,449
  28,774
  30,168
  31,633
Total equity, $m
  3,552
  3,638
  3,722
  3,817
  3,925
  4,044
  4,174
  4,317
  4,470
  4,636
  4,814
  5,004
  5,208
  5,424
  5,654
  5,898
  6,156
  6,430
  6,719
  7,025
  7,347
  7,688
  8,047
  8,426
  8,825
  9,245
  9,687
  10,153
  10,642
  11,158
  11,700
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,179
  13,474
  13,785
  14,138
  14,537
  14,977
  15,460
  15,988
  16,557
  17,171
  17,830
  18,535
  19,288
  20,088
  20,940
  21,843
  22,800
  23,814
  24,885
  26,017
  27,212
  28,474
  29,804
  31,206
  32,684
  34,240
  35,878
  37,602
  39,416
  41,326
  43,333
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.230
  0.280
  0.340
  0.400
  0.460
  0.520
  0.590
  0.660
  0.730
  0.800
  0.870
  0.940
  1.010
  1.080
  1.150
  1.210
  1.270
  1.330
  1.390
  1.450
  1.500
  1.560
  1.610
  1.660
  1.710
  1.750
  1.790
  1.840
  1.880
  1.910
  1.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  255
  81
  74
  66
  57
  47
  36
  23
  10
  -7
  -28
  -13
  -37
  -64
  -92
  -123
  -155
  -189
  -225
  -263
  -303
  -345
  -390
  -438
  -487
  -540
  -595
  -654
  -715
  -780
  -848
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  50
  51
  51
  51
  52
  52
  52
  53
  53
  54
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
Funds from operations, $m
  509
  131
  124
  117
  108
  98
  88
  76
  63
  47
  26
  3
  -21
  -47
  -75
  -104
  -136
  -169
  -204
  -241
  -280
  -322
  -365
  -411
  -460
  -511
  -565
  -622
  -682
  -745
  -811
Change in working capital, $m
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  399
  131
  124
  117
  108
  98
  88
  76
  63
  47
  26
  3
  -21
  -47
  -75
  -104
  -136
  -169
  -204
  -241
  -280
  -322
  -365
  -411
  -460
  -511
  -565
  -622
  -682
  -745
  -811
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  463
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
Free cash flow, $m
  862
  118
  110
  102
  93
  83
  71
  58
  45
  28
  6
  -18
  -43
  -70
  -99
  -129
  -162
  -196
  -233
  -271
  -312
  -355
  -400
  -448
  -499
  -552
  -608
  -667
  -729
  -794
  -863
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -500
  209
  226
  259
  290
  322
  353
  384
  416
  448
  481
  515
  549
  585
  621
  659
  699
  740
  782
  826
  873
  921
  971
  1,024
  1,078
  1,136
  1,196
  1,259
  1,325
  1,394
  1,466
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -156
  5
  10
  30
  50
  72
  95
  119
  144
  172
  206
  203
  241
  280
  322
  367
  413
  462
  514
  568
  626
  686
  749
  816
  886
  960
  1,038
  1,119
  1,205
  1,295
  1,390
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -656
  214
  236
  289
  340
  394
  448
  503
  560
  620
  687
  718
  790
  865
  943
  1,026
  1,112
  1,202
  1,296
  1,394
  1,499
  1,607
  1,720
  1,840
  1,964
  2,096
  2,234
  2,378
  2,530
  2,689
  2,856
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  205
  333
  347
  391
  434
  476
  519
  562
  605
  648
  693
  700
  747
  795
  845
  896
  950
  1,006
  1,063
  1,124
  1,186
  1,252
  1,320
  1,392
  1,466
  1,544
  1,626
  1,711
  1,801
  1,895
  1,993
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -86
  -84
  -96
  -107
  -119
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -172
  -206
  -203
  -241
  -280
  -322
  -367
  -413
  -462
  -514
  -568
  -626
  -686
  -749
  -816
  -886
  -960
  -1,038
  -1,119
  -1,205
  -1,295
  -1,390
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  247
  263
  295
  326
  357
  388
  419
  451
  476
  487
  497
  506
  515
  523
  530
  537
  543
  549
  555
  561
  566
  571
  575
  580
  584
  588
  592
  596
  599
  603
Discount rate, %
 
  5.00
  5.25
  5.51
  5.79
  6.08
  6.38
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  235
  237
  251
  261
  266
  268
  266
  262
  251
  231
  210
  189
  168
  148
  129
  110
  93
  78
  64
  52
  41
  32
  25
  19
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.9
  99.7
  99.0
  97.9
  96.5
  94.6
  92.4
  89.9
  87.1
  84.0
  81.2
  78.1
  74.7
  71.2
  67.6
  63.9
  60.1
  56.4
  52.7
  49.1
  45.5
  42.1
  38.8
  35.7
  32.8
  30.0
  27.3
  24.9
  22.6
  20.5

Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG, through its subsidiaries, provides property, casualty, and specialty insurance and reinsurance solutions worldwide. It operates in three segments: North American Insurance, Global Markets Insurance, and Reinsurance. The company offers specialty liability products, including insurance products that insure specialty liability risks, such as professional liability, environmental liability, product liability, healthcare liability, and commercial general liability risks; professional liability products, including policies covering directors and officers, employment practices, fiduciary liability insurance, and mergers and acquisitions; errors and omissions liability policies for law firms, technology companies, insurance companies, insurance agents and brokers, and municipalities; and primary and excess liability, and other casualty coverages to the healthcare industry, as well as comprehensive insurance to contractors and their employees. It also provides general casualty insurance products that cover complex liability risks in industries, including construction, real estate, public entities, retailers, manufacturing, transportation, and finance and insurance services. In addition, the company offers property insurance products that focus direct coverage of physical property and business interruption coverage for commercial property risks; and employers and environmental liability insurance, and motor insurance. Further, it offers aviation products that cover airline, aerospace, and general aviation classes of business; marine products covering various types of goods in transit; and short and medium-term trade credit insurance products. Additionally, the company provides reinsurance products and services for professional liability lines, specialty casualty, property, accident and health, marine, aerospace, and crop risks. Allied World Assurance Company Holdings, AG was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Zug, Switzerland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Allied World Assurance Holdings (AWH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.8
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -87.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 23%
Total Debt to Equity 23%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Effective Tax Rate -3.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Payout Ratio 36.1%

AWH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AWH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2576 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Allied World Assurance Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Allied World Assurance Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AWH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5%, whose default value for AWH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Allied World Assurance Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Allied World Assurance Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AWH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AWH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for Allied World Assurance Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Allied World Assurance Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AWH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AWH are equal to 4.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Allied World Assurance Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AWH is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3552 million for Allied World Assurance Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.874 million for Allied World Assurance Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Allied World Assurance Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.3 billion.

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Stock chart of AWH Financial statements of AWH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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