Intrinsic value of Alexco Resource - AXU

Previous Close

$1.65

  Intrinsic Value

$0.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

Previous close

$1.65

 
Intrinsic value

$0.34

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of AXU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -27.27
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  8
  12
  17
  25
  34
  46
  60
  78
  98
  122
  150
  181
  215
  253
  295
  340
  388
  440
  495
  553
  615
  679
  747
  817
  890
  967
  1,046
  1,129
  1,215
  1,305
  1,397
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  12
  17
  25
  34
  46
  60
  78
  98
  122
  150
  181
  215
  253
  295
  340
  388
  440
  495
  553
  615
  679
  747
  817
  890
  967
  1,046
  1,129
  1,215
  1,305
  1,397
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  13
  17
  22
  30
  40
  52
  66
  84
  104
  128
  156
  188
  222
  260
  302
  347
  395
  448
  503
  561
  623
  687
  756
  826
  899
  976
  1,056
  1,139
  1,225
  1,315
  1,407
Operating income, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
EBITDA, $m
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  30
  35
  41
  47
  54
  61
  69
  76
  85
  93
  102
  112
  121
  131
  142
  153
  164
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  87
  106
  155
  219
  301
  405
  533
  687
  870
  1,081
  1,324
  1,598
  1,904
  2,241
  2,609
  3,008
  3,437
  3,896
  4,383
  4,898
  5,440
  6,010
  6,606
  7,230
  7,879
  8,556
  9,260
  9,993
  10,754
  11,545
  12,367
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  71
  106
  155
  219
  301
  405
  533
  687
  870
  1,081
  1,324
  1,598
  1,904
  2,241
  2,609
  3,008
  3,437
  3,896
  4,383
  4,898
  5,440
  6,010
  6,606
  7,230
  7,879
  8,556
  9,260
  9,993
  10,754
  11,545
  12,367
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.113
  0.113
  0.110
  0.114
  0.113
  0.114
  0.113
  0.114
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
  0.113
Average production assets, $m
  11
  17
  24
  34
  47
  63
  83
  107
  135
  168
  206
  248
  296
  348
  405
  467
  534
  605
  681
  761
  845
  934
  1,026
  1,123
  1,224
  1,329
  1,439
  1,553
  1,671
  1,794
  1,921
Working capital, $m
  17
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
Total debt, $m
  0
  10
  24
  42
  65
  94
  130
  174
  225
  285
  353
  431
  517
  612
  716
  828
  949
  1,079
  1,216
  1,361
  1,514
  1,675
  1,843
  2,019
  2,202
  2,393
  2,591
  2,798
  3,013
  3,236
  3,467
Total liabilities, $m
  20
  30
  44
  62
  85
  114
  150
  194
  245
  305
  373
  451
  537
  632
  736
  848
  969
  1,099
  1,236
  1,381
  1,534
  1,695
  1,863
  2,039
  2,222
  2,413
  2,611
  2,818
  3,033
  3,256
  3,487
Total equity, $m
  67
  76
  111
  157
  216
  291
  383
  493
  624
  776
  951
  1,147
  1,367
  1,609
  1,873
  2,160
  2,468
  2,797
  3,147
  3,517
  3,906
  4,315
  4,743
  5,191
  5,657
  6,143
  6,649
  7,175
  7,721
  8,289
  8,879
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  87
  106
  155
  219
  301
  405
  533
  687
  869
  1,081
  1,324
  1,598
  1,904
  2,241
  2,609
  3,008
  3,437
  3,896
  4,383
  4,898
  5,440
  6,010
  6,606
  7,230
  7,879
  8,556
  9,260
  9,993
  10,754
  11,545
  12,366
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.130
  0.210
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718
  0.718

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  163
  175
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -102
  -111
  -121
  -131
  -141
  -152
  -163
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -99
  -109
  -120
  -131
  -142
  -153
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -203
  -216
  -230
  -245
  -259
  -275
  -291
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -191
  -203
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -251
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  10
  14
  18
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  199
  206
  215
  223
  232
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  30
  40
  52
  66
  83
  101
  121
  143
  166
  191
  216
  241
  267
  293
  319
  344
  370
  395
  420
  445
  470
  495
  521
  546
  572
  599
  626
  654
  684
  714
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  40
  54
  70
  89
  112
  137
  164
  194
  226
  259
  293
  327
  362
  397
  432
  465
  499
  532
  565
  598
  631
  663
  697
  729
  763
  798
  832
  869
  907
  946
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  30
  41
  54
  70
  88
  108
  130
  154
  179
  205
  231
  258
  285
  311
  337
  362
  387
  411
  435
  458
  481
  504
  526
  549
  572
  595
  618
  643
  668
  694
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -30
  -40
  -52
  -66
  -83
  -101
  -121
  -143
  -166
  -191
  -216
  -241
  -267
  -293
  -319
  -344
  -370
  -395
  -420
  -445
  -470
  -495
  -521
  -546
  -572
  -599
  -626
  -654
  -684
  -714
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  15
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  17
  16
  15
  13
  11
  8
  6
  3
  -1
  -4
  -8
  -12
  -16
  -20
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  0
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  80.2
  65.8
  55.1
  46.9
  40.5
  35.4
  31.3
  27.9
  25.2
  22.8
  20.9
  19.2
  17.8
  16.5
  15.4
  14.5
  13.6
  12.9
  12.2
  11.6
  11.0
  10.5
  10.1
  9.7
  9.3
  8.9
  8.6
  8.3
  8.0
  7.7

Alexco Resource Corp. (Alexco) operates two businesses: a mining business, consisting of mineral exploration and mine development and operation in Canada, located in Yukon Territory, and through its Alexco Environmental Group (AEG), an environmental services business, providing consulting, remediation solutions and project management services in respect of environmental permitting and compliance and site remediation, in Canada and the United States. The Company's principal mining business activities are being carried out within the Keno Hill Silver District (KHSD) in Yukon Territory. The KHSD project is located near the village of Keno City, approximately 350 kilometers north of Whitehorse, Yukon. The KHSD property comprises the Flame & Moth, Bellekeno and Lucky Queen deposits, as well as the Onek, Bermingham properties and Elsa Tailings properties. It holds various other property interests within KHSD, including Silver King, Husky and McQuesten, and other properties.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Alexco Resource (AXU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -51.1
Price to Sales 19.2
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -51.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -21.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -27.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -24.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Return On Total Capital -4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.1%
Return On Equity -4.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
EBITDA Margin -25%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -90.2%
Operating Margin -62.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -117.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -37.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -106.4%
Net Profit Margin -37.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -97.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

AXU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AXU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Alexco Resource. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Alexco Resource. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AXU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AXU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Alexco Resource, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Alexco Resource.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AXU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AXU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Alexco Resource.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Alexco Resource. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AXU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AXU are equal to 137.5%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Alexco Resource operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AXU is equal to 12.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $67 million for Alexco Resource - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 98.057 million for Alexco Resource is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Alexco Resource at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
QRHC Quest Resource 2.50 0.15  str.sell
EEI Ecology&Enviro 10.80 12.44  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Alexco Resource reports 3Q loss   [Nov-06-17 05:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-03-17 10:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Alexco Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 08:30PM  CNW Group]
▶ Alexco Resource reports 2Q loss   [Aug-11-17 08:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexco Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-10-17 10:50PM  CNW Group]
▶ Alexco Closes C$9 Million Flow-Through Equity Financing   [May-30-17 09:27AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alexco Resource reports 1Q loss   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexco Resource reports 4Q loss   [Mar-30-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Alexco Reports Fourth Quarter and Year End 2016 Results   [Mar-29-17 10:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alexco Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Alexco Closed C$13 Million Non-Brokered Equity Financing   [May-17-16 07:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Alexco Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [06:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ ALEXCO RESOURCE CORP Financials   [01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Stocks to Watch for Tuesday 3/22/2016, If You Choose   [Mar-22-16 11:31AM  Accesswire]
▶ Alexco Announces C$2 Million Equity Financing   [Nov-19  05:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Breakout Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar   [Sep-17  07:13AM  at TheStreet]
▶ Corporate Document-Fact Sheet June 2015 for Alexco Resource Corp.   [Jul-09  01:24PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Alexco Reports First Quarter 2015 Financial Results   [May-13  05:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Annual Report for Alexco Resource Corp.   [Apr-10  03:00AM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of AXU
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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