Intrinsic value of Acuity Brands - AYI

Previous Close

$167.44

  Intrinsic Value

$137.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-18%

Previous close

$167.44

 
Intrinsic value

$137.39

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of AYI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.50
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  3,505
  3,631
  3,767
  3,913
  4,068
  4,234
  4,411
  4,599
  4,798
  5,009
  5,232
  5,468
  5,718
  5,981
  6,259
  6,552
  6,860
  7,186
  7,528
  7,889
  8,268
  8,667
  9,088
  9,529
  9,994
  10,483
  10,996
  11,536
  12,103
  12,700
  13,326
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,883
  2,991
  3,107
  3,230
  3,362
  3,502
  3,651
  3,810
  3,977
  4,154
  4,342
  4,540
  4,749
  4,969
  5,202
  5,447
  5,705
  5,977
  6,264
  6,565
  6,882
  7,216
  7,566
  7,935
  8,323
  8,731
  9,160
  9,610
  10,084
  10,581
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  212
  217
  223
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
  259
  265
  272
  278
  285
  292
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  348
  356
  365
  374
  384
  393
  403
  413
  424
  434
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,986
  3,095
  3,208
  3,330
  3,458
  3,596
  3,742
  3,897
  4,062
  4,236
  4,419
  4,614
  4,818
  5,034
  5,261
  5,502
  5,754
  6,020
  6,300
  6,595
  6,904
  7,230
  7,572
  7,931
  8,309
  8,707
  9,124
  9,563
  10,023
  10,508
  11,015
Operating income, $m
  519
  536
  559
  583
  610
  638
  669
  701
  736
  773
  813
  855
  899
  947
  997
  1,050
  1,106
  1,165
  1,228
  1,294
  1,364
  1,438
  1,516
  1,598
  1,684
  1,776
  1,872
  1,973
  2,080
  2,193
  2,311
EBITDA, $m
  594
  567
  591
  617
  645
  675
  707
  741
  778
  817
  858
  902
  949
  999
  1,051
  1,107
  1,166
  1,228
  1,293
  1,363
  1,436
  1,513
  1,595
  1,681
  1,771
  1,867
  1,967
  2,073
  2,185
  2,303
  2,427
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
Earnings before tax, $m
  493
  523
  544
  567
  592
  619
  647
  678
  710
  745
  782
  821
  863
  907
  954
  1,003
  1,056
  1,111
  1,170
  1,232
  1,297
  1,367
  1,439
  1,516
  1,598
  1,683
  1,773
  1,868
  1,968
  2,074
  2,185
Tax expense, $m
  171
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  369
  389
  409
  431
  454
  479
  504
  531
  560
  590
Net income, $m
  322
  382
  397
  414
  432
  452
  472
  495
  518
  544
  571
  599
  630
  662
  696
  732
  771
  811
  854
  899
  947
  998
  1,051
  1,107
  1,166
  1,229
  1,295
  1,364
  1,437
  1,514
  1,595

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  311
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,900
  2,682
  2,782
  2,890
  3,005
  3,127
  3,258
  3,396
  3,544
  3,699
  3,864
  4,039
  4,223
  4,417
  4,622
  4,839
  5,067
  5,307
  5,560
  5,826
  6,106
  6,401
  6,712
  7,038
  7,381
  7,742
  8,121
  8,520
  8,939
  9,379
  9,842
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,589
  2,682
  2,782
  2,890
  3,005
  3,127
  3,258
  3,396
  3,544
  3,699
  3,864
  4,039
  4,223
  4,417
  4,622
  4,839
  5,067
  5,307
  5,560
  5,826
  6,106
  6,401
  6,712
  7,038
  7,381
  7,742
  8,121
  8,520
  8,939
  9,379
  9,842
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
  1.354
Average production assets, $m
  325
  338
  350
  364
  378
  394
  410
  428
  446
  466
  487
  509
  532
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
  700
  734
  769
  806
  845
  886
  929
  975
  1,023
  1,073
  1,126
  1,181
  1,239
Working capital, $m
  645
  345
  358
  372
  386
  402
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  519
  543
  568
  595
  622
  652
  683
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
  905
  949
  996
  1,045
  1,096
  1,150
  1,206
  1,266
Total debt, $m
  357
  402
  450
  501
  556
  615
  677
  743
  813
  888
  966
  1,049
  1,137
  1,230
  1,328
  1,431
  1,540
  1,654
  1,775
  1,902
  2,036
  2,176
  2,324
  2,480
  2,644
  2,816
  2,997
  3,187
  3,387
  3,597
  3,818
Total liabilities, $m
  1,234
  1,279
  1,327
  1,378
  1,433
  1,492
  1,554
  1,620
  1,690
  1,765
  1,843
  1,926
  2,014
  2,107
  2,205
  2,308
  2,417
  2,531
  2,652
  2,779
  2,913
  3,053
  3,201
  3,357
  3,521
  3,693
  3,874
  4,064
  4,264
  4,474
  4,695
Total equity, $m
  1,666
  1,403
  1,455
  1,511
  1,571
  1,636
  1,704
  1,776
  1,853
  1,935
  2,021
  2,112
  2,209
  2,310
  2,418
  2,531
  2,650
  2,776
  2,908
  3,047
  3,194
  3,348
  3,510
  3,681
  3,860
  4,049
  4,247
  4,456
  4,675
  4,905
  5,147
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,900
  2,682
  2,782
  2,889
  3,004
  3,128
  3,258
  3,396
  3,543
  3,700
  3,864
  4,038
  4,223
  4,417
  4,623
  4,839
  5,067
  5,307
  5,560
  5,826
  6,107
  6,401
  6,711
  7,038
  7,381
  7,742
  8,121
  8,520
  8,939
  9,379
  9,842
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.214
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  322
  382
  397
  414
  432
  452
  472
  495
  518
  544
  571
  599
  630
  662
  696
  732
  771
  811
  854
  899
  947
  998
  1,051
  1,107
  1,166
  1,229
  1,295
  1,364
  1,437
  1,514
  1,595
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  75
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
Funds from operations, $m
  224
  414
  430
  448
  468
  488
  511
  535
  560
  587
  616
  647
  679
  714
  751
  789
  830
  874
  920
  968
  1,019
  1,073
  1,130
  1,190
  1,253
  1,320
  1,390
  1,464
  1,542
  1,624
  1,711
Change in working capital, $m
  -92
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Cash from operations, $m
  316
  402
  417
  434
  453
  473
  494
  517
  541
  567
  595
  624
  656
  689
  724
  762
  801
  843
  887
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,090
  1,148
  1,209
  1,273
  1,341
  1,413
  1,488
  1,568
  1,651
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
New CAPEX, $m
  -67
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
Free cash flow, $m
  267
  359
  373
  388
  404
  422
  441
  461
  483
  506
  531
  557
  585
  615
  646
  680
  715
  753
  793
  835
  879
  926
  976
  1,028
  1,083
  1,141
  1,202
  1,267
  1,335
  1,407
  1,483
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -355
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -348
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -79
  404
  421
  439
  459
  480
  503
  527
  553
  580
  609
  640
  673
  708
  744
  783
  824
  868
  913
  962
  1,013
  1,067
  1,123
  1,183
  1,247
  1,313
  1,383
  1,457
  1,535
  1,617
  1,704
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -189
  -198
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  311
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  667
  368
  383
  399
  416
  435
  455
  476
  499
  523
  549
  577
  606
  637
  670
  705
  742
  781
  822
  866
  912
  961
  1,013
  1,067
  1,124
  1,185
  1,249
  1,316
  1,387
  1,462
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  640
  337
  333
  329
  323
  315
  307
  297
  287
  274
  261
  246
  230
  214
  197
  179
  161
  144
  127
  110
  94
  80
  66
  54
  44
  35
  27
  20
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Acuity Brands, Inc. is a provider of lighting solutions for commercial, institutional, industrial, infrastructure and residential applications throughout North America and other international markets. The Company operates through North American segment. The Company offers a portfolio of indoor and outdoor lighting and building management solutions for commercial, institutional, industrial, infrastructure and residential applications. The portfolio of lighting solutions include lighting products utilizing fluorescent, light emitting diode (LED), organic LED (OLED), high intensity discharge, metal halide, and incandescent light sources to illuminate a number of applications. The solutions portfolio of the Company also includes modular wiring, LED drivers, sensors, glass and inverters sold primarily to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Its lighting and building management solutions are marketed under various brand names, including Lithonia Lighting and Holophane.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Acuity Brands (AYI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.8
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 21.4%
Total Debt to Equity 21.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Total Capital 15.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Return On Equity 19.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.7%
EBITDA Margin 16.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Operating Margin 14.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 7.1%

AYI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AYI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3505 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Acuity Brands. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Acuity Brands. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AYI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for AYI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Acuity Brands, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Acuity Brands.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AYI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $207 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AYI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Acuity Brands.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Acuity Brands. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AYI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AYI are equal to 9.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Acuity Brands operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AYI is equal to 9.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1666 million for Acuity Brands - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.076 million for Acuity Brands is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Acuity Brands at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mylan: S&P 500s Top Gainer on October 4   [10:40AM  Market Realist]
▶ Acuity Brands tops 4Q profit forecasts   [08:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Acuity Brands, Inc. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Acuity Brands, Inc. : July 4, 2017   [Jul-04-17 02:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Best-Performing Stocks in June   [09:02AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News for June 30, 2017   [10:43AM  Zacks]
▶ Acuity Brands beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Jun-29-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Hot Stock: Acuity Brands Jumps 10%   [04:27PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [12:07PM  Briefing.com]
▶ Acuity Brands, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-27-17 04:08PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Acuity Brands, Inc. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 01:11PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of AYI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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