Intrinsic value of Aircastle - AYR

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$23.80

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$23.80

 
Intrinsic value

$7.40

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as AYR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AYR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.62
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  773
  788
  807
  827
  851
  876
  905
  935
  969
  1,005
  1,043
  1,085
  1,129
  1,175
  1,225
  1,278
  1,334
  1,393
  1,456
  1,522
  1,592
  1,666
  1,744
  1,826
  1,912
  2,004
  2,099
  2,200
  2,306
  2,418
  2,536
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  509
  521
  534
  549
  566
  584
  604
  626
  649
  674
  701
  729
  759
  792
  826
  862
  900
  941
  983
  1,029
  1,076
  1,127
  1,180
  1,235
  1,294
  1,356
  1,421
  1,490
  1,562
  1,638
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  410
  509
  521
  534
  549
  566
  584
  604
  626
  649
  674
  701
  729
  759
  792
  826
  862
  900
  941
  983
  1,029
  1,076
  1,127
  1,180
  1,235
  1,294
  1,356
  1,421
  1,490
  1,562
  1,638
Operating income, $m
  363
  279
  286
  293
  301
  310
  320
  331
  343
  356
  369
  384
  400
  416
  434
  452
  472
  493
  515
  539
  564
  590
  617
  646
  677
  709
  743
  779
  816
  856
  898
EBITDA, $m
  668
  590
  603
  619
  636
  655
  676
  700
  724
  751
  780
  811
  844
  879
  916
  956
  998
  1,042
  1,089
  1,138
  1,191
  1,246
  1,304
  1,365
  1,430
  1,498
  1,570
  1,645
  1,725
  1,808
  1,896
Interest expense (income), $m
  225
  239
  244
  251
  259
  267
  277
  287
  299
  311
  324
  339
  354
  370
  388
  406
  426
  446
  468
  492
  516
  542
  569
  598
  629
  661
  694
  730
  767
  807
  848
Earnings before tax, $m
  157
  40
  41
  42
  43
  43
  43
  44
  44
  45
  45
  45
  46
  46
  46
  46
  47
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  48
  48
  48
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  50
Tax expense, $m
  13
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
Net income, $m
  151
  29
  30
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  456
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,245
  6,916
  7,075
  7,257
  7,461
  7,688
  7,936
  8,206
  8,499
  8,814
  9,152
  9,514
  9,900
  10,311
  10,748
  11,212
  11,703
  12,223
  12,773
  13,354
  13,968
  14,615
  15,298
  16,018
  16,776
  17,575
  18,416
  19,301
  20,232
  21,212
  22,243
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,789
  6,916
  7,075
  7,257
  7,461
  7,688
  7,936
  8,206
  8,499
  8,814
  9,152
  9,514
  9,900
  10,311
  10,748
  11,212
  11,703
  12,223
  12,773
  13,354
  13,968
  14,615
  15,298
  16,018
  16,776
  17,575
  18,416
  19,301
  20,232
  21,212
  22,243
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
  0.114
Average production assets, $m
  6,057
  6,178
  6,320
  6,483
  6,665
  6,867
  7,089
  7,330
  7,592
  7,873
  8,176
  8,499
  8,844
  9,211
  9,601
  10,015
  10,454
  10,919
  11,410
  11,929
  12,478
  13,056
  13,666
  14,309
  14,986
  15,700
  16,451
  17,241
  18,073
  18,949
  19,869
Working capital, $m
  0
  -465
  -476
  -488
  -502
  -517
  -534
  -552
  -572
  -593
  -616
  -640
  -666
  -694
  -723
  -754
  -787
  -822
  -859
  -898
  -939
  -983
  -1,029
  -1,077
  -1,128
  -1,182
  -1,239
  -1,298
  -1,361
  -1,427
  -1,496
Total debt, $m
  4,629
  4,607
  4,734
  4,879
  5,042
  5,222
  5,420
  5,635
  5,868
  6,120
  6,389
  6,678
  6,985
  7,313
  7,661
  8,031
  8,422
  8,837
  9,275
  9,738
  10,227
  10,743
  11,288
  11,861
  12,466
  13,102
  13,772
  14,478
  15,220
  16,001
  16,822
Total liabilities, $m
  5,410
  5,512
  5,639
  5,784
  5,947
  6,127
  6,325
  6,540
  6,773
  7,025
  7,294
  7,583
  7,890
  8,218
  8,566
  8,936
  9,327
  9,742
  10,180
  10,643
  11,132
  11,648
  12,193
  12,766
  13,371
  14,007
  14,677
  15,383
  16,125
  16,906
  17,727
Total equity, $m
  1,834
  1,404
  1,436
  1,473
  1,515
  1,561
  1,611
  1,666
  1,725
  1,789
  1,858
  1,931
  2,010
  2,093
  2,182
  2,276
  2,376
  2,481
  2,593
  2,711
  2,835
  2,967
  3,106
  3,252
  3,406
  3,568
  3,738
  3,918
  4,107
  4,306
  4,515
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,244
  6,916
  7,075
  7,257
  7,462
  7,688
  7,936
  8,206
  8,498
  8,814
  9,152
  9,514
  9,900
  10,311
  10,748
  11,212
  11,703
  12,223
  12,773
  13,354
  13,967
  14,615
  15,299
  16,018
  16,777
  17,575
  18,415
  19,301
  20,232
  21,212
  22,242
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.524
  3.280
  3.300
  3.310
  3.330
  3.350
  3.360
  3.380
  3.400
  3.420
  3.440
  3.460
  3.480
  3.490
  3.510
  3.530
  3.550
  3.560
  3.580
  3.590
  3.610
  3.620
  3.630
  3.650
  3.660
  3.670
  3.680
  3.700
  3.710
  3.720
  3.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.221
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  151
  29
  30
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  305
  310
  318
  326
  335
  345
  356
  368
  381
  396
  411
  427
  444
  463
  482
  503
  525
  549
  573
  599
  627
  656
  687
  719
  753
  789
  827
  866
  908
  952
  998
Funds from operations, $m
  467
  340
  348
  356
  366
  377
  388
  400
  414
  428
  444
  460
  478
  496
  516
  537
  559
  583
  608
  634
  662
  691
  722
  754
  788
  824
  862
  902
  944
  988
  1,035
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
Cash from operations, $m
  468
  539
  358
  369
  380
  392
  405
  419
  434
  449
  466
  484
  504
  524
  546
  568
  592
  618
  645
  673
  703
  734
  768
  803
  839
  878
  919
  962
  1,007
  1,054
  1,104
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -304
  -310
  -318
  -326
  -335
  -345
  -356
  -368
  -381
  -396
  -411
  -427
  -444
  -463
  -482
  -503
  -525
  -549
  -573
  -599
  -627
  -656
  -687
  -719
  -753
  -789
  -827
  -866
  -908
  -952
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,331
  -121
  -142
  -162
  -182
  -202
  -222
  -241
  -261
  -282
  -302
  -323
  -345
  -367
  -390
  -414
  -439
  -465
  -491
  -519
  -548
  -578
  -610
  -643
  -677
  -713
  -751
  -791
  -832
  -875
  -921
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -646
  -425
  -452
  -480
  -508
  -537
  -567
  -597
  -629
  -663
  -698
  -734
  -772
  -811
  -853
  -896
  -942
  -990
  -1,040
  -1,092
  -1,147
  -1,205
  -1,266
  -1,330
  -1,396
  -1,466
  -1,540
  -1,618
  -1,698
  -1,783
  -1,873
Free cash flow, $m
  -178
  113
  -94
  -111
  -128
  -145
  -162
  -179
  -196
  -214
  -231
  -250
  -268
  -288
  -308
  -328
  -350
  -372
  -395
  -419
  -445
  -471
  -498
  -527
  -557
  -588
  -621
  -656
  -692
  -729
  -769
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  465
  101
  127
  145
  163
  180
  198
  215
  233
  251
  270
  288
  308
  328
  348
  370
  392
  415
  438
  463
  489
  516
  544
  574
  604
  637
  670
  705
  742
  781
  821
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -37
  0
  0
  3
  7
  11
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  157
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  555
  101
  127
  148
  170
  191
  213
  234
  255
  277
  300
  323
  347
  371
  396
  423
  450
  478
  507
  537
  569
  602
  637
  674
  711
  751
  792
  835
  880
  928
  978
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  377
  215
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  44
  45
  46
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -54
  -26
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -209
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  456
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  645
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  585
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.3
  98.6
  97.7
  96.6
  95.4
  94.0
  92.4
  90.8
  89.1
  87.2
  85.3
  83.3
  81.3
  79.3
  77.2
  75.1
  73.0
  70.9
  68.8
  66.7
  64.7
  62.6
  60.6
  58.6
  56.7
  54.8
  52.9

Aircastle Limited, through its subsidiaries, acquires, leases, and sells commercial jet aircraft to airlines. The company also invests in other aviation assets. As of December 31, 2016, its aircraft portfolio comprised 206 aircraft leased to 71 lessees located in 36 countries. Aircastle Limited was founded in 2004 and is based in Stamford, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Aircastle (AYR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.4
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 245.7%
Total Debt to Equity 252.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 88.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.7%
Operating Margin 47%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Net Profit Margin 19.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Effective Tax Rate 8.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Payout Ratio 51%

AYR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AYR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $773 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Aircastle. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Aircastle. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AYR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for AYR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Aircastle, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Aircastle.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AYR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AYR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Aircastle.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Aircastle. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AYR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AYR are equal to 783.6%.

Life of production assets of 19.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Aircastle operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AYR is equal to -59%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1834 million for Aircastle - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 79.148 million for Aircastle is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Aircastle at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Aircastle misses 1Q profit forecasts   [08:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Aircastle Ltd. Value Analysis (NYSE:AYR) : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 04:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for April 10th   [Apr-10-17 10:14AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for March 22nd   [Mar-22-17 11:23AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Dividend Stocks To Buy - And 2 To Sell Now   [Feb-06-17 09:14AM  at Forbes]
▶ 4 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy This Winter   [09:20AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Aircastle Enhances Airline Coverage Team   [Dec-20-16 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Aircastle Limited (AYR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [10:04AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of AYR Financial statements of AYR Annual reports of AYR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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