Intrinsic value of AZZ - AZZ

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$55.55

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of AZZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.87
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  859
  921
  942
  966
  994
  1,024
  1,057
  1,093
  1,132
  1,174
  1,219
  1,267
  1,318
  1,373
  1,431
  1,493
  1,559
  1,628
  1,701
  1,778
  1,860
  1,946
  2,037
  2,133
  2,234
  2,340
  2,452
  2,570
  2,694
  2,825
  2,962
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  760
  777
  796
  818
  842
  868
  897
  927
  961
  996
  1,005
  1,046
  1,090
  1,136
  1,185
  1,237
  1,292
  1,350
  1,411
  1,476
  1,545
  1,617
  1,693
  1,773
  1,857
  1,946
  2,040
  2,138
  2,242
  2,351
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
Total operating expenses, $m
  761
  797
  815
  835
  858
  883
  910
  940
  971
  1,006
  1,042
  1,052
  1,094
  1,140
  1,187
  1,237
  1,290
  1,347
  1,406
  1,469
  1,535
  1,605
  1,679
  1,757
  1,838
  1,924
  2,014
  2,110
  2,210
  2,316
  2,427
Operating income, $m
  98
  124
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  168
  176
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  341
  359
  377
  396
  416
  438
  461
  484
  510
  536
EBITDA, $m
  148
  176
  180
  185
  190
  196
  202
  210
  218
  226
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  371
  389
  409
  429
  451
  474
  498
  524
  551
  579
  609
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
Earnings before tax, $m
  85
  111
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  144
  150
  158
  195
  203
  212
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  323
  339
  356
  374
  393
  413
  435
  457
  481
Tax expense, $m
  24
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
Net income, $m
  61
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  236
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  334
  351

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  978
  960
  983
  1,008
  1,036
  1,068
  1,102
  1,140
  1,180
  1,224
  1,271
  1,321
  1,375
  1,432
  1,493
  1,557
  1,625
  1,697
  1,774
  1,854
  1,940
  2,030
  2,124
  2,224
  2,330
  2,441
  2,557
  2,680
  2,810
  2,946
  3,089
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  967
  960
  983
  1,008
  1,036
  1,068
  1,102
  1,140
  1,180
  1,224
  1,271
  1,321
  1,375
  1,432
  1,493
  1,557
  1,625
  1,697
  1,774
  1,854
  1,940
  2,030
  2,124
  2,224
  2,330
  2,441
  2,557
  2,680
  2,810
  2,946
  3,089
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.888
  0.959
  0.958
  0.958
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.958
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
  0.959
Average production assets, $m
  264
  263
  269
  275
  283
  292
  301
  311
  323
  335
  347
  361
  376
  391
  408
  426
  444
  464
  485
  507
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  667
  699
  733
  768
  805
  844
Working capital, $m
  155
  146
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  201
  210
  218
  228
  237
  248
  259
  270
  283
  296
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  471
Total debt, $m
  271
  312
  323
  336
  350
  366
  384
  403
  423
  446
  469
  495
  522
  551
  582
  614
  649
  686
  724
  765
  808
  854
  902
  953
  1,006
  1,062
  1,122
  1,184
  1,249
  1,318
  1,391
Total liabilities, $m
  448
  487
  498
  511
  525
  541
  559
  578
  598
  621
  644
  670
  697
  726
  757
  789
  824
  861
  899
  940
  983
  1,029
  1,077
  1,128
  1,181
  1,237
  1,297
  1,359
  1,424
  1,493
  1,566
Total equity, $m
  530
  473
  484
  497
  511
  526
  543
  562
  582
  603
  627
  651
  678
  706
  736
  768
  801
  837
  874
  914
  956
  1,001
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,203
  1,261
  1,321
  1,385
  1,452
  1,523
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  978
  960
  982
  1,008
  1,036
  1,067
  1,102
  1,140
  1,180
  1,224
  1,271
  1,321
  1,375
  1,432
  1,493
  1,557
  1,625
  1,698
  1,773
  1,854
  1,939
  2,030
  2,124
  2,225
  2,330
  2,440
  2,558
  2,680
  2,809
  2,945
  3,089
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.511
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.537
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493
  0.493

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  236
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  334
  351
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  52
  52
  53
  54
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Funds from operations, $m
  96
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  173
  181
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  260
  272
  286
  300
  315
  331
  347
  365
  383
  403
  424
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  27
  133
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  166
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  364
  382
  402
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
New CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -63
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  0
  104
  105
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  150
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  279
  293
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -55
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -60
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -12
  9
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  138
  144
  149
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  315
  331
  348
  366
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  104
  106
  107
  110
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  123
  127
  133
  138
  144
  151
  157
  165
  172
  181
  189
  199
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  295
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  93
  89
  85
  80
  76
  71
  67
  62
  57
  49
  45
  41
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

AZZ incorporated provides galvanizing services, welding solutions, specialty electrical equipment, and engineered services to the power generation, transmission, distribution, and industrial markets. The company operates through two segments, Energy and Galvanizing Services. The Energy segment provides specialized products and services designed to support industrial, nuclear, and electrical applications. This segment offers custom switchgear, electrical enclosures, medium and high voltage bus ducts, explosion proof and hazardous duty lighting, nuclear safety-related equipment, and tubular products to multi-national companies, and small independent companies. It also supplies safety related equipment for the nuclear industry. This segment sells its products through manufacturersÂ’ representatives, distributors, agents, and internal sales force. The Galvanizing Services segment offers hot dip galvanizing services to the steel fabrication industry. This segment serves fabricators or manufacturers that provide services to the electrical and telecommunications, bridge and highway, petrochemical, and general industrial markets, as well as original equipment manufacturers. As of February 29, 2016, the company operated 43 galvanizing plants located in Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Illinois, Louisiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia in the United States; and Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, Canada. AZZ incorporated was founded in 1956 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  AZZ (AZZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.6
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 47.9%
Total Debt to Equity 51.1%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
EBITDA Margin 17.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Payout Ratio 27.9%

AZZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the AZZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $903 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by AZZ. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of AZZ. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our AZZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for AZZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of AZZ, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of AZZ.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of AZZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $36 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for AZZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for AZZ.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for AZZ. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the AZZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for AZZ are equal to 28.5%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in AZZ operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for AZZ is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $481 million for AZZ - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.103 million for AZZ is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of AZZ at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ AZZ, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:AZZ) : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 01:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ AZZ Inc. Announces New Powder Coating Facility in Texas   [May-31-17 06:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to AZZ, Inc. : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 03:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why AZZ Inc. Missed Guidance   [11:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ AZZ posts 4Q profit   [Apr-20-17 06:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Get Rid of AZZ (AZZ) Now?   [Jan-18-17 08:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Azz Inc. Reports Another Weak Quarter   [Jan-09-17 10:57AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On AZZ Inc (AZZ)   [Dec-12-16 10:50AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ AZZ Incorporated Feels the Heat From Oil and Gas   [Oct-06-16 11:13AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Salesforce, AZZ, and Gigamon Slumped Today   [Oct-05-16 09:06PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of AZZ Financial statements of AZZ Annual reports of AZZ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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